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6/15-6/16 Red Sox vs. Braves Series Thread
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Post by chud on Jun 16, 2015 5:06:22 GMT -5
Oh and Hanley's defense has been so bad in so many ways. What a piss poor effort here. Runners on 1st and 3rd w/ JBJ there, and likely Castillo/Mookie. If he's not going to produce with the bat, there's no reason to have JBJ sit in AAA. Trust me, i know Hanley's body language comes across as "I don't care"...but if you look close at that video even Panda is directing the throw to 2nd...and with one out, and little chance of throwing the runner out due to him having to move to his left to field the ball (i.e. away from his throwing angle to home plate), the smart play is to throw to second to keep the double play in order...if he threw home from that angle the runner scores and you have a man on second...I wish i saw more fire from Ramirez too, but we have to be realistic in the things we attack him for...His helmet flying off w/ every swing in April when he hit 10hrs was funny, now that we're all upset with this team he embodies all of the problems...the truth is probably somewhere in between although i also can't believe how bad he's been in the field just not necessarily on that play
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 16, 2015 5:23:57 GMT -5
Hanley's, Pablo's, Papi's, Napoli's, Nava's and Castillo's combined fWAR: -1.7
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2015 6:41:36 GMT -5
"Clogging the bases" is just Leon being unable to score from 2nd on Ortiz's 2-out single. It is a poor phrase. How, then, does it matter that the oh-so-speedy Pedroia and Holt were between them? Either he can score from 2nd or he can't, that is part of his skillset, but the argument that this should have any bearing on where he is in the lineup makes no sense. How often does the following two things happen? 1) Sandy Leon gets on base. 2) Sandy Leon gets to 2nd base. 3) Someone gets a hit when Sandy Leon is on 2nd base. I'd guess the difference between batting Sandy Leon 8th and 9th over the course of an entire career might be less than 1 run.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 16, 2015 6:58:41 GMT -5
Don't kid yourself, wins continue to be looked upon as a quality stat, maybe the most quality stat, and, furthermore, the correlation between pitcher wins and pitcher quality, ie, the War's, remains remarkable. Put down your calculator, son, the game ain't that hard. Datamine to your hearts delight but know this, 9 out of 10 times wins and era will prove the pitchers equivalent to whatever other stat suits your fancy. And Porcello blows. I'm hardly a statistical genius around here, but give it a rest with the W/L records for pithers being a quality stat. That's ridiculous. It doesn't tell you that much about the quality of the pitcher. It speaks just as much to the run support he gets or the bullpen that hangs on to his lead, but has nothing to do with how good he is. I might be a dinosaur, but you have to get into the 21st century. There are plenty of stats out there to show the Red Sox pitching/defense is lousy. W/L record of the individual pitchers wouldn't be that way.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2015 7:32:17 GMT -5
I remember figuring out that wins/losses was a stupid stat in the 80s when I was in my early teens, after watching average pitchers win 20 games and winning the Cy Young over pitchers who would continually never get run support.
1987 Nolan Ryan was a good example - he was 8-16 with a 64 FIP-, good for 6.4 fWAR.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2015 8:33:14 GMT -5
What's going on? Yes, it hit his hand rather than the bat... but aren't you supposed to try and get out of the way if you want to be awarded 1st base? No, you just can't lean into it. You can stay completely still if you want.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2015 8:34:33 GMT -5
I was curious and looked into Porcello's splits a little bit more. In the first time through the lineup, batters are triple slashing .216/.252/.353 But in the second time through the order, they're putting up a .313/.364/.505 Then it goes to a slightly more respectable .291/.344/.465 for the third time. His strikeout rate is also 3x higher when facing batters for the first time in a game. I've never really looked at this stat much so I don't know how it compares to other pitchers and he's only got about 100 PA for each category, but that's pretty significant. I wonder if it's a pitch selection thing or if his stuff isn't great when hitters get to see more pitches. Guys like Kelly and Clay have the opposite problem. And think about it - if the pitcher is facing the order a third time, he's probably pitching well, so there's a selection bias there.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jun 16, 2015 8:59:37 GMT -5
