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Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2016 0:20:01 GMT -5
Yeah, honestly I can see the Red Sox signing only one universally ranked player (MLB/BA/PG) after round 10. That means only one of Quintana, Fitzgerald, Jones, Belge, or Bergner. And even then I'm ok with it. At least assuming they sign rounds 1-10, which I believe they will. I think that they drafted Quintana in the 11th round is meaningful. There will always be some universally ranked guy who signs for less than expected (guys like Brakeman, Trent Kemp, etc.), and the fact that he was the first pick we made after having time to talk to agents is meaningful. I think he signs regardless of the Groome situation. I do agree with you though that the entire quintet of Fitzgerald, Shepherd, Belge, Bergner and Jones are unlikely to sign unless something with Groome falls through and we have extra money. If we can even get one of those guys to sign I'll consider a huge success. I'm interested in the HS guys drafted in earlier rounds without the BA pedigree....Michael Wilson, Beau Capanna, and Juan Carlos Abreu. I have no idea about those guys and love the recent success we've had with other former HS guys lacking huge pedigrees (Ockimey and Dubon). |
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Post by larrycook on Jun 12, 2016 0:21:23 GMT -5
In my mind signing jayson is all we need to do to have a successful draft this year.
I'm still sad that we missed out on Bowden and boomer white, but it is what it is.
Absolutely love the closers from Florida and Oregon and the starter from Maryland.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 12, 2016 0:25:49 GMT -5
Yeah, honestly I can see the Red Sox signing only one universally ranked player (MLB/BA/PG) after round 10. That means only one of Quintana, Fitzgerald, Jones, Belge, or Bergner. And even then I'm ok with it. At least assuming they sign rounds 1-10, which I believe they will. I think that they drafted Quintana in the 11th round is meaningful. There will always be some universally ranked guy who signs for less than expected (guys like Brakeman, Trent Kemp, etc.), and the fact that he was the first pick we made after having time to talk to agents is meaningful. I think he signs regardless of the Groome situation. I do agree with you though that the entire quintet of Fitzgerald, Shepherd, Belge, Bergner and Jones are unlikely to sign unless something with Groome falls through and we have extra money. If we can even get one of those guys to sign I'll consider a huge success. I'm interested in the HS guys drafted in earlier rounds without the BA pedigree....Michael Wilson, Beau Capanna, and Juan Carlos Abreu. I have no idea about those guys and love the recent success we've had with other former HS guys lacking huge pedigrees (Ockimey and Dubon). Totally agreed with you. I think Quintana is the only guy who we could sign assuming we signed Groome. Quintana may have huge value behind the plate. |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871 
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2016 1:28:56 GMT -5
Thank you guys at SP for consistently making this one of the most interesting and enlightening times of the year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2016 2:36:09 GMT -5
This draft is built around one player and if they don't sign Groome, this draft year will be looked as a potential failure. I doubt they get another talent like Groome at number 13 next year.
The Sox have to get this deal done.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 12, 2016 3:53:18 GMT -5
I don't know what the concern is. You guys heard Groome, he doesn't care about money.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,607
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Post by radiohix on Jun 12, 2016 4:43:26 GMT -5
FWIW the Mariners signed their number 11 pick Kyle Lewis in less that 48 hours for slot value. He was rumored to be asking for Top 5 money before the draft which led him to fall to them.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 12, 2016 6:45:54 GMT -5
They almost always sign around that area unless they get low balled and feel like they aren't being given a fair deal like the Astros did with Aiken (although there was a justified injury concern there).
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2016 8:29:57 GMT -5
Here's my draft tracker excel sheet. You can play with the projected bonus demands and it will calculate the effect on the bonus pool. Right now, I have Groome in at 3.6 Mill. Maybe I'm just optimistic. That still leaves $400k or so. So perhaps we can get Christian Jones or 1-2 of those post round 10 high schoolers. Maybe I'm way off on Groome. We can give him $4mill. But that like leaves next to nothing to offer above the $100k limit after round 10. I'm not the best on estimating those projected bonuses. 2016 Sox draft.xlsx (20.02 KB) |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2016 9:15:22 GMT -5
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Post by ikonos on Jun 12, 2016 9:55:01 GMT -5
Where is the draft signing thread with projections. I always liked that and the draft discussion threads. Cant wait for both of them bubbling with signings and stories. As much leverage as Groome has to go back into the draft to improve on his draft position, next years draft is supposed to be even stronger draft. Teams let him slip by to 12th this year not because of his on field talent but because of other things and that is something he cant easily change with on field performance. Not coming to terms with Redsox only add to that. I do think he will sign because of that. Difference between projected 4M that will take him to sign and his slot of 3.12M is roughly 900K but if they dont sign him and lose that 3.12M they will also lose roughly $150k from that 900K. Edit: I see Mike Andrews posted the projections right after I asked for it. Thank you Mike  |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2016 9:58:42 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2016 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1 Jason Groome $4,000,000
2 CJ Chatham $1,000,000
3 Shaun Anderson $500,000
4 Bobby Dalbec $500,000
5 Mike Shawaryn $375,500
6 Steve Nogosek $281,100
7 Ryan Scott $25,000
8 Alan Marrero $100,000
9 Matt McLean $10,000
10 Santiago Espinal $50,000
After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Nick Quintana $500,000
35 John Rave $200,000
After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 Matthew Gorst
