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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 24, 2023 7:36:11 GMT -5
His bat is only a part of his problem. Can he play acceptable defense in CF? Doesn't look like he's playing any other position at this point.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 24, 2023 8:16:55 GMT -5
His bat is only a part of his problem. Can he play acceptable defense in CF? Doesn't look like he's playing any other position at this point.For the Red Sox probably not, LF is seemingly/hopefully going to be locked down by Yoshida the next 5 years. If he can't play a serviceable CF, I don't really want him in RF at home in Fenway since it's arguably just as important as CF. He's obviously got some room to grow as a defender, who knows maybe something will click and he can at least be roughly league average in CF. That being said hopefully I'm wrong but ultimately I don't think he's a part of the future for the Sox. I do see a scenario where he ends up on a rebuilding team who can give him everyday ABs and live with some growing pains defensively and he puts up some 2+ WAR seasons for cheap and we look back and say dang why didn't he do that here? They're in a bit of a tough spot with Duran but since he still has options left I get keeping him around in the minors as OF emergency depth and hopefully his defense takes a step forward. Otherwise if it really doesn't after this season, I'd probably try and trade him if I was them or just non-tender him. I'm okay with him on the 40 man since I do see some potential left but another year of just kind of floundering and not developing much probably zaps that potential. Just my two cents on him, hopefully he shows something this year though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 24, 2023 10:26:31 GMT -5
His bat is only a part of his problem. Can he play acceptable defense in CF? Doesn't look like he's playing any other position at this point.For the Red Sox probably not, LF is seemingly/hopefully going to be locked down by Yoshida the next 5 years. If he can't play a serviceable CF, I don't really want him in RF at home in Fenway since it's arguably just as important as CF. He's obviously got some room to grow as a defender, who knows maybe something will click and he can at least be roughly league average in CF. That being said hopefully I'm wrong but ultimately I don't think he's a part of the future for the Sox. I do see a scenario where he ends up on a rebuilding team who can give him everyday ABs and live with some growing pains defensively and he puts up some 2+ WAR seasons for cheap and we look back and say dang why didn't he do that here? They're in a bit of a tough spot with Duran but since he still has options left I get keeping him around in the minors as OF emergency depth and hopefully his defense takes a step forward. Otherwise if it really doesn't after this season, I'd probably try and trade him if I was them or just non-tender him. I'm okay with him on the 40 man since I do see some potential left but another year of just kind of floundering and not developing much probably zaps that potential. Just my two cents on him, hopefully he shows something this year though. Yeah with Yoshida and Verdugo for the next two years it's tough to find a great fit for Duran on the roster, plus there's Rafaela coming up who at least I personally am more a believer in. If he really breaks out offensively and can play decent defense maybe they trade Verdugo? Or trade Duran himself and get something back, but without an injury it's hard to see where sufficient playing time comes from to make that work, unless he really makes strides defensively and they can get him some run in CF.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 26, 2023 10:15:29 GMT -5
So Jarren Duran has looked incredible since his call up. It has only been 36 plate appearances but he's hitting .387/.417/.645 with a 8.3% bb rate and 30.6% k rate. The K rate is a little concerning but I don't see a ton of swing and miss coming from him so maybe that will go down over time. Most importantly to me is he is smoking the ball: average exit velo is 95.5 mph, the highest on the team, a .421 xWOBA, the second highest behind Duvall, and 13.9% of his plate appearances have resulted in a barrel, again the second highest behind Duvall. So while it's a tiny sample size none of it is a fluke.
There isn't a ton of data yet on his defense but he has looked much, much better with his routes out in CF. I don't think I can understate what a big development this would be. The outfield has been an area of weakness for the Red Sox ever since Mookie left imo and Duran becoming a solid major league player would go a long way to helping that. There was a bunch of talk about trading for an OF in the offseason but the best case scenario for the Sox was one of Verdugo or Duran taking a step forward in their development, and so far both of those things have happened.
