mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,049
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Post by mobaz on Jul 11, 2017 13:54:17 GMT -5
The math is real hard with the wings. For a typical game with 10 man rotation, it looks something like this:
IT 33 Same as last year
Smart 25 Less (-5)
Rozier 15 Same
DJ/Nader
Hayward 33 Same as Bradley
Brown 17 Same
Crowder 23 Less (-9)
Tatum 17
Morris 15 Same as Jerebko
Semi
Horford 32 Same
Baynes 15 Less than Amir (-5)
Zizic 15 Less than KO (-5)
Theis
Yabu
Smart, Jaylen and Jayson seem light, and bigs are down 10 MPG from last year (even if you include Jerebko/Morris as bigs). I'm assuming by mid-season one of Crowder/Morris is traded for a big. Otherwise they are committing to going quite a bit smaller all season.
(note the subtraction math gets funky because Bradley missed so many games)
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 11, 2017 13:56:08 GMT -5
As much as I want to add a 4th veteran guard, there are almost none still available. It's basically Ian Clarke and I have to believe he gets more money or a better fit. The rest just don't fit well. We need a shooter. As of right now I keep Jackson. I don't even like him, but just for depth. Maybe when rosters get cut down another guard will be available. Theis would need a very strong training camp and preseason to make the team. Looks like a guy they like that added depth. They didn't know how things would unfold. If they could bring over Yabu and that they were going to get Morris. A 4th guard or even another veteran big like Bogut or Speights makes more sense. Good point, the defining moment of first roster cut downs. A guard to handle the ball and shoot could be available. I agree on theis. STILL think Danny will get another big .Who he uses to get him will be interesting. |
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 11, 2017 13:58:06 GMT -5
If Thomas, Smart and Rozier are your top 3 ball handlers and you have Allen on a 2-way as your "Wow, that went south quickly" #4, Jackson is pure excess (regardless of where he falls in anyone's opinion on the bad-to-mediocre scale). Theis a mystery for sure but his agreement was so early in the period (and he's a big) that it might give an indication of there thinking on him. Jackson may change, but from what he has shown to date, not sure he fits. |
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 11, 2017 14:00:57 GMT -5
The math is real hard with the wings. For a typical game with 10 man rotation, it looks something like this: IT 33 Same as last year Smart 25 Less (-5) Rozier 15 Same DJ/Nader Hayward 33 Same as Bradley Brown 17 Same Crowder 23 Less (-9) Tatum 17 Morris 15 Same as Jerebko Semi Horford 32 Same Baynes 15 Less than Amir (-5) Zizic 15 Less than KO (-5) Theis Yabu Smart, Jaylen and Jayson seem light, and bigs are down 10 MPG from last year (even if you include Jerebko/Morris as bigs). I'm assuming by mid-season one of Crowder/Morris is traded for a big. Otherwise they are committing to going quite a bit smaller all season. (note the subtraction math gets funky because Bradley missed so many games) Interesting |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2017 14:49:48 GMT -5
Danny won't force a trade just to get a big but he will explore all option s
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2017 16:33:17 GMT -5
I don't think Smarts minutes look low. Browns don't look bad either. Tatums, Morris and even Crowders minutes look low. Tatum needs minutes, a lot of them. Looks like 3rd best scoring option and the best rebounder among the 4/3 group. Morris is a waste playing only 15 minutes. Crowder needs more than 23 minutes also.
Injuries will open up minutes. I also wonder if Brad will play both Baynes and Zizic a total of 30 minutes a night. It will help our rebounding, but it would also limit the amount you play small ball. I can see there minutes really being all about the match up. Zizic might find it hard to get minutes without injuries.
Brad loves small ball and this roster is designed for it. Can easily see Morris getting a lot of Zizic minutes.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2017 18:55:53 GMT -5
Not that it impacts the Cs anymore but George was quoted saying that the stories of him going to LAL were overblown.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2017 19:48:59 GMT -5
Minutes:
Hayward - 33
Thomas - 30
Horford - 30
Tatum - 27
Crowder - 22
Brown - 22
Smart - 25
Rozier - 9
Morris - 22
Baynes - 10
Zizic - 10
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2017 20:09:57 GMT -5
Whoops wrong image here... interesting quote from Stevens below...
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2017 20:10:18 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2017 20:18:20 GMT -5
The exercise is . . . let's just say challenging (was going with futile, originally) for many reasons.
Primary is the one UMASS suggested and thats injuries.
For example, I'd feel pretry comfortable in predicting that someone in that top 8 will miss at least 20 games. It's the nature of the grind. Many of the others will likely miss somewhere in the 5-10 game range. That will lead to an uptick in someone's minutes.
That also plays into why I think Rozier looks extremely light. I also think they just like him too much to not find a way for more minutes. Not sure how yet but . . .
