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2015 Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jun 11, 2015 23:08:35 GMT -5
Maybe it's because I've followed the draft so closely compared to years past, but I really like a number of the picks, especially in the lower half.
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Post by ajs1994 on Jun 11, 2015 23:35:55 GMT -5
I get that he was ranked there, I did see the rankings. The scouting reports just seemed a little underwhelming from what I read. Maybe Im expecting too much from a 4th round pick. I also thought Logan Allen seemed like a bit of a steal in the 8th round. I'm no expert I was just hoping someone might explain it better. Matheny has a fairly high floor, which has value. Sound approach and 45-50 tools across the board turns into a nice player. In addition, the Sox may like him more than some to stick in center, where that profile would really play up. I don't love the pick, but there is a basis for his ranking and subsequent slot number, even if I personally prefer guys with bigger tools and upside.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 11, 2015 23:45:28 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the Matheny pick at that slot. Thoughts? What about it? It was entirely in line with where he'd been ranked by the various publications. Then Kyri Washington would have been a 5th round pick also Chris. It's like a safe pick, more like a guy the Epstein FO would have taken in '04 when they were taking all College guys up top. It's no big deal, though do think you guys are going to be getting asked that same question multiple times over the next several days as more people look over the numbers of the guys Boston took and see Matheny's, then take a look at some of his scouting reports on other places.
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Post by boomer on Jun 12, 2015 6:33:14 GMT -5
What about it? It was entirely in line with where he'd been ranked by the various publications. Then Kyri Washington would have been a 5th round pick also Chris. It's like a safe pick, more like a guy the Epstein FO would have taken in '04 when they were taking all College guys up top. It's no big deal, though do think you guys are going to be getting asked that same question multiple times over the next several days as more people look over the numbers of the guys Boston took and see Matheny's, then take a look at some of his scouting reports on other places. I thought they might take Joe McCarthy from UVA who, because of a back injury, dropped from potential first round consideration to round 2-3 predictions. The Rays got him later in Round 5. McCarthy would have a higher ceiling if his back surgery won't be limiting but he was significantly more of an injury risk than the healthier Matheney with a higher floor, particularly because of his background and makeup.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 12, 2015 7:19:04 GMT -5
There are lots of guys in baseball who have very successful careers who would never win a buff body contest. See Wells, Pedrioia, Gwynn, etc. I remember when many people, including me, were upset the Red Sox drated Brian Johnson who was also considered to be a low ceiling guy. Johnson looks pretty good right now and he could probably do a better job right now than every Red Sox starter not named Rodriquez. There is something to be said for having a bunch of players with strong makeups who can contribute to the success of a team and organization.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 12, 2015 7:53:25 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 12, 2015 7:57:17 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 12, 2015 8:00:14 GMT -5
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2015 8:54:46 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2015 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history. (Although there have been some reports on Logan Allen's potential bonus). These have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 (7) Andrew Benintendi $3,000,000 3 (81) Austin Rei $700,000 4 (111) Tate Matheny $500,000 5 (141) Jagger Rusconi $384,000 6 (171) Travis Lakins $287,500 7 (201) Ben Taylor $10,000 8 (231) Logan Allen $725,000 9 (261) Tucker Tubbs $10,000 10 (291) Mitchell Gunsolus $25,000 After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 (321) Nick Hamilton $250,000 16 (471) Mark Brakeman $300,00018 (531) James Nelson $200,000 20 (591) Yomar Valentin $250,000 23 (681) Kyri Washington $300,00025 (741) Andrew Noviello $150,000 After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 (351) Kevin Kelleher 14 (411) Bobby Poyner13 (381) Matt Kent 15 (441) Jerry Downs 17 (501) Chad De La Guerra 19 (561) Logan Boyd 21 (621) Danny Zandona 22 (651) Max Watt 24 (711) Brad Stone 29 (861) Will Stillman 32 (951) Clate Schmidt 34 (1011) Nick Lovullo 35 (1041) Tyler Spoon 36 (1071) Trevor Kelley 37 (1101) Adam Lau Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,491,500 Red Sox Cap: $6,223,800 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,534,990 Super wicked early projected not to sign26 (771) Kevin Ginkel 27 (801) Saige Jenco28 (831) Steve Mangrum 30 (891) Jack Conley 31 (921) Nick Duron 33 (981) Cal Smith 38 (1131) CJ Ballard 39 (1161) Daniel Reyes 40 (1191) DJ Artis Updated predictions.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2015 9:14:14 GMT -5
I'm Barrington born/raised and my family still lives there. Don't know the Kelley's but it's a very small town in a very small state so somebody I know knows him I'm guessing. New favorite minor leaguer!
