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2016 Boston Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by cto94 on Jun 29, 2016 15:40:13 GMT -5
I'm of the assumption Crabbe is getting around $13M/per. I'd also take Marvin Williams over Amir Johnson. I like Marvin Williams and Harrison Barnes about the same. Both pretty good, benefit the team, allow you to space the floor and not get killed on the boards. He would be a valuable addition to the team, even at $15M. The issue with positive additions like Marvin is: the longer term contracts they'll likely require. Boston isn't super unique in the ability to sign 2 max contracts, most teams will be able to as well under the new cap jump. But Boston would be able to add 2 max players to a really good roster of superb role players. That's likely the differentiating factor of them compared to others. I could definitely see them going after Howard on a 1 year "max" deal. Not sure he would want that though. I hope your wrong about Crabbe getting 13 million a year, because if that's true Sullinger is getting a max level deal. I don't think it translates like that honestly, if sullinger were a good defender/shot blocker in addition to his rebounding and offense, I could see it, but as it is, I'd be shocked if sullinger gets anything more than 15m a year, and surprised if it's more than $12-13m |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2016 15:58:52 GMT -5
I hope your wrong about Crabbe getting 13 million a year, because if that's true Sullinger is getting a max level deal. I don't think it translates like that honestly, if sullinger were a good defender/shot blocker in addition to his rebounding and offense, I could see it, but as it is, I'd be shocked if sullinger gets anything more than 15m a year, and surprised if it's more than $12-13m Advanced stats show Sullinger as a good defender. He's not a shot blocker, but he can defend. Again if the market says Crabbe is going to get 13 million after one so so year, Sullinger will get Max. Now I don't think market will be that crazy, I predicted 6-8 million a year for Crabbe on long term deal. But a few posters think it could be a lot higher and no one really knows for sure. We have never seen an increase like this before. |
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Post by cto94 on Jun 29, 2016 16:49:10 GMT -5
I don't think it translates like that honestly, if sullinger were a good defender/shot blocker in addition to his rebounding and offense, I could see it, but as it is, I'd be shocked if sullinger gets anything more than 15m a year, and surprised if it's more than $12-13m Advanced stats show Sullinger as a good defender. He's not a shot blocker, but he can defend. Again if the market says Crabbe is going to get 13 million after one so so year, Sullinger will get Max. Now I don't think market will be that crazy, I predicted 6-8 million a year for Crabbe on long term deal. But a few posters think it could be a lot higher and no one really knows for sure. We have never seen an increase like this before. Yea but that's far less valuable than a legit rim protector. Demarre Carroll got 15m last year, Wes Matthews got 15-17m a year, so projecting Crabbe, who's significantly younger than either, to get something like $10-$13m seems relatively reasonable, depending on how much teams value the youth/development side of the signing. Sullinger has conditioning concerns, doesn't necessarily pass the eye test defensively, especially when you consider the teammates he played with this year, and doesn't offer much in the way of perimeter shooting. Value doesn't translate position to position like that: those are two players with extremely different skill sets, and nobody has talked about sullinger as being a max guy. Even if Crabbe gets $13m a year, it's highly unlikely that anyone would pay anything near the max for sullinger. Look at last year: compare Carroll or Matthews' deals to Amir Johnson: higher AAV, more years for the wings who can shoot, even if the big who can't might provide similar value. I'll concede that if you look at it on a dollars for wins basis, maybe sullinger would merit a max deal if Crabbe could get as much as $10-$13m, but that's not how the league works, and there's a premium being paid for shooting right now that Sullinger will not get. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 29, 2016 17:43:00 GMT -5
There was a good article that I can't find right now about why beside OKC, Boston is the best destination for Durant. They made a compelling case. Very good cheap young nucleus. Cap room to add, 2 max guys this, year and a 3rd next year to go along with 2 more likely top 5 picks the next 2 years. They also have a fun coach to play for, great ownership and a great fan base.
I doubt Danny can get him here but it's not like it's ridiculously far fetched he might want to.
