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Miley/Aro to Seattle for Carson Smith & Roenis Elias
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 7, 2015 15:13:41 GMT -5
I really don't understand how much people are overvaluing relief pitchers. Twitter is blowing up as if they ripped the M's off and everyone is laughing and giddy. Meanwhile, we just traded a very dependable starting pitcher who didn't cost much for another relief pitcher and their 5th 9th starter at best or a 2nd LOOGY at worst. From the Sox perspective: They traded a number surplus #5 start for a #8 they can stash, and their new 7th inning guy. A very good return, in the context of this team, I must say.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 15:14:09 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2015 15:14:36 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs 33s34 seconds ago Miley and aro to mariners for carson smith and roenis Elias agreed to Initial reaction: not great (I wouldn't have done it), but not terrible. Elias should have options left, and he's decent SP depth. Buzz kill.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 15:16:31 GMT -5
Perfect trade. I figured that a throw in would be necessary and if it had to be someone, Aro was the guy. Elias, out of the pen, creates some competition for Layne (who I don't personally think much of) and Ross.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:17:10 GMT -5
Initial reaction: not great (I wouldn't have done it), but not terrible. Elias should have options left, and he's decent SP depth. What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley.
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Post by Alonzo on Dec 7, 2015 15:17:23 GMT -5
I really don't understand how much people are overvaluing relief pitchers. Twitter is blowing up as if they ripped the M's off and everyone is laughing and giddy. Meanwhile, we just traded a very dependable starting pitcher who didn't cost much for another relief pitcher and their 5th 9th starter at best or a 2nd LOOGY at worst. A trade is fair when both sides consider it a rip-off. You can make arguments for Miley and the same goes for Smith. I have no issues with this move, none at all. I still don't get the lack of respect for relievers. I get it that they don't have the same impact in 70 Innings than the SP in 200, but in this case Smith put up a similar WAR (even though it is flawed with RP) in less than half the IP, so what's the problem? Not sure what the interest level in Kelly is, but let's see if Dave can pull off something else.
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Post by kyla13 on Dec 7, 2015 15:18:32 GMT -5
Hold up, do we have a good bullpen now? Tazawa in the 6th, koji in the 7th, smith in the 8th and kimbrel in the 9th? Barring injuries, we have an amazing bullpen now. I just wished they done this earlier and snagged Rich Hill as the fifth starter.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:18:40 GMT -5
Perfect trade. I figured that a throw in would be necessary and if it had to be someone, Aro was the guy. Elias, out of the pen, creates some competition for Layne (who I don't personally think much of) and Ross. Aro also opens up the needed space on the 40-man. Elias has little bullpen experience yet. I think he's starting in Rhode Island.
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Post by akiva on Dec 7, 2015 15:21:30 GMT -5
Obscene trade, what on earth is Seattle thinking?
Tazawa - Koji - Smith - Kimbrel. Automatic.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:22:11 GMT -5
Hold up, do we have a good bullpen now? Tazawa in the 6th, koji in the 7th, smith in the 8th and kimbrel in the 9th? Barring injuries, we have an amazing bullpen now. I just wished they done this earlier and snagged Rich Hill as the fifth starter. Robbie Ross after July 1: 33.1ip 29h 9bb 35k
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:24:56 GMT -5
I really don't understand how much people are overvaluing relief pitchers. Twitter is blowing up as if they ripped the M's off and everyone is laughing and giddy. Meanwhile, we just traded a very dependable starting pitcher who didn't cost much for another relief pitcher and their 5th 9th starter at best or a 2nd LOOGY at worst. A trade is fair when both sides consider it a rip-off. You can make arguments for Miley and the same goes for Smith. I have no issues with this move, none at all. I still don't get the lack of respect for relievers. I get it that they don't have the same impact in 70 Innings than the SP in 200, but in this case Smith put up a similar WAR (even though it is flawed with RP) in less than half the IP, so what's the problem? Not sure what the interest level in Kelly is, but let's see if Dave can pull off something else. Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:24:54 GMT -5
Or is Elias our 5th or 6th starter and Kelly going too?
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Post by Alonzo on Dec 7, 2015 15:25:48 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. But the counterpoint is that if Smith IS as good as his 2015 campaign, then we got one hell of a steal due to the fact that we also save significant money, right? I agree with you that trading for relievers is a gamble not every gm is willing to make, though. Let's hope it turns out alright.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:02 GMT -5
With 4 late inning right handed RPs, I wonder if DD is looking to flip Tazawa or Koji.
I like the 5 years of control. It was needed with each of the above free agents at the end of the year.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:04 GMT -5
I preferred to trade Kelly over Miley, but this is going to go down as a steal.
Smith keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. I don't care if he doesn't throw in the upper 90s. His K rate increased as his velo decreased, and his minor league numbers are just as impressive even if he wasnt a big prospect. 5 years of him is absolutely awesome.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:20 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. Miley is a great competitor no question but we had added a starter and had one to give up. Miley gives innings and is crafty. We needed to add more to the pen. Thanks for the ref to fangraphs citing velocity dip for Smith. Hopefully it was something other than injury or decline. Elias has more velocity than Owens or Johnson so maybe that frees them up in a trade too.
