2016 Boston Celtics Offseason Thread

Yeah it's fine and probably the "safest" route to go. I've thought this next off-season is the make or break period. Thomas/Bradley/Smart will all be on their last year of a cheap contract, so they basically have to sign or trade for at least one superstar and likely two, if they're going to be serious contenders. 

I think they get someone to sign: Chris Paul, Blake, RWB, Durant, Lowry, Hayward, Ibaka, etc

And think they trade for someone: Middleton, Butler, Cousins, etc (the usual and unusual names)

My only concerns with the article is that:

a) Waiting will likely lead to a decrease in value of a significant proportion of those assets (ie the team-friendly contracts). Even if we assume that Smart, Brown and Giles/Jackson can be the stars to build around, it won't be (specifically for the latter 2) for another couple of years. This means Thomas and Bradley will likely need new contracts at a MUCH large tag than their current salary. Similarly, Olynyk will need an extension next offseason and Smart the year after that (which could be HUGE if he takes the step the article suggests). So much of their value is that they are producing starter level production at bench level prices. That could go away before this team can contend if it waits for the youth movement. Some are already predicting that we'll be walking away from Young's contract with little/no return. The same may end up being true for others (see below).

b) If we're to "have our cake and eat it too", we're going to need to sign another Free Agent or two which could come at the cost of more youth. Heading into next offseason (and assuming a $102Mn cap), Boston will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $5Mn over the cap. Now, of course, they can renounce rights on Johnson/Jerebko/Green and not pick up Zeller's option which would put us but adding in the hold for a top pick ($4-6 Mn assuming something in the Top 3) and you're talking $23 Mn in space (or less). That's not enough room to sign a max guy which means finding away to offload more of the young talent (non-guaranteed for Mickey, Options for Smart/Young/Rozier/Hunter need to be picked up by October, etc). To replace them, won't Boston have to go to the Free Agent market anyway? That puts you in a position that the article says being patient is trying to avoid.

Anyway, I agree with patience in the sense of "waiting to pounce". But the notion that we'll be able to "have our cake and eat it too" is not, entirely, accurate.

Yea they can definitely sign a max guy next year without too much trouble room wise.

Now I'm back to my original concern (depending on what happened/happens with Yabu and Zizic).

Eric Pincus(Cap guy at Basketball Insiders) said they they used bird rights to sign Zeller. The implication is that they may have kept the holds for The 2 draft and Stashes on the books. What I'm not sure of is whether you can go back and forth on that (next year, whether they are playing overseas or not, does their hold have to count?).

If so (or if they are coming over to play), that's at least 2.6 more on the books.

So, if Young, Bentil and Holland are released this year for example, Boston would be 11mn over (including all holds and a projected hold for a top 3 pick and assuming the options on Rozier, Smart and Hunter).

Renounce the FAs, and they are at 15 under. Walk away from (and renounce the holds on) the non-guaranteed contracts and you're at 26. So, you're short depending on what happens with Guerschon and Ante. If you can keep them overseas (and remove their holds), then you can get to right around 30. Then you can sign a max and then resign KO using bird rights.

Keep in mind, though this means they would have walked away from Young, Mickey, Jackson and Bentil. All 4 were recently considered assets that had real value.

So while it is mechanically very easy, it does mean that instead of getting value frim all of the assets he had, he's going to have to start walking away from them with no return.

Yeah, I think I may not have been clear on my point.

If you have a shot at getting a top tier FA next offseason, and you only have to walk away from those guys (at some point) . . . you do it and don't think twice.

The larger point that I was trying to make was these guys (either the players for the picks that were used to take them) were once part of the "treasure trove of assets" that we read so much about. They were supposed to have value and now you need to walk away without ANY return.

The gist of the article was that we can sign a FA and not cut into the asset bank and I would argue that just to get 1 player (yes, an All Star caliber player), you'll have to cut bait. Trying to do more (either next offseason or down the line) those assets MIGHT have to be given away at similar return. So there is SOME argument for trying to turn the assets into value before dumping them. That's all.

Not advocating a bad trade. Made that clear. Was responding to the article which indicated that sitting back and adding free agents and draft picks was having cake and eating it too. Trying to show how that's not entirely true.

Little hint, I rarely post about what I think they should do. I'm 45 and work for an insurance company so my thoughts on that mean less than 0. I tend to try and post information and evaluate commentary (typically trying to see all possible reasons for a decision to be made)

Telling you what I THINK they should do is probably a waste of everyone's time. Not saying it doesn't happen from time to time but it's rarely my goal. If it sounds like post is trying to do that, reread it to make sure.

Not surprisingly, Cs will not extend KO prior to deadline and let him become a Restricted Free Agent next year.

I still believe Smart can grow a lot offensively. One of him or Brown is going to be a stud.

No thanks on Chris Paul.

Nader finally commits to deal in NBDL per The Vertical

I guess he had a pretty lucrative deal overseas but turned it down. Am I correct in assuming "straight to NBDL" deals can be scrapped if Boston decides to sign him at some point (maybe a deal before the season or deadline that opens up some room).

I would think that's okay given that the NBA picks up the tab on those deals and would be more than happy to not have to write the check but I may be wrong.