The dream scenario is adding KD and Horford this year. The Nets sucking and getting a top pick in a great draft at the top, adding a third max guy next year all the while not having to trade any of our guys we will have bird rights too. Dynasty....
Ok now back to reality.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2016 20:25:12 GMT -5
Advanced stats show Sullinger as a good defender. He's not a shot blocker, but he can defend. Again if the market says Crabbe is going to get 13 million after one so so year, Sullinger will get Max. Now I don't think market will be that crazy, I predicted 6-8 million a year for Crabbe on long term deal. But a few posters think it could be a lot higher and no one really knows for sure. We have never seen an increase like this before. Yea but that's far less valuable than a legit rim protector. Demarre Carroll got 15m last year, Wes Matthews got 15-17m a year, so projecting Crabbe, who's significantly younger than either, to get something like $10-$13m seems relatively reasonable, depending on how much teams value the youth/development side of the signing. Sullinger has conditioning concerns, doesn't necessarily pass the eye test defensively, especially when you consider the teammates he played with this year, and doesn't offer much in the way of perimeter shooting. Value doesn't translate position to position like that: those are two players with extremely different skill sets, and nobody has talked about sullinger as being a max guy. Even if Crabbe gets $13m a year, it's highly unlikely that anyone would pay anything near the max for sullinger. Look at last year: compare Carroll or Matthews' deals to Amir Johnson: higher AAV, more years for the wings who can shoot, even if the big who can't might provide similar value. I'll concede that if you look at it on a dollars for wins basis, maybe sullinger would merit a max deal if Crabbe could get as much as $10-$13m, but that's not how the league works, and there's a premium being paid for shooting right now that Sullinger will not get. Yes Crabbe is younger, but he's no where near the players Carroll and Mathews were when they got deals. We are talking about Allen Crabbe that played on Portland right? The guy that averaged 10.3 points last season, ranked 68th among SG in RPM and had a win share below 1 win. Sullinger had a RPM that ranked 11th among centers and 7.29 win shares. Sullingers RPM ranks him 33 among all players and his win share ranks him 47th among all players. Crabbe win share is 247 among all players and RPM is 358 among all players. Crabbe right now just isn't a very good player. When I said 6-8 million I was adding in premium for shooting, young player that can improve and teams with crazy amounts of cap space and not enough players to spend it on. People hate on Sullinger due to conditioning and seem to forget how productive he's been for years now. Also he's still very young, same age as Crabbe but has been so much more productive. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 6:53:22 GMT -5
People hate on Sullinger for his conditioning, lack of motor, lack of athleticism and terrible shot selection amongst other things.
You can spout all the questionable advanced statistics you want with Sully and it's not going to change my mind that he's not a player I would build my team with if I were an NBA GM. This is baseball where you have no salary cap or football without guaranteed deals. In this sport, the pieces need to fit and they need to fit at the right time. It would be one thing if Sully were s birds rights guy they were signing AFTER acquiring their better players but I'm not eating cap room for a guy like him. One year deal? Fine maybe, but I'm not having his money affect the free agent money we have the next two years.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 10:02:11 GMT -5
Yes Crabbe is younger, but he's no where near the players Carroll and Mathews were when they got deals. We are talking about Allen Crabbe that played on Portland right? The guy that averaged 10.3 points last season, ranked 68th among SG in RPM and had a win share below 1 win. Sullinger had a RPM that ranked 11th among centers and 7.29 win shares. Sullingers RPM ranks him 33 among all players and his win share ranks him 47th among all players. Crabbe win share is 247 among all players and RPM is 358 among all players. Crabbe right now just isn't a very good player. When I said 6-8 million I was adding in premium for shooting, young player that can improve and teams with crazy amounts of cap space and not enough players to spend it on. People hate on Sullinger due to conditioning and seem to forget how productive he's been for years now. Also he's still very young, same age as Crabbe but has been so much more productive. I'm taking Zach Lowe's opinion over yours, and here's what he said yesterday on ESPN: "Guys entering free agency today with resumes equivalent to what Biyombo, Davis and Teletovic carried a year ago are going to get paid a ton. There is no point in putting Kent Bazemore, Allen Crabbe, Ian Mahinmi or Jerebko (if Boston lets him walk) on this list; those guys are going to bank $10 million per season or, in at least Bazemore's case, much more." The premium for shooting is bigger than what you thought, clearly, and GM's don't just hand out max contracts by saying, "Oh look that guy's RPM is super high, let's throw $20m a year at him." Sully can't play starters minutes cause he's too fat, can't block shots, can't really stretch the floor much, can't run the floor or be a really effective roll man on the pick and roll cause he doesn't have the athleticism. Whatever the advanced stats say, that's not a max player in the modern NBA Edit: The list he's referencing is his list of potential cheap finds in free agency, which he expressly left Crabbe off of because he won't be cheap |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 10:05:03 GMT -5
We are spending a ton of time on Crabbe when the Celtics won't even kick the tires on him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 10:15:13 GMT -5
So RPM is a questionable advanced stat? How about Pelton WARP projections that list Sullinger 8th among free agents in future production.
