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Boston Celtics 2016-17 Season Discussion
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 11:30:31 GMT -5
I wont be shocked if they keep both Isaiah and Bradley to play with Fultz long term. They play so many 3 guard lineups, but it really depends how good Fultz decides he wants to be defensively. 6'5 with almost a 6'10 wing span allows him to guard a lot of positions.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 11:48:02 GMT -5
3. Thinks one of the most interesting things this summer will be IT's extension. He doesn't believe that's high on Boston's list. Wonders how Thomas (who wants to get paid) will react if Boston doesn't look to extend him. He's either traded or extended. I really don't see Danny just letting him walk. What would that accomplish? Another exciting year for the team while the younger kids develop and gain valuable playoff experience with big games.... that's potentially more valuable than a late first round pick..
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 12:18:05 GMT -5
3. Thinks one of the most interesting things this summer will be IT's extension. He doesn't believe that's high on Boston's list. Wonders how Thomas (who wants to get paid) will react if Boston doesn't look to extend him. He's either traded or extended. I really don't see Danny just letting him walk. What would that accomplish? But they still have another year. Is it possible that they wait this offseason, let next play out and readdress? His value (in terms of contract) will likely never be higher and he may never be more important to the C's than right now. What if they draft Fultz? What if they sign Hayward? What if Brown takes a big step forward next year? All of those could put's IT's value lower than it is now. Then maybe you're looking at closer to 20 than 30. If the concerns over his body type, style of play and fit in Boston's ultimate title timeline are shared by Boston, wouldn't it make sense to NOT pay him after what is likely his career year? The question would then be how IT reacts to that.
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 12:30:14 GMT -5
I wont be shocked if they keep both Isaiah and Bradley to play with Fultz long term. They play so many 3 guard lineups, but it really depends how good Fultz decides he wants to be defensively. 6'5 with almost a 6'10 wing span allows him to guard a lot of positions. Sure but with IT, Bradley, Crowder, Smart, Rozier, Brown, Fultz and Hayward (including him bc the discussion is based on how you get the money to sign him) there just wouldn't be enough minutes to go around. You can say "Okay, bye" to Rozier but that doesn't move the needle. Last year, the minutes breakdown was IT - 34 AB - 33 JC = 32 MS - 31 JB - 17 TR - 17 GG - 11 And those are in different numbers of games (AB = 55, GG = 47) so some of the individual avgs get inflated as they play more time during injury Add Fultz and Hayward. Would imagine Hayward gets JC's minutes so that's easy. JC moves to the bench. Say you give him Rozier's minutes plus half of Green's to be around the 20MPG mark. Same with JB (give him the other half and he's around 20). So that leaves Fultz and Rozier to share 17 mpg? Again, you want to say goodbye to Rozier? Give Fultz his 17. Okay, but you still need more money likely for Hayward. Meanwhile, I keep hearing Bradley would be the most coveted in the trade market. Is that true? What's the return and, as UMASS asks, does that come with a cap number (meaning you have to find more space for GH). Point is, it won't be an easy exercise. Cap Space, Minutes, Roster Balance will all come into play. Not just who it is the better player.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 12:46:37 GMT -5
I wont be shocked if they keep both Isaiah and Bradley to play with Fultz long term. They play so many 3 guard lineups, but it really depends how good Fultz decides he wants to be defensively. 6'5 with almost a 6'10 wing span allows him to guard a lot of positions. Sure but with IT, Bradley, Crowder, Smart, Rozier, Brown, Fultz and Hayward (including him bc the discussion is based on how you get the money to sign him) there just wouldn't be enough minutes to go around. You can say "Okay, bye" to Rozier but that doesn't move the needle. Last year, the minutes breakdown was IT - 34 AB - 33 JC = 32 MS - 31 JB - 17 TR - 17 GG - 11 And those are in different numbers of games (AB = 55, GG = 47) so some of the individual avgs get inflated as they play more time during injury Add Fultz and Hayward. Would imagine Hayward gets JC's minutes so that's easy. JC moves to the bench. Say you give him Rozier's minutes plus half of Green's to be around the 20MPG mark. Same with JB (give him the other half and he's around 20). So that leaves Fultz and Rozier to share 17 mpg? Again, you want to say goodbye to Rozier? Give Fultz his 17. Okay, but you still need more money likely for Hayward. Meanwhile, I keep hearing Bradley would be the most coveted in the trade market. Is that true? What's the return and, as UMASS asks, does that come with a cap number (meaning you have to find more space for GH). Point is, it won't be an easy exercise. Cap Space, Minutes, Roster Balance will all come into play. Not just who it is the better player. You said get rid of AB or KO so getting rid of Kelly in your example opened the money... as far as minutes you can make it work ... Greene's minutes go away and Crowder and Smarts (if you kept him) minutes go way down like they should anyways and there is plenty of run for Fultz and Hayward even with Jaylens minutes going up. Isaiah would probably drop closer to 30 as well.
