2017 Patriots Off-season

I like my avatar but I'm probably going to change it soon. I just want to be right because I want the best possible situation in terms of value.

You keep failing to understand something simple, which is at the core of why all the speculations and your breathless analysis mean less than nothing:

The Patriots CANNOT TRADE A PERSON WHO'S NOT UNDER CONTRACT.

They can't -even- talk about trading someone who's not under contract. Belichick has said so explictly publicly when addressing those same reports you keep citing.

So when you cite the Patriots 'trying to trade Butler for Cooks' as prime evidence that the Patriots want to trade Butler, I circle back to:

YOU CANNOT TRADE SOMEONE NOT UNDER CONTRACT. That's not how RFA works.

Any reports that the Patriots were talking about trading Butler for Cooks should be disqualified on that grounds alone. You are buying way, way too much into those reports. The only thing -likely- in there is that yes, the Saints don't want to give up the number 11 pick. But all of those reports mindlessly repeat 'trade Butler' without considering exactly what the Patriots have the right to do in RFA.

Pedro's correct in the Patriots having the leverage. The Saints have no way of getting Butler at -their- price without the Patriots agreeing to it, which is why the leverage is all the Patriots.

Yes, Butler can sign the tender. At that point, the Patriots -could- agree with a lower package, but there is -no- way the Saints can give up a lower pick package -without- the Patriots agreeing to it under the RFA offer rules. And the Patriots would, at that point, be in control of a 1 year 4 million contract for a cornerback.

At that- point the Patriots decide, not the Saints, what they want to do. They can easily just trade Butler to, say, the Cowboys, and the Saints can't do anything about it. Which is why the Saints have no leverage in this case.

The Saints' only recourse -under the current circumstances- to being absolutely guaranteed they get Butler is to do the RFA rule: Sign Butler and give up their first round pick.

All the rest is speculative.

Which is exactly why the Patriots should get the equivalent to the value of the number 11 pick if they don't end up with the number 11 pick.

www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/new-england-patriots-michael-lombardi-malcolm-butler-will-cost-saints-no-11-pick



I put far, far more credibility into this analyis beause it -actually- matches up with what we actually know of the process -and- with everything the Patriots have done and said.

You're relying on a whole lot of speculation and you have the nerve to call it 'the real world'? By -all- reports, all the activity here has been on the Saints' part, the Patriots haven't said a -damn- thing in all of this, period.

Which seems to me to be that -you- are the one speculating on facts not at all in evidence.

When you talk about the real world, you're talking about that real world where there's one set of rules for the Jets, and another set of rules for the Patriots, right? Because then you wouldn't be stupid enough to bring up the Revis tampering case as though this were perfectly okay for the Patriots to do.

I mean, Goodell -smacked- the Saints for Bountygate, and the Patriots on Deflategate and Spygate, for a whole -lot- less than this, and you think it's realistic they'd take that risk again for -this-?

There is literally NOTHING the Saints can do except do what they've done: posture and hope public pressure will get the Patriots to trade Butler to them at their price.

Or just pay the price.

Either way, there isn't anything that the Saints can do right now except a) make an offer or b) wait for Butler to sign an offer.  And at that point, it's entirely the Patriots' decision.

If Butler signs that offer, I think, it's entirely likely that Butler remains a Patriot home opening day.

I never thought the Patriots were going to get the 11th pick. I just think the Patriots should get close to the value of it. Which would be the 31 and 43 picks, which is the Patriots first round pick and Saints second round pick. Maybe BB works with Peyton and takes a little less for working with him on the Cooks deal and takes the Saints 3rd round pick instead of the second round pick but in the end, Butler is worth more than JUST the 31 pick. That was my point all along.

I think the two trades will look like this-

Patriots receive-
Cooks
Saints 2nd or 3rd round pick
Saints 4th round pick (which the Patriots will lose because of Deflate gate)

Saints receive-
Butler (with the a extension)
Patriots 3rd round pick

The Patriots will receive more because they had more leverage in the end. I left out the Patriots first round pick in all of this because the Patriots will ultimately keep the pick, even after the pick had been exchanged twice.

patriotswire.usatoday.com/2017/03/16/malcolm-butlers-trade-to-saints-feels-imminent/

This whole thing is not just speculating on my part, this article says exactly the same thing.

I don't think there's a separate set of rules for teams. If the Jets did bountygate they would have been punished hard. I do think deflategate was a witch Hunt, but let's not kid ourselves the Patriots brought it on themselves. They bend the rules every chance they get. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, a ton of teams do it. Thing is with all our winning other teams are jealous, so they assume we are doing more than just bending rules. That's why I find it so funny you think the Patriots won't bend the rules.

