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2017-18 Celtics Season Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 18, 2018 12:28:34 GMT -5
I blame the LeBron 4 day recovery break for talking about the future instead of the playoffs so I’ll continue. From a future long term salary structure and trying to keep the team together, the pick being delayed a year is nice. Assuming, they get a great player there, it pushes his time back a year and next season minutes would be very limited regardless of his position. Obviously, you take the player when you can get him and this is a great draft for bigs so it’s not perfect but just from salary stand point. Also, it would be great if Memphis continues their slide for a couple years and we don’t get that pick in 2019 but at least a year later, as long as it’s still a high lottery pick when we get it. Kyrie - free agent in 2019. (Max extension) Horford - can be a free agent after 2019 but at 33 will take his 30m option and be a free agent in 2020 at 34. He will no longer be a max player even though I expect him to be basically the same guy. 2020 onward tho he’s no longer max. Hayward can be a free agent in 2020, but at 30 it’s questionable if he will opt out of 34m depends on a lot of things. Let’s just assume he is also maxed, but I question if it will be 4 years again... Jaylen Brown extension eligible in 2020, but 2021 is more likely Tatum is extension eligible in 2021 but 2022 is more likely. Max guys by year (year used is start of league year): 2018: Hayward and Horford 2019: Hayward, Horford and Kyrie 2020: Hayward, Kyrie (I’m assuming Horford is still here but on a much less than max deal). 2021: Hayward, Kyrie and Jaylen 2022: Hayward, Kyrie, Jaylen and Tatum 2023: Hayward, Kyrie, Jaylen and Tatum After this point Hayward and Kyrie’s second contrasts would end. Hayward maybe prior, but he definitely wouldn’t be a max guy again; Kyrie is young enough that he could be online for another one. This is also when the number 2 pick in next years draft would get maxed out. Over the next 6 years only the last 2 look like times they need 4 max contracts. Two of the years there are only 2. UMass double check my work. Thanks Irving is on a max deal currently, just an old one under the old cap. So 2018 is 3 max deals. So you assume both Tatum and Brown with play under there 5th year options? Almost no chance that happens, so you need to move both them up. Nevermind they could be supermax players. Now resign Smart around 15 million this year, and lets assume Horford gets around 16 million like Gasol got on his Spurs deal. Smart triggers the luxury tax this year, after 3 years you're paying 2.50 for every 1 dollar over. So there isn't 5 max contracts, but Horford and Smart would equal one and by 2021 you'd have a massive luxury tax bill. Your on pace to blow by the Nets for the largest luxury tax bill ever. Not even counting our up coming lottery picks. 40 million over gets you a 100 million luxury tax bill.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 18, 2018 12:34:27 GMT -5
I'll admit that I feel silly for even starting that discussion a few months ago at this point. That said, simply playing devil's advocate, I think the one way you could still have the discussion is if you want to argue that LeBron's NBA is much better than Jordan's was. Given the leaps and bounds in analytics and evolution in how the game is played (e.g., things like feeding the big man in the post are dead/the corner 3 is king), you could say the gap between teams has significantly narrowed (even if there are still clear best teams in the league in the Rockets and Warriors). Honestly, is it really possible for one player to impose his will on the game now like Jordan used to? I'm no NBA expert at this point, but I wonder whether prime Michael would still be able to come in and just will his team to championships out of sheer refusal to fail to do so the way he did in his prime. Like I said, devil's advocate on that - I'd take Jordan and not feel bad about it, especially relative to his era. It's not that bad a discussion actually, Lebron is within the best to ever play the game. But it's approached by his fans in a very millennial way in that people seem to think it's a sacrilege to question his claim as the best ever. One he didn't earn, which is even more fitting about our generation. And that has gotten so ridiculous that Jordan is now almost underrated, like his numbers weren't that impressive and that he sustains his hold as GOAT simply because of anecdotal evidence. Which isn't true, Jordan was clearly better than everyone else around him pretty much like Lebron is now but you could find even less flaws about his game. He didn't dominate the ball nearly as much as Lebron which kept everyone engaged, he was a good shooter and he played insane defense on top of being so dominating on offense. I think Lebron has played elite defense during his second tenure with the Cavs for exactly one possession, the block on Iguodala. Otherwise he misses rotation, doesn't close up on open guys and he basically never gets back in transition. He makes some pretty blocks now and again, but