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2016 Boston Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2016 16:24:43 GMT -5
Middleton is a decent enough player, but the third pick is a lot to give up for a guy who is more solid starter than star. He's a good shooter, but he's not a guy who creates his own offense. He's more a low-usage catch-and-shoot type than someone who can run secondary pick-and-rolls or get to the hoop with any regularity. While he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, he also doesn't particularly contribute as a defender, rebounder or distributor. So you think we can get a star at #3? If so who do you think that player is? I think your views of Middleton are a little off. While not a star, he's much better than solid starter. Advanced numbers show him as a top 20 player for the last two years and he's 24 years old. He can also play both SG and SF. While his defensive numbers went down last year, they were very good the year before. Remember, Middleton just signed a decently-sized (though still below-market) extension. I'd rather have a cheap-as-dirt draft pick with star upside and the potential for 8+ years of team control than a slightly-underpaid Middleton. Middleton makes the team better, but it doesn't make them close enough to a championship contender that I'd trade upside for certainty (which is effectively what you'd be doing). ADD: I don't trust Middleton's plus/minus-based stats. I think it's less that Middleton was so good and more that his replacements were so bad. He was the only real shooter on the Bucks' roster, and when he was off the floor, Milwaukee just couldn't score against packed-in defenses. Plus, despite the scoring bump last year, his usage rate was just 23%. For a wing player who doesn't otherwise stand out in terms of defense or rebounding or assists, that's not a top-20 player. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 21, 2016 16:48:35 GMT -5
For me if we keep pick it's Murray if you want a safe pick that has a ceiling that is fairly high or if you want a swing for the fences pick you take Bender. I think some people are getting way to high on Dunn. I think he will be a solid PG in this league, but far from a star. People seem to forget that he is a senior and a year older than Marcus Smart that has two years in NBA already. Dunn is also a better player than Smart in every single category. That's just not true, that's the problem, people seem to forget how good Smart was in College. At this point I would say Dunn is a better passer and shooter, but Smart is a better defender, better at getting to line, better at rebounding, better FT shooter and was the better scorer in college. The Celtics have asked Smart to play a certain role and have not unleashed him like a lottery team would. I still believe we have not come close to seeing Smarts true upside. Just compare Smarts freshman year to Dunn's, Smart was a much better player, it's was not even close. There is a reason not many Seniors get drafted in the top of the draft anymore. Everyone keeps bring it up with Hield which makes sense, but no one brings it up with Dunn. Kevin Pelton's WARP projections would have rated Smart #2 in this years draft behind only Simmons and way a head of Dunn. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 21, 2016 16:55:43 GMT -5
So you think we can get a star at #3? If so who do you think that player is? I think your views of Middleton are a little off. While not a star, he's much better than solid starter. Advanced numbers show him as a top 20 player for the last two years and he's 24 years old. He can also play both SG and SF. While his defensive numbers went down last year, they were very good the year before. Remember, Middleton just signed a decently-sized (though still below-market) extension. I'd rather have a cheap-as-dirt draft pick with star upside and the potential for 8+ years of team control than a slightly-underpaid Middleton. Middleton makes the team better, but it doesn't make them close enough to a championship contender that I'd trade upside for certainty (which is effectively what you'd be doing). ADD: I don't trust Middleton's plus/minus-based stats. I think it's less that Middleton was so good and more that his replacements were so bad. He was the only real shooter on the Bucks' roster, and when he was off the floor, Milwaukee just couldn't score against packed-in defenses. Plus, despite the scoring bump last year, his usage rate was just 23%. For a wing player who doesn't otherwise stand out in terms of defense or rebounding or assists, that's not a top-20 player. OK. I see Middleton as a perfect third fiddle on a title contender. Look how a star like Love struggles in that role, I think Middleton is perfect for that role. Think that trade would put us a star away from being contenders. You want to keep the pick, which I can understand, but who's your guy if your making that pick? Please don't say Brown!! |
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2016 17:05:10 GMT -5
There are different tiers of star. Would they be a Durant-level star away from contention? Maybe, but I think that still would have been true with, say, Bradley or Crowder as their third-best player instead. But I don't think a best-three of Middleton, Thomas, and, say, Butler or Cousins or Whiteside is a legitimate contender.
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Post by jmei on Jun 21, 2016 17:13:17 GMT -5
I'd probably go with Murray, though I could be talked into Bender or Brown.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 21, 2016 17:21:34 GMT -5
There are different tiers of star. Would they be a Durant-level star away from contention? Maybe, but I think that still would have been true with, say, Bradley or Crowder as their third-best player instead. But I don't think a best-three of Middleton, Thomas, and, say, Butler or Cousins or Whiteside is a legitimate contender. See I don't think just adding Durant allows us to get by Cleveland and beat the top teams in the West. But add Middleton, with the depth we have, then add Cousins and we are true contenders in my opinion. Butler might do that, not sure if I'd want to add both Butler and Middleton though, I would have to think about that. I don't consider Whiteside a star, but if he continues to do what he has so far, yea I think adding him makes you a contender. The key for us is to keep our good depth, something that has hurt teams like the Thunder while getting quality or star players. With all of our draft picks we should be able to do that. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 21, 2016 17:34:04 GMT -5
Everything I read about Dunn says he's likely to be an elite defender. Even if he falls short of Smart on that front, it's still damn good. Take that plus better shooting and play making skills and I'm not sure how you say no.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 21, 2016 17:47:13 GMT -5
Personally if we keep the pick I hope they take Chriss, because from most of the reports he seems like the highest upside play and watching his clips he also seems like a natural shot blocker with a nice-looking stroke. I'd be on board with taking Murray too, though I don't really like the sound of Bender- from what I've read he's being hyped like Porzingis, but while he's got some of the same skills he's not nearly the same athlete. I also really think Hield might be underrated, so if there would be a way to move down to 6-8 and add a useful piece, I would happily do that and take Hield, or even Brown- I just don't think they're good value earlier.
