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Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2013 15:31:41 GMT -5
Two receivers to keep an eye on for the later rounds-- Josh Boyce and Chris Harper. Both have the quickness that the Patriots like (Boyce had the second-highest WR three-cone at 6.68, Harper was ninth at 6.89) as well as excellent wonderlic scores (Harper 33, Boyce 23) if, as Greg Bedard speculates, the Patriots are prioritizing a player smart enough to fit into the offense as a rookie. Boyce has a 5th round projected and Harper is a 3rd/4th round guy. They both had subpar quarterback play in college, plus Boyce's tape doesn't match his excellent combine results and there just isn't a lot of tape on Harper running a full route tree, but they both have good upside and should be there on Day 3.
Sidenote: Robert Woods had the second-worst three-cone time of player who ran during the combine. The Patriots love wide receivers with the quickness to gain separation at the stem of a route, and most of the WRs they've drafted have great three-cone times. Something to think about, especially given how much I've seen his name bandied around lately.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 18:08:47 GMT -5
Soooo a few hours before the Patriots trade down.
I'm thinking of Markus Wheaton I think he is a fit and seems to have a great attitude. He may lack a bit of size but he runs good routes and had a good cone drill if I read that stuff correctly.
Another guy is Keenan Allen. Physically to me he looks like a Brandon Marshall/Anquan Boldin type and had enough red flags to maybe drop a bit in the draft probably to the 2nd round. He is tough and fights for extra yards something that Brandon Lloyd could not do.
Good call on Harper he is a fit as well.
We'll see what the Pats do. They can do what ever they want cause there are not glaring needs really cause even at receiver you could see Amendola as the wide wide receiver and Edelman inside or Hernandez. There are enough weapons on this team though I would really like a guy to stretch the field.
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Post by tns on Apr 25, 2013 18:36:50 GMT -5
Sidenote: Robert Woods had the second-worst three-cone time of player who ran during the combine. The Patriots love wide receivers with the quickness to gain separation at the stem of a route, and most of the WRs they've drafted have great three-cone times. Something to think about, especially given how much I've seen his name bandied around lately. Yeah, Woods is one of the more bizarre fits for the Patriots I've seen in mocks. It's not a personnel fit or necessarily even a scheme fit. Woods is limited to the slot and he doesn't have the elite short-area quickness that would justify making an inside receiver a 1st round pick. (Keenan Allen is probably the only WR selection that could make a Woods first round pick seem like a more desirable alternative.) This is a pretty deep class for WRs and they all have warts; I'd hope that Patriots don't reach out of need for a WR in the first round. If the Patriots stay where they are (#29), I have them taking Datone Jones if he's available. If they trade out of the round, which is a plausible outcome given the anticipated run of QBs at the end of the 1st round, I'm thinking they take Matt Elam with their top pick. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 19:49:56 GMT -5
Well a new pass rusher in the division as Miami trades up to #3 to get Dion Jordan. I thought it was for Lane Johnson but maybe they end up with Albert from KC.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 21:03:48 GMT -5
So the Jets get defensive and take Dee Milner and Sheldon Richardson.
And the Bills trade down and take QB E.J Manuel from FSU.
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Post by tns on Apr 25, 2013 22:13:10 GMT -5
Looks like Patterson could fall into the Pats lap at 29. The question is do they trade out of that pick (rumors of the Vikings wanting that spot to grab Te'o dangling their 2nd, 3rd, & 4th round selection) or do they keep the pick and take someone else?
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 25, 2013 22:19:22 GMT -5
Traded down with Vikes.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 22:19:51 GMT -5
Its a trade......I kind of wanted a top 2nd but good anyways this is what I thought they would do. Patterson is really not a fit head wise and he's pretty raw.
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Post by tns on Apr 25, 2013 22:21:51 GMT -5
Picked up the #52 (2nd), 83 (3rd), 102 (4th), & 229 (7th) in the process. Hard to argue with it. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 22:21:52 GMT -5
And the Vikings are taking Patterson.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2013 22:24:56 GMT -5
The Pats went in with 5 picks now have 8 in the middle of the action. They did the right thing I think.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
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Post by wcp3 on Apr 25, 2013 22:25:53 GMT -5
That's a no-brainer.
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 25, 2013 22:27:18 GMT -5
Picked up the #52 (2nd), 83 (3rd), 102 (4th), & 229 (7th) in the process. Hard to argue with it. Yeah solid haul. The Patriots now have two second rounders (52, 59), two third-rounders (83, 91), fourth-rounder (102) and 3 seventh-rounders (226, 229, 235). So they are back in this draft. Those are both late 2nd rounders though, but I guess this draft is about quality depth not being top heavy. I'd like to see them turn one of those 2nd rounders into a 2014 1st, though. |
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2013 22:28:50 GMT -5
Patterson is going to be a bust. There's a reason he's undrafted so far-- teams know he's extremely raw and there's a good chance he never develops, despite his physical talent.
