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Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 10:40:30 GMT -5
@statcenter:
Jaylen Brown scouting report:
Pros: got to FT line a lot, highly rated in HS, appearance of a real player
Cons: literally everything else
I think he can be a good player but if you watched him play this year, it was really ugly. I'm ok with him around 8 or so if they can trade up later, but at #3 I would be pretty upset. Not sure where the "he's got a really high floor" comments are coming from but I don't think that is close to reality unfortunately.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 22, 2016 10:56:28 GMT -5
What do people think about snagging Maker with 16 if he is still available? I know the reports are he is raw, but with so many picks we can afford the gamble.
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Post by bosox89 on Jun 22, 2016 11:05:25 GMT -5
The "take as many bites of the apple as you can" philosophy works in MLB and the NFL, when you have plenty of roster spots and practice reps to work with. But in the NBA, when you have 15 rosters spots and limited in-game and practice reps to give to young players, I'm not sure it works. Right as far as the mid-late picks where you get guys like Rozier, Hunter, Young and Mickey sure. Im talking about lottery picks. I think you need to use the fact that teams want Dunn to your advantage instead of taking a Brown or Chriss when you can move down and still get them, as well as adding another asset in a potential lotto pick next year (more trade bait) or #13 from the Suns where you can package other picks to move up into that 8 range (Kings might consider). 3-9 is a crap shoot so if you are able to swing 2 of those guys then I'd be down for it regardless of how much immediate playing time they would get. I'm firmly in the camp of bringing in 2 new guys from this draft to the 15 man roster and using all the picks and guys like Young and Hunter to move up. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 11:08:03 GMT -5
@statcenter: Jaylen Brown scouting report: Pros: got to FT line a lot, highly rated in HS, appearance of a real player Cons: literally everything else I think he can be a good player but if you watched him play this year, it was really ugly. I'm ok with him around 8 or so if they can trade up later, but at #3 I would be pretty upset. Not sure where the "he's got a really high floor" comments are coming from but I don't think that is close to reality unfortunately. He doesn't have a high floor at all, those comments are flat out wrong. Everything I have seen shows him as one of the biggest hit or miss players in Draft. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 11:17:59 GMT -5
I think Sully is a pretty poor player and I don't think Stevens or Ainge particularly likes him. I'd be surprised if he's still on this team. Advanced metrics show Sully as one of our best players. We played our best Basketball when he was playing well. I truly believe Danny tried to motivate Sully to get into better shape. Stevens was forcing Sully to get away from jacking up threes, which you see he accomplished. Now Sully might not be back if some team gives him some massive offer, not because the team dislikes him. Not sure if you realize the hole on this roster if Sully departs. |
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Post by bosox89 on Jun 22, 2016 11:30:11 GMT -5
If Jared Sandoval can't be motivated to get into shape in a contract year, then i would be terrified to see how he shows up next year if we give him the 12 M AAV hes probably gonna get.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 11:36:07 GMT -5
"Flat out wrong"?? UMass, I think the problem is that our styles of debate are too different.  Seriously though. Most reports I have read suggest that his current body type and elite athleticsm put him in a position to defend in the NBA next year. By definition, that would suggest a higher floor. The ability to play even a little D will often dictate whether a player, especially a rookie, can stay on the floor. With Bender/Murray/Hield (physical limitations) and Chriss (motor), this automatically reduces their floor. Dunn has the physical skills but, like Marcus Smart, if he can't play PG, he's going to play in positions/situations where his overall skill set is not maximized. In a league where having the physical skills to guard multiple positions (by all accounts, Brown has that - can't find one report that says otherwise) that is big. I'd also think that many evaluators are going deeper than just last year. He was one of the top recruits in the country but playing on a team that probably crushed his style (2 bigs in the middle clogging up the lanes that Brown needed to thrive). Big hype (and the expectation to lead a middle-of-the-road team into national prominence) leads to poor decisions . . . voila. Awful year. All that being said, I'd offer up another option in summarizing Brown that is different than boom or bust. I actually agree that his floor is high AND he's one of the farthest away from his ceiling. I think there is SUCH a wide number of outcomes with Brown. But being able to defend as a worst case scenario is probably leading to the high floor "assumptions" (I use that word bc I haven't necessarily seen that phrase used on him - I'm more adding up the pieces). |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 12:00:38 GMT -5