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 13:21:56 GMT -5
That's not quite enough as you'll likely need 10 to get Hayward. Need another 3 and Rozier doesn't cover that.
Already accounted for Green's minutes. Anways the details are less important. The larger point remains that Thomas, Bradley and Smart will all be due significant raises. I'm still going to be shocked if the long-term play is re-sign all 3. I know WE would argue that Smart is odd man but is that really the best play when you consider more than just "who is better".
Bradley's status, perceived value (if you believe the likes of Mannix who says he'd garner the most interest) contrasted with his injury history makes him more of a candidate than you might otherwise think. That's all.
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 13:22:56 GMT -5
All NBA teams out. Thomas made 2nd team.
Helpful to Boston's efforts, Hayward did not make a team so he's not eligible for the DVPE.
EDIT: he still has ways to get there (a short term deal that gives him another chance at all NBA)
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 14:00:48 GMT -5
Since there are a lot's of ways to move salary for Hayward, maybe the more interesting question of the offseason is who is the starting big next to Al? Can't see Zizic or Yabu stepping in right away (and, if they are quality backups at best, we should all be happy).
I know they like JaMychal Green at the deadline but how do they get the RFA while maintaining the room to sign GH (and gotta believe Memphis would match most offers). How much would Taj Gibson cost?
Who else would be of interest? Consistent secondary scoring was certainly a concern but we all agree that rebounding is a need to?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 18, 2017 15:01:54 GMT -5
Yeah but few of the "draft experts" had Brown as #3. It wasn't until mocks turned to "what we are hearing" vs "what teams should do" that we got any indication Brown was possible. In this context, I think that validates the "Danny can be unpredictable" narrative. Imo, he isn't that unpredictable. He will always go after the highest upside player in hopes he turns into a superstar. Yeah, Brown wasn't seen that by the draft experts for whatever reason, but after seeing the body and athleticism of Brown, it was a pretty safe call.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2017 15:13:18 GMT -5
www.celticsblog.com/2017/3/3/14792150/boston-celtics-max-free-agent-2017Just a refresher on the cap situation. If he takes $300,000 less we can keep Bradley and Crowder. Then use them to get a big, maybe a guy like Favors as they would need a SF. That makes more sense then getting more draft picks for Crowder or Bradley. We already have too many, we need more Vets to help us win now. We just would need to balance the roster. It would mean no Yabu though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2017 15:18:27 GMT -5
Pedro the point is at this time last year no one had them taking Brown. He was in that 7-10 ranking spot. Everyone had them taking Dunn or Murray. Danny didn't care about the so called draft experts opinions, he took who he wanted. The main reason he took Brown was because he had two stellar workouts. As of right now workouts haven't happened.
