Patriots Offseason Thread

I know what you mean, but check out the Pats' defensive numbers when Talib played last season versus when he didn't. They're insane and way too big of a discrepancy to be a coincidence.

What makes Talib valuable to the Pats, though, is what his presence on the field does for the rest of the defense. By having a guy that can single-cover receivers like Andre Johnson, Dennard drops to the #2 spot, Arrington only defends against the slot and McCourty can play exclusively safety. Having Talib (or a legitimate #1 corner) makes everyone fall into place for the defense.

Being a #1 corner is not the same thing as being a top-tier guy.

Maybe I'm overrating Talib because the Pats have had nothing but steamy piles of garbage at corner for years now, but I feel pretty comfortable letting him handle top receivers one-on-one. No, I don't expect him to shut them down entirely, but he can at least contain the likes of Johnson, Cruz, etc.

Talib is not an irreplaceable player by any means - but having a player LIKE Talib makes everyone else on the Pats defense fall into place.

Marquise Cole re-signed. Good special teamer. Hope he doesn't have to line up on D much this year. Also, Niko is announced.

Both per Bedard twitter

Patriots resign Vollmer on four-year deal. Great move provides nice stability on line for next couple years at least.

itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2013/03/24/reports-patriots-re-sign-sebastian-vollmer-to-four-year-deal/

Revisiting Bedard's Offseason To-Do List (I'm putting them in his order but the priority of each could certainly be argued):

1. Starting Z WR - Danny Amendola - there is certainly an argument that Welker should still be here but I'd already re-signed myself to him being gone so I'm okay here. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy.

2. Starting LCB - Aqib Talib - as others have suggested, on a one-year deal, I'm good with this. Haven't resolved in the long term but that could come with the draft (I guess there is an outside shot that Dowling's the guy but I seriously doubt it)

3. Starting X WR - OPEN - Technically this wasn't a need when Bedard posted the list but most knew Lloyd would be cut. Now he and Sanders (RFA - 3rd Rd) are the veteran candidates. The draft is another possibility here (though I wonder if BB would want a rookie penned in as a starter from Day 1 here)

4. Slot CB - Kyle Arrington - Thought he was a goner. I'm lukewarm on him being back. Good character guy; Hard worker. I just probably would've preferred someone who had more success on the outside in case of injuries (though I suppose we can hope for a return to his previous year's production)

5. Backup X WR - Donald Jones - As a backup on a 1 year deal, why not? If he's their planned starter, I'm not as much of a fan. As discussed in the original article, it could be that Hernandez gets used as the starting X with Ballard or Hooman lining up as the Flex TE

6. Rush DT - OPEN - Armond Armstead was the "big signing" and I'm excited to see what he can bring. I also wonder if Francis could put on some weight/muscle and be the guy. Cunningham was used here as well but I'd love to see a guy who could line up next to Big Vince full time as well. The draft is supposedly deep in DT's so . . .

7. Backup Z WR - OPEN - Edelman is the obvious candidate here. That being said, one of the reported reasons for the turnover at the WR spot is that they are trying to bring in players that are flexible enough to be in or out.

8. Rush DE - OPEN - Many predict the game of DE Musical Chairs will finish with Abraham here in New England. The longer this goes on (and more teams enter the mix) the less sure I am. Freeney and Idonije are other FA candidates and there is always the draft

9. RT Competition - Sebastian Vollmer - This combined with the filling of need 13 may have also taken care of need 11 as well (see below). If he's healthy, this is genius given the reported #s. Consistency among the starters and flexibility in case of injury. Gotta be pleased . . . unless he's hurt.

10. Safety - Adrian Wilson - I like this signing given his leadership and "in the box" skills. Nobody should confuse this signing with the Rodney Harrison one from an on-field standpoint. But he's a good backup/mentor to Tavon Wilson and should get plenty of situational snaps

11. RG competition - Now that Vollmer is at RT and Svitek (see need 13) is the swing guy, Marcus Cannon is freed up to compete at RG. Everyone, except those who take BB's word as gospel, believes this is his best spot anyway. This, in turn, could open up a competition at C between Wendell and Connolly. Anyway, the 2 starting spots will likely be filled by one of the three. McDonald could end up on the roster bubble.

12. 4th CB - Marquice Cole/OPEN - I actually like what Cole provided on special teams and he gave it all when forced into defensive snaps. As we saw on AFCC, that wasn't good enough. But he's another good character, hard worker that excels on ST. I still think another guy could be drafted here and Cole/Dowling/Draftee and all compete for this spot (hopefully, the Dennard issue gets cleared up and we don't have to shuffle so this player gets pushed into serious snaps)

13. Swing T - Will Svitek - already discussed

14. Backup Flex TE - Michael Hoomanawanui?/Ballard - Few expected Hooman back but given the tender, he's likely the candidate in training camp. Ballard and Herman will also be in the mix depending on what happens at the starting X and Flex spots. Still, nobody should be suprised if another TE is brought in.