Cap space is great and I would clearly take Durant and Horford. Problem is I'm realistic and know chances of that happening are slim, very slim. If you can't get them who are you going to sign with cap space?
I would much rather sign Sullinger if we miss out on top guys this year and if you need cap space in future trade him. When you have all the picks we have dumping a contract will not be hard. You wanna know what hard? Getting a young productive player like Sullinger. You don't just dump him for nothing because he's not KG and you maybe can get a free agent and maybe you can't.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 10:18:36 GMT -5
We are spending a ton of time on Crabbe when the Celtics won't even kick the tires on him. Well they might if we end up dealing Bradley or Crowder, which is a distinct possibility- those guys are probably going to draw a ton of interest as excellent defenders and pretty good shooters making a combined $15m a year. I don't know what deal we might do that would include them, but my guess is that if any significant deal is made, at least one of those two guys will likely be involved. Plus Crabbe presents an interesting case study on the market as a whole, and how shooting and upside might be valued |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 10:23:05 GMT -5
What would I do? I'd go status quo this year and play the free agent game next year. This is not the year to take a gamble on a contract. If you can have Sully on a one year deal then fine. You need to spend some money to get to the floor anyways but I'm not signing that guy long term not a chance in hell if do that.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 10:25:54 GMT -5
So RPM is a questionable advanced stat? How about Pelton WARP projections that list Sullinger 8th among free agents in future production. Cap space is great and I would clearly take Durant and Horford. Problem is I'm realistic and know chances of that happening are slim, very slim. If you can't get them who are you going to sign with cap space? I would much rather sign Sullinger if we miss out on top guys this year and if you need cap space in future trade him. When you have all the picks we have dumping a contract will not be hard. You wanna know what hard? Getting a young productive player like Sullinger. You don't just dump him for nothing because he's not KG and you maybe can get a free agent and maybe you can't. Pelton literally includes nothing except stats in his projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he's never seen Sullinger play. And that's really not the point- you said if Crabbe gets $10m+, sully is going to get a max deal. Nobody wants Sully on this team on a max deal, especially when the fit is questionable, no matter what the stats say. We'll have matching rights anyway so it's a non-issue, if you're seriously in the running for Horford or Durant though, let him walk if he gets more than $12-$15m because he's not going to move the needle much and he's honestly shown pretty limited development since we drafted him and no commitment to actually getting himself in shape. And the argument that we could dump a contract if it turns out to be a bad one by packaging picks is a terrible one, if you're worried about the contract being potentially that bad, then you don't sign it. Easy. We almost certainly have a high lottery pick again next year and probably the year after that, so I'm not too worried about replacing productive young guys like him, and if he turns out to be what I at least think he is then you don't waste picks dumping his deal that you shouldn't have signed in the first place. |
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 30, 2016 10:42:43 GMT -5
What would I do? I'd go status quo this year and play the free agent game next year. This is not the year to take a gamble on a contract. If you can have Sully on a one year deal then fine. You need to spend some money to get to the floor anyways but I'm not signing that guy long term not a chance in hell if do that. I'm with you. Let the guys develop more, Smart (and to a lesser extent, Brown) need a ton of playing time and responsibility. I'm sure Boston will sign someone but I don't have a good indication of who it will be. Amir and JJ should get their options picked up in most scenarios too. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 10:43:18 GMT -5
