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6/29-7/1 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2018 20:52:40 GMT -5
So if David Price would like to opt out of his contract......I'd be ok with that ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 1, 2018 20:54:07 GMT -5
How concerning? ERod in a bad stretch, Price getting lit up, Pomeranz and Wright in the DL - Sale and Porcello are fine - but....starters all of a sudden feel like a concern.
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station13
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Post by station13 on Jul 1, 2018 21:07:54 GMT -5
Price won’t opt out. Could we deal him to a NL team if we eat 10m per year. New team gets him for 4/80. Not expecting anything in return Who can replace Price 175+IP of around 3.50ERA vs teams not the MFY? Can't just discard him for nothing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2018 21:13:46 GMT -5
So if David Price would like to opt out of his contract......I'd be ok with that ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) Kershaw is likely to opt out. Hanley and Price money would go a long long way...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 1, 2018 21:25:09 GMT -5
Price won’t opt out. Could we deal him to a NL team if we eat 10m per year. New team gets him for 4/80. Not expecting anything in return Who can replace Price 175+IP of around 3.50ERA vs teams not the MFY? Can't just discard him for nothing. I think the concern now is whether there is an injury involved - or, that he just can't pitch against the MFY
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2018 21:26:37 GMT -5
On Friday there was one out in the bottom of the 4th when the game became devoid of likely drama (one team reaching a 90% Win Probability). We could all be excused for thinking the rest of the series would have to be more competitive.
And so that point was then reached with one out in the top of the 2nd, and then with one out in the bottom of the second.
A real good study that I won't be doing: has the new mysteriously less-draggy baseball and the concomitant rise in homers made games less competitive? If so, that's a real good argument for figuring out what's different about the baseball and re-normalizing it.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 1, 2018 21:29:35 GMT -5
On Friday there was one out in the bottom of the 4th when the game became devoid of likely drama (one team reaching a 90% Win Probability). We could all be excused for thinking the rest of the series would have to be more competitive.
And so that point was then reached with one out in the top of the 2nd, and then with one out in the bottom of the second.
A real good study that I won't be doing: has the new mysteriously less-draggy baseball and the concomitant rise in homers made games less competitive? If so, that's a real good argument for figuring out what's different about the baseball and re-normalizing it.
Joe C and Tim N were discussing quite a stat - at the half way point of the season, collectively, there are more Ks than hits. So perhaps the ball - or that is part of it - but also the HR or K mentality of the approach being used so widely.
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 1, 2018 21:39:54 GMT -5
So Price is stinking it up against the Yankees again... Fine I could live with that, we all know the man is not clutch (unless we still count the K vs JD Drew 10 yrs ago). But what really bothers me is the fact that this (great) lineup of ours can only get 2 hits off Severino (And CC owns us). We need to grind ABs vs this dude, especially when hes walked 3 batters. He has thrown 92 pitches through 6 inning and it should of been over 100. Anyway we are stuck with our starters, I think that and our balance lineup gives us an edge over the Yankees, but the Yankees can get another Starter (some LHP) and beat us for the Division or even worse in the Playoffs. DD and Cora need to understand this, moving forward.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 1, 2018 21:47:51 GMT -5
It's fine, really. Yankees lead the season series 5-4 but 7 of the remaining 10 are at Fenway. It's fine.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2018 22:05:18 GMT -5
I'm no expert here but I believe if this game is done by midnight, they can activate Thornburg and option Haley. If after midnight, they will need to active Thornburg and burn his only remaining option.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 1, 2018 22:06:29 GMT -5
Price won’t opt out. Could we deal him to a NL team if we eat 10m per year. New team gets him for 4/80. Not expecting anything in return Who can replace Price 175+IP of around 3.50ERA vs teams not the MFY? Can't just discard him for nothing. You’d have a 20m per year player/players to replace him.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 1, 2018 22:48:55 GMT -5
Wow - two worst losses of the year (by run differential) were in this series - deficits of 7 and 10 runs...prior to that, a hand ful of 6 run deficits sprinkled throughout the first half.
Yikes....