In summary, I like what they've done. They didn't have to break the bank on anyone and yet most of their needs are filled (heading into the draft with vacancies at the spots where the draft is deepest). I'm sure will see some additional FAs brought in (some will fill those needs furthering the flexibility head into the selection day).

Updated roster:

Current roster (68+2, limit is 90). Age in parentheses.

QB (3): Tom Brady (35), Ryan Mallett (24), Mike Kafka (25)

RB/FB (7): Stevan Ridley (24), Shane Vereen (24), Brandon Bolden (23), Leon Washington (30), Jeff Demps (23), James Develin (24), Tony Fiammetta (26)

WR (8): Danny Amendola (27), Julian Edelman (26), Donald Jones (25), Michael Jenkins (30), Matthew Slater (27), Kamar Aiken (23), Jeremy Ebert (23), Andre Holmes (24)

TE (5): Rob Gronkowski (23), Aaron Hernandez (23), Jake Ballard (25), Daniel Fells (29), Brad Herman (23)

T (5): Nate Solder (24), Sebastian Vollmer (28), Will Svitek (31), Markus Zusevics (23)

G/C (4): Logan Mankins (31), Dan Connolly (30), Ryan Wendell (27), Marcus Cannon (24), Nick McDonald (25)

DL (8): Vince Wilfork (30), Tommy Kelly (32), Kyle Love (26), Brandon Deaderick (25), Myron Pryor (26), Armond Armstead (22), Marcus Forston (23), Tracy Robertson (23)

DE/OLB (7): Rob Ninkovich (29), Chandler Jones (23), Jermaine Cunningham (24), Jake Bequette (23), Justin Francis (24), Marcus Benard (27), Jason Vega (25)

LB (7): Jerod Mayo (27), Dont'a Hightower (23), Brandon Spikes (25), Dane Fletcher (26), Jeff Tarpinian (25), Mike Rivera (27), Niko Koutouvides (31)

CB (6): Aqib Talib (27), Alfonzo Dennard (23), Kyle Arrington (25), Ras-I Dowling (24), Marquice Cole (29), Malcolm Williams (25)

S (5): Devin McCourty (25), Adrian Wilson (33), Steve Gregory (30), Tavon Wilson (22), Nate Ebner (23)

ST (3): Stephen Gostkowski (29) (K), Zoltan Mesko (27) (P), Danny Aiken (24) (LS)

Exempt/military: Shun White (27)
Restricted FA: Michael Hoomanawanui (24)

Draft picks (5)
1st round, 29
2nd round, 27
3rd round, 29
7th round, 20
7th round, 29

Unrestricted FA: Josh Barrett (28), Deion Branch (33), Derrick Martin (27), Jamey Richard (28), Trevor Scott (28), Donte Stallworth (32), Tracy White (31)

McShay just did an updated 2-Rd mock where he has Marshall's Aaron Dobson (WR) going to the Pats in the 2nd round. I looked at his scouting report on ESPN and, with the caveat that I've never seen him play and going soley on that report, he could be someone that is very interesting. Big with speed and ball skills (okay AND he's from Marshall . . . but that's just a coincidence).

Anyone know more about him?

Worse is that ive seen Robert Woods mocked to them a lot. Betting they don't even make a 1st rounder but your point still rings true.

Secondary is certainly a possibility but I could also see DLine early.

On that topic, I wonder if they are trying to bulk up Francis to play inside on a more regular basis. He played there in the sub after Cunninghams suspension and he was listed at 6'4" 270. I'm not an expert in training but I would think he could get bigger without losing effectiveness. He and Armstead could compete for snaps next too Wilfork.

I also wonder if a SLB could be an option early. I love Spikes but there is a small part of my brain that sees a 2 down player who has already let the team down with a suspension and is a free agent soon. Hightower was originally an MLB. Wacky theory with little basis I grant you but . . .

Margus Hunt's athletic skills could diminish before he ever comes close to reaching his potential. I don't think a raw 26 year old (how old he'll be before the season starts) who struggles with technique and leverage is worth a first round pick. If he was 22 or 23, that might be a different story. Jason Pierre-Paul putting it together as quickly as he did has skewed people's perception of the developmental curve for an athletic pass rushing DE prospect. (People forget about JPP's insane 81 inch wingspan creating mismatches off the line. He was a freak that created leverage issues for opposing OTs from the start, he didn't have any leverage issues himself.) There's a reason you don't typically see guys on the DL with Hunt's height; he may end up getting pushed around by OTs. I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of pro he develops into. The bust potential is high for Hunt as a DE. It's a risky pick.