Don't kid yourself, wins continue to be looked upon as a quality stat, maybe the most quality stat, and, furthermore, the correlation between pitcher wins and pitcher quality, ie, the War's, remains remarkable. Put down your calculator, son, the game ain't that hard. Datamine to your hearts delight but know this, 9 out of 10 times wins and era will prove the pitchers equivalent to whatever other stat suits your fancy. And Porcello blows. I'm hardly a statistical genius around here, but give it a rest with the W/L records for pithers being a quality stat. That's ridiculous. It doesn't tell you that much about the quality of the pitcher. It speaks just as much to the run support he gets or the bullpen that hangs on to his lead, but has nothing to do with how good he is. I might be a dinosaur, but you have to get into the 21st century. There are plenty of stats out there to show the Red Sox pitching/defense is lousy. W/L record of the individual pitchers wouldn't be that way. Yet everything I wrote there is accurate: 1) pitcher wins remains a highly regarded stat 2) They generally correlate well with quality. But I'm not an uneducated dinosaur either. I'm well aware of better stats so my talking about wins is mostly tongue in cheek aimed at those who look at a guy like, say, Porcello with his 4-7 record and 5+ era, but also 3.5 so/w, and claim 'hey, this guy's pretty darn good! He's not. He's never been. Based on his career, he likely never will be.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2015 9:16:12 GMT -5
We're half a game back of the no. 3 overall pick and gaining on the Brewers at no. 2.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 16, 2015 9:30:22 GMT -5
We're half a game back of the no. 3 overall pick and gaining on the Brewers at no. 2. It's always good to have a goal. We can probably reach it if we deal Buchholz.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2015 9:30:24 GMT -5
What's going on? Yes, it hit his hand rather than the bat... but aren't you supposed to try and get out of the way if you want to be awarded 1st base? No, you just can't lean into it. You can stay completely still if you want. Sadly, my last year of organized ball, I became somewhat of an expert in this because the game was getting beyond my skill set (Jobu couldn't hit the slider). The "right" way to get hit (if you're not bouncing it off of some body armor, which still stings) is to crowd the plate then turn away from the inevitable inside pitch but actually keep your body in the same plane. Then you (hopefully) catch it in the lats or the hips/butt and look like you were trying to get out of the way/not bail in case it was a breaking ball. And then you steal 2nd.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 16, 2015 9:49:03 GMT -5
What's going on? Yes, it hit his hand rather than the bat... but aren't you supposed to try and get out of the way if you want to be awarded 1st base? No, you just can't lean into it. You can stay completely still if you want. The rules say you have to try to avoid being hit. Rarely called , but it was yesterday in the Arkansas/ Miami game.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 16, 2015 11:18:43 GMT -5
No, you just can't lean into it. You can stay completely still if you want. The rules say you have to try to avoid being hit. Rarely called , but it was yesterday in the Arkansas/ Miami game. NCAA and MLB have the same rules?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 16, 2015 11:31:26 GMT -5
Resting Pedey today. Giving Hanley another day off.
Holt 2B, Betts CF, Ortiz DH, Bogaerts SS, Sandoval 3B, Napoli 1B, De Aza LF, Swihart C, Castillo RF, Miley LHP.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2015 11:33:08 GMT -5
Anyone else fed up with the wider and deeper strike zone without an explanation? MLB could end this tonight if they wanted by demanding the umpires call the zone that's in the rulebook. My question - why don't they, especially since it's the same league that's been lamenting the lack of offense? I'm guessing it's part of their B.S. quicken the games initiatives but it's just a joke. Imagine if some NFL linesmen started calling 1st downs based on 11 yards gained rather than 10, just because "that's my first down zone."
But I want to know - WHO ORDERED THE CODE RED!?!
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 16, 2015 11:47:45 GMT -5
The radio broadcasters believe the strike zone expansion is due to the electronic strike zone system that tracks every pitch. It is being used in the umpire schools to train new umpires. They claim that the younger umpires - and apparently there has been quite a turnover of umpires recently - primarily are the ones calling the larger strike zone. The veteran umpires apparently are not.
If what they say is true, then it is not a MLB directive that has expanded the strike zones, it is the training new umpires are getting that measures the strike zone from it very edges, with any part of the ball touching an edge considered a strike.
That alone could account for the below the kneecap strikes being called and for some of the wider ones.
