|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 15:52:31 GMT -5
Buster Olney @buster_ESPN Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition. And yet you've got naysayers here (some of whom I might add LOVED our 2015 rotation and raved about an impending 90 win season). Yeah, I'll go with the opinion of the rival executives, thank you very much.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2015 15:52:40 GMT -5
Carson Smith at Safeco in 2015: 36.0 IP, .138 BAA, 17 H, 10 BB, 50 K Carson Smith on road in 2015: 34.0 IP, .248 BAA, 32 H, 12 BB, 42 K That's the difference in a 2.3 war player and a 1.0 war player like Jmei said. The strikeout numbers are still strong, so he'll still help us, but man a clear buy high trade. Going to from Safeco to Fenway is a huge difference!
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
|
Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:53:20 GMT -5
In 2013 in AA Smith was 50.0ip 33h 17bb 71k = 12.8k/9. Burke Badenhop never did that. What about his numbers in 2014? His strikeout went way down and his whip went way up. He gave up over a hit per inning. And then he was good in 2014. Ergo not just one good year.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:12 GMT -5
If they were going to trade Miley for a reliever, this is as good of a deal as they could have done. But I think it makes the 2016 team worse (you've traded rotation wins for fewer bullpen wins), and in the long term, Smith is a pretty risky asset.
|
|
sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
|
Post by sdl on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:13 GMT -5
Putting it all together from August 2012 to today. It boils down to this: Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett and Punto for Holt, Smith and Elias.
|
|
|
Post by mandelbro on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:36 GMT -5
I'm ashamed to say I have no idea who Carson Smith is. Will take my cue from the reactions here... He was outrageously effective out of the pen. Getting both Elias and this guy makes this a good deal for me. The fans relished watching him come in to pitch. Very good stuff and he seems absolutely fearless on the mound, challenging batters. Initial impression is that this is a good return for Miley. Haven't you heard? Its a terrible trade because Smith might get injured Maybe I'm a fool but I think Kelly is going to make people forget about Wade
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:24 GMT -5
Certainly should dampen the over the top reaction - traded 180 IP of league average performance for a late inning reliever. The Red Sox have one (2 if you count Porcello), reliable innings-eaters starters now, that's less than ideal
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 7, 2015 15:55:06 GMT -5
- Buster Olney
- Jason Churchill
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 7, 2015 15:54:42 GMT -5
Miley was owed 6.167 mil this season against the cap. That was set to go up the next year. something to consider.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:55:35 GMT -5
He was outrageously effective out of the pen. Getting both Elias and this guy makes this a good deal for me. The fans relished watching him come in to pitch. Very good stuff and he seems absolutely fearless on the mound, challenging batters. Initial impression is that this is a good return for Miley. Haven't you heard? Its a terrible trade because Smith might get injured Maybe I'm a fool but I think Kelly is going to make people forget about Wade To be clear, I haven't called it a terrible trade. Not one I would have done, but it's close. Call it a B-.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 7, 2015 15:55:37 GMT -5
As long as Kelly keeps the Sanchez, he'll be money.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2015 15:56:59 GMT -5
Buster Olney @buster_ESPN Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition. And yet you've got naysayers here (some of whom I might add LOVED our 2015 rotation and raved about an impending 90 win season). Yeah, I'll go with the opinion of the rival executives, thank you very much. Oh course you would, why form your own opinion, when you can just take another persons opinion.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 7, 2015 15:57:37 GMT -5
I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. Agree with jmei here. There were two very different Carson Smiths, the one before, and the one after a four-out save on Aug. 11. The one before was great, the one after was bad: www.lookoutlanding.com/2015/8/20/9182691/carson-smith-has-hit-a-wallWhich Carson Smith did the Sox get? More accurately, Smith had a bad July and a not so great August before righting the ship and dominating in Sep/Oct.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater on Dec 7, 2015 15:57:32 GMT -5
So Elias is going to be used out of the pen? Or compete with Kelly for #5 spot?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
|
Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 15:58:04 GMT -5
We're trying to talk ourselves into assuming he gets injured already? His average velocity did increase from August to September. Throwing a lot of sliders isn't great, but doesn't guarantee anything. We have 4 good relievers now. This should help limit their fatigue. As long as 3 at a time out healthy our own will be in good shape.
