SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Post-Draft Discussion Thread
|
|
Post by azblue on Jun 16, 2016 22:50:46 GMT -5
Groome's advisor/agent is a nobody trying to become somebody. He will handle this badly. Word before the draft was that several teams were not favorably impressed by Jeff Randazzo.
|
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 17, 2016 1:58:44 GMT -5
That's at least two players the Sox offered in the 3rd round before taking Anderson
|
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2016 3:15:10 GMT -5
That's at least two players the Sox offered in the 3rd round before taking Anderson As remember? Eons passed before that pick on the tracker at mlb.com live also.. Either there was some broken live link between teams and mlb, or Boston possibly trying to work out some under slot deal with a player before the pick perhaps before making the selection? |
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jun 17, 2016 7:58:41 GMT -5
That's at least two players the Sox offered in the 3rd round before taking Anderson Nice observation, and both of those players (I believe Belge and Fitzgerald) were part of that run of ranked HS players drafted in the late rounds. My guess is they probably made calls to that entire grouping looking for someone to settle for late 3rd round money. |
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2016 8:31:11 GMT -5
That's at least two players the Sox offered in the 3rd round before taking Anderson Nice observation, and both of those players (I believe Belge and Fitzgerald) were part of that run of ranked HS players drafted in the late rounds. My guess is they probably made calls to that entire grouping looking for someone to settle for late 3rd round money. Agree. Standard operating procedure. |
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 17, 2016 10:47:31 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe
#RedSox announce signings of OF Ryan Scott (7th round), OF Matt McLean (9th), C Nick Sciortino (17th) and 22 Nick Lovullo (20th)
|
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jun 17, 2016 11:02:49 GMT -5
That's more than $500,000 in saving so far. $523k by my count, plus the $350k from the overall 5% overage. That's enough to pay Groome $4mm, plus $65k to apply toward post-10th round picks. |
|
|
|
Post by ryeairfield on Jun 17, 2016 11:59:56 GMT -5
Very interesting Podcast yesterday with Callis. He didn't seem to feel the Sox were planning to use their slot savings entirely on Groome. He seemed to think they were going to offer deals to some of their prime later HS picks and offer Groome the balance on a take it or leave it basis. I like that direction.
|
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 17, 2016 12:09:01 GMT -5
A lot of those late round HS picks are true lottery tickets though.
|
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jun 17, 2016 12:09:41 GMT -5
Very interesting Podcast yesterday with Callis. He didn't seem to feel the Sox were planning to use their slot savings entirely on Groome. He seemed to think they were going to offer deals to some of their prime later HS picks and offer Groome the balance on a take it or leave it basis. I like that direction. Great strategy as long as they wind up getting Groome signed, not so awesome if not. |
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jun 17, 2016 12:14:05 GMT -5
Very interesting Podcast yesterday with Callis. He didn't seem to feel the Sox were planning to use their slot savings entirely on Groome. He seemed to think they were going to offer deals to some of their prime later HS picks and offer Groome the balance on a take it or leave it basis. I like that direction. That's probably right, but it will still end up being a $4mm offer to Groome. In other words, the Red Sox will know how much money they will have for Groome and the post-10th rounders and will ensure that they spend all but $4mm on players other than Groome. If Groome doesn't sign (I expect he will sign), then they'll have lined up a deal with one of the other late-round draftees (such as Shepherd, Fitzgerald, Jones, Belge or Bergner) for the additional $647k in aggregate ($4mm - $3.193mm Groome slot - $160k overage attributable to Groome slot). |
|
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 17, 2016 12:14:29 GMT -5
Here is Take #2 of my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2016 signing season. Disclaimer: I don't have any inside info behind this, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Signed
2 CJ Chatham $1,100,000
6 Steve Nogosek $250,000
7 Ryan Scott $10,000
9 Matt McLean $10,000
20 Nick Lovullo >$100,000 ($0 against cap)
17 Nick Sciortino >$100,000 ($0 against cap)
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Player, Projected Bonus
1 Jason Groome $4,000,000
3 Shaun Anderson $500,000
4 Bobby Dalbec $500,000
5 Mike Shawaryn $375,500
8 Alan Marrero $100,000
10 Santiago Espinal $50,000