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Post by texs31 on Jul 11, 2017 20:36:30 GMT -5
Dedmon to Atlanta. 2yrs, 14 min.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2017 20:44:47 GMT -5
It's good value, but what are the Hawks doing? Every move says rebuild, then this.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2017 21:03:26 GMT -5
It's good value, but what are the Hawks doing? Every move says rebuild, then this. Good contract to move later for pieces in the future. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 11, 2017 21:38:05 GMT -5
Only way to predict minutes is based on a per game basis not really trying to figure out the season average. I feel around 10 mins from Rozier on a typical game with all healthy is about right. His season average will be higher due to injuries etc. I tried to picture a typical game with a 10 man rotation
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2017 22:50:53 GMT -5
It's good value, but what are the Hawks doing? Every move says rebuild, then this. Good contract to move later for pieces in the future. Not really. What they might get is not worth the extra wins and loss of playing time for young players. What is a team going to trade for Dedmon? You see this all the time, teams just can't fully commit to a rebuild. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2017 22:55:33 GMT -5
Rozier is going to play more than 10 minutes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 12, 2017 6:18:48 GMT -5
KCP to the Lakers on a one year deal. That probably decreases the Celtics getting that Lakers 2-5 pick by a lot.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2017 7:21:39 GMT -5
Rozier is going to play more than 10 minutes. On the season he will average quite a bit more than that. But on a typical night in December with Everyone healthy I'm not so sure on that. Maybe 12-13. He's going to have to fight and take big minutes by his play not allowing them to limit them. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2017 8:02:27 GMT -5
KCP to the Lakers on a one year deal. That probably decreases the Celtics getting that Lakers 2-5 pick by a lot. Not ideal but better there than in Brooklyn and that was likely the other option. Also, the Lakers will still stink so it's quite possible they still have a top 5 pick next year. KCP is a nice player but he's not some major game changer. He was on the Pistons last year with a lot more NBA ready talent and in the EAST and they only mustered 37 wins. Perhaps, the Lakers will win 30 but I wouldn't bank on it. I also believe him and Lopez with their expiring contracts are trade candidates. Tanking may do nothing for them but acquiring more picks does even later firsts. KCP on an 18m expiring contract should bring back a nice trade deadline return. So no it's not good but it could be a lot worse. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 12, 2017 10:08:22 GMT -5
Just bc, I figured I'd to a league-wide "outstanding business" update:
Restricted Free Agents - Most of the top available free agents are of the restricted variety (Mirotic, Noel, Plumlee, Len, Ja Green, Simmons). Unfortunately for them, there only 10 teams that can come up with $10Mn in Cap Space without making a salary moving trade (that number is not entirely arbitrary as after that group, only San Antonio and Utah can even come up with $4.6 and that's right about where the QO's are for most of them so . . . ).
Since Chicago (Mirotic), Dallas (Noel), Denver (Plumlee) and Phoenix (Len) are in that group of 10, I'm not sure how much leverage the remaining RFA class has. I could see some taking their qualifying offers.
Still their are some additional teams (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Indiana, Orlando, Philadelphia and Sacramento) that either have or can get to $10Mn.
Unrestricted Free Agency - There are still some interesting (at least in name) UFAs that were part of rotations last year (though the top 2 or 3 - Gasol, Ginobili and, maybe, Lee - are likely waiting to see what happens with Simmons before San Antonio fits them in). Former stars (like Rose, Bogut and Deron Williams) and specialists (Mbah a Moute, T Allen, Ilyasova, Shabazz Muhammad, Sefolosha, et al) will be fighting over the remaining space and exceptions available to teams.
Trades - Most of the trade speculation centers on Carmelo Anthony. Many feel Houston is the likely destination but Cleveland could still try and get into the mix.
Pre-season buyouts - Wade is the big name here with Chicago in rebuild mode. If he does get bought out, contenders could be interested (Cleveland was thought to be a spot but they just used a significant chunk of their TPE on bringing Cedi Osman over so I'm not sure what's left).
Not much else left in terms of player movement though there is likely to be a small trade or two between now and opening night.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 12, 2017 10:09:30 GMT -5
As a follow up, Woj reporting that Hou and New York are working Anthony trade scenarios including some 4 team deals.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2017 16:12:29 GMT -5
Rozier is going to play more than 10 minutes. On the season he will average quite a bit more than that. But on a typical night in December with Everyone healthy I'm not so sure on that. Maybe 12-13. He's going to have to fight and take big minutes by his play not allowing them to limit them. He averaged 16.3 minutes in last years playoffs in 17 games. I think this is the year he starts taking Smarts minutes. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 12, 2017 19:41:22 GMT -5
Steve Kyler reporting that the buzz in Vegas is that Houston may have their deal for Anthony.
The thinking from others is that it 4 teams are needed. Houston and New York, of course. Then a 3rd to take on Ryan Anderson's contract. But for that to happen, said team would need to be rewarded with something Houston doesn't have. Hence the 4th team.
Could be interesting if true.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2017 19:51:08 GMT -5
That's interesting - losing Anderson will hurt... adding 2 guys who aren't great 3 point shooters to Harden who also isn't one in that offense they bombs away will be a weird mix
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