Great value for the Patriots-- gives them a lot of capital to move around the draft board if someone they like falls. There's great depth through the end of the second round, and WRs like Quinton Patton or Terrence Williams or Markus Wheaton should be available at those picks. Also maybe guys like Wreh-Wilson or Margus Hunt.
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2013 22:29:55 GMT -5
Greg A. Bedard ?@gregabedard
Patriots won trade value chart battle. Vikings received 640 points, but gave up 862 to New England.
EDIT:
Greg A. Bedard ?@gregabedard
Actually, that was wrong.
Greg A. Bedard ?@gregabedard
Vikings got 640. Patriots received 648
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Post by tns on Apr 25, 2013 22:45:41 GMT -5
Patterson is going to be a bust. There's a reason he's undrafted so far-- teams know he's extremely raw and there's a good chance he never develops, despite his physical talent. I completely disagree with the notion of calling a guy who hasn't had the opportunity to play a snap in the NFL a bust before he puts on a uniform. That's not fair to any player. |
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2013 23:09:02 GMT -5
I'm just making a probabilistic argument. Patterson has a high ceiling but is also more likely to be out of a job in four years (or a return specialist) than any other top-15 pick in this draft, which is why he fell to 29. Maybe he takes to route-running really well a few years down the road, but he clearly hasn't yet, and taking a WR who has one year of production/tape and no history of running polished routes acknowledges the significant risk that he will be, yes, a bust.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 25, 2013 23:41:57 GMT -5
While I'm happy with the trade down, the Colts took the guy I wanted in the mid 2nd round. This team needs more insane german dudes.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 26, 2013 9:46:09 GMT -5
Resetting the roster and draft picks, heading into day two of the draft:
Current roster (68, limit is 90). Age in parentheses.
QB (3): Tom Brady (35), Ryan Mallett (24), Mike Kafka (25)
RB/FB (7): Stevan Ridley (24), Shane Vereen (24), Brandon Bolden (23), Leon Washington (30), LaGarrett Blount (26), James Develin (24), Tony Fiammetta (26)
WR (8): Danny Amendola (27), Julian Edelman (26), Donald Jones (25), Michael Jenkins (30), Matthew Slater (27), Kamar Aiken (23), Jeremy Ebert (23), Andre Holmes (24)
TE (6): Rob Gronkowski (23), Aaron Hernandez (23), Jake Ballard (25), Michael Hoomanawanui (24), Daniel Fells (29), Brad Herman (23)
T (4): Nate Solder (24), Sebastian Vollmer (28), Will Svitek (31), Markus Zusevics (23)
G/C (5): Logan Mankins (31), Dan Connolly (30), Ryan Wendell (27), Marcus Cannon (24), Nick McDonald (25)
DL (7): Vince Wilfork (30), Tommy Kelly (32), Kyle Love (26), Brandon Deaderick (25), Armond Armstead (22), Marcus Forston (23), Tracy Robertson (23)
DE/OLB (7): Rob Ninkovich (29), Chandler Jones (23), Jermaine Cunningham (24), Jake Bequette (23), Justin Francis (24), Marcus Benard (27), Jason Vega (25)
LB (7): Jerod Mayo (27), Dont'a Hightower (23), Brandon Spikes (25), Dane Fletcher (26), Jeff Tarpinian (25), Mike Rivera (27), Niko Koutouvides (31)
CB (6): Aqib Talib (27), Alfonzo Dennard (23), Kyle Arrington (25), Ras-I Dowling (24), Marquice Cole (29), Malcolm Williams (25)
S (5): Devin McCourty (25), Adrian Wilson (33), Steve Gregory (30), Tavon Wilson (22), Nate Ebner (23)
ST (3): Stephen Gostkowski (29) (K), Zoltan Mesko (27) (P), Danny Aiken (24) (LS)
Draft picks (7)
2nd round, #20 (#52) LB Jamie Collins
2nd round, #27 (#59) WR Aaron Dobson
3rd round, #21 (#83) CB Logan Ryan
3rd round, #29 (#91) S Duron Harmon
4th round, #5 (#102) WR Josh Boyce
7th round, #20 (#226) DE/OLB Michael Buchanan
7th round, #29 (#235) LB Steve Beauharnais
Undrafted free agent signings (15):
CB Stephon Morris, Penn State
CB Brandon Jones, Rutgers (really)
S Kanorris Davis, Troy
DT Cory Grissom, South Florida
RB Quentin Hines, Akron
FB Ben Bartholomew, Tennessee
TE Zach Sudfeld, Nevada
TE Brandon Ford, Clemson
OL Matt Stankiewitch, Penn State
OL Elvis Fisher, Missouri
OL Chris McDonald, Michigan State (note: he is Nick McDonald's younger brother)
OL Josh Kline, Kent State
WR T.J. Moe, Missouri
WR Kenbrell Thompkins, Cincinnati
P Ryan Allen, Louisiana Tech
Unrestricted FA: Josh Barrett (28), Deion Branch (33), Derrick Martin (27), Jamey Richard (28), Trevor Scott (28), Donte Stallworth (32), Tracy White (31)
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Post by tns on Apr 26, 2013 10:32:32 GMT -5
