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Miley/Aro to Seattle for Carson Smith & Roenis Elias
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 7, 2015 15:32:45 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. Agree with jmei here. There were two very different Carson Smiths, the one before, and the one after a four-out save on Aug. 11. The one before was great, the one after was bad: www.lookoutlanding.com/2015/8/20/9182691/carson-smith-has-hit-a-wallWhich Carson Smith did the Sox get?
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:33:47 GMT -5
I preferred to trade Kelly over Miley, but this is going to go down as a steal. Smith keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. I don't care if he doesn't throw in the upper 90s. His K rate increased as his velo decreased, and his minor league numbers are just as impressive even if he wasnt a big prospect. 5 years of him is absolutely awesome. Smith lost almost 2 full mph in a year and a half. That's not a good sign. I'll also note that he throws almost 50% sliders, which is a huge Tommy John red flag for me.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 7, 2015 15:33:55 GMT -5
LookoutLanding.com is meLLting! Hahahaha
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sarcasmo
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Post by sarcasmo on Dec 7, 2015 15:34:58 GMT -5
But the counterpoint is that if Smith IS as good as his 2015 campaign, then we got one hell of a steal due to the fact that we also save significant money, right? I agree with you that trading for relievers is a gamble not every gm is willing to make, though. Let's hope it turns out alright. Yeah, if Smith is a true-talent two win reliever, this would be a clear win for the Red Sox. But if he's more of a true-talent one win reliever (which is what I (and Steamer) think), Miley is more valuable, even though he's got five years of cheap team control compared to Miley's three years at moderate dollars. More valuable to this team, as it is currently constructed, or more valuable in a vacuum, from a win perspective?
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Post by mjammz on Dec 7, 2015 15:35:28 GMT -5
Looking at splits Roenis Elias struck out LHH at over 12k per 9 with a FIP of 2.15. Definitely looks like he could be used out of the pen vs. Lefties.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 15:35:53 GMT -5
I preferred to trade Kelly over Miley, but this is going to go down as a steal. Smith keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. I don't care if he doesn't throw in the upper 90s. His K rate increased as his velo decreased, and his minor league numbers are just as impressive even if he wasnt a big prospect. 5 years of him is absolutely awesome. Smith lost almost 2 full mph in a year and a half. That's not a good sign. That's based off of 8 innings in 2014 and his first 10 appearances this year though. I'm not worried about it. He's going to average 92 not 94, but he's proven he can excel while doing so. I'm sure the physical will shed more light on his arm and alert us to any potential problems. The loss in velocity was noted in a fangraphs article, which I'm sure someone in the org has seen.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 15:36:27 GMT -5
Yeah, if Smith is a true-talent two win reliever, this would be a clear win for the Red Sox. But if he's more of a true-talent one win reliever (which is what I (and Steamer) think), Miley is more valuable, even though he's got five years of cheap team control compared to Miley's three years at moderate dollars. More valuable to this team, as it is currently constructed, or more valuable in a vacuum, from a win perspective Both, but I think I'm lower on Owens and Johnson than most. ADD: you can probably add Kelly and Wright to that list, too. I think Miley is a win+ better than any of those guys in 2015, and though the gap narrows a bit in 2016 and beyond, I'd still take Miley over any one of those guys individually.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2015 15:36:45 GMT -5
Aro also opens up the needed space on the 40-man. Elias has little bullpen experience yet. I think he's starting in Rhode Island. They traded 2 for 2. No 40 man spots opening up. That's what I meant. If they hadn't sent Aro, they would have had to take someone off the 40-man.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:39:01 GMT -5
Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two. Come on, that's just asinine. Badenhop's best K-BB is 12%,Smith was at 25% in 2015. Sure, he could blowup or out, but there's no comparison And how many times have you seen relief pitchers have one good year and then fade away? Aro could end up better than Smith. Remember Gabe White? Didn't think so. He had a 3.0 fWAR year in 2000 and ended up with 4.1 for his career. I could come up with a list of about 100 of those guys.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 7, 2015 15:39:26 GMT -5