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2018 23:03:29 GMT -5
So if David Price would like to opt out of his contract......I'd be ok with that ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) Kershaw is likely to opt out. Hanley and Price money would go a long long way... He's got health issues himself? He'd be a big gamble as well if he's not completely healthy. I imagine he'd want more than Price is making. I think the Sox need Hanley's money to absorb some of their current player's future earnings plus they might want to pay some extra money (as opposed to what they're paying him now) if they want to bring back Kimbrel. I know one thing - if Price opts out he's leaving a lot more money on the table than he'd be getting with free agency. The David Price experience has been weird. He pitches well for stretches and you get glimpses of what he was like for TB, Detroit, and Toronto, but then he pitches like crap for other stretches and you can't believe they paid this much for this. I don't trust him in big games which amounts to the Yankees and his post-season starts. Yet I felt very comfortable with him pitching in relief last year at the end of the season and against Houston in the playoffs. Having him lined up as the 2nd starter in a post-season series doesn't instill me with a ton of confidence. Yet if Wright came back, I'd be fine with Price pitching high leverage out of the pen. None of this really makes a ton of sense. That's the enigma that is David Price. And that's before you get to the thing he says and does. I was in favor of his signing when they signed him, but man do I wish they had simply signed Lester in Dec 2014. Don't want to rehash the whole thing. It's just the opinion I had then and still have now.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2018 23:11:15 GMT -5
How concerning? ERod in a bad stretch, Price getting lit up, Pomeranz and Wright in the DL - Sale and Porcello are fine - but....starters all of a sudden feel like a concern. It's funny how quick it can turn. I remember thinking - when Wright was establishing himself in the rotation, all five starters had ERAs under 4, which is kind of a rarity. Now E-Rod and Price have seen their ERAs go up over 4 and Wright is now injured and questionable as to what we can expect from him when he gets back. Suddenly the rotation doesn't look as strong. The rotation is supposed to be the separator with the Yankees, but... Severino has pitched every bit as well as Sale has. Sabathia has pitched better than everybody else other than Sale and Severino. He is a key guy. If the Sox can't hit him, they're in big trouble. We all like to think he's fat and washed up, but he's not. He's only fat. He can still pitch, and pitch very well. And he's certainly pitched better than the Red Sox' expensive #2, David Price. So then you have Tanaka, Gray, and mystery pitcher to be determined versus Porcello, E-Rod and Pomeranz/Wright. If you take away Gray and Pomeranz/Wright because they wouldn't start playoff games then you have Tanaka and mystery pitcher versus Porcello and E-Rod. If it's Happ or Hamels then it's reasonably close between the starters. So that makes it all the more important that the Sox improve their pen so that it's every bit as good as NY's.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 1, 2018 23:13:34 GMT -5
This outing by Price makes you shake your head. I wouldn't feel good if this guy was starting a game against the Yankees in the playoffs at all. He's the guy that has to go to the bullpen come playoff time.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2018 23:31:02 GMT -5
On Friday there was one out in the bottom of the 4th when the game became devoid of likely drama (one team reaching a 90% Win Probability). We could all be excused for thinking the rest of the series would have to be more competitive.
And so that point was then reached with one out in the top of the 2nd, and then with one out in the bottom of the second.
A real good study that I won't be doing: has the new mysteriously less-draggy baseball and the concomitant rise in homers made games less competitive? If so, that's a real good argument for figuring out what's different about the baseball and re-normalizing it.
Joe C and Tim N were discussing quite a stat - at the half way point of the season, collectively, there are more Ks than hits. So perhaps the ball - or that is part of it - but also the HR or K mentality of the approach being used so widely. If there was a theme to this year's SABR Convention, it was the disturbing rise in strikeouts (and homers, but since that's the ball, it can be fixed). I'm Chair of the Science and Baseball Committee and we have devoted our last several meetings to discussing ways the game might be changed to reduce strikeouts.
Strikeouts rose steadily in MLB along with HRs from 1920 to 1995. At that point, the Ruth Revolution was complete; there was essentially no one left who prioritized making contact, even if relatively softly, over hitting the ball as hard as possible. Strikeouts then were flat through 2007. In the last 11 seasons they've gone up 34%.
Your first guess might be that it's increased pitch velocity that is largely driving this. That would be incorrect. It's almost entirely pitch velocity. We happen to have accurate pitch velocity from 2007, when pitch/fx started, and the rise in velo explains 95% of the rise in strikeouts. The Statcast era that you allude to has increased pitches per plate appearance for the first time in a long while, and that explains another 3%.
Furthermore, note that there wasn't any change in P/PA until 2016 despite strikeouts steadily rising, and on average it takes 1.5 pitches more to strike out a batter than to get him out via contact (that stat courtesy David Smith's excellent conference presentation). That's just more swings and misses, without any improvement in hardness of contact.
The strike zone can be shrunk and standardized. But something else has to be done. We've kicked around a ton of ideas and the one we've settled on is this:
Make the ball just a bit heavier. Furthermore (this idea is largely Chuck Hildebrandt's, and the proper physics comes from Alan Nathan), if you place the extra weight just under the cover, you will reduce the spin rate and hence the amount of break on all pitches. It won't mess with hitters at all -- everyone's stuff will just look a little less nasty to them.
There are trainers who use heavier baseballs (Kyle Boddy, for one), so we should have some data about the relationship of ball weight to velocity, plus it doesn't seem like making the ball heavier would be an injury risk. Right now the ball must be between 5 and 5 1/4 ounces, and if you made that 5 1/8 to 5 3/8, that's a 2.5% increase in weight, and that would reduce velo by the same amount (give or take any changes in biomechanics, which should be minimal). You could gradually double that over a few more years and probably not mess with pitchers. That would make 95 the new 100, and that's pretty much where we were in Nolan Ryan's day. You'd probably see offense go through the roof, so you could then deaden the ball somewhat and we'd see tons of balls in play.
