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Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by rangoon82 on Mar 13, 2013 19:51:40 GMT -5
Between Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola, Brady's targets are kinda made of glass. More so if they resign Edelman. A little unsettling.
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Post by jmei on Mar 13, 2013 20:00:46 GMT -5
Past injury history is not necessarily predictive of future injury history, especially if we're talking about semi-freakish traumatic injuries like a broken forearm or a dislocated clavicle (or even a high ankle sprain). I'd be far more worried if those three had suffered recurring soft tissue injuries (ex: Vollmer's back, Eugene Wilson's hamstring).
That said, Welker's consistency was one of his calling cards, and his potential replacements present significantly more risk in that department. It wouldn't be the first time Belichick and Co. were willing to take these sorts of risks, though, and they've been right often enough that I'm willing to temper my immediate negative reaction a bit.
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Post by marrcus on Mar 13, 2013 20:04:29 GMT -5
Since the money is close you have to feel there's something personal between Bill / Wes. This doesn't seem like good business and obviously it isn't good for the team.
Gonzo and Hern'z are big talents but also big targets. I don't think there's a chance either plays a whole season
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 13, 2013 20:37:55 GMT -5
Still hoping for Tavon Austin. He would be an awesome weapon for Brady.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 14, 2013 7:43:46 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the fan base is going to spend the next two years comparing Welker and Amendola when, really, that's not the point. Just like the point wasn't Welker vs Edelman last year. BB looks at the whole package so the value of this decision depends on what he does with the rest of the offseason.
One thing I can't wait to stop hearing is this whole "we lost him over JUST 1 million/year" argument. I think we just saw how important 1 million/year can be to a free agent. Under the circumstances (the Pats needs), I'd be more disappointed to know we lost out on a top CB, additional pass rusher, top X-WR, RT, etc than I'm that we lost Welker over it. Every million counts when trying to build a team. If BB didn't want to go there with Welker, I'd hope the thought is that he wants to use that extra money for something(one) else.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 14, 2013 12:11:00 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the fan base is going to spend the next two years comparing Welker and Amendola when, really, that's not the point. Just like the point wasn't Welker vs Edelman last year. BB looks at the whole package so the value of this decision depends on what he does with the rest of the offseason. One thing I can't wait to stop hearing is this whole "we lost him over JUST 1 million/year" argument. I think we just saw how important 1 million/year can be to a free agent. Under the circumstances (the Pats needs), I'd be more disappointed to know we lost out on a top CB, additional pass rusher, top X-WR, RT, etc than I'm that we lost Welker over it. Every million counts when trying to build a team. If BB didn't want to go there with Welker, I'd hope the thought is that he wants to use that extra money for something(one) else. The other reason why the $2m argument is misleading is if Amendola works out, the Patriots have the option of keeping him on a cost effective deal for five seasons. They would've had Welker for only two, and after that he'd be pushing the age where slot receivers fall off in a big way. I expect (if healthy) Amendola to completely replace Welker, assuming they don't radically change the offense and the targets the slot guys receives. People have become obsessed with catch totals as the end all measurement of production for some reason, so many media outlets have called Welker "the NFL's most productive receiver". It's the equivalent of calling Derek Jeter baseball's most productive hitter because he led the league in hits. Amendola has caught a higher percentage of his targets than Welker over their careers. Of course Welker leads the league in catches, the Patriots play at a crazy pace and lead the league in offensive plays while utilizing a pass heavy attack. The durability questions around Amendola are the only negative for me, but isn't Welker high risk to start a serious decline soon? I keep hearing about Welker's dependability and durability, but at a certain point all that previous durability works against him...he has a lot of NFL mileage on his body and that doesn't bode well for his health and performance moving forward. I like the idea of re-signing Edleman as depth/injury insurance. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 14, 2013 12:27:16 GMT -5
Greg Bedard has an interesting post on the Pats Blog on Boston.com. It targets the misconception (at least, in his mind), that Amendola is nothing more than a poor (and injured) mans version of Welker. Talks about better athleticsm, longer arms, etc. and why that's important for the evolution of the offense.
