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2018 Boston Celtics offseason
rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 28, 2018 8:30:10 GMT -5
It’s officially the offseason - time for the talk about how awesome we think next years team will be. Yes, the team is stacked as is, but there are some important decisions looming and important roster pieces that will be needed for this team going forward. An incomplete list and in no particular order; these are the things on Danny’s to do list:
1. Draft - will they trade up or trade for a second round pick or just draft where they are? What do they need? The popular choice is a big, but I could argue a third guard to develop is a greater need. Best player available is right choice tho.
2. Smart - to extend or not to extend... QO is a given.
3. Rozier - to trade or not to trade... he was god awful in game 7 did that take the shine off thoughts that he’s actually a lead guard and hurt his value on the market?
4. Morris - trade or keep? I’d keep him, unless he’s a piece to a bigger trade, but as frustrating as he was this year; he’s a perfect bench piece for Stevens system.
5. Baynes - resign or no? Depends on money... did he make himself a lot of money this year to price himself out of town? I hope not...
6. Larkin - was a nice piece as a bottom of the roster player but was dirt cheap. Is he worth more than that? Will he get it? He’s still young but would you rather his roster spot go to a younger guy like...
7. Bird or Allen - our two way contract guys... who showed more? Can players do 2 way deals for two seasons in a row? Are either of these guys worth a 15 man spot next season?
8. Monroe - I would say it’s safe to say he’s a goner next year but there may be no market for him.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on May 28, 2018 8:41:05 GMT -5
Smart - if he doesn’t take the QO, he might be gone. I have no idea what other teams are willing to give him though, but his age will help him in free agency.
Rozier - keep him unless a team blows you away with a trade offer.
Morris - at about $5 mill? No-brainer keeper.
Baynes - I would love to see him come back, but it could become a money thing. I think people are sleeping on Theis, who will likely get the bulk of minutes at center next season. But it’d be nice to have both guys since they complement each other well.
Aside from that, the Celtics have the luxury of standing pat unless something crazy happens (like KAT becoming available).
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 28, 2018 9:53:21 GMT -5
Yea, this team has championship aspirations next year so keeping Morris and not trying to “get value” before he becomes a free agent makes the most sense.
I don’t think Smart can reject the QO and become a free agent. I think the QO allows us to match (or not) any other offers he gets. If he doesn’t get any then he basically has to come back and play on the one year deal. I just don’t think there is any way there’s a big contract waiting for him. He has MLE written all over him.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on May 28, 2018 10:08:25 GMT -5
His age is the biggest thing he has on his side, but I won’t even try to guess what the market is for him.
This may be one of the “easier” offseasons Ainge has had in awhile, but as always, they’ll be all over any trade rumors that come up.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 28, 2018 10:19:33 GMT -5
Who says no?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 28, 2018 10:25:01 GMT -5
I think the Celtics say no to that, but it's a tough call.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 28, 2018 10:28:28 GMT -5
Yeah, this off-season is more about who the Celtics can keep from this year's team.
The only piece I see leaving is Rozier realistically. Everyone else I see the Celtics keeping. Maybe Baynes' market gets better, but I doubt it.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 28, 2018 11:06:57 GMT -5
Who says no? Oh I don’t know... but remember the Sacramento/Philly pick would also be part of the deal. I totally forgot about Semi though.... in college he was a good 3 point shooter. If in 2 years he can jump into the Morris role as a strong defender who can shoot (but without the all round scoring) that would be big time for this team. One of the keys to this team having long term success will be the ability to keep the pipeline of young talent coming. Not the Tatum and Brown guys (although that Sacramento pick being a top talent is key), ur the Smart, Rozier, Morris types on cheap deals. Not saying they can’t afford to miss on some picks but the longterm success will possibly hinge on some of that.
