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2018 Draft Signing Period
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2018 21:07:16 GMT -5
Blaze Alexander just signed with the D'Backs for 500K. I mention this because he was the pick made in the 11th round directly before Northcut and was similarly ranked.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 11, 2018 21:23:54 GMT -5
Its an interesting dynamic in the draft. Are other teams as predictable? Red Sox always seem to go for signable high-rated guys in top 3 rounds, then college seniors/easy signs 6-10 to save some money and preserve strategy. Then 11/12 are the top targets for tough sign no-penalty if they dont sign picks, then all the high school/college guys who are going to get 1-$125k, then the final rounds of guys they just want to bring in and say hi to on their way to college. Its very predictable... how do other teams strategize the draft?
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jun 11, 2018 21:35:04 GMT -5
Its an interesting dynamic in the draft. Are other teams as predictable? Red Sox always seem to go for signable high-rated guys in top 3 rounds, then college seniors/easy signs 6-10 to save some money and preserve strategy. Then 11/12 are the top targets for tough sign no-penalty if they dont sign picks, then all the high school/college guys who are going to get 1-$125k, then the final rounds of guys they just want to bring in and say hi to on their way to college. Its very predictable... how do other teams strategize the draft? I think a lot of teams have similar strategies in this new draft format (which by the way, is just the worst). |
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Post by bluechip on Jun 12, 2018 7:27:42 GMT -5
Interesting that Northeastern is the preferred program. I wonder what the deal is between MLB and them? |
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Post by azblue on Jun 12, 2018 10:08:16 GMT -5
My recollection is that the Red Sox and Yankees were the first teams to use the strategy of drafting below slot players in rounds 6-10. It was at least two years after those two teams first utilized that plan before almost every other team followed.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 12, 2018 10:10:19 GMT -5
I’ve seen that Casas will slot somewhere in the top 5, but where do we expect Decker, Feltman, and Northcut to land in the rankings? I’d probably put Casas 3 or 4 (value range 2-7), Decker 13 (Scherff’s overall numbers are poor but he’s regained velocity and has pitched well for a month, and is young for Greenville). I’d have Northcutt 14 right after Decker, although I’m tempted to bump Espinal up some. I’d call both range 2-6 with current 4s. I’d put Feltman around 17-20. As a reliever it’s tough for me to rank him too highly, but his MLB proximity (and the fact that Dombrowski historically promotes young pitchers aggressively), and that he’s very talented (even if limited to relief) make me pretty certain that he’s in the 4-5 range, 5 being a “closer” and 4 being a viably solid 7th inning arm. So I’d put a 4 on him now but with a 3-5 range and an “effective” floor of 4. Klaw has him at 2 Boston Red Sox: Triston Casas (No. 26 overall pick, No. 2 in system) I'm just going to leave this here for the moment: Jay Groome was my No. 1 prospect for the Red Sox coming into the year, but he had Tommy John surgery. I might still take his future over Casas', even understanding that there's some small chance he doesn't come all the way back (or back at all), but I reserve the right to change my mind. And I see you making progress there in Greenville, Alex Scherff. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2018 10:10:56 GMT -5
Updated projections: New notes for Korby Batesole and Kris Jackson, who are expected to sign
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1 Triston Casas $2,552,800 (reportedly signed for slot, awaiting physical)
2 Nick Decker $1,010,500 (expected to sign soon, in Boston to take physical, bonus unknown)
3 Durbin Feltman $600,000 (expected to sign soon, in Boston to take physical)
4 Kole Cottam $375,000 (expected to sign soon for $375k)
5 Thad Ward $311,800 (expected to sign soon)
6 Devlin Granberg $40,000 (reportedly signed for $40k)
7 Jarren Duran $189,900
8 Elih Marrero $10,000 (expected to sign soon)
9 Brian Brown $5,000 (reportedly signed)
10 Grant Williams $2,500 (reportedly signed for $2,500)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Nick Northcutt $650,000 (expected to sign soon, bonus unknown)
12 Chase Shugart $250,000 (still playing in College WS)
16 Chris Machamer $300,000
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
13 Dylan Hardy (will sign)
14 Nick Lucky (originally seemed likely to sign, but now seems on the fence)
