SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Post-Draft Discussion Thread
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jun 18, 2016 23:35:17 GMT -5
I just happened to watch Arizona-Miami in College World Series Bracket game recently. I wasn't impressed by Bob Dalbec's 2 bats. He striked out by chasing two strikes in high upper & wide out of strike zone. Then, he ground out to SS in next bat. I missed his earlier at bats. Based on I watched him batting twice, I think the FO should not offer him more than $350K from Round 4 (Slot $501,300). I don't really excited by him as the Red Sox 3B prospect if he signs with the RS. He's free swinger. Sorry to tell you negative about him. I don't know what's the factor for the FO to draft him. Dalbec makes more sense as a closer than a bat. |
|
|
|
Post by braziliansox on Jun 18, 2016 23:41:52 GMT -5
I just happened to watch Arizona-Miami in College World Series Bracket game recently. I wasn't impressed by Bob Dalbec's 2 bats. He striked out by chasing two strikes in high upper & wide out of strike zone. Then, he ground out to SS in next bat. I missed his earlier at bats. Based on I watched him batting twice, I think the FO should not offer him more than $350K from Round 4 (Slot $501,300). I don't really excited by him as the Red Sox 3B prospect if he signs with the RS. He's free swinger. Sorry to tell you negative about him. I don't know what's the factor for the FO to draft him. I will go out on a limb and say that someone in the organization saw him bat more than 2 times. But dont get me wrong, making decisions based in 2 ABs is a great idea! |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2016 0:00:41 GMT -5
Can you show us some math on that? What are the odds that one of your twelve 2016 later-rounds guys becomes an impact player, as opposed to the two 1st round picks in 2017 and 2018? How can you possibly calculate odds on the future success of guys not yet signed? We can only look back at what past performance has been. I listed 19 guys who have been drafted #1 by the Red Sox none of them are impact or star players. A few have been bit players but I would have expected much more given the investment. If you want to talk 2011, I think right now the jury is still out. JBJ has been solid for roughly 1/2 a year between his August 2015 numbers and the first 2.5 months of this year. That is hardly a definitive success as he has had just as much time where he struggled to hit .220. I'm hopeful he becomes a reliable star but it is still too early. If we used this same standard to apply to Will Middlebrooks, he would have been an HOF after his first call-up. Obviously you need to produce over time to be a success. On the drafting in general, just look at the current team. The only drafted players are Vazquez (9th 2008), Pedroia (2nd 2004), JBJ (1st 2011), Shaw (9th), Barnes (1st 2011), Buchholz (1st 2005), Betts (5th 2005) before you consider guys on the DL or shuttling between Pawtucket. better than 2/3 of their roster comes from other sources besides drafting. They have bought good prospects as amateur IFA's (Bogaerts, H. Ramirez, Tazawa) they sign plenty of MLB free agents (Ortiz, Young, Price, Koji, Lane) or MLB trades (Holt, Rutledge, Ross, Porcello, Wright, Hembree, Hanigan, EROD). The bottom line is that the Red Sox have not drafted well at all despite having the ability to pay large signing bonuses under the old system for most of that time, and frequently having multiple 1st rounders and compensation picks. Quite frankly you could make a good argument that they should sign a veteran MLB type A free agent every year and forfeit the #1 pick based on how badly they have squandered most of them over the last 10 year period (note:I'm not including the last two years because we really don't know enough yet about how they will turn out). Based on the track record the Sox get just as many if not more of their players in the mid rounds as with 1st rounders. That is why I say they would be better off with more quantity than one or two guys in the 20 range. You still have to pick the right guys. For reference I will note that the "more swings at the bat philosophy" is exactly the one the N.E. Patriots have used for years. They constantly infuriate football draftnicks by trading backwards for more picks. They seem to have done fairly well with that strategy! 