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Post by tizzle on May 28, 2018 11:33:46 GMT -5
I say no thank you to that trade, even without the pick going. In fact, I'm not all that excited about a Kawhi trade. I want to keep Jaylen and Tatum and watch them grow. The exceptions for that would be AD (I don't think there's much of a chance he's dealt) or KAT.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 28, 2018 11:53:19 GMT -5
Yeah you guys are right, that trade doesn't make sense given how the Celtics are built. However, even if Lebron slows down anytime in the future, you're still going to need a stopper for Ben Simmons or Giannis in the future and Kawhi could be that guy. He's probably too expensive and JB gives the team more flexibility for the future, but it's going to be interesting if either JB or JT takes that next step towards being elite defensively (JB looks on the verge, but still lacks consistency). They're going to need that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 28, 2018 13:29:28 GMT -5
Draft- Unless a bunch of player withdraw this is a very deep class. A crap load of guys that could be elite defenders at Guard and Small Forward, plus a lot of interesting bigs. So at the minimum I'd love to buy or trade for a second round pick.
Smart- You give him the QO, not sure you match any contract though. All depends what the Celtics are willing to spend down the road. Very hard decision on him.
Rozier- He's a starting level guard. Would love to keep him, but again will Celtics go crazy over the cap? If you won't pay him, you almost have to trade him. Teams are going to want him, one game won't come close to killing his value. I wouldn't just give him away, but is it worth turning down a lottery pick or a package close to that more one year? I want to keep him, but that's on the owner.
Morris- All depends on what the options are frankly. If you plan on keeping the players above and you can get some real draft value for Morris trade him. He won't get many shots next year and you won't want him taking shots from Tatum, Brown, and Hayward. Semi can take his place and might be a better fit for next years team. I have to believe Semi has some offensive upside.
Larkin- It all depends on the moves above. Wouldn't mind him that's for sure.
Baynes- Want him back, he exceeded my expectations. Has his limits, but he is a great defensive player. Can we afford him? Sure, but I don't know if I give him full mid-level money and some team might.
Bird and Allen- End of roster depth, don't really care either way.
Monroe- Vet minimum and I'm interested, otherwise no. He'll help you against certain teams, but can't play against other ones. He'll likely go to a team that can offer him more minutes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 28, 2018 19:11:37 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on May 28, 2018 21:10:23 GMT -5
Yeah Marcus isn't worth that. I love what he does, but not at that price.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 28, 2018 22:00:04 GMT -5
Man this conference finals game 7 is PTSD zone right now. The home team builds up a good advantage only to see it go away when they can't hit anything and regardless of that keep launching from 3? Yikes.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 29, 2018 8:31:09 GMT -5
While I agree he’s not worth that this doesn’t change anything. He was always going to highest bidder and him wanting 20m doesn’t mean he’s getting it. JD Martinez wanted 30m
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 29, 2018 8:44:45 GMT -5
Nothing surprises me any more as there are plenty of dumb teams, but I think Marcie Smart is a MLE player in today’s NBA. It’s hard to bust out of that category for guys who can’t score. He’s also a guy that’s more valuable to a team who’s championship caliber - not one who’s hoping to rebuild - and those teams usually are capped out. Plus, he’s restricted. Contending teams don’t usually play in the restricted free agent pool.
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Post by jmei on May 29, 2018 8:58:36 GMT -5
Nothing surprises me any more as there are plenty of dumb teams, but I think Marcie Smart is a MLE player in today’s NBA. It’s hard to bust out of that category for guys who can’t score. He’s also a guy that’s more valuable to a team who’s championship caliber - not one who’s hoping to rebuild - and those teams usually are capped out. Plus, he’s restricted. Contending teams don’t usually play in the restricted free agent pool. He might also be valuable to a rebuilding team who is looking for guys to set the tone and culture of the team and don't have anything better to spend their cap space on. Think the Kings or the Bulls or the Suns. A team like that might sign him to a big-money, short-term deal (say, two/$36M) knowing that he'll add defense and toughness to the team and will be an expiring contract in a year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2018 9:27:47 GMT -5
I think thats the biggest thing for Smart that teams want. A guy that can lead a young team and show them how to play D and hustle, but also help a contending team. He would be a perfect fit for the Suns and our former guy is there GM. Help Booker, Ayton, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, etc learn how to play hard and play D. That makes a ton of sense.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 29, 2018 10:46:23 GMT -5
Smart is the kind of player every championship caliber team needs, but usually have it at his current price if they are going to succeed.