If you look back at spygate, deflategate and the Revis situation, one thing happened everytime. Another team reported a violation to NFL that they investigated. A deal between Saints and Patriots doesn't involve any other teams. There's no one that feels they got slighted to report to NFL. As long as Bill keeps saying the right thing in public nothing is going to happen.

I don't think the Patriots are leaking a ton of information, mostly Saints and that created the problem. The minute they leaked they were talking Butler trade, it complicated things. They were so stupid that they didn't even think about it being against the rules. Just my opinion but I think they wanted to show fans that the Cooks trade was going to get them Butler, so they would understand it. That's why Bill had to go out and make statements, so it didn't look like they were doing anything wrong. That's why you had like a 100 reports saying they talked about a Cooks and Butler trade. Then a few days later a couple reports saying it never happened. That's the Patriots trying to fix the mess the Saints created.

I'm not going to keep debating this over and over again. At this point let's see how it plays out. If Butler signs his tender and then gets traded to Saints for something close to pick #32 then the reports like the one above will have been right on. If he gets traded to the Saints for a package close to #11 pick than Pedro will have been right. Time will tell!

Yes, ignore what -Belichick- says in favor of an opinion article that assumes the Patriots, a team known for top secrecy, are agreeing to this public dance in full view. And 'imminent' was like, two weeks ago. And still counting.

Cooks differs from Butler because Cooks a drafted player who had a specific rookie contract that, when it expires, allows him to be an unrestricted free agent. There is nothing complicated in that case, either sign him when his contract expires, or lose him. They obviously chose to trade him before then. They can franchise him if they want to keep him longer, but that's not a desirable option for a team that has enough trouble with the salary cap.

The current situation with Butler is that because he came in undrafted, his contract he signed as a rookie means when it expires, it let him start free agency -earlier- than Cooks by a couple years, but because he doesn't yet have enough service time in the NFL, it means it's a 'restricted free agent'.

So in Cooks' case, he already has a contract he's locked into. The Saints control that contract and they can do whatever they want. They obviously choose to control said contract.

Oh, and the Saints had less leverage, too, at least when it came to finances. Why?

Because Cooks was due a bonus a few days after the trade. If the Saints wanted to not pay the bonus, they had to trade him before then.
The Patriots ended up paying that bonus. -That- was the Patriots' leverage for getting the Cooks trade done earlier. Apparently no other team wanted to pay a higher price before that self-imposed deadline the Saints had.

If the Saints had wanted to keep him, they would simply have paid him the bonus and kept going, but to keep him for two years meant picking up the option. They could have, yes, but then they would have run into salary cap problems and they decided they would be best served allocating resources from offense to defense.


In the case of Butler, it's already been explained ad nauseum, but let's try this again from a Patriots perspective:

Essentially the Patriots have control over the following:

1) Butler can sign the offer and be stuck with the Patriots for another year at 3.9 million. This seems to be what the Patriots want. They well may value that one year at 3.9 million -and- a compensation pick far more than they'd value a first rounder at 32. Which is why I think pedrofanforever45 is more likely correct that the sticking point is they want a higher value than 32. The Patriots also have the option of franchise tagging him once that year is up, so for about two years, they'd be spending between 15-20 million... or 7.5 to 10 million a year. That's not too bad a price to pay for a cornerback like that. It's far, far too shortsighted to look at it as a straight-up 'compensation vs draft picks' issue. There's a whole lot more to the calculations than that, including that Gilmore replaces Butler -as- the number 1 corner -and- Butler replaces -Ryan- as the number 2 corner in that scenario. It's not a straight-up 'Gilmore replaces Ryan' calculation. If you're doing what's best for the team -this year-, frankly, I'd just wait out Butler and make him sign that offer so you can have him for one year and then franchise him, THEN let him go after you've used up his prime years at the money you want.

The decision for franchising Butler under -that- circumstances is the Patriots'.


2) The Saints can give him a contract -and- give up the number 1 pick they own. The pick is NOT at all negotiable if they give him that contract. The contract the Saints can give him is up to them, but under -that- circumstance, the Patriots get the number 11 pick. Period.
This is the least desirable option for the Saints, and even then, at that point, the Patriots are the one making the decision between matching the contract OR taking the pick. It's the Patriots' choice there.

3) Butler can sign the offer, -and- the Patriots can trade him for whatever they want. At -that- point, the Saints can then make the offer of a lower draft pick and whatever they want. But New England does -not- have to trade him unless they like the offer. See point 1, though, the Patriots may well prefer to have Butler at 4 million for 1 year -and- a compensation pick than just the first round pick at 32. And that's the Saints' problem, they need to up the offer to get the Patriots to do said trade. At that point, the Saints -still- have to convince the Patriots that their offer is better than what they get with 1). The Patriots control whether they want to accept that trade or not.

