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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 7, 2021 16:29:43 GMT -5
Duran was named the Caribbean Series MVP. His final Caribbean WS line:.400/.500/.652 This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP.
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Post by bnich on Feb 8, 2021 7:17:34 GMT -5
Duran was named the Caribbean Series MVP. His final Caribbean WS line:.400/.500/.652 This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP. guess I misread Peter Gammons' tweet
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 8, 2021 10:06:45 GMT -5
This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP. guess I misread Peter Gammons' tweet He was the MVP of the Puerto Rican championship series the week prior, as the tweet says. Sorry - wasn't trying to play gotcha or be a smartass - that had been discussed on here already.
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Post by rasimon on Feb 8, 2021 12:15:30 GMT -5
Duran was named the Caribbean Series MVP. His final Caribbean WS line:.400/.500/.652 This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP. If he continues to hit like that, we should be able to carry his glove in CF
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Post by incandenza on Feb 17, 2021 14:48:53 GMT -5
Is this accurate? I'm not sure how to square it with
ADD: I'm for sure confused about what leagues and/or tournaments he played in this winter, but just in general I had the impression he was slugging purty good?
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 17, 2021 15:07:43 GMT -5
Is this accurate? I'm not sure how to square it with
ADD: I'm for sure confused about what leagues and/or tournaments he played in this winter, but just in general I had the impression he was slugging purty good? It's just two videos but back on page 12, he hit a HR to Right Center and in another video pulled one that looked like some easy power. He's probably never going to be a 30 HR guy, maybe not even 20 but jeez yeah it seems he's pretty low on Duran compared to some other evaluators. His floor right now sounds like he's a big league role player to me but time will tell. I know I'm pretty high on the guy from what I've read about him.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Feb 17, 2021 15:23:49 GMT -5
Is this accurate? I'm not sure how to square it with
ADD: I'm for sure confused about what leagues and/or tournaments he played in this winter, but just in general I had the impression he was slugging purty good? Duran’s regular season Puerto Rican stats were much worse than his playoff stats. edit: .236 .386 .273 .658 for Caguas in 70 PA
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Post by incandenza on Feb 17, 2021 15:36:32 GMT -5
Ah, couldn't find it earlier but now I see - he had only 1 HR, 1 3B, and 3 2Bs in 80 ABs combined in winter ball. Not great.
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Post by rismith on Feb 17, 2021 16:12:39 GMT -5
To be fair it was a SSS and I think he started slowly. Getting up to speed in winter ball can take a bit and so in a small sample I would be cautious in judging numbers. As he warmed up his numbers got better and better.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 17, 2021 16:41:47 GMT -5
To be fair it was a SSS and I think he started slowly. Getting up to speed in winter ball can take a bit and so in a small sample I would be cautious in judging numbers. As he warmed up his numbers got better and better. Yeah, I don't take it as more than a SSS. But it certainly wouldn't have been a bad thing if he had shown more power. So far the optimism on Duran leans awfully heavily on how he looked in the very weird conditions of the alternate site last season - and possibly the fact that there simply aren't that many other guys to steal our attention in this system at the moment.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 16:50:42 GMT -5
This is not correct. Juan Lagares was named the MVP. If he continues to hit like that, we should be able to carry his glove in CF I love the prospect of Duran, but Im wondering why everybody is trying to push him into CF. Verdugo (although he sometimes takes a bad route) is more than adequate in CF. his range is at least average and he has a strong arm, much stronger than Duran. If not saying this is the long term answer, but I guarantee Verdugos defense in CF will not be the Sox biggest issue. Starting Duran in LF would take alot of pressure off of him.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 17, 2021 19:07:25 GMT -5
Is this accurate? I'm not sure how to square it with
ADD: I'm for sure confused about what leagues and/or tournaments he played in this winter, but just in general I had the impression he was slugging purty good? Duran’s regular season Puerto Rican stats were much worse than his playoff stats. edit: .236 .386 .273 .658 for Caguas in 70 PA You are missing one of his stat lines: He had regular season, PR play-off, and Caribbean play-off lines. In the PR play-off he had 2 HR in 25 AB. Overall, in 105 AB, he hit 3 HR's, OBP was somewhere around .415-.420, and SA was just under .450. After a slow start in the regular season, he put up some excellent numbers. Even in the regular season, if he had 55 AB and 70 PA, there were a lot of walks in there!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 17, 2021 19:39:55 GMT -5
If he continues to hit like that, we should be able to carry his glove in CF I love the prospect of Duran, but Im wondering why everybody is trying to push him into CF. Verdugo (although he sometimes takes a bad route) is more than adequate in CF. his range is at least average and he has a strong arm, much stronger than Duran. If not saying this is the long term answer, but I guarantee Verdugos defense in CF will not be the Sox biggest issue. Starting Duran in LF would take alot of pressure off of him. Is because he has played 7 games in LF in the minors, all in the AFL. Duran’s regular season Puerto Rican stats were much worse than his playoff stats. edit: .236 .386 .273 .658 for Caguas in 70 PA You are missing one of his stat lines: He had regular season, PR play-off, and Caribbean play-off lines. In the PR play-off he had 2 HR in 25 AB. Overall, in 105 AB, he hit 3 HR's, OBP was somewhere around .415-.420, and SA was just under .450. After a slow start in the regular season, he put up some excellent numbers. Even in the regular season, if he had 55 AB and 70 PA, there were a lot of walks in there! Yeah, there's a whole lot of SSS weirdness, but I get Longenhagen's point - he'd buy the ATS power surge more if it had carried over, which it didn't, but he didn't say that he doesn't buy it because it didn't.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 17, 2021 20:05:17 GMT -5
wondering why everyone is so concerned about his power ? his best tool is his speed. If that translates into good outfield play that is a first team regular. If he hit 15 homeruns, that is good enough for me.
