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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 9, 2020 8:49:16 GMT -5
If the primary function of a farm system is to bring major league talent to the show, I don't see any team better poised to do just that. Almost every other team in baseball graduated their best prospects this year already. I like the Red Sox high minors crop and I agree they have a lot of guys with real 2021 impact potential, but check out the Rays list. It's absolutely terrifying. Even if you take out the guys who have debuted and not graduated (McKay, McClanahan, Arozarena, etc), you're looking at Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan for sure.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 9, 2020 18:43:05 GMT -5
Franco might be the most anticipated prospect in years. I didn't realize their crop was that close.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2020 2:53:42 GMT -5
One final post on Houck. As I was saying to Ian the other night (I think on the podcast episode, but might've been before), having to temper expectations on guys is the part of this gig that I hate, but let's look at what Houck did and didn't do in his starts. 33.3% K rate - this is very good! That said, it's also higher than any rate he's put up in his career, and I don't think he'll stay up there going forward. Based on his career numbers, you could probably expect it to drop back down to about 25%, still good. (If you're more used to K/9, his was 11.12, and the only time he's been above 10 was 10.07 in Lowell.) 14.3% BB rate - this is very bad! To be fair, it's also higher than any number he's put up in his career, although it's been as high as 11.6% in his season with Salem. You'd hope this similarly comes down as we get some regression to the mean and he figures out how to pitch to MLB hitters... but it does need to come down. (For the /9 crowd: 4.76, and he was at 4.54 in Salem, although he was facing more hitters per inning.) Because... .161 BABIP, 95.9% strand rate - neither of these is sustainable, and they account for a big part of the disparity between his ERA (0.53) and FIP (3.25). As hits fall in, he's going to strand fewer runners, and we're going to have to see how much the strikeout and walk numbers change. His numbers suggest he's not going to keep this up, not that anyone is necessarily saying he will. The question is what the regression looks like. I don't think we know that yet, and that's why I'm saying he shouldn't move much in a ranking. Yet. Statcast had his xERA at 3.83. I had the exact same figure with my pERA, but that includes 2 barrels, and 1 of them was in the bottom 2% of EV for barrels, so if that ball was maybe 0.2 mph less hard, his pERA is 3.16, basically the same as his FIP.
So of course no one thinks the 0.53 was anything but a fluke. The key fact is the one I already talked about -- the strong likelihood that he has a plus-plus slider. The velo / movement we saw is not subject to much regresssion, AFAIK. Combine that with getting 3.50-ish results against good opposition in 3 starts in MLB, and I think he has to be in the top 6. Both his floor and ceiling have gone up. I don't know how going from a potential plus slider to a likely plus-plus slider doesn't vault you over Ward, Groome, and Jiminez, and probably over Song as well.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 10, 2020 19:34:34 GMT -5
If the primary function of a farm system is to bring major league talent to the show, I don't see any team better poised to do just that. Almost every other team in baseball graduated their best prospects this year already. I like the Red Sox high minors crop and I agree they have a lot of guys with real 2021 impact potential, but check out the Rays list. It's absolutely terrifying. Even if you take out the guys who have debuted and not graduated (McKay, McClanahan, Arozarena, etc), you're looking at Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan for sure. Yeah it's more than a little frightening that the Rays look like the best team in the AL right now, while they have yet to debut their 80 FV prospect lol
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 5:44:12 GMT -5
Someone (Chris I think) brought up Freddy Freeman as an example of why underrating first basemen based on their position isn't a good idea.
Consider
Freeman 1.86 OPS+ in 262 PA Betts 1.49 OPS+ in 246 PA
Freeman 2.9 bWAR Betts 3.4 bWAR.
I still prefer a player that can impact the game in multiple ways.
ADD: Not implying any comps here just saying a first baseman has a significantly higher offensive bar to be equal to a multitool player in a premium defensive position, the more premium the position, the higher the bar.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2020 10:58:45 GMT -5
To be fair, I'd call them comparable players this year. Fangraphs prefers Freeman by about the same amount of WAR.
Freeman 187 wRC+ Betts 149 wRC+
Freeman 3.4 fWAR Betts 3.0 fWAR
We're also talking about one of the best defenders and baserunners in baseball in Betts. I'd argue that in order to close the gap in their offense, he had to be a top 5 baserunner and top 30 defender in the game (both per FG). And that sort of makes my point. Like, I'd still take Freeman over a Corey Seager (merely on talent), even though Seager plays up the middle. That's all I mean.