Couldn't really buy into a Middleton trade unless we worked out a way to also get the 10th pick or something along those lines for the same reasons Jmei's said: he's not a star, and he likely will never be one. If he were that good, the Bucks would've made the playoffs last year- there is talent on that roster and the East is weak. I'd easily take Butler over Middleton if we could get a deal done for either that had to involve the 3rd pick, because Butler can get his own shot and has really played without another good playmaker on offense (except maybe Gasol) since he got in the league, and Thibs ran him into the ground when he was still in Chicago, so I imagine with a lighter minutes load and less defensive attention he could flourish even more
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 22, 2016 5:32:00 GMT -5
Per Marc Stein the Celtics have been rebuffed in trade efforts so far. Sixers offered Danny Noel or Okafor and Danny turned it down.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 22, 2016 6:21:43 GMT -5
Most trades don't happen before draft night so it's no surprise Danny had turned it down to this point but it's interesting both are on the table.
I see both sides to the Middleton argument.
Funny thing is I've been crying about possibly drafting Brown for months now but he's the highest upside pick and he may be the highest floor pick too. At a minimum you are getting a rotational high end defensive player. At the very top, if he develops a good jump shot, you're getting a potential star. Bender may bust. Murray, may bust by having way too slow a first step and being bad enough defensively that his shooting isn't good enough to over come. He might not shoot like Korver. Dunn may have a higher floor but we live in a point guard rich environment where very god ones don't make tons of money because teams don't need them.
I'm glad Danny is being patient and knows the main job he has this offseason is not rushing into something. I think they make the pick and it's Brown and oddly enough i am close to talking myself into it being ok.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 6:57:16 GMT -5
I'm coming closer to accepting that Boston will being mostly picking players in this draft (maybe selling off 1 or 2 picks) instead of putting together a big trade. If you figure they make, at least, 2 of the picks on guys who can contribute this year, sell of 2 more and then make 4 draft and stash selections, that's not outlandish.
I know roster space is a concern but if you consider that Turner's spot is currently open (love ET but I think he's going to be too expensive for what Boston likes) and Holland's spot is as well. I can certainly see them not qualifying Zeller and would it surprise ANYONE if they walk away from Young (a disappointment, yes, but not a surprise).
That's, potentially, 4 spots and were not even counting the options to walk away from Jerebko and Johnson (should an chance to upgrade on either/both present itself).
Based on what we're hearing (which is limited, granted) it would seem that the only other possibilities are extreme overpays (hey, we almost saw it last year with the attempts to move up and get Justise).
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 22, 2016 7:01:51 GMT -5
I think there is a better chance of Sully being gone than Young. It wouldn't be wise to dump Young out right. He was the youngest player in his draft. We knew it was a 3-4 year development. He showed improvement; I don't worry about his shooting as that will come when he's comfortable on the court.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 7:39:46 GMT -5
Not sure about "better chance". I see/agree with your rationale for why they SHOULD keep young. But I don't think you just walk away from Sully. While it's not hard to envision an upgrade at his spot, his QO is not huge for what he contributes.
I'm guessing they make the QO and sit back to see what other teams are doing (maybe preempt an offer sheet with a sign and trade, even if the return isn't huge).
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 22, 2016 7:51:07 GMT -5
I think Sully is a pretty poor player and I don't think Stevens or Ainge particularly likes him. I'd be surprised if he's still on this team.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 8:23:57 GMT -5
I'm looking at it this way:
To walk away from Sully, you need to find a C that is worthy of taking up his 73 starts, 23.6 mpg, 10ppg, 8rpg and 4.1 WAR (among whatever other stats you want to look at). It will cost you more to find that upgrade and walk away from him than it will to find an upgrade in the draft for Young's roster spot (I won't bore you with the stats since we all agree, he's contribute nothing). They will attempt to do so, of course.
In the end, can I see Young on next year's squad more than I can see Sully? Sure. But my point was from the stance of "having" to use more of the draft picks than we had hoped and a potential roster crunch. Without anything else happening (trades and FA signings), it's easier to see them walking away from Young's 1.8Mn (and ZERO production) than Sully's LT 6Mn QO (with starter production).
I know these "in a vacuum" exercises only go so far. I was solely addressing the point of 8 draft picks vs roster spots. Potentially a silly discussion since roster construction is more holistic than that. Moving on . . .
