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Red Sox acquire Thornburg for Shaw, Dubon, Pennington
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 11:22:08 GMT -5
He had one good year. Where do you get Miller-esque from? Massive massive overpay. He has 2 good years. Great 2013 season, worth almost 1.5 wins. Then was injured in 2014 and had UCL repair and basically lost 2 years. Finally got healthy in 2016 and had a dominant year only focussing on relieving. So every healthy year, he's been great. Miller-esque I'm referring to his ability to pitch multiple innings, K more than a batter an inning and maintain a sub 3 ERA. Dave Cameron wrote about the massive adjustments he made in July. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/my-favorite-under-the-radar-trade-deadline-target/Thornburg threw more than one inning in eight of his 67 appearances last year, and only three of those 67 appearances were 1.2 IP or more. By comparison, Junichi Tazawa threw more that one inning in six of his 53 appearances last year. Calling Thornburg a multiple inning guy is a stretch. His 2013 season was also only good because of home run suppression (less reliable in small samples); he had a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA that year. If his 2016 season is the guy he'll be going forward, it wasn't a bad trade. But there's real risk there.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Dec 6, 2016 11:28:13 GMT -5
He has 2 good years. Great 2013 season, worth almost 1.5 wins. Then was injured in 2014 and had UCL repair and basically lost 2 years. Finally got healthy in 2016 and had a dominant year only focussing on relieving. So every healthy year, he's been great. Miller-esque I'm referring to his ability to pitch multiple innings, K more than a batter an inning and maintain a sub 3 ERA. Dave Cameron wrote about the massive adjustments he made in July. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/my-favorite-under-the-radar-trade-deadline-target/Thornburg threw more than one inning in eight of his 67 appearances last year, and only three of those 67 appearances were 1.2 IP or more. By comparison, Junichi Tazawa threw more that one inning in six of his 53 appearances last year. Calling Thornburg a multiple inning guy is a stretch. His 2013 season was also only good because of home run suppression (less reliable in small samples); he had a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA that year. If his 2016 season is the guy he'll be going forward, it wasn't a bad trade. But there's real risk there. Andrew Miller threw more than 1 inning in only 11/70 appearances in the regular season. Only 4 were 2 innings. Not a significant difference. Thornburg's 2013 season was also his rookie year. He had a strong season, HR suppression played a role, but still a strong rookie year. And if you read Cameron's article, you realize that 2013 Thornburg and 2016 Thornburg is like comparing 2 different pitchers, with Thornburg making major positive adjustments.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 6, 2016 11:34:22 GMT -5
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 6, 2016 11:41:03 GMT -5
Why? KLaw makes nonsensical arguments all the time. He didn't like the Espinoza deal because Stevie Wonder could see it was a horrendous deal. Trade a future front of the rotation guy for a JAG.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 6, 2016 11:47:14 GMT -5
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Post by awall on Dec 6, 2016 11:51:23 GMT -5
where was Travis Shaw late in the season? On the bench. Because he'd been consistently exposed as over-matched by lefties and quality RHers. As some others have pointed out, he is a replaceable depth piece, not a potential part of replacing Big Papi's production. It's a decent trade.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 6, 2016 11:55:25 GMT -5
I understand the back-and-forth on the trade value. That's typical and, since these are prospects and projection is involved, understandable. I would only ask that we stop pretending Marco Hernandez doesn't exist. To my mind he's a better bench bat than Dubon because the latter has a better glove at short and may actually have a better bat and starter potential - though that's not a given. Hernandez has carried an OPS > .780 in AA/AAA over the last two years himself. He is no stiff. It would be higher but he hardly walks at all, though that may be changing given his AAA and ML numbers. He's got some pop, just turned 24, and even has a major league track record. I also like his swing and his size a lot, so I'm biased.