Our plan is to finish the current discussion online, and them I'll write up a report and we'll try to get some publicity with it. It can't be any formal recommendation from SABR, but it can be advertised as the collective recommendation of the committee members.
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dirtdog
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 2, 2018 0:21:28 GMT -5
I wouldnt pay Kershaw and I am a big fan. Athletics and balky backs are a bad match.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 2, 2018 5:18:09 GMT -5
It's fine, really. Yankees lead the season series 5-4 but 7 of the remaining 10 are at Fenway. It's fine. Season wise, you're absolutely right. Postseason outlook wise is where you're starting to question things. I know I would be questioning whether Price should start a playoff game or be a bullpen arm in the playoffs (if I was the Sox). In the third year of a 217 million dollar arm, you shouldn't be questioning those things quite yet, but it's where we are at this point in time with Price. The Sox should have spent the money on Scherzer a year prior instead of Price. At least Scherzer has been worth closer to his contract.
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Post by p23w on Jul 2, 2018 5:54:52 GMT -5
It's fine, really. Yankees lead the season series 5-4 but 7 of the remaining 10 are at Fenway. It's fine. Season wise, you're absolutely right. Postseason outlook wise is where you're starting to question things. I know I would be questioning whether Price should start a playoff game or be a bullpen arm in the playoffs (if I was the Sox). In the third year of a 217 million dollar arm, you shouldn't be questioning those things quite yet, but it's where we are at this point in time with Price. The Sox should have spent the money on Scherzer a year prior instead of Price. At least Scherzer has been worth closer to his contract. To use a Scherzer to Price comparison is pure folly, The only similarities are their contracts. To suggest that Price go to the bullpen for the playoffs is lunacy. The only way that works is if you are behind and wish to prevent a blowout... this could work against Houston. The hope that Wright can shore up the rotation is legitimate albeit risky. The Sox best chance lies in winning the division and hoping that Paxton takes out Severino. Beyond that the overall health of the playoff rosters will most likely determine the outcome. This team needs some 2013 mojo. A healthy Pedroia could just provide that difference.
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Post by bosox81 on Jul 2, 2018 6:42:02 GMT -5
I couldn't have been the only one who was not at all excited when DD signed Price to this ridiculous contract, could I? This guy, even during his best years with the Rays, came up tiny against the Yankees. Big red flag for me there.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 2, 2018 8:33:24 GMT -5
I tend to not make many season-wide decisions based on 3 1/3rd innings, but I'm not surprised that most are doing it now.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 2, 2018 8:43:37 GMT -5
It was a bad start, and it highlighted some of the issues with Price's arsenal these days. Everything seems to come in at a similar speed, and there's not really a breaking ball to show the batter a different shape.
When he doesn't have the pinpoint control he shows in some of his great starts, a good RHH lineup like the Yankees becomes a mismatch. He looks like a #3 starter moreso than a #2/ace that we hoped he'd be.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2018 10:55:51 GMT -5
Price is definitely down a tier as a pitcher since joining the Red Sox - it's pretty consistent over 400+ innings. He's a good pitcher now, not a great one. It's fair to say that that makes a difference for the playoffs.
But it's still a good starting rotation, and a strong one for the playoffs if Wright comes back strong.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2018 12:13:37 GMT -5
I'm no expert here but I believe if this game is done by midnight, they can activate Thornburg and option Haley. If after midnight, they will need to active Thornburg and burn his only remaining option. You only burn an option when you've been down for 20 days, FYI.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 2, 2018 12:57:24 GMT -5
Season wise, you're absolutely right. Postseason outlook wise is where you're starting to question things. I know I would be questioning whether Price should start a playoff game or be a bullpen arm in the playoffs (if I was the Sox). In the third year of a 217 million dollar arm, you shouldn't be questioning those things quite yet, but it's where we are at this point in time with Price. The Sox should have spent the money on Scherzer a year prior instead of Price. At least Scherzer has been worth closer to his contract. To use a Scherzer to Price comparison is pure folly, The only similarities are their contracts. To suggest that Price go to the bullpen for the playoffs is lunacy. The only way that works is if you are behind and wish to prevent a blowout... this could work against Houston. The hope that Wright can shore up the rotation is legitimate albeit risky. The Sox best chance lies in winning the division and hoping that Paxton takes out Severino. Beyond that the overall health of the playoff rosters will most likely determine the outcome. This team needs some 2013 mojo. A healthy Pedroia could just provide that difference. I wasn't comparing Scherzer to Price. I said the Sox should have signed Scherzer instead of Price a year sooner, especially when they needed the starting pitching at the time. Price's entire postseason career success has come in the bullpen. He's been a disaster when starting games in big moments. Even when he was really good in 2013 (season wise), he was getting bombed. It could also give the bullpen a added arm in the postseason. Price would be way more effective in shorter stints with increased velocity.
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