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5/28-5/30 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 30, 2018 15:47:46 GMT -5
If the Sox were in any other division, the Sox probably don't go to Kimbrel today.
This is going to be a problem all year when you're in a division that is this talented.
Tomorrow seems like a scheduled loss too as noted by guidas.
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Post by danredhawk on May 30, 2018 15:50:41 GMT -5
Oh well. You had birds in the hand the last two days - and you cannot let those slip away for 'potential' Kimbrel opportunities the next two days. Opportunities that may never come to fruition. They banked two wins and now they take their chances... The next two games may be close - and if so you can use Kelly and Barnes to finish games - or they may be entirely lopsided. The John Farrell move would have been (and was) to stick with an ineffective reliever and blow a game, while saving Kimbrell for a save chance that never came... Johnson's outing was pitiful today - if they took any chances and lost this game because they wanted CK for tomorrow and Pomeranz buried them in a huge hole that would be worth getting upset about... If you wish Kimbrel was available tomorrow than direct your anger at the two relievers who managed just one out - and surrendered five hits - in facing six batters while pitching with huge leads. Because banking two wins was absolutely the right thing to do... Cora is going to have to start thinking about not using Kimbrel as much if he wants him to be effective in the postseason. He's on pace for 75 appearances which would be by far his most since 2011. He already doesn't look anywhere close to as good as he was last season and overusing him isn't going to help. Sure - and there are plenty of ways to do that with forethought. Kelly can certainly pick up some save chances and they can think ahead to taking Kimbrel off the table prior to some games. But that's a different discussion than not using Kimbrel in high leverage game-saving situations because you want him available for the next day or two... Saving Kimbrel and risking the last two games - when the plan was he was available would have been stupid. Shut him down the next two games if you think he needs the rest. Worst case is you go 2-2 - and best case is you don't even need him anyway... Or you could lose one of the last two cause you stuck with Velazquez/Johnson after the danger signs and then come to find you didn't even need to save Kimbrel - because you traded 10-0 scores to start the Houston series. All of a sudden Kimbrel pitches in game three down two, just to get work in cause he hasn't pitched in 5-6 days... You banked two wins, now you move on and (with the leeway to do so) make whatever decisions you need to make...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 30, 2018 15:52:14 GMT -5
Using Kimbrel is what happens what mop-up men can't mop up. Low leverage quickly became high leverage. And given the Sox excellent start there has been more opportunities for Kimbrel to protect leads. If they're 31-25 instead of 39-17 then Kimbrel isn't being as worked as hard. If the Sox continue to play at an extremely successful rate then that's another argument to acquire another high leverage reliever - the same plan Theo had to resort to in order to save Papelbon and Okajima, which led to Eric Gagne. Right idea - terrible results from Gagne.
But the 2018 Red Sox are fortunate to be in the same boat as the 2007 Red Sox who got off to the same blazing start.
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Post by patford on May 30, 2018 16:18:35 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2018 16:26:51 GMT -5
Cora is starting to really annoy me with how dumb he is being with the bullpen. Just like Farrell. I guess no manager can resist pitching their best pitchers far too often. Kimbrel is pitching in his 3rd game in 4 days, coming in with a 3 run lead, 5 run lead and today a 4 run lead. Obviously the runners on base were a factor, but c'mon. You can't do this all year and it's going to bite them in the long run. Definitely gonna need bullpen reinforcements for the 2nd half. Hopefully, Thornburgh can be healthy and effective. You're not necessarily talking late-inning arms, but Scott and Workman have been outstanding so far, Scott in particular (I'd consider having him replace Johnson right now if I'm the Sox). Buttrey has been very good lately and Jerez has had some inconsistency but shown flashes. You've got Thornburg and Maddox rehabbing. And from outside the 40-man, Ryan Brasier has been very good in stretches, as has Kyle Martin. I don't think any of those guys will pitch the 8th inning for you, save for perhaps Thornburg if he truly gets right (although with TOS I never assume that), but they've got a number of potential middle relief arms ready if they decide to move on from Hembree or Johnson, or if Velazquez regresses to the mean.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 30, 2018 16:29:25 GMT -5
The Sox almost certainly are going to need another premium RP. It could be Thornburg, but so far he has not been particularly impressive in his rehab. If Kimbrel is needed tomorrow or Friday, it will be extremely good news. I think Cora did the right thing today. He had a win just about in his pocket and every win is equal to every other win. You take them when you can get them.
