2018 Patriots/NFL offseason thread

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I can see them trading up for Rosen if he falls out of the top 10.

Sims latest (last) mock was an interesting one. I like his stuff because he’s original but not for the sake of being original. He clearly has opinions and thinks for himself on players and doesn’t have a sheep following the heard mentality.

He’s got Allen going 1. From before draft season he was my number 1 QB but I’ve let the “experts” spur me on him. Sims reinforced why I liked him and I am back on his bandwagon.

He had Darnold slipping to 17; I never liked him until the same experts molded me. I’m back to thinking he’s a useless bust. This isn’t guy who has lousy mechanics, turns the ball over and wasn’t a winner in college. Sure there are some good qualities about him but there’s way too much hype and not enough substance for me.

He has the Pats taking Carlton Davis (CB) from Auburn at 23 and Kolton Miller (LT) from UCLA at 31. He compares Davis to Sherman. Calls him he best man to man big corner (6’1) in the draft. Played a lot of man in the SEC. I wouldn’t hate a pick like that, but I’d prefer to walk away with Evans and Miller with those picks and take my chances that a good corner is still there with the first second round pick. And if they like Davis that much then I’d prefer they do the unprecedented and trade up a little in the second round and take him.


Basically if the Patriots ever walked out of the second round with Evans and a LT, DB and QB that fit into this breakdown, I might actually have a wet dream Friday night.

LB: Evans, Evans and Evans

LT: Miller or Connor Williams (or McGlinchey if the unthinkable happened)

DB: Carlton Davis (Auburn), Mike Hughes (UCF), Josh Jackson (Iowa), Justin Reid Stanford

QB: Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph or Kyle Lauletta

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on a edge rusher or linebacker going in the first pick of the draft.

BB's highest picks ever seems to be on defense with the one exception being Nate Soldier at OT that one year.

I think Kolton Miller is a poor fit for the Patriots current needs. He's a long term high upside prospect due to his athleticism but he's easily the most raw option for LT among the top 2 round guys. The Patriots already have a quality developmental tackle option in Garcia, and while they could use more depth at tackle their actual "need" is in the form of a 2018 starting caliber LT, and by almost all accounts Miller is not that guy by September. If Wynn slips to #23 I wonder if Bill would play him at LT for a year before kicking him inside to replace Shaq Mason, who will inevitably get paid a lot more money next offseason than Bill would pay.

This draft, more than any I can remember, is not about landing players at positions of top immediate need...it's simply about landing the best football players for this system over the next 4-5 seasons. The Patriots roster is going to turn over in a big way very soon. I understand why fans look at immediate need, but for most positions the rookie year contributions will be the least productive season from these draft picks. The team can't afford to take lesser players just because their position matches up with the current depth chart. I count QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, OG, DE, DT, LB, CB, S as spots that could be a big need by the next draft, and since Bill drafts more for year two contributions than year one I could see any of those position being selected in the first round if the right player is on the board (although Ridley is the only guy I could see them picking in the 1st as a WR, and I don't think any RB's/TE's will be worth it).

My linebacker target is Fred Warner (most likely at #43), or Leighton Vander Esch if his medicals check out.

www.footballperspective.com/the-trouble-with-finding-comparisons-for-josh-allen/

That article is basically how I feel about Allen. You can't get a comp for him. If he goes #1 or even top 5 it's something that's never been done. Maybe he's the exception and he becomes great. There is that chance, but I'm a stats guy.  Production is by far the best indicator for future NFL success. Many more players every year become great NFL player without the measurables than do raw athletes that all of a sudden just put it together in the NFL. With Allen we hear he didn't have a jump in stats because he lost a lot of very good players. NFL quality type players, two players got drafted last year. OK I get that, but why was he bad in 2016 with those players?

He's like taking a pitcher first overall because he has the fastest fastball in the draft, lets say 105 MPH. Great Kid, great work ethic, Tim Tebow type guy. Yet he has no other pitches, no control, no command and barely any feel for pitching. He's a college guy, so he has had development time, he's not 18. That just doesn't happen and for good reason.

QBs get overdrafted, almost all of them. It's just the way it is. Most important position in the game, you basically can't win without one. I don't think Darnold is a true # 1 talent like Manning, Ryan, and Luck. Very few are. At the same time he checks about every box you could want in a QB. He needs to sit a year and learn. He only started for 2 years, so he's not a finished product. He has very good production, great size, a very good arm and has great intangibles. Like after throwing in his pro day he flew out to throw for a couple of college teammates at a 2nd USC pro day. He dealt with the presure of being the number one pick for most of the year. Notre Dame and it's great D killed USC this year, but he bounced back and just kept winning games for them. He's my overall favorite QB this year, but I also really like Mayfield and Rosen. I would gamble on Jackson later in first round of the draft, he is just a rare athlete and has great upside. I also like Rudolph, but he's a good notch below those 4 in my book. After you get buy those guys I'd consider Allen. The risk reward starts to make sense in the second round.

After reading that about Allen how could any GM think it would be wise to pick him top 10?

www.weei.com/blogs/lucy-burdge/thursday-s-mashup-rob-gronkowski-says-he-s-excited-2018-season-super-pliable-video

 Make sure to watch the video


Per Mike Florio Gronk has wanted a new contract numerous times before. He is one of the most dominant offensive players in the league and has been for a while but he hasn't been paid like one. Good for the Pats but not so good for him, even given the injury history. For the the final 2 years of his contract he has a cap hit of 11 and 12 million. Would he sign a 3 to 4 year deal that guaranteed more money but the Pats could keep the cap hit around 12? Would that make him happy and motivated?

What if the TB12 method along with a motivated Gronk means he stays healthier for 4 more years? That could happen but he is just so big and takes so many big hits because the db knows that he is going to get run over or taken for a bus ride if he doesn't blow Gronk up. Those seam routes make me freakn nervous every game because he gets blown up so often. That could be the reason his career ends, either by a hit or him saying I have had enough. But.. he says he is super super pliable.

I think it would be good for the teams image, both with fans and players but making him happy is important also. Can he go 3 probably yes. Does he want to?

Allen wasn’t bad in 2016. He was actually really good as a first year starter. We can agree to disagree here if you want. I’m aware of his numbers. So let’s put that aside. You’ve also left out the most important attributes that Allen has. But again for the sake of discussion let’s put all the QBs aside right now. I’d rather get to the bottom of this:

What are the biggest reasons talented QBs fail in the NFL?

Baker Mayfield will be the #1 pick.

IMO he will be like Russell Wilson.

There is hope for the Browns after all.