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Post by philarhody on Jun 12, 2015 9:42:36 GMT -5
I'm Barrington born/raised and my family still lives there. Don't know the Kelley's but it's a very small town in a very small state so somebody I know knows him I'm guessing. New favorite minor leaguer! Im also from Barrington. I was surprised when i didnt know him or his family.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2015 9:52:43 GMT -5
I'm class of 89 so I wasn't that surprised. I'm gittin old.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 12, 2015 9:52:46 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2015 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history. (Although there have been some reports on Logan Allen's potential bonus). These have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 (7) Andrew Benintendi $3,000,000 3 (81) Austin Rei $700,000 4 (111) Tate Matheny $500,000 5 (141) Jagger Rusconi $384,000 6 (171) Travis Lakins $287,500 7 (201) Ben Taylor $10,000 8 (231) Logan Allen $725,000 9 (261) Tucker Tubbs $10,000 10 (291) Mitchell Gunsolus $25,000 After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 (321) Nick Hamilton $250,000 16 (471) Mark Brakeman $300,00018 (531) James Nelson $200,000 20 (591) Yomar Valentin $250,000 23 (681) Kyri Washington $300,00025 (741) Andrew Noviello $150,000 After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 (351) Kevin Kelleher 14 (411) Bobby Poyner13 (381) Matt Kent 15 (441) Jerry Downs 17 (501) Chad De La Guerra 19 (561) Logan Boyd 21 (621) Danny Zandona 22 (651) Max Watt 24 (711) Brad Stone 29 (861) Will Stillman 32 (951) Clate Schmidt 34 (1011) Nick Lovullo 35 (1041) Tyler Spoon 36 (1071) Trevor Kelley 37 (1101) Adam Lau Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,491,500 Red Sox Cap: $6,223,800 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,534,990 Super wicked early projected not to sign26 (771) Kevin Ginkel 27 (801) Saige Jenco28 (831) Steve Mangrum 30 (891) Jack Conley 31 (921) Nick Duron 33 (981) Cal Smith 38 (1131) CJ Ballard 39 (1161) Daniel Reyes 40 (1191) DJ Artis Updated predictions. Q: What do red letters mean? Not signing?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2015 9:54:07 GMT -5
Highlights what changed, I believe
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 12, 2015 9:56:23 GMT -5
I'm Barrington born/raised and my family still lives there. Don't know the Kelley's but it's a very small town in a very small state so somebody I know knows him I'm guessing. New favorite minor leaguer! Im also from Barrington. I was surprised when i didnt know him or his family. Witness Protection Program?
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Post by curll on Jun 12, 2015 10:27:32 GMT -5
I get that he was ranked there, I did see the rankings. The scouting reports just seemed a little underwhelming from what I read. Maybe Im expecting too much from a 4th round pick. I also thought Logan Allen seemed like a bit of a steal in the 8th round. I'm no expert I was just hoping someone might explain it better. There's not much talent that makes an impact at the ML level past the first two rounds, generally speaking. Here's a half-finished vizualization of that: daigofuji.github.io/draft-war-visualization/Tate is a good snag in the 4th, because he was picked at the rough scouting ranking, he's got experience around the ML clubhouse, and cares about baseball. I know intangibles are "evil", but a solid player with advanced knowledge of the strikezone, and advanced understanding of the baseball season/grind is useful. He may not be an All-Star, but he's signable, knowledgeable, and a good organizational addition. Allen was a nice pick, if he signs. He only fell because of his strong commitment, so he'll either cost above-slot or go to college, hence the look of a "steal".
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 12, 2015 11:23:00 GMT -5
Baseball America ,discusses every teams draft and around the 19:00 mark they hit on the Sox. They basically loved it. From what. I understand when they picked Benintendi basically he could end up the best player or hitter in the draft by far or there taking a chance basically from limited production. They way they explained it I at peace with the pick that's all I can ask. They love the kid and pick and are trusting there scouts. If there was more baseball production he might not of been there at 7.