Regardless of what happens with Houston, the Sox have the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles afterwards. They should finish that schedule in a position similar to where they are today.
I think we are witnessing a historic Red Sox team, one of the best ever.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 30, 2018 18:09:29 GMT -5
Houston and NYY appeared to be a dogfight, so I can't be too confident going into this series. With respect, I think you need to re-calibrate.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 30, 2018 18:11:45 GMT -5
Sorry I missed game. A sweep is awesome. Someone referenced 2002 a while back, when the Sox were 40-19 or something and didn't make the playoffs. Eff that.....we just swept the Jays without Mookie. If the guys continue to play like this, the rest of the league can piss off.
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Post by station13 on May 30, 2018 19:48:42 GMT -5
Devers need further motivation, Cora.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 30, 2018 20:45:24 GMT -5
man, astros couldn't help us at all...lost 5 of the 7 games against the yankees in their two series. Now watch them play us extremely tough.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 30, 2018 21:09:49 GMT -5
Devers need further motivation, Cora. Stop trying to hit every pitch 500 feet....
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2018 22:16:08 GMT -5
Joe Kelly is exactly 12 days younger than Craig Kimbrel. And it took him about 8 extra years to figure out how to pitch and isn't going to be approaching a 9 figure free agent deal. As of now, he's pitching even better than Kimbrel. I think Kelly would be a fine replacement for closer next season. I don't really have any interest in Kimbrel at what he's going to want. Kelly's track record should make it so he's far cheaper. I’ve been championing this for about three weeks. Kelly appears to have a HR-limiting skill, his walks are down, his GB rate is fantastic, his SwStr and K rate are up, he has four pitches (or at least three+) instead of two, and his O-swing keeps climbing while his O-contact drops, meaning he’s fooling hitters. He’s developed command and pitchability. He’ll also probably run about $60M less over five years.
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2018 22:20:15 GMT -5
If the Sox were in any other division, the Sox probably don't go to Kimbrel today. This is going to be a problem all year when you're in a division that is this talented. Tomorrow seems like a scheduled loss too as noted by guidas. My only solace is that those games often seem to go bizarrely unexpectedly. But yeah, Pomeranz has become a win-streak killer, and I worry he’ll drain the bullpen.
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2018 22:34:14 GMT -5
Houston and NYY appeared to be a dogfight, so I can't be too confident going into this series. With respect, I think you need to re-calibrate. All-time great badass line. Outstanding reference, sir.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 30, 2018 22:39:25 GMT -5
I can't be nitpicking this team with the amazing start we are witnessing. Cora is managing well, players are picking each other up, some cool hitters are heating up while some hot ones are blazing. This is a fun team to watch, a really likable team.
Of course, beating the MFY and Houston are the next step in this team's growth and evolution...and here we are, about to learn something about our young and talented team. Can't wait!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 30, 2018 23:19:23 GMT -5
Sorry I missed game. A sweep is awesome. Someone referenced 2002 a while back, when the Sox were 40-19 or something and didn't make the playoffs. Eff that.....we just swept the Jays without Mookie. If the guys continue to play like this, the rest of the league can piss off. The 1978 team didn't have the opportunity for a wild card and the 2002 team didn't have the luxury of a 2nd wild card spot. There's no way this team doesn't get a post-season spot unless they go on strike or something. I can't imagine anyone who doesn't think the Sox are 1 of 5 when the regular season is over.