the bad great outweigh the good. And while what you said about the league right now is true, Lebron also played with some great teams. That Heat team was crazy overpowered, in that the now goofy speech about him winning "not one, not two, not three" titles actually felt like a distinct possibility. But they didn't win as much as they probably should have won and some of that can be traced back to Lebron's inability to fully accept a more fluid offense, instead opting to QB everyone. Which is fine and dandy and it looks otherworldly while they're winning, but it costs his teams. And also I don't remember Jordan trying to GM his teams into JR Smith and Tristan Thompson kind of terrible basketball players. So I think he was able to impose his will because he was a more well rounded player than Lebron. Lebron wants to win because he wants to be Jordan. Jordan won because he was Jordan. It kind of reminds me of Tiger Woods chasing Jack Nicklaus. In the early goings while he was still somewhat distant from him in the conversations it was all fun and games and Tiger looked relaxed winning everything and banging the wives of every other player. In the past 10 years or so as he has gotten definitely closer to the GOAT position it started getting way more serious and now he plays the majors as a guy who knows he's chasing ghosts. Lebron is also chasing ghosts.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 18, 2018 12:39:41 GMT -5
Micheal Porter supposedly has an inerview scheduled with the Celtics. He is going to be drafted in the top 6 and could end up being the best player in this draft. Obviously there is risk given the back surgery but he was the best high schooler last year and was considered the top pick in this draft. Are the Celtics thinking about trading into the top of this draft? www.nba.com/article/2018/05/17/michael-porter-jr-calls-himself-best-player-draft
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2018 19:48:36 GMT -5
I blame the LeBron 4 day recovery break for talking about the future instead of the playoffs so I’ll continue. From a future long term salary structure and trying to keep the team together, the pick being delayed a year is nice. Assuming, they get a great player there, it pushes his time back a year and next season minutes would be very limited regardless of his position. Obviously, you take the player when you can get him and this is a great draft for bigs so it’s not perfect but just from salary stand point. Also, it would be great if Memphis continues their slide for a couple years and we don’t get that pick in 2019 but at least a year later, as long as it’s still a high lottery pick when we get it. Kyrie - free agent in 2019. (Max extension) Horford - can be a free agent after 2019 but at 33 will take his 30m option and be a free agent in 2020 at 34. He will no longer be a max player even though I expect him to be basically the same guy. 2020 onward tho he’s no longer max. Hayward can be a free agent in 2020, but at 30 it’s questionable if he will opt out of 34m depends on a lot of things. Let’s just assume he is also maxed, but I question if it will be 4 years again... Jaylen Brown extension eligible in 2020, but 2021 is more likely Tatum is extension eligible in 2021 but 2022 is more likely. Max guys by year (year used is start of league year): 2018: Hayward and Horford 2019: Hayward, Horford and Kyrie 2020: Hayward, Kyrie (I’m assuming Horford is still here but on a much less than max deal). 2021: Hayward, Kyrie and Jaylen 2022: Hayward, Kyrie, Jaylen and Tatum 2023: Hayward, Kyrie, Jaylen and Tatum After this point Hayward and Kyrie’s second contrasts would end. Hayward maybe prior, but he definitely wouldn’t be a max guy again; Kyrie is young enough that he could be online for another one. This is also when the number 2 pick in next years draft would get maxed out. Over the next 6 years only the last 2 look like times they need 4 max contracts. Two of the years there are only 2. UMass double check my work. Thanks Irving is on a max deal currently, just an old one under the old cap. So 2018 is 3 max deals. So you assume both Tatum and Brown with play under there 5th year options? Almost no chance that happens, so you need to move both them up. Nevermind they could be supermax players. Now resign Smart around 15 million this year, and lets assume Horford gets around 16 million like Gasol got on his Spurs deal. Smart triggers the luxury tax this year, after 3 years you're paying 2.50 for every 1 dollar over. So there isn't 5 max contracts, but Horford and Smart would equal one and by 2021 you'd have a massive luxury tax bill. Your on pace to blow by the Nets for the largest luxury tax bill ever. Not even counting our up coming lottery picks. 40 million over gets you a 100 million luxury tax bill. I assumed they would play out the 5th year option to get a bigger contract but the real big max deals come after 8 years right? So it would make sense for them to do 4 then 4. This team is going to make money hand over first, they should be paying huge tax bills or this is all for naught. I suspect they will for the right group. These owners won’t do something to lose money but they seem like the type that want the mega team more then profits. At least I hope so.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 18, 2018 19:49:41 GMT -5