"Flat out wrong"?? UMass, I think the problem is that our styles of debate are too different. Seriously though. Most reports I have read suggest that his current body type and elite athleticsm put him in a position to defend in the NBA next year. By definition, that would suggest a higher floor. The ability to play even a little D will often dictate whether a player, especially a rookie, can stay on the floor. With Bender/Murray/Hield (physical limitations) and Chriss (motor), this automatically reduces their floor. Dunn has the physical skills but, like Marcus Smart, if he can't play PG, he's going to play in positions/situations where his overall skill set is not maximized. In a league where having the physical skills to guard multiple positions (by all accounts, Brown has that - can't find one report that says otherwise) that is big. I'd also think that many evaluators are going deeper than just last year. He was one of the top recruits in the country but playing on a team that probably crushed his style (2 bigs in the middle clogging up the lanes that Brown needed to thrive). Big hype (and the expectation to lead a middle-of-the-road team into national prominence) leads to poor decisions . . . voila. Awful year. All that being said, I'd offer up another option in summarizing Brown that is different than boom or bust. I actually agree that his floor is high AND he's one of the farthest away from his ceiling. I think there is SUCH a wide number of outcomes with Brown. But being able to defend as a worst case scenario is probably leading to the high floor "assumptions" (I use that word bc I haven't necessarily seen that phrase used on him - I'm more adding up the pieces). Yes flat out wrong. While Brown could become a good or elite defender he has a long way to go. He is in no way already a good or elite defender. With an NBA ready body and off the charts athleticism he couldn't get close to a steal or block a game. He also commits a ton of fouls. Hence why I don't think he has a high floor for a top 10 pick. You can try and blame his bad season on the team and coach, but real reason is that he lacks true Basketball skills and a feel for the game. He has an NBA ready body, great length and great athleticism. So if you can develop his skills and feel for game he could become a star down the road, but it's going to take a lot of time and effort, with a high chance he never comes close to reaching his potential. Can you say Kendrick Brown 2.0? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 12:27:29 GMT -5
If Jared Sandoval can't be motivated to get into shape in a contract year, then i would be terrified to see how he shows up next year if we give him the 12 M AAV hes probably gonna get. Sure you can worry about that, but for me his weight is about same now as it was in College. Sully is just a wide guy, look at his lower half, he's built like a tank. In other words I don't worry he pulls a Sandoval and eats his way out of game. Not sure about NBA rules on contracts but I would add clauses about weight into contract if that's allowed. |
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 12:38:51 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 12:42:33 GMT -5
That's fair. I guess I've seen more scouting reports that say he can D in the league than I've seen that say otherwise. Since I didn't watch any Cal games (and, even if I did, am NOT an NBA evaluator) I'm left to thoughts based only on what I've read.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 13:14:44 GMT -5
What do people think about snagging Maker with 16 if he is still available? I know the reports are he is raw, but with so many picks we can afford the gamble. He's raw but does have some skills and the upside is huge. I wouldn't be against taking him there depending who's available. I just have a feeling a couple of really good players might slide to 16. Right now I'm looking to see if one of Sabonis, Ellenson, Poeltl or Davis fall to 16. I also love Bembry at 16. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 13:20:25 GMT -5
Unrelated but Wojo is reporting the first "Draft Day" deal (yes, it's day before but . . .). Indiana is getting Teague. Utah is getting GHill. Still waiting to see what Atlanta is getting (what Utah is giving up and/or if there are other pieces from Ind/Atl).
EDIT: Looks like it's #12 to Atlanta
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 13:37:02 GMT -5
Wow could see trading 12 for Teague but not Hill.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2016 13:41:17 GMT -5
Hill flies under the radar but he is a very productive player.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 13:42:40 GMT -5
Teague is a better scorer and distributor (15.7 ppg to 12.1 ppg; 5.9 apg to 3.5 apg) but, based on Plus/Minus a significantly worse defender (-0.9 to +0.5). WAR is in Hill's favor (5.9 to 3.5). Hill 2 years older. Contracts identical (both at 8Mn for this year only).
Always thought Teague was SIGNIFICANTLY better.
Related - I'm still not sure I understand Defensive Plus/Minus. As an example, Bradley was negative despite making the all D team. I'm a former math major that loves sports and yet some of these stats still make my head spin.
#mindisthefirsttogo
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nomar
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Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2016 13:44:48 GMT -5
On Bradley's defensive metrics. They love him vs PGs and hate him against bigger 2s. He's arguably the best on ball defender against lead guards, but not too effective against bigger assignments.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 22, 2016 13:47:32 GMT -5
This is interesting when you consider the rumors earlier this year of the Sixers being close to dealing Noel for Teague.