So RPM is a questionable advanced stat? How about Pelton WARP projections that list Sullinger 8th among free agents in future production. Cap space is great and I would clearly take Durant and Horford. Problem is I'm realistic and know chances of that happening are slim, very slim. If you can't get them who are you going to sign with cap space? I would much rather sign Sullinger if we miss out on top guys this year and if you need cap space in future trade him. When you have all the picks we have dumping a contract will not be hard. You wanna know what hard? Getting a young productive player like Sullinger. You don't just dump him for nothing because he's not KG and you maybe can get a free agent and maybe you can't. Pelton literally includes nothing except stats in his projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he's never seen Sullinger play. And that's really not the point- you said if Crabbe gets $10m+, sully is going to get a max deal. Nobody wants Sully on this team on a max deal, especially when the fit is questionable, no matter what the stats say. We'll have matching rights anyway so it's a non-issue, if you're seriously in the running for Horford or Durant though, let him walk if he gets more than $12-$15m because he's not going to move the needle much and he's honestly shown pretty limited development since we drafted him and no commitment to actually getting himself in shape. And the argument that we could dump a contract if it turns out to be a bad one by packaging picks is a terrible one, if you're worried about the contract being potentially that bad, then you don't sign it. Easy. We almost certainly have a high lottery pick again next year and probably the year after that, so I'm not too worried about replacing productive young guys like him, and if he turns out to be what I at least think he is then you don't waste picks dumping his deal that you shouldn't have signed in the first place. Your making stuff up at this point. I didn't say if Crabbe get 10 plus million, I said if he gets 13 plus million. Go read the post! |
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 10:51:06 GMT -5
Pelton literally includes nothing except stats in his projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he's never seen Sullinger play. And that's really not the point- you said if Crabbe gets $10m+, sully is going to get a max deal. Nobody wants Sully on this team on a max deal, especially when the fit is questionable, no matter what the stats say. We'll have matching rights anyway so it's a non-issue, if you're seriously in the running for Horford or Durant though, let him walk if he gets more than $12-$15m because he's not going to move the needle much and he's honestly shown pretty limited development since we drafted him and no commitment to actually getting himself in shape. And the argument that we could dump a contract if it turns out to be a bad one by packaging picks is a terrible one, if you're worried about the contract being potentially that bad, then you don't sign it. Easy. We almost certainly have a high lottery pick again next year and probably the year after that, so I'm not too worried about replacing productive young guys like him, and if he turns out to be what I at least think he is then you don't waste picks dumping his deal that you shouldn't have signed in the first place. Your making stuff up at this point. I didn't say if Crabbe get 10 plus million, I said if he gets 13 plus million. Go read the post! You said if he gets $13m, not $13 plus, and the difference is minimal anyway. If Lowe is suggesting that $10m is his floor, $10-$13m is probably a reasonable salary range, and either way, there is no chance that Sullinger gets a max deal, even if Crabbe gets $15m a year. This has now become a pretty pointless argument clearly, so I'll leave it at that. In other news, both Zeller and Sullinger got the QO |
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 10:51:28 GMT -5
And the Durant meeting is on Saturday
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 10:53:03 GMT -5
What would I do? I'd go status quo this year and play the free agent game next year. This is not the year to take a gamble on a contract. If you can have Sully on a one year deal then fine. You need to spend some money to get to the floor anyways but I'm not signing that guy long term not a chance in hell if do that. Ok if that's your plan. Less than 1% chance I would say that Sully signs one year deal, so he's gone. Who do you replace him with and still keep your cap space for next year? Because I don't see many free agents doing one year deals this year, this is their time to cash in. Do you trade for a player like Monroe? You have to add at least one big if not two. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 10:55:21 GMT -5
Your making stuff up at this point. I didn't say if Crabbe get 10 plus million, I said if he gets 13 plus million. Go read the post! You said if he gets $13m, not $13 plus, and the difference is minimal anyway. If Lowe is suggesting that $10m is his floor, $10-$13m is probably a reasonable salary range, and either way, there is no chance that Sullinger gets a max deal, even if Crabbe gets $15m a year. This has now become a pretty pointless argument clearly, so I'll leave it at that. In other news, both Zeller and Sullinger got the QO Do you have link to Lowe article saying Crabbe floor is 10 million? I have to read that. |
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 30, 2016 10:59:18 GMT -5
