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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 23, 2017 13:08:17 GMT -5
I haven't updated this for some of today's signings post round 10, but here's my spreadsheet. Maybe it will help. 2017 Sox draft.xlsx (22.03 KB) |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2017 13:12:30 GMT -5
Essentially, they used the 5% buffer and the college senior savings on Brannen and Scherff, so Netzer, Thompson, Schellenger, and Esplin will need to sign for a shade below slot, combined.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 23, 2017 15:04:44 GMT -5
Unless they know they can get Schelenger and Thompson at slot, they better have a deal with Netzer for under slot. He can hold this whole thing up. If refuses to sign for under slot they have nothing to offer Thompson and Schellenger other than slot money. Brannen just seems like an overpayment to me. They couldn't get him at $1.1 million? Even 1.2 mill? Really?
I'm not disappointed unless they don't sign the top 10 picks signed.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2017 15:10:24 GMT -5
Unless they know they can get Schelenger and Thompson at slot, they better have a deal with Netzer for under slot. He can hold this whole thing up. If refuses to sign for under slot they have nothing to offer Thompson and Schellenger other than slot money. Brannen just seems like an overpayment to me. They couldn't get him at $1.1 million? Even 1.2 mill? Really? I'm not disappointed unless they don't sign the top 10 picks signed. They pretty much have to have a deal with Netzer to finalize the Brannen deal, right? |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 23, 2017 15:37:21 GMT -5
Unless they know they can get Schelenger and Thompson at slot, they better have a deal with Netzer for under slot. He can hold this whole thing up. If refuses to sign for under slot they have nothing to offer Thompson and Schellenger other than slot money. Brannen just seems like an overpayment to me. They couldn't get him at $1.1 million? Even 1.2 mill? Really? I'm not disappointed unless they don't sign the top 10 picks signed. They pretty much have to have a deal with Netzer to finalize the Brannen deal, right? Yeah, then a lot of times u would think they have a good idea before the draft what a kid wants before they even draft him. Agree here what many have said that Brannen's amount to me is shocking. It puts to rest now hopes of say Perry and raises doubts on some top 10 kids even. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2017 15:57:34 GMT -5
They pretty much have to have a deal with Netzer to finalize the Brannen deal, right? Yeah, then a lot of times u would think they have a good idea before the draft what a kid wants before they even draft him. Agree here what many have said that Brannen's amount to me is shocking. It puts to rest now hopes of say Perry and raises doubts on some top 10 kids even. Agree that they're probably not doing over-slot after the 10th, but I'm not sure what top 10 draftee you think isn't going to sign. |
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Post by The Duck on Jun 23, 2017 16:33:44 GMT -5
I haven't updated this for some of today's signings post round 10, but here's my spreadsheet. Maybe it will help. View AttachmentThe spreadsheet shows Esplin as signed. Haven't seen that elsewhere. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 23, 2017 17:09:09 GMT -5
Yeah, then a lot of times u would think they have a good idea before the draft what a kid wants before they even draft him. Agree here what many have said that Brannen's amount to me is shocking. It puts to rest now hopes of say Perry and raises doubts on some top 10 kids even. Agree that they're probably not doing over-slot after the 10th, but I'm not sure what top 10 draftee you think isn't going to sign. Thompson is the one am having thoughts on now with so little cap room and Schellenger a bit also. Taking a 2016 draft to the 2017 with Anderson and Shawaryn? That's a considerable chunk of money needed for what looks like 2 kids with better heaters and equal upside. Are the rest of the top 10 picks on hold waiting to see how much of a discount both Netzer and Esplin will take? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2017 17:26:01 GMT -5
Schellenger has signed already. We just don't know the bonus yet.
The club knows what it's going to take to sign these guys when they're selected. They'll all signed unless something happens that changes the situation for whatever reason. Last year 2 picks from the top 10 rounds didn't sign - Nick LoDolo turned down $1.75M as a supplemental first round pick and the other was a 7th-rounder. In 2015, 5 didn't sign - Kyle Funkhouser gambled (and lost) that he'd improve his draft stock coming back and having a healthy spring at Louisville, among that number.
Among those unsigned, we don't know much with Netzer, Thompson is still pitching in the CWS, and Esplin has actually said he'd definitely sign with whoever drafted him. I don't think there's reason to be concerned.
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Post by ryan24 on Jun 23, 2017 17:41:47 GMT -5
Plan right now is to do a July 1 update as usual and our typical update after the signing deadline, yes. Speaking only for me: - Scherff is nowhere near Groome. - Houck >> Anderson & Shawaryn >>>> Thompson Thanks for your insight. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 23, 2017 18:22:10 GMT -5
Forgot to add Chris would be sweet if everything broke lucky with regards to Netzer and Esplin bonus amounts, then somehow they could get a Perry "type" signed in a surprise deal, much like Kyri Washington signed for nearly nothing a couple of years back out of the blue.