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:30 GMT -5
Barring injuries, we have an amazing bullpen now. I just wished they done this earlier and snagged Rich Hill as the fifth starter. Robbie Ross after July 1: 33.1ip 29h 9bb 35k Curious to see what happens with Robbie Ross. He's a better overall pitcher than all these other lefties (Layne, Elias) but he isn't as LOOGY-ish. His spread between LHH and RHH is relatively small.
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sarcasmo
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Formerly known as mtomeo
Posts: 91
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Post by sarcasmo on Dec 7, 2015 15:26:06 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. Interesting that his dip in velocity coincided with his promotion to Closer. Could be something to that...or not. Was he really thought of as a closer? I thought he was more of a setup guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:27:02 GMT -5
I preferred to trade Kelly over Miley, but this is going to go down as a steal. Smith keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. I don't care if he doesn't throw in the upper 90s. His K rate increased as his velo decreased, and his minor league numbers are just as impressive even if he wasnt a big prospect. 5 years of him is absolutely awesome. Smith lost almost 2 full mph in a year and a half. That's not a good sign.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:28:52 GMT -5
A trade is fair when both sides consider it a rip-off. You can make arguments for Miley and the same goes for Smith. I have no issues with this move, none at all. I still don't get the lack of respect for relievers. I get it that they don't have the same impact in 70 Innings than the SP in 200, but in this case Smith put up a similar WAR (even though it is flawed with RP) in less than half the IP, so what's the problem? Not sure what the interest level in Kelly is, but let's see if Dave can pull off something else. Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two. In 2013 in AA Smith was 50.0ip 33h 17bb 71k = 12.8k/9. Burke Badenhop never did that.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 7, 2015 15:28:58 GMT -5
A trade is fair when both sides consider it a rip-off. You can make arguments for Miley and the same goes for Smith. I have no issues with this move, none at all. I still don't get the lack of respect for relievers. I get it that they don't have the same impact in 70 Innings than the SP in 200, but in this case Smith put up a similar WAR (even though it is flawed with RP) in less than half the IP, so what's the problem? Not sure what the interest level in Kelly is, but let's see if Dave can pull off something else. Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two. Eeh he had a 1.65 FIP and 12.78 K/9 in AA in 2013 and a 2.89 FIP and 9.42 in AAA in 2014. Solid track record.
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Post by thursty on Dec 7, 2015 15:30:37 GMT -5
Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two. Come on, that's just asinine. Badenhop's best K-BB is 12%,Smith was at 25% in 2015. Sure, he could blowup or out, but there's no comparison
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:31:30 GMT -5
Perfect trade. I figured that a throw in would be necessary and if it had to be someone, Aro was the guy. Elias, out of the pen, creates some competition for Layne (who I don't personally think much of) and Ross. Aro also opens up the needed space on the 40-man. Elias has little bullpen experience yet. I think he's starting in Rhode Island. They traded 2 for 2. No 40 man spots opening up.
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Post by justen on Dec 7, 2015 15:32:24 GMT -5
A trade is fair when both sides consider it a rip-off. You can make arguments for Miley and the same goes for Smith. I have no issues with this move, none at all. I still don't get the lack of respect for relievers. I get it that they don't have the same impact in 70 Innings than the SP in 200, but in this case Smith put up a similar WAR (even though it is flawed with RP) in less than half the IP, so what's the problem? Not sure what the interest level in Kelly is, but let's see if Dave can pull off something else. Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two.This is a very fair point and jmei also pointed out something interesting with the velo decrease. But can't you fairly say, aside from the "could's", that Smith's current stuff (if it holds up) projects to provide roughly as much value (*potentially more*) as Miley over the next 5 years than Miley over his next 3? The innings aside, the addition of Smith has made the team's outlook much stronger than say, Miley's departure making the rotation and overall outlook THAT much worse. Probably could have gotten more for Miley but the potential is there for it to look like a better-than-solid deal. Also as you point out, the potential is there for it to look bad. Like that for any trade, just more-so for relievers. I'd also agree that we probably need to acquire more starting depth and Maeda might make sense. But there are still some options out there who could come cheaper. I don't see the Sox as done.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:32:18 GMT -5
I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. But the counterpoint is that if Smith IS as good as his 2015 campaign, then we got one hell of a steal due to the fact that we also save significant money, right? I agree with you that trading for relievers is a gamble not every gm is willing to make, though. Let's hope it turns out alright. Yeah, if Smith is a true-talent two win reliever, this would be a clear win for the Red Sox. But if he's more of a true-talent one win reliever (which is what I (and Steamer) think), Miley is more valuable, even though he's got five years of cheap team control compared to Miley's three years at moderate dollars.
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