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2017 Celtics offseason
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2017 16:13:40 GMT -5
Marcus Smart shot 40% from 3 in the playoffs last year. And no I don't think that's an indicator of anything. I wasn't comparing them as players I was comparing your analysis of them. One you use all eye test and ignore the stats the other you use all stats and ignore the other stuff. I just find it interesting is all. That's just not true. When you watch Smart and Rozier, you think they both have the same upside? Rozier in his limited minutes has done things Smart will just never be able to do. Unless you believe that what your saying just isn't true. Nevermind Roziers numbers have improved and the last two years he made a big jump in playoffs both years. Smart is the opposite, his numbers overall just haven't really improved. Sure somethings like assists have gone up, but with that he had a big spike in turnovers. His shooting numbers from his 1st year are still his best. Rozier goes from 22% to just about 32% from year one to year two shooting 3s. I'm not trying to knock Smart here, but his inability to drive and score like he did at will in College limits his upside unless he can improve his shooting. Rozier doesn't have those issues. Maybe I'm to low on Smart and to high on Rozier, who knows, that's just my opinion though. For me one just seemed NBA ready day one and the other was more raw and needed development. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 11, 2017 16:17:23 GMT -5
It's hard to say who has more upside.
I'm a fan of both players btw... I'm hoping they extend Smart since cap room isn't going to be possible going forward.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 11, 2017 17:19:34 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that getting a player half way through the 2nd rd that is developing the way Rozier is a big bonus!! I'm hoping for more of the same from Semi, he is a lot like Crowder but more athletic.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2017 17:34:54 GMT -5
Beware of overrating Rozier and underrating Smart just because we've seen less of the former (which makes it easier to dream on him). Smart is the much more polished player who can lean on his defense and ballhandling, while the only plus skill Rozier has shown for an extended stretch of NBA time is his rebounding. Rozier needs to significantly improve the same areas you're knocking Smart for (shooting, finishing at the rim). Remember, Smart is just 11 days older than Rozier, and given the small age disparity between them, not sure it's fair to say that Rozier has a higher ceiling. The only thing you can really hang your hat on is "trajectory," but it's much easier to paint yourself an upwards trajectory when you've been toiling in obscurity on the bench and in the D-League rather than getting 25+ minutes per game on a playoff team.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2017 17:35:55 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that getting a player half way through the 2nd rd that is developing the way Rozier is a big bonus!! I'm hoping for more of the same from Semi, he is a lot like Crowder but more athletic. Rozier was a first-rounder (16th overall pick). |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 11, 2017 18:16:08 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that getting a player half way through the 2nd rd that is developing the way Rozier is a big bonus!! I'm hoping for more of the same from Semi, he is a lot like Crowder but more athletic. I could agree with you if Rozier wasn't a first round pick |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 11, 2017 18:17:02 GMT -5
Should we maybe read into this starting line up?
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 11, 2017 20:35:30 GMT -5
My bad, sorry. Although he looked like a second rd pick tonight. Evidence you cant get too high on a guy in preseason.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2017 23:11:21 GMT -5
There's no doubt in my mind who will be here 2 years from now in Smart versus Rozier. It's Smart.
Rozier is a nice player and as long as he is cheap and controllable, the Celtics will keep him. Beyond that, I don't see him staying here past the next 2 controllable years I believe?