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Post by usdballum on Jun 23, 2017 19:24:02 GMT -5
Per Callis: 7th-rder Tyler Esplin signs w/ redsox for $250k (pick 221=$180,700). Florida HS OF, impressive prep bat, arm strength too. |
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Post by ramireja on Jun 23, 2017 19:41:51 GMT -5
Welp, okay now we to save about 90k between Netzer, Thompson, and Schellenger. At this point, have to think it will come mostly from Netzer.
.....and we gain ~55k from the Schellenger signing. 35k needed from Netzer and Thompson signings.
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Post by SALNotes on Jun 23, 2017 20:07:12 GMT -5
They seem to be in pretty good shape, Netzer will likely come at some savings
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 23, 2017 20:10:15 GMT -5
Per Callis: 7th-rder Tyler Esplin signs w/ redsox for $250k (pick 221=$180,700). Florida HS OF, impressive prep bat, arm strength too. WTF? Really? He's on nobody's top 500 lists. Look I'm fine if they get all the top 10 signed. Bur going overslot for some guys seems odd, it makes you wonder about getting others at slot. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2017 20:10:23 GMT -5
I think Netzer will sign for 300-350k.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 23, 2017 20:16:25 GMT -5
So apparently Sox know what they can do.
Surprised by this, just as I am by the Esplin and Brannen signings
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2017 20:34:10 GMT -5
Per Callis: 7th-rder Tyler Esplin signs w/ redsox for $250k (pick 221=$180,700). Florida HS OF, impressive prep bat, arm strength too. WTF? Really? He's on nobody's top 500 lists. Look I'm fine if they get all the top 10 signed. Bur going overslot for some guys seems odd, it makes you wonder about getting others at slot. Josh Ockimey wasn't on a top 500 list either. Neither was Mookie Betts. Honestly, after 150 or so, there's so much variance that the lists are borderline useless. This is paraphrased from the BA draft podcast. For everyone's reference, the draft history page is now updated. www.soxprospects.com/dh.htm |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 23, 2017 20:43:47 GMT -5
Yup. Well aware Chris. I was thinking about Ockimey when I wrote that.
Still, just seems like they're cutting it close. But then surprised by Schellinger signing under slot. It's just all over the place.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 23, 2017 21:23:58 GMT -5
Trust the process........I guess.
I'm actually pretty excited about Esplin. I get that he wasn't on top 500 lists, but as mentioned, thats not a huge deal. He was the best hitter at IMG academy (a baseball haven) this past year, has a big frame, solid arm, and even runs pretty well for someone his size. He could surprise.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 23, 2017 21:27:14 GMT -5
FO must have really liked what they saw in Esplin then to give him that much. Figure will get a 1st hand look at him next month when go down to Ft Myers and see what he looks like.
Everyone remembers Trent Kemp also. A shocker who got 250k cpl years back. Watching the MiLB games doesn't do justice with how this kid looks up close in person. am sure a few of you have seen him. this kid is a well built physical speciment, not some monster, but an athlete all the way around and have a feeling that played a factor into why the Sox gave him that overslot deal. Did that play a part into Esplin as well some? Dunno.. Am looking forward to seeing him and the other new kids tho soon.
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 23, 2017 21:50:56 GMT -5
David DurdenExtensive background story if you follow the link
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Post by ryan24 on Jun 24, 2017 7:53:14 GMT -5
Schellenger has signed already. We just don't know the bonus yet. The club knows what it's going to take to sign these guys when they're selected. They'll all signed unless something happens that changes the situation for whatever reason. Last year 2 picks from the top 10 rounds didn't sign - Nick LoDolo turned down $1.75M as a supplemental first round pick and the other was a 7th-rounder. In 2015, 5 didn't sign - Kyle Funkhouser gambled (and lost) that he'd improve his draft stock coming back and having a healthy spring at Louisville, among that number. Among those unsigned, we don't know much with Netzer, Thompson is still pitching in the CWS, and Esplin has actually said he'd definitely sign with whoever drafted him. I don't think there's reason to be concerned. I would think that the sox have an agreement with Thompson but can not announce anything yet because he is still playing. Netzer could be last man standing and have to settle for what's left or not sign. I agree with Chris. I can not imagine that the sox would have given brannen all that money if they thought it would affect their not being able to sign the others. |
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Post by jchang on Jun 24, 2017 8:40:56 GMT -5
It is not a matter of last man gets what's left. Right now with 8 of the rounds 1-10 picks listed as signed, we are at $5,054,500, while slot + 5% for these picks is $4,973,325.
So if we do not signed one or both of the two remaining for a combined $81,175 below (or equal to) slot + 5%, then kiss next years #1 goodbye. So technically it is Netzer who has leverage to ask for the full amount (slot+5% minus 81,175).
Heck, he might even negotiate something non-monetary (is this allowed?) like not having carry his own bags?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 24, 2017 8:58:34 GMT -5
It looks like the remaining 900k will be split up in some way between Thompson and Netzer. Perhaps Netzer comes in below slot but I could see Thompson going a little over.
In other words, this draft was pretty much all about the top ten. Which is fine as this draft seemed to have returned a strong group of draft picks in the top ten for the Sox.
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