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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 3, 2021 11:16:59 GMT -5
Speed it is, and some hitting chops it seems. He had two hits last evening. Here's the box score. The schedule can be found here. The games are available for viewing also.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 4, 2021 9:49:22 GMT -5
With power added to his game due to the loft that he now has in his swing, Duran has a chance at becoming a seriously impactful player. The biggest thing I see missing from his offensive profile is lack of walks, unless or until he begins to take some walks his OBP is going to be tied to his batting average. He may bat leadoff during his career, but he is not put together like your usual leadoff hitter, that is one jacked dude. Defensively, I think he should continue to improve with experience, and with Jimenez in the pipeline may not have to stick in CF long term, and I'm guessing that he'll have the power to fit the corner OF profile after a couple of years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 4, 2021 10:54:50 GMT -5
Can't say I agree with the walk point, for two reasons:
1) As a general proposition, unless a guy is literally not walking, I'm not going to pay much attention to that in the minors. For example, when he was in Salem hitting close to .400... why walk? You're hitting .400.
2) I don't even think that's true. .069 ISO when he was in Salem was fine. Again, consider that he was hitting .400 almost his whole time there until he had a bit of a skid in his final week.
His first 2-3 months in Worcester this year will be telling. I want to see what he does when he's not either clearly better than the pitching he's facing (Salem in 2019) or overmatched (Portland in 2019). Worcester should hopefully be about right for him at this point. We'll see how he does, and if the power addition is real.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 4, 2021 11:21:36 GMT -5
Not just offense. Here’s a thought. With Verdugo likely in CF and Jimenez close behind, I hope they consider shifting Duran to RF soon. A center fielder has the toughest read off the bat and Duran has shown difficulty picking up the ball early, compensating with his great speed to make the play (like early Ells).
The reads off the bat in RF are much easier, especially as a former 2B (like Mookie), giving him the potential for that good first step and direct route which, with his speed, could make him a force out there. Despite having a weaker arm than both Mookie and Verdugo, his speed could prevent runs in other ways.
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Post by manfred on Feb 4, 2021 11:34:54 GMT -5
Not just offense. Here’s a thought. With Verdugo likely in CF and Jimenez close behind, I hope they consider shifting Duran to RF soon. A center fielder has the toughest read off the bat and Duran has shown difficulty picking up the ball early, compensating with his great speed to make the play (like early Ells). The reads off the bat in RF are much easier, especially as a former 2B (like Mookie), giving him the potential for that good first step and direct route which, with his speed, could make him a force out there. Despite having a weaker arm than both Mookie and Verdugo, his speed could prevent runs in other ways. I think Jimenez is in a different category, because he is a long way off. He could still crash-and-burn. On the other hand: a) if he does make it, isn’t it more logical to put him in RF, since he has a strong arm — and ultimately put Duran in LF? All, of course, setting Benny aside (good problems). b) if Duran’s power does not develop, that projected outfield might be poorly balanced and benefit from a trade of one of the young guys. If Duran and Jimenez are both speedsters with limited power, they might come to be redundant. Given that Verdugo is not likely to become a big power guy, they might eventually want to plug a power hitter in a corner. Good problems if Duran and Jimenez do reach even part of their potentials.
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Post by bnich on Feb 4, 2021 13:57:21 GMT -5
Anyone else see a lot of Jacoby Ellsbury in his swing and his overall game? Ellsbury was a great defender, Duran is still learning to play center, but he's the closest comparison I can think of in recent memory to me.
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Post by manfred on Feb 4, 2021 13:59:13 GMT -5
Anyone else see a lot of Jacoby Ellsbury in his swing and his overall game? Ellsbury was a great defender, Duran is still learning to play center, but he's the closest comparison I can think of in recent memory to me. Was Ellsbury a great defender? I honestly don’t recall... I feel like I have conflicting memories. But generally, he is the Duran comp I come back to. Fast, good hitter, butst of surprising power.
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Post by bnich on Feb 4, 2021 13:59:44 GMT -5
Speed it is, and some hitting chops it seems. He had two hits last evening. Here's the box score. The schedule can be found here. The games are available for viewing also. Already with a home run in the first inning today.