Also touch on the catcher who they believe is the best all around college catcher. Great value. Also the kid at 8 (Rei and Allen)They love what they did after ten they feel the Sox have back up plans if they can't sign there first options. They mention Brackman,Valentin,Washington , and Jenco great picks. It made me feel good. These kids are not organizational guys. There words.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 12, 2015 11:48:37 GMT -5
Then Kyri Washington would have been a 5th round pick also Chris. It's like a safe pick, more like a guy the Epstein FO would have taken in '04 when they were taking all College guys up top. It's no big deal, though do think you guys are going to be getting asked that same question multiple times over the next several days as more people look over the numbers of the guys Boston took and see Matheny's, then take a look at some of his scouting reports on other places. I thought they might take Joe McCarthy from UVA who, because of a back injury, dropped from potential first round consideration to round 2-3 predictions. The Rays got him later in Round 5. McCarthy would have a higher ceiling if his back surgery won't be limiting but he was significantly more of an injury risk than the healthier Matheney with a higher floor, particularly because of his background and makeup. This whole conversation reminds me of the Zack Effin vs. Brian Johnson debate. I was in favor of Effin, and I haven't looked him up, but it looks like Johnson's in the lead
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2015 13:28:59 GMT -5
I am amazed at the scouting that is being done and the ranking of players, as many as 500. Considering the huge range of quality and competition among school systems and college/university conferences, it is an incredible task to try to differentiate among players with similar stats and performances.
Even more, there is much going on in amateur ball, the traveling teams of young kids and teenagers that are augmenting the development of players. I have two grand nephews who live in the Buffalo area and both are baseball phenoms. They travel all over the East competing in various tournaments and they aren't in high school yet. During the winter they are hitting and throwing in indoor facilities. So even though it is a cold weather climate, they are playing an enormous amount of baseball and developing skills much earlier than it was possible to do when I was a kid.
I am finding it harder to assess drafts now than in the past when, for the most part, the best players were gone very early. Now because of the ridiculous structure of the draft, and its financial constraints, there probably are better players - at least players with higher ceilings - being drafted after the 10th round than those drafted between the third or fourth and tenth rounds.
Most teams seem to be following the same strategies - of getting the best player available in the first couple of rounds, but then drafting the college players with less leverage and who are likely to sign for well under slot, with maybe one or two exceptions. Then after the 10th round, the high ceiling high school kids who aren't yet superstars start getting drafted.
I do not understand the competitive balance picks. How does St. Louis get one?
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Post by Steve Henley on Jun 12, 2015 14:24:13 GMT -5
I'm class of 89 so I wasn't that surprised. I'm gittin old. He went to high school in North Carolina.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2015 14:32:49 GMT -5
I get that he was ranked there, I did see the rankings. The scouting reports just seemed a little underwhelming from what I read. Maybe Im expecting too much from a 4th round pick. I also thought Logan Allen seemed like a bit of a steal in the 8th round. I'm no expert I was just hoping someone might explain it better. There's not much talent that makes an impact at the ML level past the first two rounds, generally speaking. Here's a half-finished vizualization of that: daigofuji.github.io/draft-war-visualization/Tate is a good snag in the 4th, because he was picked at the rough scouting ranking, he's got experience around the ML clubhouse, and cares about baseball. I know intangibles are "evil", but a solid player with advanced knowledge of the strikezone, and advanced understanding of the baseball season/grind is useful. He may not be an All-Star, but he's signable, knowledgeable, and a good organizational addition. Allen was a nice pick, if he signs. He only fell because of his strong commitment, so he'll either cost above-slot or go to college, hence the look of a "steal". Yeah, you're expecting way too much out of the fourth round, especially in a crappy draft. I think another thing cognitively that could be coming into play (I've noticed this being the case for me), is that the lack of a second-round pick means you (royal you, not you specifically) tend to look at Rei the way you would a second-round pick, Matheny as a third-round pick, etc. Heck, last year and in 2012 they'd drafted two more guys before their third-rounder because of comp picks. Honestly, once you get out of the first couple of rounds, it's all a combination of the team's scouting operation and dumb luck. And also: whoa, hi Curll.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2015 14:39:14 GMT -5
I'm class of 89 so I wasn't that surprised. I'm gittin old. He went to high school in North Carolina. I'm class of 89 and live in NC.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2015 14:47:14 GMT -5
I'm class of 89 so I wasn't that surprised. I'm gittin old. He went to high school in North Carolina. That would explain it. I'm still going to count it as a Barrington guy making good
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Post by curll on Jun 12, 2015 15:15:10 GMT -5
And also: whoa, hi Curll.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2015 17:19:23 GMT -5
Sign Kevin Ginkle at all costs. His name rhymes with Tinkle.
I'd be a terrible talent evaluator.
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