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2018 Draft Signing Period
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 11, 2018 11:59:29 GMT -5
I’ve seen that Casas will slot somewhere in the top 5, but where do we expect Decker, Feltman, and Northcut to land in the rankings?
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Post by 75tillnow on Jun 11, 2018 13:07:42 GMT -5
"Top three" would include Decker. Did I miss something here? Or is Decker about to sign as well? Figurative, not literal? It's probably literal, meaning Casas, Decker, and Feltman. I haven't seen anything reported about Decker signing but I think it was a safe assumption that he would. Well then! Alright! |
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Post by telson13 on Jun 11, 2018 13:08:21 GMT -5
I’ve seen that Casas will slot somewhere in the top 5, but where do we expect Decker, Feltman, and Northcut to land in the rankings? I’d probably put Casas 3 or 4 (value range 2-7), Decker 13 (Scherff’s overall numbers are poor but he’s regained velocity and has pitched well for a month, and is young for Greenville). I’d have Northcutt 14 right after Decker, although I’m tempted to bump Espinal up some. I’d call both range 2-6 with current 4s. I’d put Feltman around 17-20. As a reliever it’s tough for me to rank him too highly, but his MLB proximity (and the fact that Dombrowski historically promotes young pitchers aggressively), and that he’s very talented (even if limited to relief) make me pretty certain that he’s in the 4-5 range, 5 being a “closer” and 4 being a viably solid 7th inning arm. So I’d put a 4 on him now but with a 3-5 range and an “effective” floor of 4. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 11, 2018 13:12:24 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2018 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been decently solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Especially this year, when the club seems to have shifted philosophies fairly significantly. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Triston Casas $2,552,800 (reportedly signed, awaiting physical) 2 Nick Decker $1,010,500 (expected to sign soon, in Boston to take physical) 3 Durbin Feltman $600,000 (expected to sign soon, in Boston to take physical) 4 Kole Cottam $375,000 (expected to sign soon) 5 Thad Ward $311,800 (expected to sign soon) 6 Devlin Granberg $40,000 (reportedly signed) 7 Jarren Duran $189,900 8 Elih Marrero $10,000 (expected to sign soon) 9 Brian Brown $5,000 (reportedly signed) 10 Grant Williams $2,500 (reportedly signed) After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Nick Northcutt $650,000 (Expected to sign soon) 12 Chase Shugart $250,000 (Still playing in College WS) 16 Chris Machamer $300,000 After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 13 Dylan Hardy (will sign) 14 Nick Lucky (originally seemed likely to sign, but now seems on the fence) 15 Andrew Politi 17 Lane Milligan (expected to sign) 18 Eddie Jimenez (likely to sign) 19 Jonathan Ortega (reportedly already signed) 20 Kason Howell (on the fence) 22 Yusniel Padron-Artiles (expected to sign) 23 Ryan Fernandez 24 Logan Browning (will sign) 25 Caleb Ramsey (will sign) 26 Korby Batesole 27 Gregorio Reyes (reportedly signed) 28 Kris Jackson 31 Connor Berry 32 Bramdon Perez (expected to sign) 33 Adrian Torres (seems very excited to sign) 35 Jeremiah Boyd (on the fence) Total spent towards cap using these projections: $5,922,400 Red Sox Cap: $5,699,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,983,950 Super wicked early projected not to sign21 Brandon Howlett (probably makes more sense to go to FSU) 29 Mason Ronan (on the fence, but more likely to go to Pitt) 30 Ryan Bliss (will not sign, re-committed to Auburn) 34 Jared Poland (likely headed to Louisville) 36 Jake Dukart (re-committed to Oregon State, will not sign) 37 Davis Wendzel (likely headed back to Baylor) 38 Art Joven (will not sign, headed to Bakersfield) 39 Shane Selman (returning to McNeese State) 40 Zach Watson (highly unlikely to sign, almost certainly headed back to LSU) Link: Draft Signing Period PrimerUpdated projections Moved Shane Selman to "not projected to sign." Added details on others all the way down the line. I had been editing the post from yesterday, figured it would be more visible to repost. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2018 13:17:11 GMT -5
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jun 11, 2018 13:26:04 GMT -5
I’ve seen that Casas will slot somewhere in the top 5, but where do we expect Decker, Feltman, and Northcut to land in the rankings? Honestly? I'd put them all in top 12-15 with Casas the highest probably around 5. I think our farm system flat-out stinks right now lol, but this draft is going to inject a much-needed boost of talent/potential. |
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 11, 2018 14:25:54 GMT -5
Just a couple of general thoughts.
The signings seem to be happening at an incredibly quick pace even compared to recent years. Compared to the draft and follow era of ten and twenty years ago, this is much more gratifying as a fan.