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 15:32:33 GMT -5
www.celticsblog.com/2017/3/3/14792150/boston-celtics-max-free-agent-2017Just a refresher on the cap situation. If he takes $300,000 less we can keep Bradley and Crowder. Then use them to get a big, maybe a guy like Favors as they would need a SF. That makes more sense then getting more draft picks for Crowder or Bradley. We already have too many, we need more Vets to help us win now. We just would need to balance the roster. It would mean no Yabu though. Given what they had been saying after he came to the US, I was assuming Yabu to Boston was a lock (of course, what is said by teams should be taken with a grain of salt). One nitpick of that article is that it mentions the empty roster spot charge but doesn't connect it with the idea that, because of it and Jackson's guarantee, it actually saves money against the cap to keep him. A small but important detail (not that it renders the article useless by any means).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2017 15:45:32 GMT -5
You're right it would save about $80,000 to keep him. As minimum salaries are $815,000 next year
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,846
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Post by wcp3 on May 18, 2017 17:59:52 GMT -5
Mannix just on T&R: 1. Fultz CLEARLY the guy. His "sources" (don't know how they measure relative to Ford's) indicated it's him and then a drop to Ball. 2. Agrees with RPJ that the move is to build long term and wait CLE and GS out (I'd just add that you don't have to stand pat, mind you. Build to stay in front of everyone else and be the #2 East team). 3. Thinks one of the most interesting things this summer will be IT's extension. He doesn't believe that's high on Boston's list. Wonders how Thomas (who wants to get paid) will react if Boston doesn't look to extend him. I would trust Mannix's sources 100 times more when it comes to Celts news. I'm not even saying this to throw shade at Ford - Mannix is just very reputable. There are several other local guys who've said for months the Celts front office loves Fultz, so this is a relatively pointless debate.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,846
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Post by wcp3 on May 18, 2017 18:16:01 GMT -5
Pedro the point is at this time last year no one had them taking Brown. He was in that 7-10 ranking spot. Everyone had them taking Dunn or Murray. Danny didn't care about the so called draft experts opinions, he took who he wanted. The main reason he took Brown was because he had two stellar workouts. As of right now workouts haven't happened. Right, but you're leaving out the part where Ainge wasn't a huge fan of Dunn or Murray. There have been reports for months about how much the Celtics' FO raves about Fultz, and that's unlikely to change with a couple workouts. These situations aren't really comparable.
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Post by texs31 on May 18, 2017 18:20:39 GMT -5
It's happening again . . .
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2017 18:48:20 GMT -5
Pedro the point is at this time last year no one had them taking Brown. He was in that 7-10 ranking spot. Everyone had them taking Dunn or Murray. Danny didn't care about the so called draft experts opinions, he took who he wanted. The main reason he took Brown was because he had two stellar workouts. As of right now workouts haven't happened. Right, but you're leaving out the part where Ainge wasn't a huge fan of Dunn or Murray. There have been reports for months about how much the Celtics' FO raves about Fultz, and that's unlikely to change with a couple workouts. These situations aren't really comparable. What reports are you talking about? Ford had them taking Dunn or Murray untill after Brown's workouts. Then reports surfaced that they were blown away by his workouts and all the experts starting switching there picks for Boston. That was all in the last couple of weeks before the draft. I'm certainly not saying there's a big chance Fultz isn't the guy. He sure seems like the guy, but anyone saying it's 100% going to be Fultz is kidding themselves. I could get on board with 95% chance, but that's about it right now.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 19:03:23 GMT -5
It better be Fultz or I'm leaving the bandwagon. He's the best chance this franchise has of getting that top player, with all due respect to Butler and Hayward etc... George I'm on the fence with he's pretty damn special but... still wouldn't trade the one for him.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 19:04:10 GMT -5
Btw I'm pretty sure I was in a mini depression when they took Brown now I love the guys so wtf do I know?