This looks to be Dombrowski's MO, a gambler in a nice suit who throws a lot of chips on the table. Two big ifs: if Carson Smith is anywhere near what he was in Seattle, and if Thornburg has really broken out, he will have won this pot. I'm not a Shaw fan, though he was certainly good to have on the bench. He's only adequate defensively and he's so up-and-down with the bat he makes me seasick. Pennington is so far off I can hardly make him out. Dubon was the big piece here. That's the Brewer's end of the stakes, and that may be a winning hand real soon.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,451
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Post by ianrs on Dec 6, 2016 11:56:29 GMT -5
DD continues to baffle me in his ineptitude. Another overpay for a decent reliever. Bleh.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 6, 2016 11:57:35 GMT -5
I think this is a good trade. we gave up some prospects and Dubon was in line to be a super-sub, but we have coverage for him anyway. Pennington has a chance to be a very good pitcher. shaw looked like he was on the way out anyway because of how he performed in the late season. Thornburg showed in his brief closing that he can be plugged into that spot if Kimbrel falters. some are claiming that he was traded for to make a sweeter deal for Sale. Why would that be when a set-up man was wanted by DB coming into the Winter Meetings. that would be stuid to turn around and trade him. I see that there are some on this board that are ready to jump off the cliff, but i am interested in how they approach the International signings now that the Sox are over their penalty. that is where the value will be determined IMO.
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Post by cwaaa on Dec 6, 2016 12:01:24 GMT -5
Yeh, face value this is a bad trade. I kind of figured Dubon was a future starting MLB SS. As a 21 year old, he crushed AA pitching this year. Huh. Maybe the Boston FO really didnt see Dubon as a shortstop.
If it means anything, I didn't hate the Pomeranz trade. But Thornburg just feels like Carson Wentz 2.0. And you might have given up a 3 WAR player for him.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2016 12:05:05 GMT -5
I've been one of the bigger fans of Shaw and I believe he will be a good player for Milwaukee. He probably had the greatest opportunity he ever was going to get with the Sox this past season and he did not perform to the level necessary to be a regular in Boston. I think he is replaceable. Dubon could be a regular for Milwaukee but almost surely not one for the Sox. Pennington, as many have said, is just a lottery ticket at this point. The Sox needed another shut-down RP and they got one.
Overall, I think it is a fair deal for both sides. The Sox gave up depth to fill a critical need. Thus, the team has been improved without significant cost.
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Post by philarhody on Dec 6, 2016 12:22:02 GMT -5
Are we sure this Thornburg guy's even good? There was a time when buying high on relievers was a no-no due to the volatile nature of the commodity. Now Keith Law nods in approval as if a 5'10 righthander is going to morph into Andrew Miller.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 6, 2016 12:25:41 GMT -5
I hav no idea about this. I don't mind Shaw. I love Travis. I think we have a ton of 3b in minors. My binky was Pennington. I thought he was a steal in the draft. Dubon I gonna miss also. I hope DD knows this guy. We're supplying the league with our guys lol.
I think this opens up Sam Travis more. Even though he doesn't play 3b but it shows they must be high on him. We'll see. I don't know why we couldn't just buy a reliever. Please hold on to the top prospects. I believe in Devers.
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Post by borisman on Dec 6, 2016 12:32:29 GMT -5
This trade gives me a great deal of confidence that another trade is coming.Shaw and Dubon were the closest players the Red Sox had to replacing Ortiz and Hill (although Dubon wasnt ready yet). There's no fallback plan left, so now it's time to wait for the other shoe to drop.... Yeah, that other shoe may come in the form of a Salvatore Ferragamo brand (a Moncada, Devers, Kopech and/or Groome). What's not to like.I think we got another Carson Smith in this deal.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 6, 2016 12:35:23 GMT -5
I notice that a lot of the naysayers are saying that he is an injury risk. You could say that about any pitcher on any other team. Isn't it possible that the players that the Sox traded could have injuries too?? they needed a set-up man and got one. the free agents were too high price and they had to go the trade route to get what they wanted. all trades are a risk no matter what. to shoot this down before any evaluation can be made is just silly. Prospects are used for trades...that is just a fact. some are developed to be major leaguers and hopefully the braintrust can see which ones will be the future of the team. team control means so mjuch more now than in the past and is used as a tool to make trades such as this. I would suggest the nervous nellies to calm down have a nice Johnny Walker Red and watch next year to see if it was worth it or not.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 6, 2016 12:43:28 GMT -5
I keep hearing "Dubon was blocked." Did anyone actually watch Bogaerts defense this year? It took a big step back and there have always been questions on if he'd stick once he fills out. I'd expect he will end up at 3B fairly soon. Shaw and Pennington were fine, but I don't understand the reasoning behind trading Dubon here. A potential starting SS is one thing they didn't have in their system besides Dubon.