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Post by bnich on Feb 4, 2021 14:00:39 GMT -5
Anyone else see a lot of Jacoby Ellsbury in his swing and his overall game? Ellsbury was a great defender, Duran is still learning to play center, but he's the closest comparison I can think of in recent memory to me. Was Ellsbury a great defender? I honestly don’t recall... I feel like I have conflicting memories. But generally, he is the Duran comp I come back to. Fast, good hitter, butst of surprising power. Not the strongest arm, but I thought by my eye he was a great defender. I'm not up to speed on analytics like a lot of you guys here.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 4, 2021 15:18:28 GMT -5
Was Ellsbury a great defender? I honestly don’t recall... I feel like I have conflicting memories. But generally, he is the Duran comp I come back to. Fast, good hitter, butst of surprising power. Not the strongest arm, but I thought by my eye he was a great defender. I'm not up to speed on analytics like a lot of you guys here. I’d say average at best. He could defiantly run and covered ground but his arm was honestly one of the worst I’ve ever saw.
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 4, 2021 15:35:41 GMT -5
Not only has he seemed to add power, but it also looks kinda easy. Didn't take a big swing to hit that out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 16:29:16 GMT -5
Gonna finish today 3/4, 2B, HR, BB. The out was a liner to LF.
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Post by manfred on Feb 4, 2021 16:40:26 GMT -5
I’ll say it again... he looks kinda huge in his upper-body. His shoulders are starting to get that slope massive guys have. If he keeps his speed AND gets huge, he could be special.
One question: what is the pitching like in this league? Not to pee on a feel-good story, but in terms of our minors, how advanced/competitive is it?
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 4, 2021 16:48:55 GMT -5
I’ll say it again... he looks kinda huge in his upper-body. His shoulders are starting to get that slope massive guys have. If he keeps his speed AND gets huge, he could be special. One question: what is the pitching like in this league? Not to pee on a feel-good story, but in terms of our minors, how advanced/competitive is it? Rather than Ellsbury, who really only had one year of power, I'm now imagining Duran's ceiling as something like prime Grady Sizemore. That's unlikely no doubt, but his build reminds me more of a Sizemore type, a guy who was built for power and speed and played great defense while he was healthy.
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Post by bnich on Feb 4, 2021 22:42:11 GMT -5
I’ll say it again... he looks kinda huge in his upper-body. His shoulders are starting to get that slope massive guys have. If he keeps his speed AND gets huge, he could be special. One question: what is the pitching like in this league? Not to pee on a feel-good story, but in terms of our minors, how advanced/competitive is it? Rather than Ellsbury, who really only had one year of power, I'm now imagining Duran's ceiling as something like prime Grady Sizemore. That's unlikely no doubt, but his build reminds me more of a Sizemore type, a guy who was built for power and speed and played great defense while he was healthy. That's a nice comparison as well. Great player in his time.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 5, 2021 9:55:24 GMT -5
Love the Sizemore comparison (physically), I think another body type comparison might be a little like RWM or Brady Anderson (Orioles version).
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 5, 2021 9:59:08 GMT -5
Can't say I agree with the walk point, for two reasons: 1) As a general proposition, unless a guy is literally not walking, I'm not going to pay much attention to that in the minors. For example, when he was in Salem hitting close to .400... why walk? You're hitting .400. 2) I don't even think that's true. .069 ISO when he was in Salem was fine. Again, consider that he was hitting .400 almost his whole time there until he had a bit of a skid in his final week. His first 2-3 months in Worcester this year will be telling. I want to see what he does when he's not either clearly better than the pitching he's facing (Salem in 2019) or overmatched (Portland in 2019). Worcester should hopefully be about right for him at this point. We'll see how he does, and if the power addition is real. That is fair, I agree with that assessment. Very excited to see what he does in AAA!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2021 14:26:24 GMT -5
What's the most recent scouting feedback on his centerfield defense?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 5, 2021 15:20:54 GMT -5
Probably McMillon's take at the ATF. He was very diplomatic, but clear that there was work to be done.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 6, 2021 2:26:15 GMT -5
Two more hits tonight, and another walk. Duran brought his "A" game down to Mexico - he's acting like he's back in Salem! .391/.462/.652 so far.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 6, 2021 9:06:38 GMT -5
Duran had an infield single to shortstop last night and his home-to-first time was faster than any I could find written about from statcast.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 6, 2021 10:14:21 GMT -5
By age 24 Sizemore had 54 HRs in the majors and two 20 plus HR seasons. Duran hasn't hit 20 HRs in College and the minors combined in 489 games. He's got a long way to go before he's even in the same ballpark.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 6, 2021 10:58:53 GMT -5
Very different trajectories. Sizemore was drafted right out of high school, Duran after four years of college.
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Post by bnich on Feb 7, 2021 13:59:34 GMT -5
Duran's final Caribbean WS line:.400/.500/.652
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Post by foreverred9 on Feb 7, 2021 16:07:15 GMT -5
He and Arauz both ended up on the All-Tournament team, alongside Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Yadier Molina, and Carlos Martinez.
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