Micheal Porter supposedly has an inerview scheduled with the Celtics. He is going to be drafted in the top 6 and could end up being the best player in this draft. Obviously there is risk given the back surgery but he was the best high schooler last year and was considered the top pick in this draft. Are the Celtics thinking about trading into the top of this draft? www.nba.com/article/2018/05/17/michael-porter-jr-calls-himself-best-player-draftYes they will explore it. Likely scenario is Rozier and the Sacramento pick to Orlando if the right guy is there.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 18, 2018 21:25:06 GMT -5
Yes they will explore it. Likely scenario is Rozier and the Sacramento pick to Orlando if the right guy is there. But Porter? Isn't he a wing? How would he get any playing time? I would love if Bamba was there.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2018 6:31:24 GMT -5
Yes they will explore it. Likely scenario is Rozier and the Sacramento pick to Orlando if the right guy is there. But Porter? Isn't he a wing? How would he get any playing time? I would love if Bamba was there. If Porter is as good as he can be then yes he makes sense, they truly play interchangeable basketball. I’d love a great Center too, but those guys, unless you’re AD, Embiid or maybe KAT aren’t playing huge minutes in playoffs games. Golden State gets by fine without a real Center. Also, I know I’ve been beating the pay these guys all the money in the world train but UMass is right it’s a legit problem that Ainge is going to have to navigate. Hayward will be 30 his next contract so maybe they do move on from him. Maybe the want to run with a super team of Brown, Tatum and Porter on the wings scoring from every level, and defending all over the court.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 19, 2018 7:25:35 GMT -5
I'm okay with moving on from Horford after his contract runs out. He's a good to great player right now, but he's already in his 30's. Unless he took a mid level exception and takes way less stay here, I would then keep him, but I think Horford will be replaceable by the end of his contract.
This is kind of why I want a center that can stretch the floor also in the draft. The Celtics should start grooming the next Horford replacement by the end of his contract. It'll significantly help the cap situation also imo.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 19, 2018 7:38:44 GMT -5
I could be wrong though with thinking that drafting for need (like a stretch center) is a good scenario. It most likely won't be. Those types hardly turn into franchise players like RJP mentioned.
Also, there is one player who comes off the books right around the time Hayward and Al are set to come off the books.
Care to guess who this player is?
Anthony Davis.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2018 11:02:45 GMT -5
I think Horford‘a game will age really well and he won’t get a max contract next time around. The guy just started shooting threes and is a 40% guy now. He’s a legit stretch 4/5 who’s also a great team defender and elite distributor/facilitator. Unless, his salary is used in a trade before it expires, I bet he’s resigned and for more than the mid level.
Jaren Jackson from this draft theoretically is the perfect Celtic. Rim protecting stretch who can shoot 3s. There are some red flags like foul trouble and he didn’t play a ton of minutes but if Ainge drafted him, I’d have confidence. However, he’s likely a top 4 pick.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 19, 2018 11:45:26 GMT -5
If Porter is as good as he can be then yes he makes sense, they truly play interchangeable basketball. I’d love a great Center too, but those guys, unless you’re AD, Embiid or maybe KAT aren’t playing huge minutes in playoffs games. Golden State gets by fine without a real Center. Also, I know I’ve been beating the pay these guys all the money in the world train but UMass is right it’s a legit problem that Ainge is going to have to navigate. Hayward will be 30 his next contract so maybe they do move on from him. Maybe the want to run with a super team of Brown, Tatum and Porter on the wings scoring from every level, and defending all over the court. But by the time they move on from Hayward, Porter's rookie contract will be up. Trading a player that's going to get expensive really soon in Rozier for a guy like Bamba who would get the Baynes minutes while being significantly cheaper and signed for longer than him and has a very decent chance of being an improvement, well that's a win. The cap is going to be a real concern really soon and Danny needs to play some Tetris to make everything fit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2018 14:27:34 GMT -5
A few things, it was only an interview with Porter, not a workout. I think we are jumping the gun on its meaning. He also meet with half the league and teams like the Rockets and Thunder that have no chance of drafting him.