19? If you're going to be selective about reporting-basing it on the current team-why not list those 19 players, and all of the other draftees in the first or supplemental first rounds, or their first overall pick (2nd-rounders) in that timeframe. Then show some source that gives success rates by draft position, and demonstrate that the Sox have done *substantially* worse than average. Because in the last 12 years, you're missing Ellsbury (1) and Lester (2) and Bard (1). If you go back to 2003 there's David Murphy. They also hit on Masterson (2). They had some "bad" picks from 2008-2010, but turned them into Adrian Gonzalez and Robbie Ross (Ranaudo, Fuentes, Kelly). They tended to pick very late in the first round, too, where "success" is substantially less likely than at the top. Chavis (2014-1) is hitting around .350 with power in low A at age 20. I don't need to detail the 2011 draft. And Trey Ball is 22, in high A, which is entirely age-appropriate. And if you want to see some percentages (which show that good players are about a 1 in 5 shot where the Sox usually pick, and only 1 in 3 where they took Ball), then look here: www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/Also note that you're including 1s picks, which this study does not. It's not unreasonable to think that their bust rate is similar to, or worse than, that in the 26-30 range (meaning, 6 out of 7 fail completely). Here's another older study with similar results: viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/2015/10/27/out-of-the-archives-success-rate-of-mlb-draft-picks-by-slot/Even the liklihood of making it to MLB is pretty low: www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/#BbcJOXhxkgs0Ggzg.97 |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2016 0:05:47 GMT -5
I just happened to watch Arizona-Miami in College World Series Bracket game recently. I wasn't impressed by Bob Dalbec's 2 bats. He striked out by chasing two strikes in high upper & wide out of strike zone. Then, he ground out to SS in next bat. I missed his earlier at bats. Based on I watched him batting twice, I think the FO should not offer him more than $350K from Round 4 (Slot $501,300). I don't really excited by him as the Red Sox 3B prospect if he signs with the RS. He's free swinger. Sorry to tell you negative about him. I don't know what's the factor for the FO to draft him. 70, possibly 80 power. And pitching as a fallback. 4th rounders have a pretty low chance of making it to MLB, so they swung for the fences, so to say. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 19, 2016 8:35:26 GMT -5
I just happened to watch Arizona-Miami in College World Series Bracket game recently. I wasn't impressed by Bob Dalbec's 2 bats. He striked out by chasing two strikes in high upper & wide out of strike zone. Then, he ground out to SS in next bat. I missed his earlier at bats. Based on I watched him batting twice, I think the FO should not offer him more than $350K from Round 4 (Slot $501,300). I don't really excited by him as the Red Sox 3B prospect if he signs with the RS. He's free swinger. Sorry to tell you negative about him. I don't know what's the factor for the FO to draft him. 70, possibly 80 power. And pitching as a fallback. 4th rounders have a pretty low chance of making it to MLB, so they swung for the fences, so to say. As a 4th rounder, I actually liked the pick. How many Division 1 players are capable of doing all that he can do. As for his season, take a look at what he did as a sophomore. The kid does have some strong tools (hitting for power and a very strong arm), and yes he has some negatives....but I think he may be more than some are giving him credit for. |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 19, 2016 9:40:49 GMT -5
With these picks I think we gotta wait for the money to really judge some of these picks and even then our knowledge is limited.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2016 11:22:44 GMT -5
If you want to talk 2011, I think right now the jury is still out. JBJ has been solid for roughly 1/2 a year between his August 2015 numbers and the first 2.5 months of this year. That is hardly a definitive success as he has had just as much time where he struggled to hit .220. I'm hopeful he becomes a reliable star but it is still too early. If we used this same standard to apply to Will Middlebrooks, he would have been an HOF after his first call-up. Obviously you need to produce over time to be a success. JBJ has put up 5.1 fWAR in his last 137 games, which includes the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons . That's not solid, that's All-Star. WMB put up 1.9 fWAR in his first 75 games, and then virtually nothing after that. Furthermore, even in 2014 when JBJ hit .198 for the year, he had positive 0.5 fWAR. Come back to me in 10 years when you still think the jury is out on JBJ. The rest of us will be watching him in several All-Star games. |
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 19, 2016 11:48:05 GMT -5
I did some spreadsheet work last night. Since he returned from the minors for good on June 25th of last season, Bradley's line is .282/.352/.552, with 60 XBH including 20 home runs. That's in 121 games and 455 plate appearances. Also, he's yet to be thrown out stealing for his ML career though it's only been 18 attempts. This is starting to look very real.