I think backup ballhandler is really the biggest question, given the status of Smart/Rozier/Larkin. The draft pick is too late to even hope for a day 1 backup, though I suppose they could use one of next years picks to move up. Hitting on another Larkin type and making the right call on Smart vs Rozier vs both/neither will go a long way to establishing depth especially early in the season and for the playoffs.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 29, 2018 12:34:19 GMT -5
One thing to consider in this Smart/Rozier thing is that they absolutely CANNOT play Rozier and Kyrie together, that combo would get murdered on defense. Smart and Kyrie, on the other hand, is definitely doable.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 29, 2018 16:07:58 GMT -5
Smart is valuable to the c's and that is obvious but to other teams he is almost a luxury. As has been said can teams justify throwing big bucks at a guy whose greatest strength is something that can't be measured? In this free agent class he is barely top 20, which means he should be back. Rozier should be on the block. He won't get many minutes and has proven himself to be a starting level player so he has too much value to let sit there and leave via FA for nothing. Danny has shown that he has no problem selling high and doing whats best for the team, he will explore what teams are willing to give.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on May 29, 2018 18:42:14 GMT -5
It’s exciting to think about Tatum simply adding strength and being a year older and how much that will increase his scoring without even attempting more shots. His biggest weaknesses going to the rim was being weak and having balls stripped that won’t be when he’s stronger and not getting calls because he’s a rookie even when hacked. Well his shot attempts will technically go up without using more possessions but you get the point.
Being able to watch him, Kyrie and Hayward be set up by Horford and letting Jaylen Brown camp out alone in the corner where he hits like 50% from 3 is going to be a thing of beauty.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 29, 2018 19:55:54 GMT -5
While I'm not terribly confident he comes back I wouldn't call Marcus Smart leaving town a slam dunk. It sounds like he wants to stay and the Celtics plan on him being here next year.
This is a team that came within one game of NBA finals, and that team as is very young and getting better. You're effectively adding two all-star level players to that team in Hayward and Kyrie. With a better bill of health, this team is the team to beat next year.
You still have some good depth beyond those guys filling out the roster and we might be at a point where we can attract some highly productive vet min role players off the bench chasing a title.
On top of all that we still have a ton of picks over the next couple years with at least two of them having a good chance to be lottery picks. We're going to have to consolidate at some point. I'd love to see if we could get into the top 4-6 of this draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2018 23:46:14 GMT -5
One thing to consider in this Smart/Rozier thing is that they absolutely CANNOT play Rozier and Kyrie together, that combo would get murdered on defense. Smart and Kyrie, on the other hand, is definitely doable. We got to see Irving and Rozier play together this year and it was just fine. They were actually using that combo to close out games before Irving went down. Rozier is a good defender and Irving is a bad defender. Sure Smarts better, but Irving will always be a problem. Then again we've seen Thomas and Bradley play together on good defensive teams. It's kinda a mute point because Brown most likely is the starting SG. Lets look at the numbers, its offensive plus minus, defensive plus minus and overall boxscore plus minus Regular season Rozier OPM .8 DPM 1.0 BPM 1.8 Smart OPM -1.6 DPM 1.0 BPM -0.5 Irving OPM 6.9 DPM -0.7 BPM 6.2 Playoffs Rozier OPM 3.6 DPM .9 BPM 4.5 Smart OPM -1.3 DPM 2.3 BPM .9 In the playoffs Rozier BPM was 2nd overall, OPM was first and his DPM was fourth. Smart DPM was 2nd to only Horford. Gotta look at both scoring and D, Smarts very bad offense kills a ton of his value on D.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2018 23:50:46 GMT -5
Is the situation with Smart/Rozier going to come down to timing? In an ideal world you would trade Rozier for a quality pick in this year's draft and sign Smart on the cheap afterward, but a lot of unlikely things would have to fall into place for that to happen. If you could finalize Smart's status with the team before dealing Rozier that would be ideal. However, if they want to trade Rozier for a pick in this year's draft they'll likely have to do so without truly knowing Smart's fate. Smart could come back on a cheaper deal if he doesn't draw any interest as a RFA, but that's the only way he comes back and for a team that has championship aspirations it seems risky to first trade Roizer and then leave Smart's status on the team up to chance. It would seem safer to let Smart walk and keep Rozier even though there is, theoretically, a more optimal solution. That would seem to be a big part of it. No way they finalize Smarts deal before the draft, which makes things tricky.
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