This is one of the best storylines for me this year and one that I am watching closely. Really hope Duran can keep it up. The shine fell off of him the last few years but he was a good prospect and the team could really use his athleticism.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 2, 2023 12:52:27 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 2, 2023 13:11:59 GMT -5
More Statcast data trickling in: 90th percentile sprint speed and 84th in OAA.
His full season ZiPS projection now sits at 3 WAR in 110 games, which would make him one of the top 35 outfielders in baseball, tied with Trent Grisham (in 37 fewer games), and ahead of guys like Masa, Daulton Varsho, Benintendi, Schwarber, Kiké, Giancarlo Stanton, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy.
Trying to contain myself here but it's getting difficult...we may have found our CF for the next 3-4 years.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 13:36:07 GMT -5
If Jarren Duran turns out to be a well above average defender I am simply going to refuse to have an opinion about any young player ever again.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 2, 2023 13:52:38 GMT -5
The defense, BABIP, and very low GB% compared to his history all make me want to give it a lot more than 14 games before I make any definitive statements regarding Duran’s future. Obviously I want this version of Duran forever, but this is still a small, albeit impressive, sample.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 2, 2023 14:09:08 GMT -5
His 24.6% K% (which is an improvement over 28.3% last year) and .500 BABIP give me pause, but here are some more reasons for optimism:
Year EV MaxEV LAngle Barrel% HHit% 2021 89.6 108.2 7.8 4.4% 39.7% 2022 89.3 110.4 7.6 7.7% 37.3% 2023 91.6 111.6 15.5 12.5% 52.5%
It's a small sample, but he's crushing the ball. That Hard Hit% would place him 19th in MLB (if he qualified), right behind Mike Trout.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 2, 2023 14:12:31 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on May 2, 2023 14:52:40 GMT -5
Duran is looking like a multi-year starter in the league. Under control through 2028. If he can hit .260/.320/.430 and play CF defense that's a little below average, then that is a pretty serious asset.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 2, 2023 15:00:03 GMT -5
I will definitely live with eating crow (I wanted him traded when he was in the minors rising up top 100 prospects list) if he can be an above replacement level player over the next few years.
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Post by bettsonmookie on May 3, 2023 9:27:02 GMT -5
Hard to recall a single prospect with a wider range of outcomes than Duran. Ceiling incredibly high. Floor can be painfully low. Exciting to dream on him trending closer and closer to his ceiling. Would be a huge long-term boost.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 3, 2023 9:35:07 GMT -5
How real is this breakout he's having? Who knows but it sure is fun to watch either way. Going into the season this was a sort of make or break type of year for Duran at least in terms of his long term outlook in Boston. He's gone from a potential change of scenery, maybe even DFA candidate with a poor showing back to a potential every day cog. I'd say at the very least he offers good to great value as an OF bench piece for the next couple years while he's cheap and obviously his ceiling is way higher than that but I don't want to get ahead of myself from an excellent few weeks stretch.
Players like that are how teams build good payroll flexibility, it's a great bonus to be able to have a guy like Duran making peanuts rather than having to go out and acquire an older 4th OFer making more money.
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Post by patford on May 3, 2023 9:58:57 GMT -5
If Jarren Duran turns out to be a well above average defender I am simply going to refuse to have an opinion about any young player ever again. Yeah. I never completely gave up on him being able to hit but I absolutely felt the ship had sailed on him ever being good in CF and thought he was better suited to LF or even being tried at 2B. It's hard to understand how he made such strides in one off season while apparently showing little improvement in CF over a period of years.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on May 3, 2023 10:20:57 GMT -5
How real is this breakout he's having? Who knows but it sure is fun to watch either way. Going into the season this was a sort of make or break type of year for Duran at least in terms of his long term outlook in Boston. He's gone from a potential change of scenery, maybe even DFA candidate with a poor showing back to a potential every day cog. I'd say at the very least he offers good to great value as an OF bench piece for the next couple years while he's cheap and obviously his ceiling is way higher than that but I don't want to get ahead of myself from an excellent few weeks stretch. Players like that are how teams build good payroll flexibility, it's a great bonus to be able to have a guy like Duran making peanuts rather than having to go out and acquire an older 4th OFer making more money. I'm living in the moment right now and reveling. I won't really know what Duran is until September, but his defense has improved so as long as he doesn't recede there I feel a lot better than I did before ST with him. I'm going to enjoy this moment and eat my crow on him.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 3, 2023 10:41:46 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything.