|
|
|
|
Post by fdrnewdeal on Jun 19, 2016 12:18:29 GMT -5
70, possibly 80 power. And pitching as a fallback. 4th rounders have a pretty low chance of making it to MLB, so they swung for the fences, so to say. As a 4th rounder, I actually liked the pick. How many Division 1 players are capable of doing all that he can do. As for his season, take a look at what he did as a sophomore. The kid does have some strong tools (hitting for power and a very strong arm), and yes he has some negatives....but I think he may be more than some are giving him credit for. Yeah... you know who isn't available on the boards in the fourth round? Polished players with a 70+ skill. If he didn't have massive swing and miss to his game, he would never have fallen to the fourth round. We all experienced the 2011 draft, so we all have very distorted views on what you'd expect to get out of a draft, but the odds are stacked against every individual player outside of maybe the top 5 in a typical year. I don't think Dalbec has much of a chance as a pitcher, but at least he profiles as an average fielder with a plus arm. Maybe if things break right with him, he could turn into Juan Uribe/Russel Branyon hybrid. A good defensive 3b with power and serous offensive issues (be it lacks of walks, Uribe, or tons of Ks, Branyon, or both). |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2016 14:13:26 GMT -5
70, possibly 80 power. And pitching as a fallback. 4th rounders have a pretty low chance of making it to MLB, so they swung for the fences, so to say. As a 4th rounder, I actually liked the pick. How many Division 1 players are capable of doing all that he can do. As for his season, take a look at what he did as a sophomore. The kid does have some strong tools (hitting for power and a very strong arm), and yes he has some negatives....but I think he may be more than some are giving him credit for. I like the pick, too. I worry less about eventual success for guys with outstanding hit tools over power, but even if he Shaq Thompsons, he's got a strong, fresh arm to fall back on. I'm all for taking a long shot at a potential huge payoff in the fourth round. I much prefer the Dalbec pick over the Matheny one. If you're going to take a 1-in-7 or so shot at an MLBer, might as well take a chance on a star. |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2016 14:17:03 GMT -5
As a 4th rounder, I actually liked the pick. How many Division 1 players are capable of doing all that he can do. As for his season, take a look at what he did as a sophomore. The kid does have some strong tools (hitting for power and a very strong arm), and yes he has some negatives....but I think he may be more than some are giving him credit for. Yeah... you know who isn't available on the boards in the fourth round? Polished players with a 70+ skill. If he didn't have massive swing and miss to his game, he would never have fallen to the fourth round. We all experienced the 2011 draft, so we all have very distorted views on what you'd expect to get out of a draft, but the odds are stacked against every individual player outside of maybe the top 5 in a typical year. I don't think Dalbec has much of a chance as a pitcher, but at least he profiles as an average fielder with a plus arm. Maybe if things break right with him, he could turn into Juan Uribe/Russel Branyon hybrid. A good defensive 3b with power and serous offensive issues (be it lacks of walks, Uribe, or tons of Ks, Branyon, or both). Yeah, those are the guys you draft and hope on, especially if you trust your minor league development system. If he can't hit (Frankie Rodriguez, Williams Jerez, etc.), he has an arm. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2016 16:20:00 GMT -5
Yeah... you know who isn't available on the boards in the fourth round? Polished players with a 70+ skill. If he didn't have massive swing and miss to his game, he would never have fallen to the fourth round. We all experienced the 2011 draft, so we all have very distorted views on what you'd expect to get out of a draft, but the odds are stacked against every individual player outside of maybe the top 5 in a typical year. I don't think Dalbec has much of a chance as a pitcher, but at least he profiles as an average fielder with a plus arm. Maybe if things break right with him, he could turn into Juan Uribe/Russel Branyon hybrid. A good defensive 3b with power and serous offensive issues (be