They'll pay Smart. It'll just come down to the dollars imo. Smart fits everything that Celtics are trying to build here and he has a clear role as the 6th guy coming off the bench.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 12, 2017 4:46:33 GMT -5
After watching last nights game I am wondering just how good Kyrie can be, is he the next Curry? I think we could end up with an annual MVP candidate.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 12, 2017 5:01:50 GMT -5
Should we maybe read into this starting line up? Maybe it will be some of the time based on injuries and match ups. Its a really good sign for the C's if it is, says a lot about how ready they feel Tatum is right out of the gate. But dont forget Morris has only been in camp a few days and Baynes is out. Beginning to think Tatum might contribute more than most of us thought he would this year. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 12, 2017 6:51:19 GMT -5
Should we maybe read into this starting line up? Maybe it will be some of the time based on injuries and match ups. Its a really good sign for the C's if it is, says a lot about how ready they feel Tatum is right out of the gate. But dont forget Morris has only been in camp a few days and Baynes is out. Beginning to think Tatum might contribute more than most of us thought he would this year. I see a lot of benefit to starting Tatum and putting more experience in the second unit. That being said, starters really don't matter that much; it's who finishes and the second unit, as a group, only matters in the late first early second the majority of the time. After that, it's a lot of mixing. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 12, 2017 6:59:08 GMT -5
Jaylen Browns defense looks like it is ready to take a big leap this year. Actually, his entire game does, but what he did with Kemba Walker last night was highly encouraging.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 12, 2017 8:21:36 GMT -5
Brown looks much better all the way around as does Smart and Tatum looks good already. I am getting excited and maybe I should pull back but its hard after a game in which they shoot 50% from 3 and the starters are all over 20+ at the half. It certainly looks like they are going to be very good and have a lot of depth talent. Interested in seeing how Morris gets into game shape and fits in, also need to get Baynes back healthy to add some beef.
They move the ball really well and can shoot the 3 much better than last year. There are going to be a lot of open looks. Scoring will not be a problem without Kyrie on the floor like it was with IT on the bench. Defense should be good, only question is rebounding. They are much longer this year so maybe that will be the difference, only time will tell.
A 60 win season would not surprise me. Tough stretch to start the season will be a good test. Then given how long they have been together and the youth there is a lot of growing to do as a team. We won't have to wait long to see how good they are already but the potential is intriguing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 13:05:06 GMT -5
For starters I only posted my feeling about Rozier, a young player I'm very excited about. Everyone wants to turn this into a Rozier vs. Smart debate, which was never what I wanted.
Rozier per 36 minutes- 11.7 points, .3 blocks, 1.3 steals, 3.7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 TOs, while shooting .367 and .318
Smart per 36 minutes- 12.5 points, .5 blocks, 1.9 steals, 5.5 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2.4 TOs, while shooting. 359 and .283
Smart played more minutes his rookie year than Rozier has played his first two years. Smart came to a team with Bradley, Rondo, and not much else for guard depth. He got almost 30 minutes a night. Rondo was traded and we got Thomas. Rozier came into a team that had Thomas, Bradley and Smart. He still forced his way into 17 minutes a game and playoff minutes based off his improved play in his second year.
Smart has been the better player to date. He was a rare player that was NBA ready from day one. At the same time if you look at his per 36 minute totals for his first 3 years, they are almost the same. That's not my opinion, that's a fact. Rozier given playing time made a big leap from year one to year two. To the point were he is already shooting better than Smart. Basketball Refrence projections for next year have Rozier at .377 and .324 and Smart at .371 and .292. So I'm not the only one that likes Roziers shot over Smarts.
When it comes to upside it's crystal clear Rozier is a notch above Smart. He is a freak athlete. It's that simple. Now that doesn't mean he will reach his upside, but it's clearly higher. Yes both Smart and Rozier need to work on finishing at the basket. One major difference is that Rozier can get easy shots and Smart can't. Rozier was missing layups in playoffs, something that can easily be fixed. Smart didn't even try to make his shots most times, just draw contact, throw his arms up and hope for a foul. In College that worked, it hasn't in the Pros. Maybe him losing 20 pounds helps, but he will never be Rozier going to the basket. Let's be frank that's why he shots so many 3s.
Rozier is already a good defender, he does have all the tools you would want and could become even better. He can wreak havoc just like Smart. He'll never guard 3 positions like Smart, but he is quicker than Smart. Smart is currently better, but let's not sell Rozier short. His D and athlectic ability are the main reason Danny drafted him. Smart and Rozier defensively is going to be a nightmare for teams this year.
So I don't think I'm overrating Rozier and Underrating Smart. Smart has been and is currently the better player. Rozier has a lot of upside though. Not saying Smart has no upside, but Rozier has more. Maybe he never reaches it, but it is there. Opportunity is huge in Basketball, just look at Crowder and Thomas. Going to the right team with a chance to play changed their careers. Crowder became a good starter and Thomas went from a 6th man type to MVP type player. While on the Suns Thomas played behind Bledsoe, they were both the same age. Playing time and depth chart sure didn't predict who would become the better player. Just because one player is better at the same age doesn't mean they will be in the future. You have to love Roziers upside.