I don't disagree with your general point. I just think the gap is way less than it's measured as sometimes, and would suggest that there is a strong potential to underrate a potential impact bat if it's 1B-only. It's one thing if we're talking about Josh Ockimey who also has holes in his offensive game. But if Casas looks like a potential 60 hit/60 power hitter with a higher ceiling who'll play an average first base, I think that's an easy top-50 prospect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2020 11:56:16 GMT -5
I just think the gap is way less than it's measured as sometimes, and would suggest that there is a strong potential to underrate a potential impact bat if it's 1B-only. It's one thing if we're talking about Josh Ockimey who also has holes in his offensive game. But if Casas looks like a potential 60 hit/60 power hitter with a higher ceiling who'll play an average first base, I think that's an easy top-50 prospect. This discussion reminded me of two other types of bias -- and the two future MVP's whose prospect rating took a hit from both.
So I just read the final BA Prospect Handbook entrees for Dustin Pedroia (#77 overall, then unranked) and Jose Altuve (never ranked). Both, of course, short, and second basemen rather than shortstops.
The Pedroia writeup has one negative comment (he needs to get stronger to avoid injuries) and doesn't mention his size, except obliquely (he's David Eckstein with more pop and less speed). Scouts agreed he had "extraordinary hand-eye coordination" that was "among the best in baseball." They just didn't think it would get him that far. Neither the 2006 or 2007 writeups mention his makeup.
The Altuve writeup is all raves: "at times a dazzling second baseman ... enough power to punish mistakes ... [plus] bat control ... uses the whole field ... excellent baserunning skills ... a team leader." But it ends "He may put up big numbers at Lancaster [where he had 127 PA at the end of the previous year] but will have to keep proving himself at higher levels to scouts who remain skeptical of a player with such a small body." He was in the majors the next season after just 153 PA in AA
The Astros system that year was ranked #26 in MLB. Do folks want to guess where Altuve was ranked in their system?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 12:01:25 GMT -5
But that's my point, Betts has more value because he can impact the game in more ways. Freeman is pretty clearly one of the better hitters in baseball and pretty clearly a better hitter than Betts.
I don't disagree at all that Casas is a top 50 prospect (and glad to see you've come around on the value of ATS) I'd give Casas 55H/65P but that's nitpicking. For me though, the only component Duran was missing was the power component so, I think, given the 80 speed, advances in CF which is a new position, his grade totals are going to be higher than Casas and I think he will impact the game in more ways.
If Casas gets some 3B time, which I think will happen, the importance of defense goes up as will his national ranking.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 12:14:45 GMT -5
There's a difference between should have and will have. To me, we should have 4 top 50 prospects in whatever order. Duran, Casas, Mata and Houck. Mata is going to fly way below everyone's radar, he might not even make top 100.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 15, 2020 19:01:45 GMT -5
There's a difference between should have and will have. To me, we should have 4 top 50 prospects in whatever order. Duran, Casas, Mata and Houck. Mata is going to fly way below everyone's radar, he might not even make top 100. Ya at this point I do not see Mata making a top 100 list or houck for that matter. Even though I think they have more talent then some of the guys in the top 100. It's almost more fun watching them be under vauled and proving their worth when they hit the bigs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 21, 2020 20:45:10 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2020 9:25:16 GMT -5
For what it's worth, most of the quotes are from the same end-of-season presser that we've been discussing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 22, 2020 9:29:29 GMT -5
True but he also added some opinions and details other than the quotes. He's generally been pretty well researched when he covers things for the Sox. I don't follow other systems but it would be impressive if he were this well versed on all the teams.
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Post by borisman on Oct 22, 2020 12:42:39 GMT -5
There's a difference between should have and will have. To me, we should have 4 top 50 prospects in whatever order. Duran, Casas, Mata and Houck. Mata is going to fly way below everyone's radar, he might not even make top 100. Will the 4th overall pick be ranked in the MLB top 50? (precedent says yes) I doubt he will be ahead of Casas but very well could/should be the 2nd ranked prospect on SP list. Sorry if this was already discussed. I must have missed it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2020 13:30:34 GMT -5
Yeah, in theory the draft pick will be a top 50 guy (although fwiw, surprise #2 pick Heston Kjerstad is just outside MLB.com's top 50, while the next 4 or 5 picks at least are, so it probably depends on the player).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2020 8:52:33 GMT -5
Buuuuuuuuuump
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2020 10:30:01 GMT -5
And we're live!