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Post by kingofthetrill on May 30, 2018 23:19:35 GMT -5
If the Sox were in any other division, the Sox probably don't go to Kimbrel today. This is going to be a problem all year when you're in a division that is this talented. Tomorrow seems like a scheduled loss too as noted by guidas. If we are trying to win the division (which as a team, of course we're gunning for) then it's going to be a long and stressful season as a fan. If our goal is to simply make the playoffs, then the mood (and urgency) change completely.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2018 23:46:12 GMT -5
The Sox almost certainly are going to need another premium RP. It could be Thornburg, but so far he has not been particularly impressive in his rehab. If Kimbrel is needed tomorrow or Friday, it will be extremely good news. I think Cora did the right thing today. He had a win just about in his pocket and every win is equal to every other win. You take them when you can get them. Regardless of what happens with Houston, the Sox have the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles afterwards. They should finish that schedule in a position similar to where they are today. I think we are witnessing a historic Red Sox team, one of the best ever. The Red Sox 4th best option in the pen (Velazquez or Hembree) has absolutely been subar. Velazquez ranks 20th among team's 4th most effective relievers in my relief metric (average of expected and actual WP-). Bullpen depth has been a real problem, but Chris Hatfield gives an excellent rundown of viable options for the lesser half of the pen. They need to find a reliable 4th option to (e.g.) pitch the 7th on days when one of the top trio is unavailable, but there's no shortage of candidates.
But premium RP?
You know how many teams have had a 3rd best reliever better than Matt Barnes?
Nada. Zilch. Bupkes. The only team with a better trio of late-inning relievers than Kelly (ranked 6th), Kimbrel (13th), and Barnes (18th) are the Brewers, with Josh Hader (1st), Jeremy Jeffress (2nd), and Matt Albers (33rd). But note the edge Barnes has on Albers. Barnes has been the best 7th-inning reliever in baseball by a large margin. He's pitched like an elite 8th-inning guy.
You know how many relievers on tanking teams have pitched better than Barnes? One. Kelvin Herrera of the Royals.
There are contenders with an actual late-inning problem. It would make dubious sense for a team with a real good set of late-inning arms and a deep farm system to outbid them all for Herrera. If you had one of the two best sets of arms, and a scary thin farm system? Not happening.
Looking at actual roles, BTW, Kimbrel has been the 8th best closer in MLB, and Kelly the 3rd best 8th-inning guy after Jeffress and Adam Ottavino of the Rockies. Kelly and Barnes have been the best setup tandem in MLB. Now if Kimbrel can start being elite again ...
Oh, and if Steven Wright had faced 9 more hitters, he would have qualified, and he would have ranked 36th overall and 1st among 4th-best relievers (with the big asterisk that he'd been used in mopup).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 31, 2018 0:16:39 GMT -5
If the Sox were in any other division, the Sox probably don't go to Kimbrel today. This is going to be a problem all year when you're in a division that is this talented. Tomorrow seems like a scheduled loss too as noted by guidas. If we are trying to win the division (which as a team, of course we're gunning for) then it's going to be a long and stressful season as a fan. If our goal is to simply make the playoffs, then the mood (and urgency) change completely. The goal is to win the division and make it far in the playoffs. It's very lofty expectations, but those are the expectations.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2018 10:45:34 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs, per FG: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-oddsBasically, 4 of the 5 AL playoff teams are set. The problem is the Red Sox and Yankees have to fight for the division and avoid the play-in game, and that's going to be a dogfight.
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Post by Guidas on May 31, 2018 11:46:22 GMT -5
Verlander currently having an all-time epic season. Not assuming that he can sustain this pace for the season, but just incredible right now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 31, 2018 13:20:47 GMT -5
Verlander currently having an all-time epic season. Not assuming that he can sustain this pace for the season, but just incredible right now. Verlander averaged 95.1 mph on his fastball back in 2006. He's at 94.8 this season. He's got the Nolan Ryan gene for sure. Here's another interesting thing for a pitcher having a late-career peak, he's actually abandoned his changeup. He's gone full Kershaw: four seam, slider, curve, no change.
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