The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2023 11:02:05 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. There are only 97 qualified hitters in baseball above 105 wRC+ though. If you expand down to 50 PA (which you have to do in order to include him), there are a few more. It strikes me as a noise thing with a sample this small. My guess is he'll stop getting challenged as much if he keeps this up and the walk rate will go up. His chase rate was fine in AAA (25%) and it's about the same in MLB (27.6%), so he's not being overly aggressive. The cause seems to be that pitchers aren't walking him, not that he isn't walking, if that makes sense.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 3, 2023 11:10:47 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. There are only 97 qualified hitters in baseball above 105 wRC+ though. If you expand down to 50 PA (which you have to do in order to include him), there are a few more. It strikes me as a noise thing with a sample this small. My guess is he'll stop getting challenged as much if he keeps this up and the walk rate will go up. His chase rate was fine in AAA (25%) and it's about the same in MLB (27.6%), so he's not being overly aggressive. The cause seems to be that pitchers aren't walking him, not that he isn't walking, if that makes sense. I meant to say in 2022 - but your point stands, there were only 83 qualifying hitters above a 105 in 2022. Fair though, the BB rate should rise, the quality of contact and certainly the BABIP will fall and we'll see where he settles after that. My second paragraph was meant to say even if he only ends up at that 100-105 level, that's still really great news for the team (when combined with some defensive improvements) compared to how it felt things stood before the season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 11:24:25 GMT -5
If Jarren Duran turns out to be a well above average defender I am simply going to refuse to have an opinion about any young player ever again. He's in a 3-way tie for 4th in CF Success Rate Added among 34 qualifiers.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 3, 2023 12:33:09 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. The one red flag that stands out to me is his poor contact rate w/ fastballs. Really need to see he how he adjusts over the next month or two to see if he's the real deal.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 3, 2023 20:33:54 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. There are only 97 qualified hitters in baseball above 105 wRC+ though. If you expand down to 50 PA (which you have to do in order to include him), there are a few more. It strikes me as a noise thing with a sample this small. My guess is he'll stop getting challenged as much if he keeps this up and the walk rate will go up. His chase rate was fine in AAA (25%) and it's about the same in MLB (27.6%), so he's not being overly aggressive. The cause seems to be that pitchers aren't walking him, not that he isn't walking, if that makes sense. Immediate proof of how way-too-early I was here, Duran's BB rate is up to 8.1% now.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 4, 2023 6:35:56 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. Walk rate got helped last night! Youk with the Hungry like the wolf shoutout last night
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Post by e on May 4, 2023 11:13:34 GMT -5
Still super early, but Duran's defense is looking really good right now.
Cool small sample size stat I found:
The league leader in Jump according to Baseball Savant is Kevin Pillar with 4.1 Feet vs Average. He's recorded that on 7 2+ Star play opportunities.
Duran does not qualify yet because he only has 5 opportunities, but in those opportunities he's recorded a Jump of 5.5 Feet vs Average. Nearly a foot and a half higher than the current league leader.
I'm sure this number will go down but its clear his defense has had some type of substantial improvement.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 4, 2023 20:49:33 GMT -5
Love love love how he is playing. In the 7th, making solid 0-2 contact for a base hit, then easy steal of 2nd followed by an extra base on the error. That's as good a sequence as I can think of developmentally.
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