15 Andrew Politi
17 Lane Milligan (expected to sign)
18 Eddie Jimenez (likely to sign)
19 Jonathan Ortega (reportedly already signed)
20 Kason Howell (on the fence)
22 Yusniel Padron-Artiles (expected to sign)
23 Ryan Fernandez
24 Logan Browning (will sign)
25 Caleb Ramsey (reportedly signed for $125k)
26 Korby Batesole (expected to sign)
27 Gregorio Reyes (reportedly signed)
28 Kris Jackson (expected to sign)
31 Connor Berry
32 Bramdon Perez (expected to sign)
33 Adrian Torres (seems very excited to sign)
35 Jeremiah Boyd (on the fence)
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $5,922,400
Red Sox Cap: $5,699,100
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $5,983,950
Projected not to sign
21 Brandon Howlett (probably makes more sense to go to FSU)
29 Mason Ronan (on the fence, but more likely to go to Pitt)
30 Ryan Bliss (will not sign, re-committed to Auburn)
34 Jared Poland (likely headed to Louisville)
36 Jake Dukart (re-committed to Oregon State, will not sign)
37 Davis Wendzel (likely headed back to Baylor)
38 Art Joven (will not sign, headed to Bakersfield)
39 Shane Selman (returning to McNeese State)
40 Zach Watson (highly unlikely to sign, almost certainly headed back to LSU)
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2018 11:05:25 GMT -5
Northcut's twitter reads "3rd Baseman Boston Red Sox Organization"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 11:14:53 GMT -5
Moved Shane Selman to "not projected to sign." Added details on others all the way down the line. I had been editing the post from yesterday, figured it would be more visible to repost. Has Selman said no, or just a pojection? |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2018 11:26:22 GMT -5
Moved Shane Selman to "not projected to sign." Added details on others all the way down the line. I had been editing the post from yesterday, figured it would be more visible to repost. Has Selman said no, or just a pojection? Look at the top page 3 in this thread. Nothing definitive, but appears he's heading back to college, but leaves open the possibility of signing. I would say it's unlikely. |
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Post by soxfn24 on Jun 12, 2018 11:26:50 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2018 11:37:51 GMT -5
Just FYI, the current rules no longer allow draft-and-follow. Instead of holding the player's rights for a year, teams can now only sign a player up until the signing deadline. Unless you mean that colloquially, as in a summer league where they'd get a good look over the next month or something of that nature. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 12:30:31 GMT -5
Could the Sox go after Poland at this point? It's probably too late, but if they make him a decent offer I could see it happening.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2018 12:32:58 GMT -5
Just FYI, the current rules no longer allow draft-and-follow. Instead of holding the player's rights for a year, teams can now only sign a player up until the signing deadline. Unless you mean that colloquially, as in a summer league where they'd get a good look over the next month or something of that nature. I think that's what "draft-and-follow" basically means now. He's got a number he wants them to meet, and they said go play summer ball and we'll talk near the deadline, at which point either side may have moved. More on Selman actually using that language, which probably came from the player but may not have: www.fox8live.com/story/38368460/mcneese-gets-three-drafted-in-2018-mlb-draft |
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Post by soxfn24 on Jun 12, 2018 12:36:45 GMT -5
Just FYI, the current rules no longer allow draft-and-follow. Instead of holding the player's rights for a year, teams can now only sign a player up until the signing deadline. Unless you mean that colloquially, as in a summer league where they'd get a good look over the next month or something of that nature. I think that's what "draft-and-follow" basically means now. He's got a number he wants them to meet, and they said go play summer ball and we'll talk near the deadline, at which point either side may have moved. More on Selman actually using that language, which probably came from the player but may not have: www.fox8live.com/story/38368460/mcneese-gets-three-drafted-in-2018-mlb-draftI think that's what "draft-and-follow" basically means now. He's got a number he wants them to meet, and they said go play summer ball and we'll talk near the deadline, at which point either side may have moved. Yup, that's what I was getting at. Old school draft and follow seems like forever ago at this point. I actually thought that was kind of a neat rule, but I do also appreciate the new expeditious nature of post-draft signing. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2018 13:57:40 GMT -5