Some video of Carson Smith:
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Post by Guidas on Dec 7, 2015 15:40:07 GMT -5
I really don't understand how much people are overvaluing relief pitchers. Twitter is blowing up as if they ripped the M's off and everyone is laughing and giddy. Meanwhile, we just traded a very dependable starting pitcher who didn't cost much for another relief pitcher and their 5th 9th starter at best or a 2nd LOOGY at worst. FWIW Smith had a 2.1 fWAR last year whereas Miley had a 2.6. A bit of apples and oranges, but by that measure not so far off. Also, Smith could end up being a credible closer with his stuff. If Seattle took all the money I like the deal as I think we have two or three #5 pitchers who could fill Miley's role. Then again, I thought De La Rose could fill Miley's role and never bought into the big break-out season talk surrounding Miley. Elias is meh-depth.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2015 15:40:30 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. I still think people massively undervalue his dependability. Not the worst trade ever, and the bullpen might be kind of amazing next year, but I wouldn't have done it either.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2015 15:40:47 GMT -5
What did you expect a Miley/Aro package to fetch? I absolutely love this. I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. You got it right. Smith had a great year, but what are the chances he's worth 2.3 WAR year in and year out? I find it crazy how people are acting like this is the best trade ever. I'm not a huge Miley fan either. Now I will eat my words if Smith is the pitcher he was last year for the next 5 years. That's just not likely, very few relievers are like Kimbrel and Chapman, that's why they are valued so highly.
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Post by thursty on Dec 7, 2015 15:41:23 GMT -5
I think we're buying high on Carson Smith and his true talent level isn't as good as his 2015 (he was never a highly-rated prospect, and his velo noticeable dropped as the year went on). The years of control are nice, but because reliever performance is volatile, it matters less for those guys than it does for a position player or starting pitcher. I also really, really liked Miley. Agree with jmei here. There were two very different Carson Smiths, the one before, and the one after a four-out save on Aug. 11. The one before was great, the one after was bad: www.lookoutlanding.com/2015/8/20/9182691/carson-smith-has-hit-a-wallWhich Carson Smith did the Sox get? that article's date 20th August runs allowed in September? ZERO
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 7, 2015 15:42:00 GMT -5
I hope this focus on relievers is backed by some solid analysis and not an overreaction to the Royals.
Still, though, a solid trade. Could go either way, really, although I really like Miley. I think being dependably above average is an underrated skill set in a pitcher. I expect him to put up some good numbers next year in Seattle.
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Post by justen on Dec 7, 2015 15:43:11 GMT -5
Kelly is definitely the one you'd try to push into a deal like this. With relievers becoming more and more valuable SEA probably doesn't do this deal without Miley, though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2015 15:45:05 GMT -5
Smith lost almost 2 full mph in a year and a half. That's not a good sign. I'll also note that he throws almost 50% sliders, which is a huge Tommy John red flag for me. Ok, now I actually kinda hate this trade. Dipoto did very well.
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Post by FreeJBJ on Dec 7, 2015 15:46:09 GMT -5
Carson Smith at Safeco in 2015: 36.0 IP, .138 BAA, 17 H, 10 BB, 50 K
Carson Smith on road in 2015: 34.0 IP, .248 BAA, 32 H, 12 BB, 42 K
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Post by trotnixonforever on Dec 7, 2015 15:47:12 GMT -5
I'd call this a small win for the Sox, but doesn't move the needle much. I think some are overvaluing Carson Smith and Roenis Elias.
1. Carson is an above average, but not great, closer. 2. Elias is more of a 5th starter/swingman type. 3. Wade Miley is still probably the best player in this deal. 4. Both Elias and Smith have been pitching half their games in Seattle, not Fenway. How many FA pitchers have we seen not do well with the transition to Fenway? I looked up their splits and Elias' numbers aren't that different home vs away, but remember most teams in the AL West play in spacious parks (Seattle, OAK, LAA, etc.) not Fenway, Yankee Stadium, TOR, Camden Yards like in the AL East. Carson on the other hand....wow like night and day. Home ERA of 1.50, away ERA of 3.18. Home WHIP 0.75, away WHIP 1.29. Home OPS allowed .339, away OPS .683. All numbers are career numbers per baseball-reference.com.