This is obviously a big stretch, but I wonder if 16 and 23 can get a pick around 10 that could be flipped for Noel? Probably not, but that would be a nice deal.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Jun 22, 2016 13:59:57 GMT -5
Jabari would be awesome here. He's got a Carmeloesque offensive game.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 14:02:42 GMT -5
As usual, it's hard to pinpoint things based on rumors but I keep hearing to takes to the Noel/Okafor trades. 1 take is that Philly is shopping them around to reduce the redundancy they will have (Okafor/Noel/Simmons/Embiid/Saric all competing for time at the 2 big spots - of course, Simmons/Saric could spend some time at 3 and Embiid has JUST been cleared to scrimmage).
The other take is that Philly desperately wants Dunn and is using Okafor/Noel to get him.
If the reality is the latter, you don't get the deal without #3 (at worst, Dunn doesn't drop past Sacramento).
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 14:11:02 GMT -5
My quick thought on the Utah/Indy/ATL trade:
Hill > #12 > Teague
Not sure what the Pacers are doing here. They're letting Solomon Hill walk for no reason. They signed Monta. They traded Hill for another PG, who is likely a worse fit next with Monta. Oh well.
Chavo, you and I are thinking alike here. I've wanted Boston to package picks to move up somewhere from 8-12 to get a player like Brown or Davis. Trading for Noel seems unlikely with picks in that range at this time.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 22, 2016 14:15:25 GMT -5
Teague is a better scorer and distributor (15.7 ppg to 12.1 ppg; 5.9 apg to 3.5 apg) but, based on Plus/Minus a significantly worse defender (-0.9 to +0.5). WAR is in Hill's favor (5.9 to 3.5). Hill 2 years older. Contracts identical (both at 8Mn for this year only). Always thought Teague was SIGNIFICANTLY better. Related - I'm still not sure I understand Defensive Plus/Minus. As an example, Bradley was negative despite making the all D team. I'm a former math major that loves sports and yet some of these stats still make my head spin. #mindisthefirsttogo Real Plus Minus is players effect per 100 possessions. So who you play with matters. When you look at Bradley's last 3 years the first 2 he had positive dRPM. Then last year playing with Thomas he had a negative one. At same time Bradley had best oRPM last year of those 3 years. So playing with Thomas a great offensive player, but horrible defensive player improved his oRPM, but deceased his dRPM. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 22, 2016 14:18:55 GMT -5
Bulls getting Rose, Justin Holiday and '17 2nd rounder from NY for Lopez, Calderon and Grant - multiple sources
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Post by cto94 on Jun 22, 2016 14:19:48 GMT -5
My quick thought on the Utah/Indy/ATL trade: Hill > #12 > Teague Not sure what the Pacers are doing here. They're letting Solomon Hill walk for no reason. They signed Monta. They traded Hill for another PG, who is likely a worse fit next with Monta. Oh well. Chavo, you and I are thinking alike here. I've wanted Boston to package picks to move up somewhere from 8-12 to get a player like Brown or Davis. Trading for Noel seems unlikely with picks in that range at this time. If a trade could be found to do that I think it would be ideal. The only issue though is that it kind of locks us into going with a guard with the top pick, which is fine, but I think there are valid concerns that have been raised with Murray (though I do think he seems like he has the body type/age profile to improve his athleticism in an NBA strength and conditioning program) and to me, Dunn at 3 feels like a reach- he's not a good fit with the personnel already on the roster or our team needs. He fits the high character/high work ethic mould and he's clearly very talented, but what are we going to do with another 6'4 athletic guard with questionable jumper and excellent defense? On the Pacers, I'd generally agree, but I'd also have to give Larry Bird the benefit of the doubt, he's been pretty good at spotting talent/fit over the years, and it seems like he may have just bought low on Teague, who apparently played on a partially torn patellar tendon this year and was way better last season |
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Post by cto94 on Jun 22, 2016 14:23:46 GMT -5
Also just saw (and have heard for a while) that the Suns are shopping Bledsoe and interested in Dunn as a replacement, which should give us additional leverage in trying to deal that pick or potentially dropping down a spot and picking up an additional pick/player given that Dunn seems to be in pretty high demand among teams rumored to be trying to move up
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