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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 15, 2015 8:07:28 GMT -5
6/15 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 4-6 5.26) vs. Braves (RHP Williams Perez 2-0 2.70) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/ESPN/WEEI6/16 Red Sox (LHP Wade Miley 5-6 5.07) vs. Braves (RHP Julio Teheran 4-2 4.78) 4:05 pm ET, NESN/ESPN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 15, 2015 8:26:37 GMT -5
Sweep
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 15, 2015 8:32:10 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 15, 2015 10:47:17 GMT -5
Hopefully life is like a movie and Mookie's injury turns him into an amazing player. We could use one of those.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 15, 2015 11:04:06 GMT -5
Mookie IS an amazing player.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 15, 2015 11:18:44 GMT -5
Mookie IS an amazing player. Not yet |
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 15, 2015 13:39:28 GMT -5
Does anyone else expect to see Hembree sent down and Masterson called up?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2015 13:47:47 GMT -5
Does anyone else expect to see Hembree sent down and Masterson called up? Masterson is starting in Pawtucket tomorrow, according to Farrell yesterday. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 15, 2015 16:01:23 GMT -5
The lineup is in. I'm guaranteeing a win.
Pedroia 2B, Holt RF, Ramirez LF, Ortiz DH, Bogaerts SS, Sandoval 3B, Napoli 1B, Betts CF, Leon C, RHP Porcello.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2015 16:01:29 GMT -5
At this point, I think we can say that JBJ performance last year is better than the one Ramirez is having.
Tthat's how bad he is.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2015 16:09:48 GMT -5
The lineup is in. I'm guaranteeing a win. Pedroia 2B, Holt RF, Ramirez LF, Ortiz DH, Bogaerts SS, Sandoval 3B, Napoli 1B, Betts CF, Leon C, RHP Porcello. Why are they keeping Castillo out of the lineup? Guy needs reps at least to see what we've got in him. |
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 15, 2015 16:36:29 GMT -5
At this point, I think we can say that JBJ performance last year is better than the one Ramirez is having. Tthat's how bad he is. C'mon. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2015 16:42:31 GMT -5
At this point, I think we can say that JBJ performance last year is better than the one Ramirez is having. Tthat's how bad he is. C'mon. That was my initial reaction, but when you think about it, compare "worst hitter in baseball/one of the best fielders in baseball" with "ok hitter (the sum of his season so far, combining the slump with his hot start)/worst fielder/second-worst baserunner in baseball," and he actually sort of has a point if you're only talking about his year-to-date. That said, that's unlikely to continue. .339/.385/.525 since May 29. |
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2015 16:52:45 GMT -5
'Zactly Chris! That's what I meant.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2015 16:57:22 GMT -5
That was my initial reaction, but when you think about it, compare "worst hitter in baseball/one of the best fielders in baseball" with "ok hitter (the sum of his season so far, combining the slump with his hot start)/worst fielder/second-worst baserunner in baseball," and he actually sort of has a point if you're only talking about his year-to-date. That said, that's unlikely to continue. .339/.385/.525 since May 29. I mean, isn't this kind of why WAR is useful, because it allows you to compare stuff like this on an apples-to-apples basis? Bradley 2014: 0.5 fWAR (prorated 0.7 fWAR per 600 PAs) 0.7 rWAR (prorated 1.0 rWAR per 600 PAs) Ramirez 2015: -0.4 fWAR (prorated -1.0 fWAR per 600 PAs) -0.4 rWAR (prorated -1.0 rWAR per 600 PAs) Q.E.D. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 15, 2015 16:57:19 GMT -5
I guess the idea of the 9th place hitter being a second leadoff man is out of date.
Betts 9th makes sense to me.
Leon will clog the base paths ahead of DP and Holt ... except Leon won't reach base.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2015 17:04:26 GMT -5
I guess the idea of the 9th place hitter being a second leadoff man is out of date. Yup. |
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2015 17:19:55 GMT -5
I guess the idea of the 9th place hitter being a second leadoff man is out of date. Betts 9th makes sense to me. Leon will clog the base paths ahead of DP and Holt ... except Leon won't reach base. People like to ignore the fact that intermediate hitters may well make outs. Leon single, Betts K, Pedroia single... basepaths clogged. Leon walks, Betts sac fly, Pedroia walks... basepaths clogged. And so on. "Clogging the basepaths" is generally a pretty poor line of reasoning. Even if you do get your horror combination (Leon at 2nd, Pedroia/Holt at 1st), how many times does it really matter? Is Leon going to not score on a hit where Pedroia/Holt could go 1st to 3rd? Where exactly does the ball have to be hit for that to happen? The real reason to have a better player bat 9th is so they can get on base when leading off the inning. It's about OBP, not speed. Whether this is worth giving the better hitter less PAs is generally unclear and in any case won't make any sort of substantial difference. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 17:34:51 GMT -5
The ninth hitter always has fewer at bats than the eighth batter and thus fewer opportunities to get on base. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint to put at ninth a better hitter than the eighth hitter.
To amplify: Each batter in the batting order has approximately 17 fewer at bats over the course of a season than the batter preceding him. Thus, there is no such thing as a second leadoff batter. The ninth position will come to bat about 116 fewer times than the leadoff position, and about 17 fewer times than the 8th position.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2015 18:14:31 GMT -5
Having Hanley and Gomes playing both LF should be funny  |
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2015 18:46:12 GMT -5
The ninth hitter always has fewer at bats than the eighth batter and thus fewer opportunities to get on base. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint to put at ninth a better hitter than the eighth hitter. To amplify: Each batter in the batting order has approximately 17 fewer at bats over the course of a season than the batter preceding him. Thus, there is no such thing as a second leadoff batter. The ninth position will come to bat about 116 fewer times than the leadoff position, and about 17 fewer times than the 8th position. The idea is that you get more out of those fewer opportunities to get on base due to the better following hitters. Look, I'm sorry that there are mistakes in your book from the 60's, but that's been known and corrected since 10 years at least. You need to get over it. |
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2015 18:54:07 GMT -5
Sox with men on base tonight:
3 GIDP
0 Anything else
Why am I watching this?!?
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 15, 2015 18:58:41 GMT -5
I'm someone who has loved numbers since I was 3. What was a love for the numbers on the back of baseball cards became an obsession with sabermetrics and baseball statistics in general. I love the statistical analyses guys like mgoetze, FTHW, Eric, and the mods bring to this board. With that being said, I continue to disagree about bunting basically being a sin. I'm so pro sac-bunt. I don't care if it decreases the probability of winning by a slight bit. This offense sucks right now, and with Sandy Leon up with a runner on 1st and less than two outs, I'll take the sac-bunt EVERY SINGLE TIME. My god that double play was so unbelievably predictable.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2015 19:05:53 GMT -5
Hey, I would have said, against a team with Jonny Gomes and A.J. Pierzynski in the lineup, one run should be enough, so go ahead and use the sac bunt. But apparently...
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 15, 2015 19:10:25 GMT -5
Remember how in the offseason I wrote those posts about Porcello having a massively worse K%-BB% with men on base than with the bases empty? Well, here's the data for the season to date...
Bases empty: 17.4%
Men on base: 6.4%
If the Red Sox thought they could fix this ... they may have been wrong.
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