After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Nick Quintana $500,000
After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 Matthew Gorst
13 Brady Bramlett (signing)
14 Robby Sexton (signing)
15 Michael Wilson
16 Alberto Schmidt
19 Kyle Hart
21 Beau Cappanna
22 Granger Studdard (signing)
23 Juan Carlos Abreu (signing)
24 Hunter Smith (signing)
26 Jared Oliver (signing)
27 Vince Arobio (wants $175k, 50-50)
28 Jordan Scheftz (likely signing)
34 Aaron McGarity (50-50)
36 Jordan Wren
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $7,295,500
Red Sox Cap: $6,997,400
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $7,347,270
Super wicked early projected not to sign
18 Trevor Stephan
25 Francsico Soto
29 Cam Shepherd
30 Tyler Fitzgerald
31 Christian Jones
32 Jeff Belge (not signing)
33 Chad Hardy
35 John Rave
37 Carter Aldrete (not signing)
38 Austin Bergner
39 Jake Wilson (50-50)
40 Carter Henry
|
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Jun 17, 2016 12:35:03 GMT -5
Very interesting Podcast yesterday with Callis. He didn't seem to feel the Sox were planning to use their slot savings entirely on Groome. He seemed to think they were going to offer deals to some of their prime later HS picks and offer Groome the balance on a take it or leave it basis. I like that direction. Callis mentioned Quintana a couple of times so I think if anything he'll be the one and only getting any of the savings from the draft pool. |
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 17, 2016 12:44:10 GMT -5
Very interesting Podcast yesterday with Callis. He didn't seem to feel the Sox were planning to use their slot savings entirely on Groome. He seemed to think they were going to offer deals to some of their prime later HS picks and offer Groome the balance on a take it or leave it basis. I like that direction. Callis mentioned Quintana a couple of times so I think if anything he'll be the one and only getting any of the savings from the draft pool. Aside from Groome? yes I think that is very plausible and likely. |
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 17, 2016 13:35:00 GMT -5
If the Red Sox signed their whole draft class - everyone - and lost their next two first round picks for going 15%+ over... would they be allowed to sign a player who was given a qualifying offer?
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2016 13:42:51 GMT -5
If the Red Sox signed their whole draft class - everyone - and lost their next two first round picks for going 15%+ over... would they be allowed to sign a player who was given a qualifying offer? They'd still be allowed to sign a QO player, they'd just lose their second round pick. See Section XX.B(4)(c) of the CBA (p. 89): |
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 17, 2016 14:01:34 GMT -5
So if Groome goes to college and we sign Encarnacion we lose the Groome pick?
As for signing everyone and losing you next two 1st rd picks.... someone is going to do that soon and I hope it's the Sox.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2016 14:11:31 GMT -5
So if Groome goes to college and we sign Encarnacion we lose the Groome pick? No. There is an exception in the above for "draft selections awarded to a Club pursuant to Major League Rule 4(c)(2)," which is the rule which says that if a team fails to sign a draftee, they get a compensatory pick in next year's draft. See here (p. 46). |
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 17, 2016 14:35:00 GMT -5
Thanks, didn't notice you linked to the cba
|
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Jun 17, 2016 17:57:05 GMT -5
So if Groome goes to college and we sign Encarnacion we lose the Groome pick? As for signing everyone and losing you next two 1st rd picks.... someone is going to do that soon and I hope it's the Sox. I found this bit informative. I assumed forfeited picks in this scenario just disappeared but now I know there would be a separate lottery to redistribute the forfeited picks. |
|
|
|
Post by hinder1 on Jun 18, 2016 10:08:10 GMT -5
I am an advocate of the sign everybody and forfeit the next two 1st round picks. If you signed everyone, you would be getting (using the various draft ratings pre-draft)the equivalent of two additional 2nd's (Belge & Quintana), a 3rd (Begner), a 4th (Fitzgerald), two 5th's (Shepherd & Jones), an 11th (Aldrete) as well as these highly rated unranked High School guys (Henry, Wilson, Rave, Capanna and Wilson). The fine money of say $7 million is irrelevant to a team with the financial resources of the Red Sox. After all they paid a $32 million penalty just to sign one guy - Moncada. If you look at how many 1st round picks the Red Sox have missed on the last 10 years (Hansen 2005 #26, Place 2006 #27, Kris Johnson 2006 #39, Clay 2006 #43, Hagadone 2007 #55, Dent 2007 #62, Kelly 2008 #30, Price 2008 #45, Fuentes 2009 #29, Vitek 2010 #20, Brentz 2010 #36, Ranaudo 2010 #39, D. Marrero 2011 #24, Brian Johnson 2011 #31, Pat Light 2011 #37, Ball 2013 #7!, and 3 of the 2011 #1's Barnes, Owens and Swihart have had very limited success and the jury is still very much out as to whether or not these guys will become good players. That is 19 guys who have had #1 picks spent (wasted?) on. With such a terrible track record of success, why not blow off 2 #1's for the opportunity to sign 10 more guys? It would seem your chances are better with 10 guys than 2 picked in the 20's or later if the team remains a contender.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 18, 2016 10:16:54 GMT -5