Watching the game yesterday with the strike zone superimposed there were many strikes called that just touched the edges. I only saw one that was truly a ball.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2015 11:53:16 GMT -5
Quite a few non-strikes were called as strikes. Not that the typical zone lines are not actually in the strike zone. It's absolutely unfair that LHH have to cover an extra 4-6 inches on the outside part of the plate. And that's not even a badly called game, relatively speaking to a lot of others this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2015 12:03:49 GMT -5
No, you just can't lean into it. You can stay completely still if you want. The rules say you have to try to avoid being hit. Rarely called , but it was yesterday in the Arkansas/ Miami game. I guess so. I'm apparently rusty as hell. Now that I look at the rule, I've definitely called it too.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 16, 2015 12:10:35 GMT -5
Hanley's, Pablo's, Papi's, Napoli's, Nava's and Castillo's combined fWAR: -1.7 Last year: 14.6. Projecting your numbers for a full season: -4.2. So only a difference of 18.8 wins over a full season. So it's kind of impressive the team on pace for 65 wins at this point. Overachievers.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 16, 2015 12:50:40 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 19m19 minutes ago Pedroia sitting w/ left knee soreness from recent collision turning pivot at 2b. 'Strong recommendation of the medical staff' for a day off.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 17m17 minutes ago Hanley 'aggravated his mid-back' on a swing and needs a day off. Hanigan could start a rehab assignment after the upcoming road trip.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Jun 16, 2015 13:00:05 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 19m19 minutes ago Pedroia sitting w/ left knee soreness from recent collision turning pivot at 2b. 'Strong recommendation of the medical staff' for a day off. Alex Speier @alexspeier 17m17 minutes ago Hanley 'aggravated his mid-back' on a swing and needs a day off. Hanigan could start a rehab assignment after the upcoming road trip. "Tanking" - Mazz
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2015 13:25:29 GMT -5
Quite a few non-strikes were called as strikes. Not that the typical zone lines are not actually in the strike zone. It's absolutely unfair that LHH have to cover an extra 4-6 inches on the outside part of the plate. And that's not even a badly called game, relatively speaking to a lot of others this year. Someone here posted a graphic like that a little while back that showed all the pitches from last year and this year and there were a LOT called strikes that were too far east, west and south of the zone. As for umpire training school, don't get me started. As I understand it, MLB with its infinite dollars does not even run these schools. If they did, perhaps they would immediately ban umpires from changing their body position from side to side depending on whether it is a LHB or RHB, bring back the big chest protectors and line up umpires directly behind the catcher. Also, baseball could easily install a system like tennis to tell if the ball is going outside the black. That would at least narrow it back so that we don't see balls going over the batters' box lines being called strikes on a nightly basis. But bottom line: If umpires are coming into the league with bad zones it should be corrected. If the league doesn't want this they should stop it. Period. Or replace plate umpires with machines and just use the humans for safe/out fair/foul call, reviewed by replay (or cover the lines with the same technology as tennis, as well).
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Post by raftsox on Jun 16, 2015 13:41:36 GMT -5
Yet everything I wrote there is accurate: 1) pitcher wins remains a highly regarded stat 2) They generally correlate well with quality. But I'm not an uneducated dinosaur either. I'm well aware of better stats so my talking about wins is mostly tongue in cheek aimed at those who look at a guy like, say, Porcello with his 4-7 record and 5+ era, but also 3.5 so/w, and claim 'hey, this guy's pretty darn good! He's not. He's never been. Based on his career, he likely never will be. I don't see anywhere outside of Boston.com or ESPN where pitcher wins are highly regarded. I at least wouldn't take either of those places as, well anything, but more specifically as a place to get baseball information from. And, regarding Porcello: no one here claimed he was an "ace" or anything more than a solid pitcher. This year has been terrible for him: gb% way down, LOB% way down, IFFB% way down while IFH% way up. All of these add up to the worst year of his career in a year where everyone seems to be doing poorly. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Porcello will continue to be a solid mid-rotation pitcher for the remainder of his career. Thinking otherwise is an overreaction to a bad 1/3 of a season. If you delve a little deeper into his season you see that his pitch types and frequency are different, and for whatever reasons, that's leading to fewer swings on first pitches and pitches outside of the zone. So...it appears that when he throws inside the zone they're getting hit, but when he throws outside of the zone people are laying off. Seems simple enough to diagnose, but more difficult to correct within a season.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 16, 2015 14:09:40 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes · 2h2 hours ago 6/16 vs. ATL: Holt 2B, Betts CF, Ortiz DH, Bogaerts SS, Sandoval 3B, Napoli 1B, De Aza LF, Swihart C, Castillo RF, Miley LHP. Hope Mookie has been practicing his bunting. Anyway, nice to see Xander hitting cleanup.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2015 14:19:12 GMT -5
It also looks to me like the rules regarding blocking the plate are different in the NCAA.
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