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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2016 14:31:36 GMT -5
More likely, yes. Either way, not sure this is about Keith Law. Given that he is shilling for Groome's agent, I think its at least partially about him. |
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Post by myleskennefick on Jun 16, 2016 14:55:52 GMT -5
Earlier this week I heard from a friend of mine in the industry that Groome had a deal in place later on in the round (provided he lasted that long, of course). He didn't give any specifics, so i don't know if the $5mil number is accurate or if it was the Padres.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2016 15:14:01 GMT -5
Groome will be even more upset when he sees all the taxes taken out of his check.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 15:25:01 GMT -5
More likely, yes. Either way, not sure this is about Keith Law. Given that he is shilling for Groome's agent, I think its at least partially about him. So a reporter reporting on what he heard is "shilling for an agent"? Admittedly, I tend to like Keith Law but he might be the LAST person I'd accuse of that (despite his feelings on the draft system). The thing that bothers me is how OVER principled he can sometimes be. |
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Post by ramireja on Jun 16, 2016 15:31:04 GMT -5
I don't know. They had close to $13Mn (pre-overage) in pool money. They also spent $1.7 on 3rd rounder Mason Thompson (a hit of just over $1Mn to their bonus pool). They could've easily used that money plus some more savings at 25 (Lauer was a bit under slot - they didn't need a "senior sign" to get bigger savings here, 48, 71 (I would think Lawson gets over-slot no?) I'm surprised at the Quantrill bonus but I don't necessarily think that it renders the rumor BS. I see what you're saying, and the more I play with numbers the more I think it was possible, but still extreme/farfetched. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but when someone has been selected in the late first, second, or third round and signs for premium % (think Daz Cameron, Sean Manaea), it has always been because the team's early first round pick comes in significantly underslot. In other words, we haven't once seen a situation where a guy makes 2-3 million overslot and then the team punts the rest of their following Day 1 and Day 2 picks. For Groome to get 5 mill at #24 (slot value = 2.2 mill), we need to account for 3.8 extra that is not coming from Quantrill. So yeah, they could save 1 mill on Pick 25, maybe .7 on Pick 48, .5 on Pick 71, and something like 1.6 on Rounds 3-10, but its extreme and unlike any draft we've seen before. Once again correct me if I'm wrong, but when a story leaks that essentially says "hey we were going to try a strategy that hasn't been done since the CBA agreement"...I'm very skeptical. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 15:35:34 GMT -5
The strategy would seem strange, I have to admit. Doable. But strange.
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Post by MLBDreams on Jun 16, 2016 16:12:12 GMT -5
I understand that Jay Groome would take SD's offer for 5 mil at #24 if he slide all way to their pick. The difference is $1.808 mil between #12 & #24. Would he want to play for SD that have zero playoff chances due to same Div as LAD & SFG (superior teams)? Boston always serious about making playoffs yearly and have better future chances with current youthful RS roster.
Look at Matt Harrington being at #7 pick from 2000 Draft. He wanted to get $4.950 mil for signing but Colorado's final offer was $4 mil. They were unable to narrow it from $950K gap. Matt was also drafted 5 times and never sign MLB contract. He missed out the opportunity with dumbous situations. I hope Jay ignores potential small gap and get the golden opportunity with the RS. 4 Mil dollars by above the slot is lot of money to pass up and don't be like Matt Harrington!
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 16, 2016 16:47:42 GMT -5
Ugh. I was reading the Speier article, and there was a quote from Rikard about Dalbec saying the scout (Vaughn Williams) had "strong convictions about him as a hitter". So I went on here and checked the scout's track record of signings to see if his convictions can be counted on. Willie Ethington Brandon Magee Devin Marrero Jeremy Rivera Shaq Thompson In short, no. No they cannot. At least we can say pretty confidently he won't be worse than Shaq Thompson, considering its just about mathematically impossible. Pretty sure he has to be the worst hitter in the history of professional baseball. How do you check scouts' signing records? That's a neat feature. Its on the wiki on this site. I am not actually sure how to navigate to it from within the site, I just found it by googling his name. Here is the link wiki.soxprospects.com/Amateur+Signings+(By+Scout) |
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Post by mjammz on Jun 16, 2016 18:07:24 GMT -5
Upset to be drafted by the Red Sox? There is literally video of him and his family's reaction. Keith Law can be a real douche sometimes. Whats even funnier about that in the videos you can hear the Family cheering and screaming that he gets to stay on the east coast. That was a genuine celebration and excitement. My guys is the people upset that Groome was picked by the Sox were the teams lower down in the draft that were hoping he'd slide, and they're the ones putting that out there. |
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Post by The Duck on Jun 16, 2016 18:40:10 GMT -5
Can somebody with more cred than me start the signing thread already?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 16, 2016 19:05:44 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 16, 2016 19:08:29 GMT -5
Jim Callis @jimcallismlb Srs: T.York @brewers 9th rd, $25k; M.McLean redsox 9th rd, $10k; L.Humpal @orioles 9th rd, $10k; M.Barash @angels 9th rd, $20k. @mlbdraft |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2016 19:12:06 GMT -5