Steal 30 bases. We may have our own Brett Gardner (sorry, hate mentioning that name). Speed.....kills......
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 17, 2021 21:35:33 GMT -5
wondering why everyone is so concerned about his power ? his best tool is his speed. If that translates into good outfield play that is a first team regular. If he hit 15 homeruns, that is good enough for me. Steal 30 bases. We may have our own Brett Gardner (sorry, hate mentioning that name). Speed.....kills...... Because he didn't project to hit 15 home runs before. It was probably a 5-10 HR profile at best. He was in real danger of being, say, Dee Gordon-Strange in one of his bad years. You need to be careful with minor league slugging percentages for fast guys. By legging out extra bases they won't get in the majors, they can look like they're hitting for more power than they truly will be able to in the big leagues.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 17, 2021 23:14:46 GMT -5
wondering why everyone is so concerned about his power ? his best tool is his speed. If that translates into good outfield play that is a first team regular. If he hit 15 homeruns, that is good enough for me. Steal 30 bases. We may have our own Brett Gardner (sorry, hate mentioning that name). Speed.....kills...... Because he didn't project to hit 15 home runs before. It was probably a 5-10 HR profile at best. He was in real danger of being, say, Dee Gordon-Strange in one of his bad years. You need to be careful with minor league slugging percentages for fast guys. By legging out extra bases they won't get in the majors, they can look like they're hitting for more power than they truly will be able to in the big leagues. I have no idea how to evaluate the level of play in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean series this winter, but it was just about the only game in town. Duran performed well by every indicator, so I'm not sure what numbers Longenhagen saw (and he seems to be judging only on numbers). Duran had no HR's in his first 55 AB's but 3 in his last 50 against better competition. As an indicator of power for a lead-off hitter that's promising, especially since the one HR which we could see on this site was ripped. Nobody else has mentioned seeing any of Duran's winter-league games, but I checked in and saw something like 10 of his at bats in the Caribbean series. He approached them like a lead-off hitter, working counts and looking to make solid contact but never, not on a single swing, selling out for power. Twice I saw him draw a walk from a 1-2 count, and he hit with two strikes in almost every at bat (with one K overall in the AB's I saw). He had a couple of hits off lefties with two strikes. To me, the number that is most impressive is his OBP, which is close to Wade Boggs territory, around .415-.420, with walks, I believe, in as many as 15% of his PA's. Personally, like most people on this site, I enjoy ratings, but, unlike most people, I don't take them very seriously because all that really matters is how players perform on the field. I prefer to see Sox prospects underrated (as they often seem to be) because I believe it makes it easier for most of them to perform well when expectations are reasonable/modest -- as long as the Sox value these players accurately and recognize their abilities and how to maximize them. What was Duran working on this winter? I have to believe it was on his approach as a lead-off hitter. Thinking of him at #9, followed by Verdugo at lead-off, is intriguing. That combo could make the bottom of the line-up feel very different from what it has been in recent years when/if Duran gets his chance. He is an exciting player.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 18, 2021 9:06:46 GMT -5
wondering why everyone is so concerned about his power ? his best tool is his speed. If that translates into good outfield play that is a first team regular. If he hit 15 homeruns, that is good enough for me. Steal 30 bases. We may have our own Brett Gardner (sorry, hate mentioning that name). Speed.....kills...... Because he didn't project to hit 15 home runs before. It was probably a 5-10 HR profile at best. He was in real danger of being, say, Dee Gordon-Strange in one of his bad years. You need to be careful with minor league slugging percentages for fast guys. By legging out extra bases they won't get in the majors, they can look like they're hitting for more power than they truly will be able to in the big leagues. Dee Gordon hit 18 homers in a 10 year career, not sure it is applicable. The larger point is I don't think he has to show that to be valuable. Even Ellsbury only had 1 prodigious power year. I am pretty high on his athleticism making a mark on the club.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 18, 2021 12:27:09 GMT -5