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 19:32:47 GMT -5
www.celticsblog.com/2017/3/3/14792150/boston-celtics-max-free-agent-2017Just a refresher on the cap situation. If he takes $300,000 less we can keep Bradley and Crowder. Then use them to get a big, maybe a guy like Favors as they would need a SF. That makes more sense then getting more draft picks for Crowder or Bradley. We already have too many, we need more Vets to help us win now. We just would need to balance the roster. It would mean no Yabu though. Given what they had been saying after he came to the US, I was assuming Yabu to Boston was a lock (of course, what is said by teams should be taken with a grain of salt). One nitpick of that article is that it mentions the empty roster spot charge but doesn't connect it with the idea that, because of it and Jackson's guarantee, it actually saves money against the cap to keep him. A small but important detail (not that it renders the article useless by any means). If you draft Fultz, you shouldn't be keeping around Smart and Bradley both so you should make a decision. If they don't want to comment longterm to Avery then he should be dealt for picks and cap space... assuming Hayward is going to sign here... Rozier should be kept as the 4th guard/developmental guy... he could still take a leap.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2017 22:36:07 GMT -5
Projected minutes for fun.
Isaiah 32 Bradley 30 Brown 27 Hayward 30 Horford 32 Fultz 25 Crowder 20 Zizic 12 Rozier 12 Yabusele 12 FA Center/PF 8
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2017 23:01:53 GMT -5
So what are you trading Smart for? It makes sense, but can you get anything for him is the question.
Also Brown getting 27 minutes while Crowder gets 20 seems a little off. Unless Brown really makes a big jump next year.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2017 7:28:08 GMT -5
So what are you trading Smart for? It makes sense, but can you get anything for him is the question. Also Brown getting 27 minutes while Crowder gets 20 seems a little off. Unless Brown really makes a big jump next year. It may be a bit off and that may be. Ore by end of the year than start but their minutes need to start balancing out... my hope is Brown starts with Crowder off the bench by the middle of the year. I'm trading Smart for a future first - hopefully unprotected to a questionable squad... even if it's a 2019, 2020 or heck a 2021 first as long as it's unprotected. Houston, OKC or maybe New Orleans or a team will want the young defensive stud who's still developing offensive game will be intriguing to them. Teams that won't have much hope of signing him unless they trade for his bird rights. I know you think trading for draft picks and no players is a waste and I understand where you are coming from, but if you need to open cap space for a guy like Hayward that's not a waste. Also, to your point, they have a ton of picks so it gives them a golden opportunity to make it an unprotected first and kick it years down the line. Danny, Brad and the ownership are here longterm so are we as fans... a really good team only has so many chances to add first round picks and we plan to be really good for a while so using the surplus now, to get some down the road isn't a waste it's spreading the wealth and forward thinking. If they are lucky again, then that first is a high first and they can add a young stud to a roster with Fultz, Brown and next years first in their early primes or use it to trade for a stud veteran player.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2017 7:51:35 GMT -5
Let's play a scenario where Danny cannot sign Hayward or another max guy... what should he do?
I think you guys know where I stand as far as trading the picks go... I wouldn't trade either Nets pick at this point... I am not giving up the opportunity to potentially draft my own big 3 for a guy like Jimmy Butler (I watched him not compete in that Bulls series - thank you no thank you).
Think about it:
Fultz is compared to Westbrook and Harden
Brown is like a young Butler
Then next years draft is a deep one again but with 4/5 players instead of guards... how perfect is that? Seriously, we can't draw it up any more perfectly. Don't pass on that chance.
As far as free agency goes at that point...
If they cut Zeller and Mickey, and renounce the rights to all FA but KO, I think they should have about 20m in cap space and 3 open roster spots. They might bring back a guy like Amir on a 2 year deal with a team option on the second year... maybe they can get McGee away from Memphis with a big contract offer... maybe Greg Monroe's value will be lower and the Celtics will find value in his defense (pretty good last year) and rebounding combined with his good low post scoring... he can't shoot tho so that lack of range isn't what the Celtics do... second unit guy might be different... or maybe they can trade for Paul George on a one year rental without giving up a Nets pick. Kelly, Smart, our 2018 first and the Clippers or Memphis first. Pacers new regime may want young players and a fresh start.
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Post by texs31 on May 19, 2017 8:05:09 GMT -5
Not sure I'd be happy but another guy to keep an eye on is Gallo. Danny has always seemed to have interest.
He could play stretch 4 (he did a lot with W Chandler in Denver). BIG problem though is rebounding and D. Much as we give Amir a hard time, he's better than DG in those important areas.
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