Or to put it another way, in my 12 team mixed keeper league where we roster 28 and hoard pitchers, Miley was rostered all year last year while Elias was available to spot start all year. So while I do like this trade, I think it's only a slight win. Even if both guys are valuable relievers that doesn't provide that much value. Maybe it gets you 1 or 2 more wins at the most over the guys they're replacing, but who replaces Miley in the rotation? This is at least better than the Kimbral trade (which looks a lot worse after the Chapman trade, surprise surprise...).
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:47:28 GMT -5
Maybe the Red Sox can trade Kimbrel for Buxton and Sano now.
I think the relief pitcher bubble is about to burst.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2015 15:47:42 GMT -5
Smith had one good year. He could easily end up as Burke Badenhop in a year or two. In 2013 in AA Smith was 50.0ip 33h 17bb 71k = 12.8k/9. Burke Badenhop never did that. What about his numbers in 2014? His strikeout went way down and his whip went way up. He gave up over a hit per inning.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 7, 2015 15:49:16 GMT -5
Buster Olney @buster_ESPN Boston getting big-time rave reviews from rival executives on the Carson Smith acquisition.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2015 15:49:22 GMT -5
I'm ashamed to say I have no idea who Carson Smith is. Will take my cue from the reactions here... He was outrageously effective out of the pen. Getting both Elias and this guy makes this a good deal for me. The fans relished watching him come in to pitch. Very good stuff and he seems absolutely fearless on the mound, challenging batters. Initial impression is that this is a good return for Miley.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 15:50:41 GMT -5
I'd call this a small win for the Sox, but doesn't move the needle much. I think some are overvaluing Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. 1. Carson is an above average, but not great, closer. 2. Elias is more of a 5th starter/swingman type. 3. Wade Miley is still probably the best player in this deal. 4. Both Elias and Smith have been pitching half their games in Seattle, not Fenway. How many FA pitchers have we seen not do well with the transition to Fenway? I looked up their splits and Elias' numbers aren't that different home vs away, but remember most teams in the AL West play in spacious parks (Seattle, OAK, LAA, etc.) not Fenway, Yankee Stadium, TOR, Camden Yards like in the AL East. Carson on the other hand....wow like night and day. Home ERA of 1.50, away ERA of 3.18. Home WHIP 0.75, away WHIP 1.29. Home OPS allowed .339, away OPS .683. All numbers are career numbers per baseball-reference.com. Or to put it another way, in my 12 team mixed keeper league where we roster 28 and hoard pitchers, Miley was rostered all year last year while Elias was available to spot start all year. So while I do like this trade, I think it's only a slight win. Even if both guys are valuable relievers that doesn't provide that much value. Maybe it gets you 1 or 2 more wins at the most over the guys they're replacing, but who replaces Miley in the rotation? This is at least better than the Kimbral trade (which looks a lot worse after the Chapman trade, surprise surprise...). Some good stuff there and I agree with most. But I'm not too concerned about Smith pitching away from Seattle as such an extreme ground ball pitcher. He was even more extreme in the minors. But I'm definitely not as thrilled as others on it.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 7, 2015 15:51:22 GMT -5
I'm ashamed to say I have no idea who Carson Smith is. Will take my cue from the reactions here... He was outrageously effective out of the pen. Getting both Elias and this guy makes this a good deal for me. The fans relished watching him come in to pitch. Very good stuff and he seems absolutely fearless on the mound, challenging batters. Initial impression is that this is a good return for Miley. Some Pitch f/x for your baseballing enjoyment here: www.draysbay.com/2015/12/7/9866888/red-sox-trade-wde-miley-carson-smith-first-rate-reliever-new-al-east-foe
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