Though I don’t know much beyond what I read here, and in articles sourced here, it feels like the Red Sox have done a good part of the work necessary to restock the farm system in just one draft. I know that it’s still early and some potentially valuable draftees may still not sign. Call me a fanboy.
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 11, 2018 14:27:20 GMT -5
So we know the reported signing bonuses for Casas, Kottam, Granberg, and Williams. Casas signed for slot and the other three have so far signed for a combined $379,000 under slot. This doesn’t include Marrero and Brown, who will definitely be way under slot, and Ward who will probably be under slot as well. They’ll definitely have a good chunk of change to throw towards Northcut and the other day three guys.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 11, 2018 14:38:57 GMT -5
I wonder how much contact the Red Sox have with CWS guys? They must give them a number, or else hard to move forward with any plans, or they could get left out.
As for Feltman helping the team this year... I have no problem believing he's good enough to pitch in the majors this year, but with Buttrey/Shepherd/Workman/six other guys I cant think of at AAA, it's a stretch to think he's better for the MLB level than they are.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 11, 2018 14:39:24 GMT -5
Am I the only one surprised by Cottam getting almost slot? I get maybe they liked him more than his rankings, but he's getting top 150 money and his higgest ranking is 322. That one seems like a head scratcher for me.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 11, 2018 14:40:50 GMT -5
If you want to speculate and play with the numbers, here's my excel spreadsheet wit all details in there. It closely follows Mike's estimates, but not exactly (I have Northcutt at $750k). But anyway, you can play with all the underslot signings and what it might leave us for the overlsot guys in rounds 10+. 2018 Sox draft.xlsx (22.51 KB) |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2018 14:41:32 GMT -5
I believe it is pretty common for high school players across the entire MLB, not just the Sox. It would also seem logical that it would be encouraged by MLB, if not mandated. Yeah pretty nice perk for a 25th rounder, you know? Those first 11 round picks might not need it with their bigger bonuses and higher chances of making it to the show, but for a 20 something rounder, that would be a easy perk to want to include if you're going to take them away from college to go play ball professionally and take years of their lives they could have used to study instead. Now they could still study after playing ball on the Sox dime, whether they make it or not. I'm pretty sure it's standard for high school players with college commitments, across baseball. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 11, 2018 14:54:54 GMT -5
Yeah pretty nice perk for a 25th rounder, you know? Those first 11 round picks might not need it with their bigger bonuses and higher chances of making it to the show, but for a 20 something rounder, that would be a easy perk to want to include if you're going to take them away from college to go play ball professionally and take years of their lives they could have used to study instead. Now they could still study after playing ball on the Sox dime, whether they make it or not. I'm pretty sure it's standard for high school players with college commitments, across baseball. Just curious Chris - or anyone else - if you know how this works logistically. The financial planner in me is curious and I was thinking about the last 2 nights as I couldn't sleep with annoying itchiness from poison ivy.
I cannot imagine the education funds are given to the kid now. Are they set aside in a trust? Or maybe an endowment type fund for all HS kids offered this? Do they just do it from cash flow? Is there a inflation component? A time limit? Couldn't they just put it in a 529 plan with the Sox as owners and the kid as a beneficiary? There are some issues with this approach, but it also might have the best overall results. As someone specializing in paying for college, I am fascinating by this. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2018 14:59:39 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it's standard for high school players with college commitments, across baseball. Just curious Chris - or anyone else - if you know how this works logistically. The financial planner in me is curious and I was thinking about the last 2 nights as I couldn't sleep with annoying itchiness from poison ivy.