Given that he is shilling for Groome's agent, I think its at least partially about him. So a reporter reporting on what he heard is "shilling for an agent"? Admittedly, I tend to like Keith Law but he might be the LAST person I'd accuse of that (despite his feelings on the draft system). The thing that bothers me is how OVER principled he can sometimes be. You think a lot more highly of him then I do apparently. Its pretty clear what he is doing here. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 16, 2016 19:16:14 GMT -5
That's more than $500,000 in saving so far.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 16, 2016 19:18:55 GMT -5
Upset to be drafted by the Red Sox? There is literally video of him and his family's reaction. Keith Law can be a real douche sometimes. Pretty much this. As I'm readig that crap from Klaw I'm thinking to myself "Is he just making this stuff as he goes along?" Nothing about that makes any sense whatsoever. |
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202 
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Post by jimoh on Jun 16, 2016 19:26:46 GMT -5
So a reporter reporting on what he heard is "shilling for an agent"? Admittedly, I tend to like Keith Law but he might be the LAST person I'd accuse of that (despite his feelings on the draft system). The thing that bothers me is how OVER principled he can sometimes be. You think a lot more highly of him then I do apparently. Its pretty clear what he is doing here. Yeah, by saying that Groome would be crazy not to sign and that it'd be unwise to go back into the draft next year because of all the college pitchers, Law is "shilling for an agent"? Even if that were remotely plausible, what possible motive could Law have for "shilling for an agent"? |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 19:28:41 GMT -5
Let's ignore your anti-Law sentiment for a moment. Read the quote. He says Teams believe that he's upset. Law isn't reporting that Groome is upset. And, the components of the story are plausible (Callis, independently, reporting that a 5MN offer from SD existed).
I'm not saying it's fact (and even if it is, it might be missing context that may not have made it to him after being passed through sorces) but it's not an unreasonable notion.
But, if you want to write off everything he says, I doubt discussion of what is, at least reasonable is going to change your mind. So I'll cease.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jun 16, 2016 19:43:47 GMT -5
The above average signing of Quantrill might be to up Groome's apparent cost. This may make it more likely for Groome to re-enter the 2017 draft. Lets face it the Padres will have a good shot of drafting him next year if we don't sign him. I doubt this is the case, but it's possible.
After the below slot signings the Sox can offer Groome 4.35 million in my prediction of bonuses. Of course that would stop us from signing anybody over slot other than Groome.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 16, 2016 19:56:23 GMT -5
The above average signing of Quantrill might be to up Groome's apparent cost. This may make it more likely for Groome to re-enter the 2017 draft. Lets face it the Padres will have a good shot of drafting him next year if we don't sign him. I doubt this is the case, but it's possible. After the below slot signings the Sox can offer Groome 4.35 million in my prediction of bonuses. Of course that would stop us from signing anybody over slot other than Groome. Teams get approximate, if not fairly set-in-stone numbers BEFORE they draft the guy. This isn't NFL free agency where one guy's contract can greatly affect anothers. Also, why would any team hinder itself to spite another team? Spiking Quantrill's deal to attempt at upping the price for us instead of drafting a post round 10 guy with upside to spend it on would be ridiculous by SD. |
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Post by ramireja on Jun 16, 2016 19:56:45 GMT -5
With the senior signs in, plus Chatham, Nogosek, and 5% extra, we can offer Groome an even 4 mill with a little over $65k for picks beyond Round 10.
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 16, 2016 20:28:16 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2016 21:06:43 GMT -5
Let's ignore your anti-Law sentiment for a moment. Read the quote. He says Teams believe that he's upset. Law isn't reporting that Groome is upset. And, the components of the story are plausible (Callis, independently, reporting that a 5MN offer from SD existed). I'm not saying it's fact (and even if it is, it might be missing context that may not have made it to him after being passed through sorces) but it's not an unreasonable notion. But, if you want to write off everything he says, I doubt discussion of what is, at least reasonable is going to change your mind. So I'll cease. Its pretty clear what he is saying is not true and he probably knows it. Based on him and his family's reaction and the fact he himself said "its not about the money." There is no reason to lie when saying something like that because you're throwing away your bargaining position. Thats why you see players say stuff like "we'll see what the offer is." Etc. Keith Law is doing what NFL guys like Adam Schefter do all the time. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2016 21:16:39 GMT -5
If you insert the words "Groome's agent" for "Groome" in the Law stuff, there's no real discrepancy at all. For instance, the San Diego deal may not have come together until the day of the draft (and maybe not until the draft had already started), and his agent may not have told Groome about it until after the fact.
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 16, 2016 21:18:33 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 16, 2016 21:36:07 GMT -5
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