it lacks of walks, Uribe, or tons of Ks, Branyon, or both). Yeah, those are the guys you draft and hope on, especially if you trust your minor league development system. If he can't hit (Frankie Rodriguez, Williams Jerez, etc.), he has an arm. Frankie Rodriguez had a 689 OPS his one year at SS (712 if you include his 7/14, 3B with the GCL), which sounds unimpressive, but the league was 679. He had an .027 HR/Contact, versus the league's .018. And the league was the NYPL, and he was an 18-year-old SS who preferred the position to pitching. The only reason they had him play SS for a year was that he insisted on it before signing as a draft-and-follow. He eventually got 12 PA as a pitcher in AAA and MLB and went 3/11, BB, HR. The lost upside is probably a hell of a lot less, but this was even worse than the decision to make Ken Brett a P rather than a CF. Brett probably threw 100+ and they never gave him a chance to hit. When the kid you think has a better shot to succeed as a pitcher forces you to play him at SS for a year and he has that kind of season, the proper response is "wow, were we ever wrong about what position he should play." |
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Jun 19, 2016 16:24:46 GMT -5
WEEI.com:
According to a source, Red Sox second-round pick CJ Chatham has a broken thumb. The injury occurred two weeks ago in a regional game against Long Beach State.
The shortstop didn’t think it was anything major until his physical with the Red Sox.
He will depart for Fort Myers Sunday to rehab and is expected to be there two or three weeks before joining short-season, Single-A Lowell.
|
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2016 16:36:10 GMT -5
Yeah, those are the guys you draft and hope on, especially if you trust your minor league development system. If he can't hit (Frankie Rodriguez, Williams Jerez, etc.), he has an arm. Frankie Rodriguez had a 689 OPS his one year at SS (712 if you include his 7/14, 3B with the GCL), which sounds unimpressive, but the league was 679. He had an .027 HR/Contact, versus the league's .018. And the league was the NYPL, and he was an 18-year-old SS who preferred the position to pitching. The only reason they had him play SS for a year was that he insisted on it before signing as a draft-and-follow. He eventually got 12 PA as a pitcher in AAA and MLB and went 3/11, BB, HR. The lost upside is probably a hell of a lot less, but this was even worse than the decision to make Ken Brett a P rather than a CF. Brett probably threw 100+ and they never gave him a chance to hit. When the kid you think has a better shot to succeed as a pitcher forces you to play him at SS for a year and he has that kind of season, the proper response is "wow, were we ever wrong about what position he should play." In retrospect, you may be right. At 19 in the NYP, and playing SS, he may have been better off staying there. I remember he hit something like 27 HR in his one JUCO season. Please don't bring up Ken Brett. That still hurts...and I wasn't even born when they drafted him. I remember pretty much everyone, including George, say that of the brothers he was the superior hitter. |
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Jun 19, 2016 20:15:17 GMT -5
WEEI.com: According to a source, Red Sox second-round pick CJ Chatham has a broken thumb. The injury occurred two weeks ago in a regional game against Long Beach State. The shortstop didn’t think it was anything major until his physical with the Red Sox. He will depart for Fort Myers Sunday to rehab and is expected to be there two or three weeks before joining short-season, Single-A Lowell. Big question.....did he disclose the injury prior to the draft? If not, and the Sox were not aware of it until the physical, seems the team has some relief available. Could bonus be reduced? Would the injury, if known, have altered the team's drafting plan? |
|
|
|
Post by myleskennefick on Jun 19, 2016 22:14:35 GMT -5
WEEI.com: According to a source, Red Sox second-round pick CJ Chatham has a broken thumb. The injury occurred two weeks ago in a regional game against Long Beach State. The shortstop didn’t think it was anything major until his physical with the Red Sox. He will depart for Fort Myers Sunday to rehab and is expected to be there two or three weeks before joining short-season, Single-A Lowell. Big question.....did he disclose the injury prior to the draft? If not, and the Sox were not aware of it until the physical, seems the team has some relief available. Could bonus be reduced? Would the injury, if known, have altered the team's drafting plan? I'm assuming they signed him after he took his physical, so they would've known about the injury when he signed. |