There is absolutely -no- obligation for the Patriots to trade Butler at any point, no matter how New Orleans cries and begs. Which is why they control that procedure.

Ultimately, it boils down to this: Butler's Agent is having a hard time getting the Saints to cough up enough money -and- compensation -because- Butler is an RFA.

This is also at the core of why the Patriots don't just pay Butler straight up - because Butler wants to be compensated -like- a regular free agent, but the Patriots are simply -not- ripping up that 3.9 million dollar tender contract, because that represents -tremendous- value to them.

Otherwise this 'imminent' trade would have been long done long ago because the Patriots would have already extended Butler to a contract, not the Saints, since the Patriots are the team with much, much more cap space to work with than the Saints.

You guys keep jumping down my throat for making assumptions, but your whole theory is based on one large assumption.  That the Saints would trade Cooks for anything, best they could get and Patriots only trade Butler for X.  We have no clue what X is, besides what reports say.  What if the Patriots want to trade Butler?

I don't think Saints would have just traded Cooks for anything.  They wanted mid round pick, got late first plus more.  For example I don't think they trade him for late second if that's all they get.  They traded him because Pat's gave them a return they thought was fair.

The Patriots can't market Butler the way Saints did Cooks, because of restricted free agency rules.  That being said we have reports they talked trade with Saints.  Also reports say Texans would give up second round pick for Butler.  That's a bunch of chatter and sure does seem to support that Patriots are seeing what's available in a trade for Butler.  Nevermind the report that you posted saying both teams are motivated to make this happen.  When there's smoke there is usually a fire.

If you go by the assumption that Butler wants out and Patriots would rather get more now in a trade than a comp pick next year, everything changes.  Revis and let's say pick #32 is better than an unhappy Butler and a comp pick.  

The great thing about this debate is that time will awsner the question about who's right.

Not that it means a hell of a lot but Kraft when asked today said the Pats don't intend to trade Butler and hopes that he signs the offer sheet.
When asked about JG he said he would leave that up to BB.
Keeping Butler and trading JG is what I want, maybe there is still hope.

Just a friendly little wager.  It's certainly not "everyone".

Have you -actually- thought through the implications of all that smoke as compared to what the RFA rules gives the Patriots?

Starting with the logic fallacity that 'where there's smoke, there's fire'...

Sometimes, you know, smoke is caused by, not an actual fire, but someone trying desperately to -start- a fire.   Or sometimes it's a smoke machine.

Now where your whole premise falls apart is that you've taken all that smoke seriously, and you believe that the Patriots are seriously having talks over a player they CANNOT TALK ABOUT WITH OTHER TEAMS...

-How- does it benefit the Patriots in any way to talk trade about a situation in which they control the player? Why -would- they be talking about a 'second rounder from the Texans' when they could get a first rounder simply by letting another team, ANY TEAM, sign Butler and just let him go?

It doesn't benefit the Patriots one single bit. All they have to do is keep their mouth shut, -not- match the contract, and get a first rounder and that's that. I mean, seriously, if you bought the second round talk -and- that the Patriots want to trade him, then the simplest course of action for them to do is to keep their mouth shut, let a team sign him, and be done with it. Or just trade him -after- he accepts their tender, without saying a word.

If the Patriots, in fact, -actually- want to trade Butler, then the simplest question, based on the smoke you keep citing as supporrting your theory, is... why don't they just keep their mouth shut and -let him go- under RFA rules? The draft pick they get would almost assuredly be better than the 32nd pick they get from the Saints.

There is, in fact, no need to talk trade. Just let Butler go, or trade him -after- he signs the offer. Not before. And almost assuredly for a pick better than the 32nd from the Saints. Since that's their own pick and the lowest they can get in the first round, by defintion, ANY OTHER PICK in the first round is better!

So the next question is...

Who actually benefits from all that 'smoke'?

The Saints, who are trying to get the Patriots to trade Butler for their price?

Why yes, it would.

In fact, if you buy the whole 'second round from the Texans' bullcrap, then by comparision, golly, the Saints's 32nd pick look better! Never mind, oh, having Dallas sign Butler so that the Patriots end up with the 28. Or the Steelers signing Butler, and the Patriots ending up with the 29th. Both teams of which actually -have more cap room- than the Saints.

Jeezus, the whole conspiracy bull**** that you have to swallow to believe that the Patriots are actively trying to trade Butler doesn't even -give- the Patriots the best potential draft pick they could have if they just STAND PAT AND LET THE PROCESS PLAY OUT.