wondering why everyone is so concerned about his power ? his best tool is his speed. If that translates into good outfield play that is a first team regular. If he hit 15 homeruns, that is good enough for me. Steal 30 bases. We may have our own Brett Gardner (sorry, hate mentioning that name). Speed.....kills...... I think another point is that some are wondering if his batting stance change (intended to produce more power and get to balls on the inner half of the plate) will result in more swing-and-miss, lower BAs. So it's not necessarily that people are worried about the power in isolation....it's more that if his adjustments do change his approach and elevate his Ks, you would hope the tradeoff is an increase in power production. Now all that said, hopefully he's able to maintain his opposite field, line drive tendencies on balls middle-away, and learn to drive balls with authority middle-in without sacrificing much in the contact % department.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2021 22:05:32 GMT -5
Because he didn't project to hit 15 home runs before. It was probably a 5-10 HR profile at best. He was in real danger of being, say, Dee Gordon-Strange in one of his bad years. You need to be careful with minor league slugging percentages for fast guys. By legging out extra bases they won't get in the majors, they can look like they're hitting for more power than they truly will be able to in the big leagues. Dee Gordon hit 18 homers in a 10 year career, not sure it is applicable. The larger point is I don't think he has to show that to be valuable. Even Ellsbury only had 1 prodigious power year. I am pretty high on his athleticism making a mark on the club. The highest wRC+ for a MLB hitter in 2019 (using b/c last full year) with single-digit home runs is 98 - in other words, a shade below average. Next highest were 91 and 83, below average and well-below average. It is very hard to be an average MLB hitter with that little power. Even using your Ellsbury example, he was actually an above-average hitter using wRC+ (taking it literally as 101 = above average) in just 4 of his 8 MLB seasons with at least 500 PA. 2 of those were the two years he topped 10 home runs. Honestly, he wasn't nearly the offensive player many of us (raises hand) remember him as now that I look at the numbers. Early in his career he was slightly below average offensively, making up for it with his defense, then he had a four-year stretch where he was an MVP candidate in 2011, hurt for half of 2012, and very good in 2013 and 2014. Then he turned back into a pumpkin. EDIT: And fair point that DSG is a poor example. Will concede that one.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 22:24:22 GMT -5
Dee Gordon hit 18 homers in a 10 year career, not sure it is applicable. The larger point is I don't think he has to show that to be valuable. Even Ellsbury only had 1 prodigious power year. I am pretty high on his athleticism making a mark on the club. The highest wRC+ for a MLB hitter in 2019 (using b/c last full year) with single-digit home runs is 98 - in other words, a shade below average. Next highest were 91 and 83, below average and well-below average. It is very hard to be an average MLB hitter with that little power. Even using your Ellsbury example, he was actually an above-average hitter using wRC+ (taking it literally as 101 = above average) in just 4 of his 8 MLB seasons with at least 500 PA. 2 of those were the two years he topped 10 home runs. Honestly, he wasn't nearly the offensive player many of us (raises hand) remember him as now that I look at the numbers. Early in his career he was slightly below average offensively, making up for it with his defense, then he had a four-year stretch where he was an MVP candidate in 2011, hurt for half of 2012, and very good in 2013 and 2014. Then he turned back into a pumpkin. Dee Gordon may have only hit 18. But the one he hit on September 26 2016 is one of my favourite moments in all baseball history. Not because of its distance or meaning in the game but it’s meaning in life. An uncertain outcome, honouring a friend, bringing the Game to a level that we can all relate to. RIP 16. And thanx Dee Gordon Strange for giving us that great moment in human history.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 19, 2021 1:07:09 GMT -5
Dee Gordon hit 18 homers in a 10 year career, not sure it is applicable. The larger point is I don't think he has to show that to be valuable. Even Ellsbury only had 1 prodigious power year. I am pretty high on his athleticism making a mark on the club. The highest wRC+ for a MLB hitter in 2019 (using b/c last full year) with single-digit home runs is 98 - in other words, a shade below average. Next highest were 91 and 83, below average and well-below average. It is very hard to be an average MLB hitter with that little power. Even using your Ellsbury example, he was actually an above-average hitter using wRC+ (taking it literally as 101 = above average) in just 4 of his 8 MLB seasons with at least 500 PA. 2 of those were the two years he topped 10 home runs. Honestly, he wasn't nearly the offensive player many of us (raises hand) remember him as now that I look at the numbers. Early in his career he was slightly below average offensively, making up for it with his defense, then he had a four-year stretch where he was an MVP candidate in 2011, hurt for half of 2012, and very good in 2013 and 2014. Then he turned back into a pumpkin. EDIT: And fair point that DSG is a poor example. Will concede that one. Well the good news is that Keith Law says Duran is a 70 defender, so he doesn't need to be above average with the bat to add lots of value in CF.