Porter is almost 6'11'' so he might be able to play PF/C if he gains weight, like KD does now. You always take the best player, Rozier and Tatum prove just that and Danny has been great at that.
I think RJP is right about centers. As much as I beat the drum about them, true centers are becoming part-time players unless they are elite two way players. Baynes plays 30 mins a game against Embiid, but doesn't in the two other series. Even if Bamba is Gobert, I'm not sure that's the right pick for this team,given what it would cost to acquire the pick and the other players available. You could just resign Baynes or even go after Noel if you wanted. A player like Noel being a big reason why, all the numbers show he's a very good defensive player, yet his offense is bad, so at most he's a mid-level type guy now. Heck a bad defensive center in Okafor who I still think could average 15 and 10 on the right team is likely a minimum salary type guy. The age of small-ball is really hurting true centers, unless they are close to elite.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2018 14:37:39 GMT -5
I'm okay with moving on from Horford after his contract runs out. He's a good to great player right now, but he's already in his 30's. Unless he took a mid level exception and takes way less stay here, I would then keep him, but I think Horford will be replaceable by the end of his contract. This is kind of why I want a center that can stretch the floor also in the draft. The Celtics should start grooming the next Horford replacement by the end of his contract. It'll significantly help the cap situation also imo. Sure if he falls off a Cliff in the next two year, but otherwise he's going to be worth a lot more than mid-level money and it will be money well spent. It's great in theory to talk about grooming Horfords replacement, but all-star bigs that a true two-way players are about the hardest thing to find. You can't just go drafting for need in the NBA. So need and value need to meet and that's all luck. It's why I really wanted to go after Randle when he was available for a first round pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2018 14:39:43 GMT -5
I could be wrong though with thinking that drafting for need (like a stretch center) is a good scenario. It most likely won't be. Those types hardly turn into franchise players like RJP mentioned. Also, there is one player who comes off the books right around the time Hayward and Al are set to come off the books. Care to guess who this player is? Anthony Davis. We won't have cap space and Davis has shown zero interest in leaving his current team.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2018 15:00:21 GMT -5
Can’t believe we are finally less than 5 hours from a game. LeBron should be all rested up for 48 minutes and 50 shots
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2018 15:15:37 GMT -5
I would be complaining about such a large break that clearly favors the older team, if players like Brown and Smart weren't benefiting also. I don't ever remember huge breaks like this. At the same time it givens Stevens more practice time with a very young team, which is bad news for the Cavs.
If LeBron is smart he'll get his teammates involved early and pick one of Tatum or Brown to shutdown. That's what I'll be looking for. If they can't get anyone besides LeBron and Love going, it won't matter how many points LeBron scores.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on May 19, 2018 19:49:27 GMT -5
Lol at the officiating already.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on May 19, 2018 19:58:35 GMT -5
Lol at the officiating already. It's an absolute joke.
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Post by wcp3 on May 19, 2018 19:59:02 GMT -5
Interesting strategy not to even try on defense.
What a pitiful start with a chance to put the Cavs on the ropes.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on May 19, 2018 20:19:15 GMT -5
Pitiful start for the Celtics and this looks like its slipping away, but LeBron is literally telling the refs when to call fouls at this point. Despicable.
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Post by wcp3 on May 19, 2018 20:22:35 GMT -5
You cannot play worse defense than the Celtics have in this half.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2018 20:25:37 GMT -5
LeBron misses mayup gets late call with very little contact, LeBron mauls Semi it's a no call. Wow
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Post by wcp3 on May 19, 2018 20:29:09 GMT -5
Cleveland is 8-13 from 3, and maybe two of those shots were contested.
Losing this game is understandable, but not putting in effort is not.
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Post by wcp3 on May 19, 2018 20:38:58 GMT -5
The two Marcuses are playing like bozos.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2018 20:52:35 GMT -5
This is going to be an epic comeback win.
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