I cannot imagine the education funds are given to the kid now. Are they set aside in a trust? Or maybe an endowment type fund for all HS kids offered this? Do they just do it from cash flow? Is there a inflation component? A time limit? Couldn't they just put it in a 529 plan with the Sox as owners and the kid as a beneficiary? There are some issues with this approach, but it also might have the best overall results. As someone specializing in paying for college, I am fascinating by this. I bet it's some kind of account that is time limited in some way that can only be spent on tuition and college related expenses similar to how health savings account work in the US. I have an ATM card for my HSA. Maybe it's similar. Just completely guessing. If this is done for most high school players who are drafted and signed, it's a pretty significant plan. It would probably be easier to administer if all 30 teams go in together on it. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2018 15:02:47 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2018 15:08:25 GMT -5
Wow, that sucks compared to what I suggested in the previous post. Reimbursement checks? |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 11, 2018 15:22:12 GMT -5
Awesome info, thanks. Fascinating. Lots of little details. At first glance, this could be made much better, but I'm sure there are many variables and many interests involved. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2018 16:37:34 GMT -5
Am I the only one surprised by Cottam getting almost slot? I get maybe they liked him more than his rankings, but he's getting top 150 money and his higgest ranking is 322. That one seems like a head scratcher for me. Didn't a similar thing happen with Netzer last year? Drafted way above where rankings projected but still got a surprisingly large portion of his slot bonus. I'm not a draft expert or even a draft novice really, but this seems like an odd draft strategy to go that far off field with #3/#4 picks and still have to pay most of the slot money. This year, to stick to one example, instead of drafting Cottam in the 4th you could have drafted Northcut in the 4th and given him $233k in over slot money (his $650k that he signed for minus slot value) instead of drafting him 11th and giving him $525k in over slot money ($650k - $125k). The difference in over slot money between these two scenarios could have gone a long way in paying for the contract of another Northcut-like draft pick. On top of that, Cottam could have very likely been available in the 6th or 7th and you would have got both of your guys anyway. I understand that I make a lot of assumptions in this hypothetical scenario and I have no behind the scenes knowledge of what's going on, but the math seems to imply that it's not a great strategy. If all of your assumptions hold true then sure, your strategy is probably better, but I strongly doubt that's the case. Northcut was a safe bet to make it to the 11th round as he wanted top-3 rounds money, and you rarely, if ever, see signability guys like that taken in rounds 4-10. Cottam on the other hand, there could've been 10+ teams that would have taken him between the Sox's 4th and 5th round pick. We don't know, but the Red Sox definitely have more information than us. So I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and trust that they felt they had to take Cottam at that spot, or risk losing him. Also, to your point about it being a strategy for them to go "off field" with the picks, teams don't use PG or BA rankings when they evaluate players. For all we know, Cottam could've been a top-50 player on their board. Netzer has been good in the year he's been in the system, so just because the pick doesn't match up with media rankings doesn't make it a bad pick. Edit: just to back up my claim, there were only 2 MLB Top 100 high schoolers taken in rounds 4-10 |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2018 16:38:39 GMT -5
Am I the only one surprised by Cottam getting almost slot? I get maybe they liked him more than his rankings, but he's getting top 150 money and his higgest ranking is 322. That one seems like a head scratcher for me. Didn't a similar thing happen with Netzer last year? Drafted way above where rankings projected but still got a surprisingly large portion of his slot bonus. I'm not a draft expert or even a draft novice really, but this seems like an odd draft strategy to go that far off field with #3/#4 picks and still have to pay most of the slot money. This year, to stick to one example, instead of drafting Cottam in the 4th you could have drafted Northcut in the 4th and given him $233k in over slot money (his $650k that he signed for minus slot value) instead of drafting him 11th and giving him $525k in over slot money ($650k - $125k). The difference in over slot money between these two scenarios could have gone a long way in paying for the contract of another Northcut-like draft pick. On top of that, Cottam could have very likely been available in the 6th or 7th and you would have got both of your guys anyway. I understand that I make a lot of assumptions in this hypothetical scenario and I have no behind the scenes knowledge of what's going on, but the math seems to imply that it's not a great strategy. I might be incorrect, but I think the issue is that there was a good probability that if the Sox take him in the 4th round, that the Sox felt they risk not signing Northcut and they lose that slot $ without actually getting a player. I think he was considered a tough sign or else he'd probably have been drafted higher. By taking him 11th, if they didn't sign him they weren't penalized. I think the picks 11th and after are the risky signing picks where you don't know if they sign and you hope you save enough money from the first ten drafts that you can apply the overage and convince the Day 3 draftees to sign. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2018 16:43:13 GMT -5