What would I do? I'd go status quo this year and play the free agent game next year. This is not the year to take a gamble on a contract. If you can have Sully on a one year deal then fine. You need to spend some money to get to the floor anyways but I'm not signing that guy long term not a chance in hell if do that. Ok if that's your plan. Less than 1% chance I would say that Sully signs one year deal, so he's gone. Who do you replace him with and still keep your cap space for next year? Because I don't see many free agents doing one year deals this year, this is their time to cash in. Do you trade for a player like Monroe? You have to add at least one big if not two. Nope. Don't even consider it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 11:03:14 GMT -5
So RPM is a questionable advanced stat? How about Pelton WARP projections that list Sullinger 8th among free agents in future production. Cap space is great and I would clearly take Durant and Horford. Problem is I'm realistic and know chances of that happening are slim, very slim. If you can't get them who are you going to sign with cap space? I would much rather sign Sullinger if we miss out on top guys this year and if you need cap space in future trade him. When you have all the picks we have dumping a contract will not be hard. You wanna know what hard? Getting a young productive player like Sullinger. You don't just dump him for nothing because he's not KG and you maybe can get a free agent and maybe you can't. Pelton literally includes nothing except stats in his projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he's never seen Sullinger play. And that's really not the point- you said if Crabbe gets $10m+, sully is going to get a max deal. Nobody wants Sully on this team on a max deal, especially when the fit is questionable, no matter what the stats say. We'll have matching rights anyway so it's a non-issue, if you're seriously in the running for Horford or Durant though, let him walk if he gets more than $12-$15m because he's not going to move the needle much and he's honestly shown pretty limited development since we drafted him and no commitment to actually getting himself in shape. And the argument that we could dump a contract if it turns out to be a bad one by packaging picks is a terrible one, if you're worried about the contract being potentially that bad, then you don't sign it. Easy. We almost certainly have a high lottery pick again next year and probably the year after that, so I'm not too worried about replacing productive young guys like him, and if he turns out to be what I at least think he is then you don't waste picks dumping his deal that you shouldn't have signed in the first place. All advanced stats are based off of stats and numbers, they don't include scouting. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 11:15:32 GMT -5
What would I do? I'd go status quo this year and play the free agent game next year. This is not the year to take a gamble on a contract. If you can have Sully on a one year deal then fine. You need to spend some money to get to the floor anyways but I'm not signing that guy long term not a chance in hell if do that. Ok if that's your plan. Less than 1% chance I would say that Sully signs one year deal, so he's gone. Who do you replace him with and still keep your cap space for next year? Because I don't see many free agents doing one year deals this year, this is their time to cash in. Do you trade for a player like Monroe? You have to add at least one big if not two. I don't know, I'll have to see how the market unfolds and if the market unfolds how you are suggesting (there won't be any one year deals everyone will get massive multi year contracts) then I'm even happier to sit this thing out. I'd rather play Mickey and give all my players bonuses for working hard and developing while I watch all these other teams give out lousy contracts and eat into their cap room for next year. Yes the cap is going up again but the free agent pool is even deeper and a lot of these guys like Durant will be signing 2 year deals with an opt out next year for the bigger cash in. These meetings have proven the Celtics are somewhat of a destination for these guys and if you are sitting there next year with space for 3 max guys... This young core - Stevens and a top 3 pick again plus future draft assets I'll roll the dice on that. And if you strike out there then you can start taking your gambles but not before then. Sully isn't worth dampening that plan. Also, don't think it's not possible he signs for one year so he can be u restricted next year in a bigger cap environment |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2016 11:39:39 GMT -5
I don't think there's any chance we can sign 3 max free agents next off season, as those deals are a % of cap. To sign two this year we need to renounce all free agents like Zeller, Sullinger and Turner. We also need to not pick up our non guaranteed contracts.