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 22, 2016 8:24:41 GMT -5
I don't think Sullinger is a particularly bad player, but he's never proved that he's willing or able to stay in good enough shape to be anything more than a decent role player/marginal starter maybe? Even if a QO isn't much, what's the point? If someone throws a big offer sheet at him were not matching, and there's little sense in tying up cap for a guy that realistically we probably don't really want a whole lot. He certainly hasn't done too much to endear himself to the front office/coaching staff conditioning wise
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 8:26:46 GMT -5
After hearing last night that Boston has been rebuffed in their attempts to trade for, among others, Gordon Hayward, "league sources" are saying that he's unhappy in Utah and the Jazz are attempting to accommodate him in a trade.
Per HoopsCritic (admittedly, I don't know much about them so take it for what it's worth).
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 22, 2016 8:39:41 GMT -5
How many predraft trades go down? I can't remember any. Teams will wait until draft night - likely when they are on the clock so all rumors are likely to end in one team rebuffing the other or them not coming to terms. Ainge has said these rumors you hear are basically 5 minute discussions to take temperatures and then the trades that happen come together quickly. In the NBA there's not a whole lot to negotiate. It's not like baseball where each organization has over 100 players to make combinations with.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 8:47:30 GMT -5
Yeah. Often the team actually takes the player first and then trades during/after the draft.
Especially if any trades involve cap implications, they may need to wait for the league year (and new salary cap) to begin.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 8:51:13 GMT -5
Can the Murray/Hield fans let me know what they see in them?
Bender really hasn't been compared to Porzingis by the way he plays basketball.
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Post by beantown on Jun 22, 2016 9:14:42 GMT -5
Personally if we keep the pick, I like the high floor/high upside pick with Jaylen Brown. He is:
1. An absolute freak athlete with a great motor. In this draft, I grab the Jae Crowder-esque two-way player in a heartbeat. The defensive potential eases concerns about shooting problems on the offensive end. Leading into...
2. Poor shooting BUT which results from inconsistent form, not shooting touch. When the form is pure, the shots fall, especially from the right quadrant; therefore I believe this really is an issue that proper coaching can correct. People forget the 39% 3FG that led to his high recruitment rank out of HS... this isn't a "broken shot" issue ala Simmons. Jb has quick, clean mechanics when he's not inexplicably leaning back or forward or changing release points. The low FT% is a red flag, but again, could have a lot to do with inconsistent form.
3. In an open driving lane, utterly unstoppable. Finishes much better with the right hand than the left, which is certainly a weakness at present, leading to predictability... but the burst is unreal. Cal plays a two center offense, which clogs driving lanes and caused all sorts of ugly run-ins for Brown throughout the season, but in the wide open Stevens offense (especially with KO at the stretch) his full potential can be unlocked. Here, for me, is where the offensive ceiling stretches highest... if he ever learns to exploit opened NBA lanes, this kid can be a superstar.
Biggest red flags for me are the low FT% mentioned above and below-average basketball IQ. For me, Jb is a narrowly stronger prospect than Dunn, and well above Hield/Murray. I can't buy into Bender because there just isn't enough tape available to make an informed decision -- if that's the pick, I'll respect it and reserve judgment until we've seen him in green.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,532
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2016 9:16:53 GMT -5
Bender looked bad in front of Boston personnel according to reports. His stock is dropping in general. I would definitely stay away.
Murray can shoot, but he's not big or fast, which will definitely be hard for him to overcome.
Hield is just as good of a shooter, is a better athlete, but isn't a good passer and is a senior so he's older.
I personally still like Hield more simply because Murray's speed really concerns me. His first step is non existent. I don't see how he will creat for himself.
Dunn, Brown, Hield, Murray, Chriss... None of these guys are guaranteed hits at #3, which worries me. I think I'd prefer a trade for Okafor and Covington than keeping the pick, but if we can trade up from 16 to around 8, and snag 2 of the above players in the draft, I'll be very happy too. I may be team Brown at #3 right now, but I'll trust whatever Danny thinks.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,532
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2016 9:19:53 GMT -5
If we can add in Young/Hunter to get Covington too, I'd pounce on that, even with my complete hatred of Duke and Okafor's defensive question marks going forward. His post offense is really incredible for someone his age.
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Post by bosox89 on Jun 22, 2016 9:40:22 GMT -5
At this point i'm not opposed to moving down for someone like Chriss. If the Suns want to give us #13 to move up 1 spot and then we could package 16 & 13 to move up, I would do that. If Minnesota wants to give us there pick next year to ensure they get Dunn then i might do that as i like the 17 draft and Minnesota might still be late lotto next year.
I'm not really sold on anyone so if you're drafting mine as well get as many kicks at the can as you can in the lottery.
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Post by jmei on Jun 22, 2016 10:32:48 GMT -5
The "take as many bites of the apple as you can" philosophy works in MLB and the NFL, when you have plenty of roster spots and practice reps to work with. But in the NBA, when you have 15 rosters spots and limited in-game and practice reps to give to young players, I'm not sure it works.
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