I think that's what "draft-and-follow" basically means now. He's got a number he wants them to meet, and they said go play summer ball and we'll talk near the deadline, at which point either side may have moved. More on Selman actually using that language, which probably came from the player but may not have: www.fox8live.com/story/38368460/mcneese-gets-three-drafted-in-2018-mlb-draftI think that's what "draft-and-follow" basically means now. He's got a number he wants them to meet, and they said go play summer ball and we'll talk near the deadline, at which point either side may have moved. Yup, that's what I was getting at. Old school draft and follow seems like forever ago at this point. I actually thought that was kind of a neat rule, but I do also appreciate the new expeditious nature of post-draft signing. Yeah I didn't see the harm in the DFE guys, but get why they want a quicker endpoint to negotiations. Did anyone ever come out of the DFE process who was good? Luis Exposito comes to mind as the best Sox DFE I can recall. Although that 2006 DFE they didn't sign, a Texas high school pitcher by the name of Brandon Belt, seems to have done ok for himself on the other side of the ball from what I understand. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2018 14:02:47 GMT -5
Yup, that's what I was getting at. Old school draft and follow seems like forever ago at this point. I actually thought that was kind of a neat rule, but I do also appreciate the new expeditious nature of post-draft signing. Yeah I didn't see the harm in the DFE guys, but get why they want a quicker endpoint to negotiations. Did anyone ever come out of the DFE process who was good? Luis Exposito comes to mind as the best Sox DFE I can recall. Although that 2006 DFE they didn't sign, a Texas high school pitcher by the name of Brandon Belt, seems to have done ok for himself on the other side of the ball from what I understand. There were a few notable ones: Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Darryl Kile. Can't remember the Red Sox ever hitting on one but someone with a better is welcome to remind me. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2018 14:28:28 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 12, 2018 14:30:07 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 12, 2018 14:32:27 GMT -5
The Red Sox are expected to reach agreement with power-hitting 11th-rounder Nick Northcut on a $565,000 bonus, an amount in line with a third-round pick.
Decker, a second-round pick and a power-hitting outfielder out of New Jersey, is expected to reach an agreement at $1.25 million, above the slot recommendation for where he was chosen (64th pick) of $1.015 million.
Alex Speier
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2018 14:34:12 GMT -5
Article also says Durbin Feltman will start with Lowell.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2018 14:46:46 GMT -5
Looks like Chris Machamer and Davis Wendzel are slated for the Cape Cod League (which starts tonight).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2018 15:01:43 GMT -5
Bonuses we know:
1 Triston Casas $2,552,800 (slot)
2 Nick Decker $1,250,000 (-235,000)
4 Kole Cottam $375,000 (+42,800)
6 Devlin Granberg $40,000 (+201,600)
10 Grant Williams $2,500 (+134,600)
11 Nick Northcut $565,000 (-440,000)
*Speier says in his article that the rest of the top ten either signed for slot or below.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 12, 2018 15:12:38 GMT -5
Article also says Durbin Feltman will start with Lowell. ...where he will likely make hash out of quite a few hitters. His breaking pitch, which some have called a slider, has movement that looks like nothing so much as the absurd drop Ben Sheets would get on his curve. Two killer pitches and what looks to be decent command. This one will be interesting. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 12, 2018 15:18:08 GMT -5
Article also says Durbin Feltman will start with Lowell. ...where he will likely make hash out of quite a few hitters. His breaking pitch, which some have called a slider, has movement that looks like nothing so much as the absurd drop Ben Sheets would get on his curve. Two killer pitches and what looks to be decent command. This one will be interesting. My guess is it's a quick "welcome to pro ball" stop in Lowell, where things are a bit more structured (dorm living, etc.). It does seem to signal they don't see him in the bigs this season as some have suggested. If they did, I'd think he'd start in Salem or, at lowest, Greenville. |
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