I'm just making a probabilistic argument. Patterson has a high ceiling but is also more likely to be out of a job in four years (or a return specialist) than any other top-15 pick in this draft, which is why he fell to 29. Maybe he takes to route-running really well a few years down the road, but he clearly hasn't yet, and taking a WR who has one year of production/tape and no history of running polished routes acknowledges the significant risk that he will be, yes, a bust. Noted. I'm not disputing that there's risk, I'm saying that it doesn't make sense from my perspective to call him a bust or criticize him for only having one year of game tape when he only had one year at that level and was featured heavily during that time. It isn't typical for a JUCO transfer to go to a major program and be featured in the offense from day one. It's a little misleading to say he only has 1 year of production on tape when he only had 1 year in a D1 program and actually produced during that time. That's 1 year of higher level coaching and he was a playmaker on offense during that time despite the lack of refinement in his game. Don't you think more time with coaches at the professional level (and a veteran receiver like Greg Jennings to take him under his wing) is going to help him smooth out those rough edges in his game? Patterson has an elite set of physical tools to work with and just turned 22 a month ago. He's got a lot of football ahead of him and calling him a bust before he's even put on a Vikings uniform is a head-scratcher for me personally. I mean we're on a prospect site here (yes, for baseball, I know) so I'm surprised that you're not recognizing he's a prospect with difference making potential that you've written off because he has more developing to do in order to establish himself at the highest level. |
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Post by jmei on Apr 26, 2013 12:33:58 GMT -5
Football ain't baseball-- without a minor league system and with limited practice reps during the season, "developing" players is much, much more difficult, especially for a position like WR where you have to develop chemistry and timing with another player. WR is one of the more difficult NFL projections generally due to the lack of press-man and pro-style route combinations at the college level, and Patterson has less route-running experience than most, with a lot of his statistical production coming off "get him in space" plays (screen passes, wheel routes, etc.) that are less likely to succeed against NFL-caliber athletes. He has the size-strength-speed-quickness combination that could make him the next A.J. Green or Dez Bryant, but it comes with a ton of risk.
And that's where I think our fundamental disagreement comes from-- on the nature of risk. I'm not trying to cast moral aspersions on Patterson or anything-- in his first year in D1, he put up solid (but not great) production despite erratic quarterback play. It's not his fault that he's raw and underdeveloped, but he is, and that means he has a high range of possible outcomes, with a high percentage of those outcomes representing bad value for a first-round pick. Clearly, at some point in the draft, the risk-reward becomes worth it, but I wouldn't have taken him in the first round and probably would have passed him over in the second round, too. I happen to think that the likelihood is that he never really develops as a route-runner (because doing so is hard, he's significantly behind the learning curve already, and there are reports that he struggles with the mental side of the game) and so, for me, he's a probabilistic bust, albeit one with significant upside. I'm fine with taking that kind of player in the third round (think Brandon Tate or Taylor Price) as long as you do so with the acknowledgement that there's a more-likely-than-not chance he never really develops.
I also don't think that "bust" is the type of epithet you seem to be implying it is. Hell, only something like half of first-round picks become solid starters. Football is a brutally difficult sport and it's not a shame that a player couldn't sustain the excellence it takes to stick on an NFL roster. I'm certainly not judging them personally-- even the worst of the worst of the "laziest" or "character concern" draft picks have worked harder at football than I have at anything my entire life.
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 26, 2013 18:47:11 GMT -5
Seems like good value for the Jets to grab Geno Smith in the second, seeing as many considered him a top 10 pick. Lets hope PFW's Scouting report had it right. |
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Post by tns on Apr 26, 2013 18:59:22 GMT -5
Jamie Collins (OLB - Southern Miss) is the pick at 52.
Hard not to like them grabbing an athletic pass rusher.
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 26, 2013 19:07:11 GMT -5
Looks like he ran a 4.64 40 at the combine. For comparison Hightower ran a 4.68. So the Pats are probably still looking for a coverage LB. Also my knowledge of x's and o's is lacking, I guess Collins could maybe be used as more of a DE than LB.
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Post by tns on Apr 26, 2013 19:17:30 GMT -5
Looks like he ran a 4.64 40 at the combine. For comparison Hightower ran a 4.68. So the Pats are probably still looking for a coverage LB. Also my knowledge of x's and o's is lacking, I guess Collins could maybe be used as more of a DE than LB. Collins has played both end and outside linebacker. He's an aggressive pursuit-type who makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. The only downside to taking him there is Jamar Taylor was taken before the Pats pick again at 59. Other than that, it's hard not to like the value there. |
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