Hang on, I'm picking up something in my earpiece...
(If only we could find a guy with amazing defense and good for a 90ish wRC+...)
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Feb 19, 2021 7:07:23 GMT -5
The highest wRC+ for a MLB hitter in 2019 (using b/c last full year) with single-digit home runs is 98 - in other words, a shade below average. Next highest were 91 and 83, below average and well-below average. It is very hard to be an average MLB hitter with that little power. Even using your Ellsbury example, he was actually an above-average hitter using wRC+ (taking it literally as 101 = above average) in just 4 of his 8 MLB seasons with at least 500 PA. 2 of those were the two years he topped 10 home runs. Honestly, he wasn't nearly the offensive player many of us (raises hand) remember him as now that I look at the numbers. Early in his career he was slightly below average offensively, making up for it with his defense, then he had a four-year stretch where he was an MVP candidate in 2011, hurt for half of 2012, and very good in 2013 and 2014. Then he turned back into a pumpkin. EDIT: And fair point that DSG is a poor example. Will concede that one. Well the good news is that Keith Law says Duran is a 70 defender, so he doesn't need to be above average with the bat to add lots of value in CF.
Hang on, I'm picking up something in my earpiece...
(If only we could find a guy with amazing defense and good for a 90ish wRC+...)
Maybe I'm not getting your earpiece joke, but Law says "Duran is a 70 runner who is a plus defender in center and might end up a 70 out there as well."
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 19, 2021 8:07:21 GMT -5
Well the good news is that Keith Law says Duran is a 70 defender, so he doesn't need to be above average with the bat to add lots of value in CF.
Hang on, I'm picking up something in my earpiece...
(If only we could find a guy with amazing defense and good for a 90ish wRC+...)
Maybe I'm not getting your earpiece joke, but Law says "Duran is a 70 runner who is a plus defender in center and might end up a 70 out there as well." I believe incandenza is poking fun at Law's take that Duran is a good defender already, because it contradicts with every other report.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 19, 2021 9:10:17 GMT -5
Well the good news is that Keith Law says Duran is a 70 defender, so he doesn't need to be above average with the bat to add lots of value in CF.
Hang on, I'm picking up something in my earpiece...
(If only we could find a guy with amazing defense and good for a 90ish wRC+...)
Is your earpiece picking up anything on contract terms? If not then any JBJ/Duran comparisons are premature. Perhaps I was a little too opaque on this one...
I do admit that a 3+ year deal for JBJ probably doesn't make sense for the Red Sox, and it may well be that he wasn't signable for less than that. (Even if he does sign for less than that in the end, he might not have been willing to at the point when Bloom had to go forward with a plan.) It is what it is.
At the same time, while I like what Bloom is doing overall, I'm not thrilled with how the outfield looks going into the season. In theory, there's enough flexibility to shuttle Cordero, Renfroe, and Kiké around so that they match up decently with most anyone; in practice, injuries and guys needing days off and so on means the match ups will probably be sub-optimal much of the time, and then we're stuck watching Renfroe face righties with his 31% K rate and 87 wRC+ against them or something.
But then if the idea is to bank on Duran taking over by mid-season, it could work out really nicely, and I hope it does... I'm just not ready to pencil him in as the CF of the future when his defense is still iffy, his power remains a hypothesis, and the excitement about him leans heavily on his performance in some not-games at the alternate site. 1-2 more years of JBJ would have provided a nice hedge for the team. C'est la vie.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 20, 2021 14:36:36 GMT -5
theathletic.com/2394456/2021/02/19/gammons-jarren-duran-red-sox/?source=weeklyemailsnippet from Gammons "Bradley is a significant loss. In Hall of Famer Ken Harrelson’s first year broadcasting, 1975, he talked about how that team won the pennant because of Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans in center and right. In 50 years covering the team, I’ve come to appreciate that center and right, with all their walls and nooks and crannies, are exceptionally difficult to play. Especially right. Go back through the last 45 years: When the Red Sox have been really good, they’ve been exceptional in center and right. 1975 and 1978: Lynn and Evans. 1986: Dave Henderson and Evans. 2003-4: Johnny Damon and a Trot Nixon-Gabe Kapler combo. 2007: Ellsbury and J.D. Drew. 2013: Ellsbury and Shane Victorino, who was sensational. 2018: Bradley and Betts, the best of all. Right now, the plan is to have Alex Verdugo in center and a lot of Hunter Renfroe in right. Verdugo played all the angles of that right field exceptionally in the 60-game season, so if, in time, Duran is in center and Verdugo goes back to the corner, it may work out well."
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