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Post by borisman on Dec 6, 2016 12:45:36 GMT -5
This is a forum and people post their opinions. Just because you like it or want to wait and see that's fine also. We don't need to calm down when DD has a history of trading the top prospects so getting another Pomeranz for a Moncada will not sit well.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,624
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Post by nomar on Dec 6, 2016 12:48:21 GMT -5
I keep hearing "Dubon was blocked." Did anyone actually watch Bogaerts defense this year? It took a big step back and there have always been questions on if he'd stick once he fills out. I'd expect he will end up at 3B fairly soon. Shaw and Pennington were fine, but I don't understand the reasoning behind trading Dubon here. A potential starting SS is one thing they didn't have in their system besides Dubon. Dubon is a bad fielder at SS.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 6, 2016 12:54:47 GMT -5
I keep hearing "Dubon was blocked." Did anyone actually watch Bogaerts defense this year? It took a big step back and there have always been questions on if he'd stick once he fills out. I'd expect he will end up at 3B fairly soon. Shaw and Pennington were fine, but I don't understand the reasoning behind trading Dubon here. A potential starting SS is one thing they didn't have in their system besides Dubon. Dubon is a bad fielder at SS. Says who?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 6, 2016 12:55:07 GMT -5
I keep hearing "Dubon was blocked." Did anyone actually watch Bogaerts defense this year? It took a big step back and there have always been questions on if he'd stick once he fills out. I'd expect he will end up at 3B fairly soon. Shaw and Pennington were fine, but I don't understand the reasoning behind trading Dubon here. A potential starting SS is one thing they didn't have in their system besides Dubon. Dubon is a bad fielder at SS. Yeah I'm guessing from what the Sox see, Dubon is a future 2B or CF, that's if he ever becomes a regular starter that is. At least this trade doesn't make my stomach turn like the Espinoza deal.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 6, 2016 13:00:35 GMT -5
What? He pretty much says Thornburgs changeup is non existent when in fact it's his best pitch easily. This article doesn't even make sense However I do like the trade as it opens up trading other pieces in the bullpen (Barnes or Kelly) with someone else for an impact bat at DH, or anything. We now have a glut of RH power pitching in relief.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2016 13:00:45 GMT -5
Lost in all this talk about overpays, while indeed relevant..but a lot of confirmation bias going on also, is that the Sox just haven't produced enough of these type arms and have to seek them in the marketplace. If previous regimes had even a modicum of success in this regard, these risks wouldn't be in play as much.
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Post by thursty on Dec 6, 2016 13:02:58 GMT -5
Red Sox are strong in on Sale at Rosenthal; does anyone believe the Red Sox won't get fleeced again?
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 6, 2016 13:06:21 GMT -5
Are we sure this Thornburg guy's even good? There was a time when buying high on relievers was a no-no due to the volatile nature of the commodity. Now Keith Law nods in approval as if a 5'10 righthander is going to morph into Andrew Miller. I saw quite a few Brewers games this year and I'm not scout, but I can attest he has a great fastball/changeup mix that works well on righties and lefties. He got a lot of swings and misses and generally I'd compare him to a more effective Matt Barnes, or Tazawa. I Will miss Travis Shaw and his awesome hot streaks where he hits a couple balls 110 mph at just the right time. Also provided good defense at third snd first. Overall I think a valuable LH assett. Pennington haven't seen much of, and dubon wasn't going to play second or the OF for us, but I am happy with Thornburg. Good work DD knock on wood.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 6, 2016 13:08:41 GMT -5
It's like the FO sees Pennington is in low A ,So screw it we will just draft someone next year. I agree two guys are enough. Our prospects grade out better than 90% of these teams.
DD looks at a guy in A/a- as nothing. There nobody's. wow we cleaned out and if they do Sale what's left? If you look at it almost all of our roster is young . Hanley and Panda you can replace with Devers, Travis, Moncada. After that your whole team is very young.
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