Elias also should be a lefty killer, so I hope we use him in that fashion. 10 years of control between the two is a good deal, even if it ends up only being 4 years of Smith due to injury. I think this is a good trade for two years of Miley even though I do think he's very under appreciated.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Kelly and Owens combine to match what Miley would give us in the 5th spot of the rotation.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 15:57:45 GMT -5
Putting it all together from August 2012 to today. It boils down to this: Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett and Punto for Holt, Smith and Elias. Beckett retired and Crawford has been a shadow of his former self. Plus, you forgot about the 1/4 BILLION dollars shaved off of Boston's payroll. That being said, Cherington then turned around and thew all of that savings and more down a rat hole with the Hanley, Pablo and Porcello deals. I'd call it more AGon for Holt, Smith and Elias.
|
|
|
Post by trotnixonforever on Dec 7, 2015 15:59:37 GMT -5
So Elias is going to be used out of the pen? Or compete with Kelly for #5 spot? My guess is he competes for a rotation spot in spring training and whoever loses goes to the pen.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 16:00:01 GMT -5
Putting it all together from August 2012 to today. It boils down to this: Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett and Punto for Holt, Smith and Elias. It's getting pretty out there now. Almost as useful as figuring out where they'd be now if they got ARod.
|
|
|
Post by cba82 on Dec 7, 2015 16:00:16 GMT -5
"Wade Miley is still probably the best player in this deal.... So while I do like this trade, I think it's only a slight win." -- As Dave Dombrowski would say, the Red Sox traded from redundancy, and added to an area of the team that needed improvement.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 16:01:28 GMT -5
I'm open to the idea that I'm underrating Elias. I see him as a Matt Barnes/pre-2015 Edwin Escobar type who probably isn't good enough to stick in the rotation for a good team and has some late-innings bullpen potential, but it's unclear whether he'll make a smooth adjustment to the 'pen. If he has legitimate third/fourth starter upside in the rotation or has more of a chance to be a useful reliever than I initially thought, this trade might tilt in Boston's favor.
|
|
|
Post by trotnixonforever on Dec 7, 2015 16:03:41 GMT -5
"Wade Miley is still probably the best player in this deal.... So while I do like this trade, I think it's only a slight win." -- As Dave Dombrowski would say, the Red Sox traded from redundancy, and added to an area of the team that needed improvement. That's fine, but I'm not going to get overexcited about a deal for two likely relievers. If you're really that excited about Carson Smith, remember Joel Hanrahan?
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 7, 2015 16:05:01 GMT -5
Yeah, if Smith is a true-talent two win reliever, this would be a clear win for the Red Sox. But if he's more of a true-talent one win reliever (which is what I (and Steamer) think), Miley is more valuable, even though he's got five years of cheap team control compared to Miley's three years at moderate dollars. More valuable to this team, as it is currently constructed, or more valuable in a vacuum, from a win perspective? You know that doesn't matter
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 16:05:03 GMT -5
We're trying to talk ourselves into assuming he gets injured already? His average velocity did increase from August to September. Throwing a lot of sliders isn't great, but doesn't guarantee anything. We have 4 good relievers now. This should help limit their fatigue. As long as 3 at a time out healthy our own will be in good shape. Elias also should be a lefty killer, so I hope we use him in that fashion. 10 years of control between the two is a good deal, even if it ends up only being 4 years of Smith due to injury. I think this is a good trade for two years of Miley even though I do think he's very under appreciated. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Kelly and Owens combine to match what Miley would give us in the 5th spot of the rotation. My point with the velo and the sliders is just to say that we can't assume that Smith is a lock for five years of bullpen dominance. He's certainly a higher-risk player than Miley is. With Buchholz still in the rotation, they needed Kelly and Owens anyways. I think there's a sizable step down between Miley and Kelly/Owens-- more than the step up from, say, Matt Barnes to Carson Smith.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 16:05:49 GMT -5
We're trying to talk ourselves into assuming he gets injured already? His average velocity did increase from August to September. Throwing a lot of sliders isn't great, but doesn't guarantee anything. We have 4 good relievers now. This should help limit their fatigue. As long as 3 at a time out healthy our own will be in good shape. Elias also should be a lefty killer, so I hope we use him in that fashion. 10 years of control between the two is a good deal, even if it ends up only being 4 years of Smith due to injury. I think this is a good trade for two years of Miley even though I do think he's very under appreciated. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Kelly and Owens combine to match what Miley would give us in the 5th spot of the rotation. Go to the Price thread and you'll find the same naysayers who - within seconds of that deal being announced - were trashing it. It's like they get off on being contrarian simply for the sake of swimming upstream. That, or they can't deal with the reality that Dombrowski is doing what Cherington couldn't do. Reality is that so far this offseason we have added a power lefty starter, a power righty reliever and a nice project piece in Elias in exchange for cash, a 29 year old innings eating lefty who probably peaked while with Arizona and Aro. THIS is shaping up to be a team that can win - Unlike the mess we started with last season.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2015 16:07:16 GMT -5
|
|