As to Smart here long-term, sure he's the safe bet. At the same time Danny didn't even try to sign him to an extension. That says something, Danny wants to see more from Smart. He didn't even try to get him to sign a team friendly deal. There is also no worrying about cap space next year.
In a bunch of ways Smart vs. Rozier is like Brown vs. Tatum. Tatum is the safer bet to be the better player, his skill level is crazy. At the same time Brown's athleticism gives him a higher upside. Who know's if he will ever reach it, but it's there. Same thing with Smart vs. Rozier, Rozier crazzy athleticism gives him the better upside. I'm not saying Rozier is the better player long-term, but he could be.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2017 14:29:16 GMT -5
Honest question: do you think the more athletic player always has the higher upside? I think there are certain skills where if a player is lacking when they enter the NBA, you can't reasonably project them to improve significantly in those areas, just like you can't reasonably project players to significantly improve their athleticism. Ballhandling and court vision fall into that category for me. Players can certainly improve on those fronts, but generally, those improvements are limited, and if a guy like Rozier hasn't shown advanced point guard skills by this point in his career, he's probably never going to develop them, and that lowers his ceiling for me.
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Post by texs31 on Oct 12, 2017 14:54:17 GMT -5
Not that those skills wouldn't be required at BOTH backcourt positions, but I don't think Rozier's path should be as a PG. I think he's got a better chance at becoming Avery Bradley (maybe a lazy example but there's familiarity, obviously) than at becoming a starting PG.
Of course, that will require a significant improvement in his shooting (but that puts him in a similar boat as Smart)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 15:53:43 GMT -5
I wouldn't say always, I'm sure you could come up with some examples were that's not the case. I would say the majority of the time yes. How far of a gap in athletic ability matters also. When you compare Brown and Rozier to Smart and Tatum there is a large gap. Your looking at great athletes compared to good athletes. That's not the same as comparing two athletes that are fairly close in athletic ability. It does come down to how likely they are to reach that potential.
I see Rozier as a combo guard. He's much more of a scorer than passer. At the same time he is a better passer than Bradley. I don't see a problem with his ball handling or court vision if he's playing more SG than PG. I see Smart as the backup PG and Rozier as the backup SG. If Rozier does ever reach a starter level type of play I think it's at SG not PG.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 12, 2017 15:54:26 GMT -5
IMO the game needs to slow down a little bit for Rozier just like Brown last year. The athleticism is there just like Brown he just needs to calm down and relax, maybe that is a confidence thing. But it is something that can definitely develop with time, I think he is going to have a good season and contribute a lot.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2017 16:24:06 GMT -5
I agree that Rozier's ceiling is an undersized SG, but that ceiling (let's call it Bradley with slightly better passing) just isn't all that impressive to me, especially since I don't think he can develop his ballhandling/passing chops to the level of, say, an Eric Bledsoe.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 17:10:01 GMT -5
Having a guy that on your bench that has let's say Bradley type upside isn't impressive to you? All because he can't become a Bledsoe type player? A mid first round pick having that type of upside is bad? All because he doesn't have the ball handling and passing to be a good starter at PG? Even though you agree he's more of a SG.
It's very impressive to me. That's the type of depth that can help win you a title.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2017 17:49:34 GMT -5
I didn't say any of that. Recall that I started this entire line of discussion by praising Rozier. He's a fine player and I'm glad he's on the roster. But I object to your characterization of him as a high-ceiling player, or, more precisely, as a player with a meaningfully higher ceiling than Smart. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 17:59:20 GMT -5
That's why your comment made no sense. Unless you think Smart can become Bledsoe. I don't get not being excited because he can't become a Bledsoe type player part at all.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2017 18:28:32 GMT -5
I think both Smart and Rozier have the ceilings of, say, an average (maybe above-average, but sub-All-Star) NBA starter. That's a very useful player! But I think both their ceilings are comparable and would characterize neither of them as high-ceiling players.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 12, 2017 19:17:46 GMT -5
I wasn't comparing the two players either I was just commenting on your analysis
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