I'm a big fan of Xavier Rhodes. I love the bigger corners with the physicality for press coverage and the speed to run with the vertical threats with the length to blanket a receiver in the short-to-intermediate passing game. You're right about the Patriots utilizing a lot of zone coverage but I think that's mostly because they lacked the talent at corner (before Talib) to press at the line. Rhodes is in the Talib/Sean Smith mold as potential difference making corner. I'd be surprised if he made it past the Bucs or Dolphins in the 1st round (to replace either player just mentioned). If the Patriots are looking for a raw CB with a similar skill set to develop for a year behind Talib, Robert Alford could be there for them in the 2nd round. (Crohn's disease and the mental aspect of his game should knock Alford down enough to offset his measurables.) Jamar Taylor (Boise State) is another CB in that mold I like but I don't think he'll be around at 59 because of his scheme versatility to play off the line and play press coverage.

Patterson has the most upside of any WR in this draft class. He's got a bit of a reputation as a bonehead but his physical skill set is the closest to a true difference making #1 WR like AJ Green of anyone in this class. (The Dez Bryant comparisons scare me, more for off-the-field reasons than on the field.) He's a top 15 pick at worst who is likely to go in the top 10.

Patton could be a value depending on where he goes. (I've seen everywhere from the back end of the 1st round to the 3rd round in mocks for him.) He's got a high floor.

If you're looking for a sleeper at WR, I'm high on Corey Fuller's upside. He's got the size, speed, athleticism, and short-area quickness you want to cause problems for opposing defenses. He was a track star at Kansas (who made him give up football) that transferred to Virginia Tech so he could play football too. He was a QB in high school and is still a bit on the raw side as a WR. I've got my fingers crossed hoping for him late in the 3rd round. He may not be the guy to come in and make an impact on offense right away but he's the type of receiver that's likely to be a better utilized as a pro than he was in college and at the very least can be an impact KR/PR.

Hadn't seen much of Alford but I just looked at his Senior Bowl tape and a few scouting reports. He'd be great in the late second if the mental stuff checks out.

I love Jamar Taylor too, and while he won't be there at 59, I'd take him anywhere in the second round. He's a great speed/strength combo (strength lets him play press-man, great closing speed for zone), fluid hips, and solid in run support and as a blitzer. He'll have trouble with the bigger and stronger receivers out there given his small frame, but at the very least he'll be a great slot corner if he improves his tackling technique even a little bit.

You make solid points on Patterson but his physicality is on a different level. His route running issues fall under the bonehead category and that same knock was used against AJ Green and Dez Bryant before their respective drafts. That's something that's smoothed out by a good position coach and veteran leadership. That's not something that can't be overcome. Tennessee gave him the ball on the jet sweeps and screens because they knew he was their best offense weapon and wanted to get the ball in his hands more. That's not a result of him having a limited skill set, he's just that much of a beast after the catch.

The end of the 3rd round could be early for Fuller since this is a deep WR class. That's the toughest part to project this early when teams want to keep under-the-radar players under-the-radar. The Patriots don't have a 4th round pick and I don't think he has a chance of being around in the 5th. He was underutilized at Virginia Tech and didn't really get an opportunity until injuries cleared the way his senior year. You're right about where he did his damage but that's a result of the usage of the players around him, not an indictment of his ability. He's a much better pro prospect than his teammate Marcus Davis who was featured as the flanker in that offense. (Fuller played on coverage teams his junior year and was a backup WR. Senior year he finally got an opportunity on offense.) I think it's a fair assumption that teams that are working him out before the draft are giving him a look on special teams too, especially given his track background. Fuller is going to be drafted based on upside. His measurables compare favorably to Randall Cobb and Mike Wallace (when they were drafted) and he has the size to lineup outside. (Note: I'm not trying to compare him to Cobb or Wallace but he has that level of playmaking ability to dream on, especially if you get him in open space. All it takes is one infatuated coach or GM to reach for that upside.) I can't see Fuller being available late in the 5th or 6th round, especially in a year when Tavon Austin, an under-sized receiver reliant on being put in open space to make use of his difference making speed, is being projected as a top 15 pick.

I don't disagree with anything you said there. While it's easy to point a finger at the Patriots for failing to develop Price/Tate/Jackson, it's fair to say no other team has swooped in and developed any of them into anything better than an in-season street free agent either. That might be more of a knock on their evaluation of college WRs than their ability to develop them.