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Post by Mike Andrews on Nov 25, 2020 10:46:37 GMT -5
Happy Thanksgiving everybody! As an appetizer leading up to Turkey Day, we released our 2020 season-end rankings this morning. And despite there being no minor league season this year, there were actually quite a few changes to the rankings. The good news is that we got tons of great scouting data from Fall Instructs and the Alternate Training Site – we took the last few weeks to fully digest, process, and discuss that info to compile our latest list. Some of the new rankings also flow from transactions that have occurred since our last rankings update in early September. Under the new rankings, the top four remained the same - but there were some changes in the top 20. Gilberto Jimenez, Aldo Ramirez, and Brainer Bonaci all popped. We got reports that Jimenez was the top position player at Instructs – he has filled out considerably and is now built like a running back. While he’s still an elite athlete, he’s been driving the ball to all fields with more authority. Meanwhile, Ramirez was the best pitcher in camp (among those who actually pitched), flashing three potential above-average major league pitches. Bonaci - who just turned 18 in July - demonstrated major league average defense, an above-average arm, good athleticism, and solid bat control. He had the best showing among the younger Latin prospects. Noah Song dropped a bit in the rankings, largely due to uncertainty. While we don't have much in terms of new news on Song, it’s still unclear if and when he’ll be back on the mound as a professional, and even when he does there isn’t clarity on how long it will take him to take him to ramp up to a starter’s innings. That said, we still very much like him as a pitcher and a prospect. After a decent showing at the Alternate Site earlier this year, Jay Groome took a step back at Fall Instructs, leading to a drop in the rankings. His fastball velocity dropped and his secondary pitches were inconsistent at camp. In the 21-40 range, Brayan Bello, Eduard Bazardo, Bradley Blalock, and Eduardo Lopez popped in the rankings after solid showings at Instructs. On the other hand, CJ Chatham, Cameron Cannon, and Antoni Flores all fell following updated scouting information from the Alternate Site and Instructs. A few other risers in the 41-60 range include Stephen Gonsalves, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Juan Chacon, and Brian Van Belle. Among the prospects that just missed the cut for the top 60: Joan Martinez, Kyle Hart, Ryan Fitzgerald, and Albert Feliz. Make sure to follow Ian’s scouting updates on Twitter and the SoxProspects News page for more detail. Cheers! Mike
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 25, 2020 11:07:59 GMT -5
7 potential starters in the top 12? I certainly don't mind seeing that
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2020 11:16:59 GMT -5
Some miscellany for you all:
Biggest risers (non-debut) today: RHP Eduard Bazardo, +13, 39 to 26 OF Juan Chacon, +10, 59 to 49 SS Brainer Bonaci, +9, 23 to 14 OF Eduardo Lopez, +8, 43 to 35 OF Eduardo Vaughan, +8, 55 to 47
Debuts in the year-end rankings: RHP Bradley Blalock at 36 LHP Stephen Gonsalves at 45 RHP Wilkelman Gonzalez at 48 RHP Brian Van Belle at 50 OF Michael Gettys at 54
New peak rankings (non-debut) today: RHP Connor Seabold, 9 RHP Aldo Ramirez, 10 SS Brainer Bonaci, 14 OF Eduardo Vaughan, 47 OF Juan Chacon, 49
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Post by Mike Andrews on Nov 25, 2020 11:50:39 GMT -5
Worth noting that there is an interesting history for prospects who debut or get a big bump at this time of year, particularly Latin players we might be seeing for the first time. Oftentimes we are the first or among the first outlets ranking these prospects. Some examples...
2019: Brainer Bonaci, Luis Perales, Jorge Rodriguez, Darel Belen 2018: Gilberto Jimenez, Aldo Ramirez, Brayan Bello, Yoan Aybar, Josh Taylor 2017: Pedro Castellanos (hit the radar in spring 2017 but popped in the Fall) 2016: Bryan Mata, Gerson Bautista 2015: Anderson Espinoza
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Post by congusgambler33 on Nov 25, 2020 17:05:49 GMT -5
Notably missing in the top 60 is Nick Northcut. I guess he dropped out of sight.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Nov 25, 2020 17:07:52 GMT -5
Despite getting good reviews from the staff, Dylan Spacke didn't get any love for the top 60.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2020 17:41:32 GMT -5
Northcut is in the group that just missed. We all ranked him in the 60s on our lists. Reports from Instructs weren't good there. Good raw power but significant issues getting to it.
Spacke I think you may be overstating the report on him, or perhaps we gave the wrong impression on the pod (presuming that's what you're referring to). It's fine but it's a middle reliever at very best, and that's a ceiling. Made all of our lists in the 70s.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2020 14:48:52 GMT -5
Good reports on physical progress of Tyler Esplin, Jordan, Casas, Bryan Bello, Brendan Cellucci, and Feltman, who should get a bump up in the rankings here after the powers that be read the article. Positive words for Jordan and Grullon defense. Crockett's min-scouting report on Liu.
Two mentions of SoxProspects, too (including one of Ian).
Addressing the above here rather than in the other thread because that's just a links thread. Just want to say 1) we got reports on every player from Instructs and feel comfortable with where he's ranked, and 2) I don't see whatever it is that you're seeing that says he should be moved up. He's a relief-only guy who couldn't figure out what his best secondary pitch was last year and walked 31 guys in 51.1 IP. I think the fact that he's in the top 30 is a good indication of good upside, but you'd have a hard time convincing me to move him much higher than that. He moved up five spots from 33 to 28 as it is.
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