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Jun 19, 2016 22:27:40 GMT -5
A physical takes place before any contract is signed.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jun 20, 2016 3:52:21 GMT -5
 Santiago Espinal has signed, but he appears injured so it's possible we won't see his signing announced for some time. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Jun 20, 2016 10:41:19 GMT -5
Eric so Brett threw 100? Didn't know that. He had a solid pitching career with the Pirates, and I remember him hitting a bunch of homers as a pitcher. The X-Ray supervisor where I did my clinicals in N.Y. Was also a baseball scout and had just dined with Frankie Rodriguez so of course we chatted about whether to make him a pitcher. He favored that, citing the average speed of a shortstop, with Frankie falling a bit short, though of course he had the arm and was a good fielder anyway. With real talented two way players, I know it's super competitive today and there are benefits to focusing, but why not let them continue with both and allow things to play out further, similarly to Babe Ruth at first?
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 20, 2016 11:16:20 GMT -5
Yeah, those are the guys you draft and hope on, especially if you trust your minor league development system. If he can't hit (Frankie Rodriguez, Williams Jerez, etc.), he has an arm. Frankie Rodriguez had a 689 OPS his one year at SS (712 if you include his 7/14, 3B with the GCL), which sounds unimpressive, but the league was 679. He had an .027 HR/Contact, versus the league's .018. I mean, that's solid and all, but look at what he did as a pitcher with Pawtucket at 21. 160 Ks and only 60 walks in 186 innings. He was an okay prospect as a hitter and a near-elite one on the mound. Probably about the difference between Mauricio Dubon and Jason Groome in current terms. |
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202 
|
Post by jimoh on Jun 20, 2016 12:40:40 GMT -5
The lost upside is probably a hell of a lot less, but this was even worse than the decision to make Ken Brett a P rather than a CF. Brett probably threw 100+ and they never gave him a chance to hit. When the kid you think has a better shot to succeed as a pitcher forces you to play him at SS for a year and he has that kind of season, the proper response is "wow, were we ever wrong about what position he should play." I'm very skeptical about the claim that Brett threw 100+ mph. He no doubt threw harder as a rookie than later, after an injury, but I don't remember ever hearing that claim, and surely if he threw that hard there would have been comparisons to fellow lefties Koufax and Sudden Sam McDowell (said to throw in the mid-90s). His appearance in the 67 World Series, when Gibson was lights out for the Cardinals, would have been the perfect time to bring that up. I remember going to a game in 68 with binoculars, and thinking Frank Howard was 8 feet tall. I don't think he was. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Jun 20, 2016 12:56:25 GMT -5
I believe Howard's 1968 Baseball card listed him at 6'7" 275. Imagine him in Japan? A friend saw a picture of him towering over the team. An ex boyfriend of someone I dated was similarly sized and during his visit to Japan he was annoyed that he was frequently photographed.
|
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 20, 2016 17:55:02 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Jun 20, 2016 18:54:50 GMT -5
Frank Howard hit the ball (3 times) into the second deck at RFK stadium in dead center field at least half way up to the roof over that deck. All had to be 500 feet. They painted each of the seats white. I guess that had a saying, "Three white seats" I saw him play in D.C. when I went up to watch the Sox. Every bit of 275. Sorry about the clutter on the draft thread. Could not resist.
|
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jun 20, 2016 19:02:58 GMT -5
Hmmm...the idea that they can sign Shawaryn overslot, Groome for less 4M and sign Quintana is starting to seem farfetched. Interested, but a little nervous, to see how all of these signings play out. |
|
|