13 Brady Bramlett
14 Robby Sexton
15 Michael Wilson
16 Alberto Schmidt
17 Nick Sciortino
19 Kyle Hart
20 Nick Lovullo
21 Beau Cappanna
22 Granger Studdard
23 Juan Carlos Abreu
24 Hunter Smith
26 Jared Oliver
27 Vince Arobio
28 Jordan Scheftz
34 Aaron McGarity
36 Jordan Wren
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $7,341,600
Red Sox Cap: $6,997,400
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $7,347,270
Super wicked early projected not to sign
18 Trevor Stephan
25 Francsico Soto
29 Cam Shepherd
30 Tyler Fitzgerald
31 Christian Jones
32 Jeff Belge
33 Chad Hardy
37 Carter Aldrete
38 Austin Bergner
39 Jake Wilson
40 Carter Henry
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 12, 2016 10:46:09 GMT -5
This doesn't seem suspicious at all. |
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Post by bulldougy on Jun 12, 2016 10:50:35 GMT -5
Thanks Mike, much appreciated. I don't think Groome is going to get 4 million though. I'm guessing, for whatever that's worth, he wants to start his baseball career and a big paycheck as soon as possible. I know he has said that money wasn't that important and the Sox are his favorite team but that's not why I feel he'll sign for less. For some reason I think the last thing in the world he wants is to go back to school.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2016 10:59:18 GMT -5
This doesn't seem suspicious at all. First thing that entered my mind. |
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Post by hinder1 on Jun 12, 2016 11:53:24 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2016 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Jason Groome $4,000,000 2 CJ Chatham $1,000,000 3. Shaun Anderson $500,000 4 Bobby Dalbec $500,000 5 Mike Shawaryn $375,500 6 Steve Nogosek $281,100 7 Ryan Scott $25,000 8 Alan Marrero $100,000 9 Matt McLean $10,000 10 Santiago Espinal $50,000 Question, I have seen the penalties listed for exceeding the bonus pool listed as a maximum penalty of 100% of the dollars you exceed it plus loss of your next 2 1st round draft picks. Would it be possible for the Red Sox to sign everyone say at an additional $10 million and forfeit the picks? Given that they are looking at drafting around #20 in 2017 and if they contend again next year the 2018 pick is also possibly in the 20's would it not make more sense to sign 6-10 #2 - #5 picks talent this year. We know the Red Sox can afford the money as it would be roughly what it costs them to sign some veteran free agent #4 starter for 1 year. This might be a way to set up your farm system for the next 3-5 years if you just signed everyone and they can play. Aren't your odds better with 10 guys than 2? They could also do this in the future with the international signing pool once they escape their current penalty situation. After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Nick Quintana $500,000 35 John Rave $200,000 After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 12 Matthew Gorst 13 Brady Bramlett 14 Robby Sexton 15 Michael Wilson 16 Alberto Schmidt 17 Nick Sciortino 19 Kyle Hart 20 Nick Lovullo 21 Beau Cappanna 22 Granger Studdard 23 Juan Carlos Abreu 24 Hunter Smith 26 Jared Oliver 27 Vince Arobio 28 Jordan Scheftz 34 Aaron McGarity 36 Jordan Wren Total spent towards cap using these projections: $7,341,600 Red Sox Cap: $6,997,400 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $7,347,270
Super wicked early projected not to sign
18 Trevor Stephan 25 Francsico Soto 29 Cam Shepherd 30 Tyler Fitzgerald 31 Christian Jones 32 Jeff Belge 33 Chad Hardy 37 Carter Aldrete 38 Austin Bergner 39 Jake Wilson 40 Carter Henry |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 12, 2016 12:07:23 GMT -5
Any chance Mike for us to get this senior for a lot less than slot?
Steve Nogosek $281,100
I do like this pick, but I would guess his options are few.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2016 12:20:49 GMT -5
Any chance Mike for us to get this senior for a lot less than slot? Steve Nogosek $281,100 I do like this pick, but I would guess his options are few. Nogosek is a junior |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,840
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 12, 2016 12:53:52 GMT -5
Any chance Mike for us to get this senior for a lot less than slot? Steve Nogosek $281,100 I do like this pick, but I would guess his options are few. Nogosek is a junior Then I guess his write-up is wrong. www.soxprospects.com/players/nogosek-steve.htm |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2016 13:05:15 GMT -5
So, assuming Groome signs, where does he pencil in the next rankings? 5?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2016 13:10:55 GMT -5
I think that's a typo
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 12, 2016 13:32:55 GMT -5
So, assuming Groome signs, where does he pencil in the next rankings? 5? Not that my vote means much of anything, but 5 seems right to me. And closer to 4 than he is to 6. Lock him up. |
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 12, 2016 13:52:55 GMT -5
Why does mlb limit signings after 10 rounds to 100k not counting to the cap? Is that to help small market teams? After agent fees and taxes, the kid is not really getting much at all if he signs for 100k (certainly not the amount he would get in value from a scholarship). 200k seems like a much more reasonable number.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2016 14:31:48 GMT -5
Why does mlb limit signings after 10 rounds to 100k not counting to the cap? Is that to help small market teams? After agent fees and taxes, the kid is not really getting much at all if he signs for 100k (certainly not the amount he would get in value from a scholarship). 200k seems like a much more reasonable number. To help every team that doesn't like to spend more money than they have to. Same reason Walmart doesn't want the minimum wage raised while the heirs have a combined net worth of several hundred billion dollars. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2016 15:26:08 GMT -5
Here's my updated spreadsheet with some of Mike's numbers incorporated. I was pm'd an issue with the column widths not allowing display of all numbers, so column widths are now editable. I've added a couple of projections for what I'd like to see (Quintana and Christian Jones signing for $400k each). But it all hinges on how much Groome will cost. Anyway, feel free to play around the projections - 2016 Sox draft.xlsx (20.12 KB) |
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