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Post by rangoon82 on Mar 14, 2013 15:48:58 GMT -5
Now checking in as an eligible receiver for the patriots. Nah, I guess Im on board with this move as much as it hurts to see Welker go. I buy into slot receivers benefiting from the system. Its just gonna be really hard to swallow if Amendola goes down while Welker and Manning are crushing it in Denver. I'm assuming Amendola's contract means less of a cap hit this year relative to what Welker's contract would have been. Lets hope the Pats take all this cap room and load up on defense. I think the O as rpesently constituted is still pretty good, but defense wins championships.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 14, 2013 15:54:02 GMT -5
Even THAT I'm okay with as long as they have enough offense to win (with or without DA) and add to their D significantly.
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Post by rangoon82 on Mar 14, 2013 21:38:45 GMT -5
Word on the street is the Pats signed John Abraham.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 9:15:33 GMT -5
He's coming to Foxboro for a visit today but so is Dwight Freeney (and Adrian Wilson but he, obviously, does not play the same position).
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 12:40:43 GMT -5
Busy day today. In addition to visits with Freeney, Abraham and A Wilson, Pats also signed Donald Jones (WR from Buf), Kyle Arrington (as long as he's destined for the slot, I'm okay) and hosting Emmanuel Sanders. Also, not writing off Lloyd as they are trying to restructure deal.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 14:04:46 GMT -5
2 other developments today: Danny Woodhead to the Chargers for 2 years and Amendola's contract is actually 5/27.5M (actually, as Greg Bedard is tweeting, it's essentially a 2/11 with a chance to reassess after)
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Post by ray88h66 on Mar 15, 2013 14:18:27 GMT -5
Hate to see two of my favorite players gone. I enjoyed watching Welker and Woodhead. Good football moves or not, I'm less interested in next year's team.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 15:22:15 GMT -5
Oops!
According to John Clayton (among others) the Denver Broncos were forced to cut Elvis Dumervil despite the fact that they got him to agree to a restructured (pay cut) contract. The problem is that when they signed Welker, they went over and there was a deadline for getting back under. They failed to submit Dumervil's new terms before that deadline so . . .
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 15, 2013 16:18:13 GMT -5
Could he be a fit with the Patriots? I don't know much about football but I know teams have different systems. Could he fit with the Patriots?
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2013 16:25:21 GMT -5
Dumervil struggles setting the edge against the run but is still an excellent pass rusher and would likely excel in a 3rd down, Mark Anderson-type pass rush specialist role. He's a pretty great speed rusher and is a good bit younger (29) than the Abraham/Freeney.
The problem is that someone is going to want to sign him to a $6m+ multi-year deal (the Broncos were willing to pay him $8m, for instance), and it's tough to see the Patriots outbidding a bunch of other teams, especially considering their huge hole at CB and smaller holes at WR (if Lloyd is cut) and RT (if Vollmer doesn't re-sign).
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 16:26:42 GMT -5
Not sure. Situationally, I suppose. It has been mentioned that, out of Abraham and Freeney, Abraham would be the prime target due to his size. Well Elvis is smaller than Freeney so take what you will from that.
It should also be noted that this may end up just being a temporary thing as Dumervil may not find a deal better than the restructered one so he may be, ultimately, back in Denver.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 15, 2013 16:34:40 GMT -5
Ok thats what I guessed. Still need to shore up other fronts to commit so much on one guy. I really hope they get Talib done.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 16:48:09 GMT -5
Me too. Would love Vollmer too (Consistency across the line) but his injury vs his likely demands may be an issue. I also like the idea of A Wilson. Not sold on T Wilson yet (as a starter) and despite all this talk of not having a traditinoal FS vs SS, they need a hitter at one S and Gregory isn't the guy IMO.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 15, 2013 16:53:48 GMT -5
Current roster (66+2, limit is 90). Age in parentheses.