We talk of players like Crabbe getting long term deals in the 10-13 million range on long term deal and Marvin Williams getting 2 year deal for 38 million or 3 year deals for 50 million I just don't see Sullinger not getting a big long term deal this year. Only chance we keep him on one year deal is if no one offers him an offer sheet and I just don't see that happening. I hope your right though.
My worry with replacing Sullinger with Mickey is that team does worst next year and are no longer seen as an up and coming young team as they are now. Which is why free agents are finally knocking on our door.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 11:54:30 GMT -5
You said if he gets $13m, not $13 plus, and the difference is minimal anyway. If Lowe is suggesting that $10m is his floor, $10-$13m is probably a reasonable salary range, and either way, there is no chance that Sullinger gets a max deal, even if Crabbe gets $15m a year. This has now become a pretty pointless argument clearly, so I'll leave it at that. In other news, both Zeller and Sullinger got the QO Do you have link to Lowe article saying Crabbe floor is 10 million? I have to read that. |
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Post by cto94 on Jun 30, 2016 11:57:51 GMT -5
Pelton literally includes nothing except stats in his projections. I wouldn't be surprised if he's never seen Sullinger play. And that's really not the point- you said if Crabbe gets $10m+, sully is going to get a max deal. Nobody wants Sully on this team on a max deal, especially when the fit is questionable, no matter what the stats say. We'll have matching rights anyway so it's a non-issue, if you're seriously in the running for Horford or Durant though, let him walk if he gets more than $12-$15m because he's not going to move the needle much and he's honestly shown pretty limited development since we drafted him and no commitment to actually getting himself in shape. And the argument that we could dump a contract if it turns out to be a bad one by packaging picks is a terrible one, if you're worried about the contract being potentially that bad, then you don't sign it. Easy. We almost certainly have a high lottery pick again next year and probably the year after that, so I'm not too worried about replacing productive young guys like him, and if he turns out to be what I at least think he is then you don't waste picks dumping his deal that you shouldn't have signed in the first place. All advanced stats are based off of stats and numbers, they don't include scouting. Yep and the rational approach to projecting players acknowledges that advanced stats don't capture every aspect of the game. Pelton claims Sullinger is a more valuable free agent than Demar Derozan- does that seem reasonable? Because whatever RPM says, if you put Derozan as the primary scorer on a team of guys who can be decent shooters, defend and rebound, you have a solid team, but you can't build a team around Sully. That's why I prefer the guys, like Lowe among others, who value the stats but understand they're not the be all and end all of projecting players |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2016 13:15:18 GMT -5
I don't think there's any chance we can sign 3 max free agents next off season, as those deals are a % of cap. To sign two this year we need to renounce all free agents like Zeller, Sullinger and Turner. We also need to not pick up our non guaranteed contracts. We talk of players like Crabbe getting long term deals in the 10-13 million range on long term deal and Marvin Williams getting 2 year deal for 38 million or 3 year deals for 50 million I just don't see Sullinger not getting a big long term deal this year. Only chance we keep him on one year deal is if no one offers him an offer sheet and I just don't see that happening. I hope your right though. My worry with replacing Sullinger with Mickey is that team does worst next year and are no longer seen as an up and coming young team as they are now. Which is why free agents are finally knocking on our door. Maybe you can't sign three but that doesn't change the point I'm making. I don't want Sully potentially impacting major adds over the next two years. You disagree that's fine. But I think the mentality of "we can't lose a player for nothing" is a dangerous one in a sport where the wrong contract is deadly. How your contracts are layered matter a great deal. |
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