I am an advocate of the sign everybody and forfeit the next two 1st round picks. If you signed everyone, you would be getting (using the various draft ratings pre-draft)the equivalent of two additional 2nd's (Belge & Quintana), a 3rd (Begner), a 4th (Fitzgerald), two 5th's (Shepherd & Jones), an 11th (Aldrete) as well as these highly rated unranked High School guys (Henry, Wilson, Rave, Capanna and Wilson). The fine money of say $7 million is irrelevant to a team with the financial resources of the Red Sox. After all they paid a $32 million penalty just to sign one guy - Moncada. If you look at how many 1st round picks the Red Sox have missed on the last 10 years (Hansen 2005 #26, Place 2006 #27, Kris Johnson 2006 #39, Clay 2006 #43, Hagadone 2007 #55, Dent 2007 #62, Kelly 2008 #30, Price 2008 #45, Fuentes 2009 #29, Vitek 2010 #20, Brentz 2010 #36, Ranaudo 2010 #39, D. Marrero 2011 #24, Brian Johnson 2011 #31, Pat Light 2011 #37, Ball 2013 #7!, and 3 of the 2011 #1's Barnes, Owens and Swihart have had very limited success and the jury is still very much out as to whether or not these guys will become good players. That is 19 guys who have had #1 picks spent (wasted?) on. With such a terrible track record of success, why not blow off 2 #1's for the opportunity to sign 10 more guys? It would seem your chances are better with 10 guys than 2 picked in the 20's or later if the team remains a contender. Yet no team has done this yet. |
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202 
|
Post by jimoh on Jun 18, 2016 10:21:42 GMT -5
If the Red Sox signed their whole draft class - everyone - and lost their next two first round picks for going 15%+ over... would they be allowed to sign a player who was given a qualifying offer? They'd still be allowed to sign a QO player, they'd just lose their second round pick. See Section XX.B(4)(c) of the CBA (p. 89): Thanks! it's so great to have sources for this info! |
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 18, 2016 10:27:42 GMT -5
As for the pluses and minuses of signing every draft pick?
The commissioner has to sign off on each and every deal. To this date (so far) it's been nothing but a formal thing. Who is to say that if some large market team were to go out and spend.. Just throwing out these numbers.. Say.. 25-30m on a draft, that the previous cursory commish signature could just become improbable on a few occasions, or said team could be setup for retributions in other ways down the line on top of future draft pick losses?
|
|
|
|
Post by thebogeyman on Jun 18, 2016 10:34:22 GMT -5
I am an advocate of the sign everybody and forfeit the next two 1st round picks. If you signed everyone, you would be getting (using the various draft ratings pre-draft)the equivalent of two additional 2nd's (Belge & Quintana), a 3rd (Begner), a 4th (Fitzgerald), two 5th's (Shepherd & Jones), an 11th (Aldrete) as well as these highly rated unranked High School guys (Henry, Wilson, Rave, Capanna and Wilson). The fine money of say $7 million is irrelevant to a team with the financial resources of the Red Sox. After all they paid a $32 million penalty just to sign one guy - Moncada. If you look at how many 1st round picks the Red Sox have missed on the last 10 years (Hansen 2005 #26, Place 2006 #27, Kris Johnson 2006 #39, Clay 2006 #43, Hagadone 2007 #55, Dent 2007 #62, Kelly 2008 #30, Price 2008 #45, Fuentes 2009 #29, Vitek 2010 #20, Brentz 2010 #36, Ranaudo 2010 #39, D. Marrero 2011 #24, Brian Johnson 2011 #31, Pat Light 2011 #37, Ball 2013 #7!, and 3 of the 2011 #1's Barnes, Owens and Swihart have had very limited success and the jury is still very much out as to whether or not these guys will become good players. That is 19 guys who have had #1 picks spent (wasted?) on. With such a terrible track record of success, why not blow off 2 #1's for the opportunity to sign 10 more guys? It would seem your chances are better with 10 guys than 2 picked in the 20's or later if the team remains a contender. Yet no team has done this yet. If you were going to do it, you would want to do it in a deep draft and when your MLB team is peaking (expecting to pick late in first for a few years). Doing so would pretty much break the draft though, so I wouldn't be surprised if MLB stepped in somehow. That fact that this strategy is even possible shows that there is something seriously wrong with the draft as it is. |
|
|