QB (3): Tom Brady (35), Ryan Mallett (24), Mike Kafka (25)
RB/FB (7): Stevan Ridley (24), Shane Vereen (24), Brandon Bolden (23), Leon Washington (30), Jeff Demps (23), James Develin (24), Tony Fiammetta (26)
WR (7): Danny Amendola (27), Donald Jones (25), Michael Jenkins (30), Matthew Slater (27), Kamar Aiken (23), Jeremy Ebert (23), Andre Holmes (24)
TE (5): Rob Gronkowski (23), Aaron Hernandez (23), Jake Ballard (25), Daniel Fells (29), Brad Herman (23)
T (5): Nate Solder (24), Sebastian Vollmer (28), Will Svitek (31), Markus Zusevics (23)
G/C (4): Logan Mankins (31), Dan Connolly (30), Ryan Wendell (27), Marcus Cannon (24), Nick McDonald (25)
DL (7): Vince Wilfork (30), Kyle Love (26), Brandon Deaderick (25), Myron Pryor (26), Armond Armstead (22), Marcus Forston (23), Tracy Robertson (23)
DE/OLB (7): Rob Ninkovich (29), Chandler Jones (23), Jermaine Cunningham (24), Jake Bequette (23), Justin Francis (24), Marcus Benard (27), Jason Vega (25)
LB (7): Jerod Mayo (27), Dont'a Hightower (23), Brandon Spikes (25), Dane Fletcher (26), Jeff Tarpinian (25), Mike Rivera (27), Niko Koutouvides (31)
CB (6): Aqib Talib (27), Alfonzo Dennard (23), Kyle Arrington (25), Ras-I Dowling (24), Marquice Cole (29), Malcolm Williams (25)
S (5): Devin McCourty (25), Adrian Wilson (33), Steve Gregory (30), Tavon Wilson (22), Nate Ebner (23)
ST (3): Stephen Gostkowski (29) (K), Zoltan Mesko (27) (P), Danny Aiken (24) (LS)
Exempt/military: Shun White (27)
Restricted FA: Michael Hoomanawanui (24)
Draft picks (5)
1st round, 29
2nd round, 27
3rd round, 29
7th round, 20
7th round, 29
Unrestricted FA: Josh Barrett (28), Deion Branch (33), Julian Edelman (26), Derrick Martin (27), Jamey Richard (28), Trevor Scott (28), Donte Stallworth (32), Tracy White (31)
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2013 16:55:19 GMT -5
Another CB comes off the board as Antoine Cason was signed by Arizona for 1 year. I think it's a good sign that DRC and Cason signed for 1 year and Chris Houston and Keenan Lewis got $5M per. I would think this suggests that a combination of a short deal (especially now that money is starting to dry up) and reasonable money should get them a starting CB.
From ESPN's FA ratings, here are the CBs that are still available (and graded as, at least, an average starter):
Brent Grimes 79
DeAngelo Hall 79
Quentin Jammer 79
Antoine Winfield 79
Nnamdi Asomugha 78
Aqib Talib 77
Sheldon Brown 76
Terence Newman 75
Nate Clements 73
Tracy Porter 73
Shawntae Spencer 71
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2013 17:21:13 GMT -5
I was not that impressed by Talib's play on the field. Yeah, he's got a solid size/speed combo and is pretty good at press coverage (and was surprisingly good in run support), but he bites on double moves, doesn't have elite quickness or change of direction skills, and has concentration lapses in the type of soft zone coverages that the Patriots have favored in recent years (see Colts game, for instance). He's young (27) but his past personal issues and injury history (past hamstring and hip issues) make a long-term deal risky. He's still one of the better options available, but I'm only signing him if he takes a deal where he isn't guaranteed a lot of money upfront and will have to earn it every year (ex: annual roster bonuses).
I'd much rather have Grimes on a one-year deal, knowing that you can franchise him after the season if he performs well coming off knee surgery. The Hall/Jammer/Winfield grab-bag of veterans probably has some potential, but depending on one of those guys to emerge as your #1 CB is risky and I'd prefer Talib or Grimes.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 16, 2013 11:15:40 GMT -5
Talib signs a one year deal for $5mm to stay with New England.
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Post by rangoon82 on Mar 16, 2013 12:54:29 GMT -5
Awesome. If they get Vollmer back I think the Pats could be pretty similar to the team they were last year. They upgraded some key areas with Washington and Wilson, but its unclear if Amendola can equal Welker's production. Woodhead was a key contributor too IMO. Also so many key players have a history of injury issues IMO so the roster's kinda a house of cards a little bit. The Pats should still have some cap room after allotting some for the draft and assuming they bring back Vollmer. Hopefully they sign another impact FA.
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