Am I the only one surprised by Cottam getting almost slot? I get maybe they liked him more than his rankings, but he's getting top 150 money and his higgest ranking is 322. That one seems like a head scratcher for me. Didn't a similar thing happen with Netzer last year? Drafted way above where rankings projected but still got a surprisingly large portion of his slot bonus. I'm not a draft expert or even a draft novice really, but this seems like an odd draft strategy to go that far off field with #3/#4 picks and still have to pay most of the slot money. This year, to stick to one example, instead of drafting Cottam in the 4th you could have drafted Northcut in the 4th and given him $233k in over slot money ( his $650k that he signed for minus slot value) instead of drafting him 11th and giving him $525k in over slot money ($650k - $125k). The difference in over slot money between these two scenarios could have gone a long way in paying for the contract of another Northcut-like draft pick. On top of that, Cottam could have very likely been available in the 6th or 7th and you would have got both of your guys anyway. I understand that I make a lot of assumptions in this hypothetical scenario and I have no behind the scenes knowledge of what's going on, but the math seems to imply that it's not a great strategy. Note that the 650k is Mike's projection. He hasn't signed yet and details of bonus #s haven't trickled out (at least I haven't seen them). You take Northcut in the 11th because there is more risk he won't sign. That allows you to grab Cottam and Northcut - there are no guarantees that Cottam would have been available later. And clearly the Red Sox were higher on Cottam than BA/PG. By the way, I wouldn't hold those rankings to be the gold standard - there is so much variance after the top ~100 or so on those lists. ADD: What everyone above said. |
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 11, 2018 17:28:15 GMT -5
Most interesting to me on the signing link 1) must be real schools, no Trump University fake college shenanigans. 2) tuition is billed directly, easy for player 3) living expenses reimbursed later, limited and only if semester finished not on probation. And *only* within 10 years of being drafted... so they aren't paying for an adult after an MLB career to go back; also reimbursed only up to cost of on-campus room and board - or if no on campus available $35 per day total (woof) 4) drafting team pays that obligation, even if player is traded 5) once you are done with baseball you have two years only to enroll... and if you are placed on ineligible list, sucks to be you (Kukuk, Denney I assume) 6) if you are on MiLB reserve (apparently thats a thing) your reserve bonus comes out of your education money Lastly, and most strangely Does Major League Baseball have a preferred education provider? Yes. The preferred education provider of MLB is Northeastern University. Northeastern University offers a full suite of academic programs, including bachelor’s completion, graduate programs, certificates, and bootcamps. Most degree programs are offered 100% online, and they have campuses in Boston, MA; Charlotte, NC; Seattle WA; Silicon Valley, CA and Toronto. You can learn more by visiting their web site at www.northeastern.edu/mlb. |
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Post by splendidsplinter on Jun 11, 2018 17:38:10 GMT -5
Didn't a similar thing happen with Netzer last year? Drafted way above where rankings projected but still got a surprisingly large portion of his slot bonus. I'm not a draft expert or even a draft novice really, but this seems like an odd draft strategy to go that far off field with #3/#4 picks and still have to pay most of the slot money. This year, to stick to one example, instead of drafting Cottam in the 4th you could have drafted Northcut in the 4th and given him $233k in over slot money ( his $650k that he signed for minus slot value) instead of drafting him 11th and giving him $525k in over slot money ($650k - $125k). The difference in over slot money between these two scenarios could have gone a long way in paying for the contract of another Northcut-like draft pick. On top of that, Cottam could have very likely been available in the 6th or 7th and you would have got both of your guys anyway. I understand that I make a lot of assumptions in this hypothetical scenario and I have no behind the scenes knowledge of what's going on, but the math seems to imply that it's not a great strategy. Note that the 650k is Mike's projection. He hasn't signed yet and details of bonus #s haven't trickled out (at least I haven't seen them). You take Northcut in the 11th because there is more risk he won't sign. That allows you to grab Cottam and Northcut - there are no guarantees that Cottam would have been available later. And clearly the Red Sox were higher on Cottam than BA/PG. By the way, I wouldn't hold those rankings to be the gold standard - there is so much variance after the top ~100 or so on those lists. ADD: What everyone above said. |
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Post by splendidsplinter on Jun 11, 2018 18:47:43 GMT -5
Add to that you are getting a free $125k that doesn’t count towards the cap but becomes part of the bonus. The articles cited above show us how the Sox work. They did the numbers contacted the players and made decisions based on the best strategy to improve the farm system.
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 11, 2018 19:06:04 GMT -5
From the linked article, it appears that Kris Jackson will be signing with the Sox. He's excited to start his professional career. Kris Jackson
It also sounds like Korby Batesole will be signing. His dad is the Fresno State baseball coach and he joked that the other guys drafted are going to get paid and his son will get a plane ticket. He said hopefully Korby will get an opportunity. It's a video and the Korby Batesole info starts around the 2:07 mark. Korby Batesole
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Post by telson13 on Jun 11, 2018 19:40:33 GMT -5
Am I the only one surprised by Cottam getting almost slot? I get maybe they liked him more than his rankings, but he's getting top 150 money and his higgest ranking is 322. That one seems like a head scratcher for me. My guess is that they just really liked him. Mookie was unranked, yet the Sox signed him in the 5th for 2nd-rd money. I don’t know if they had analytics data or neuroscouting, or just good-ol’ eyes-on, but my guess is they snapped him up “early” because they felt pretty certain that he was showing something at least one other club would’ve picked up on. Idk if it’s the offense (maybe they liked his hit tool; power was obviously well-known) or defense (historically better than recently), but I get the sense that they kind of drafted him as if he’d had a long period of offensive success rather than a breakout, and they were very convinced it was real. Maybe something in conversation or breaking down video/data, but tbh I’m impressed with their scouting in general so I’m inclined to be optimistic there. |
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