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8/17-8/19 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by kmann on Aug 18, 2018 8:32:32 GMT -5
I have been wondering about this for some time now. Is this true, 5 more years of control? I know Brasier does not have 6 years of MLB experience, but I thought that once the Angels (who had control over Brasier) elected to not offer Brasier a contract, he immediately became a free agent. And since the Sox signed Brasier to a 1-year deal, my understanding is that he is a FA after this season. Can someone please clarify for me how this all works? Much appreciated. if it is true that the Sox control Brasier for 5 more years, he is my opinion a savior and a candidate to slip into the closer's role if Kimbrel does not sign. His one year contract was a minor league contract. As soon as the Sox put him on the forty man they essentially took over the control the Angels had. His one year contract was a minor league contract. As soon as the Sox put him on the forty man they essentially took over the control the Angels had. I haven't counted but I'm guessing he won't have a year service time this year which means six more years after this, not five. Thanks very much. Great news! IMO, not enough is being said about what an unbelievable find and sign by the Sox. Given the free agencies of Sale, Porcello, X and JD (assuming he opts out) after 2019, and Betts and JBJ after 2020, I would lean toward letting Kimbrel go, giving the closer role to Brasier, and looking for some low cost bullpen depth in the offseason to replace Brasier's current role.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2018 8:50:38 GMT -5
You can see more and more the play of Swihart at Catcher is making the FO smart to not trade him. Especially when everyone in the media I.e. Merloni expected it to happen. Swihart is a legit catcher. The Sox next year have a good problem. But Swihart deserves more playing time as long as he keeps improving or he deserves to be on another team. This year was understandable. We will see. A lot of people, excluding media members, too, expected Swihart to be DFAd. I don't think it was unreasonable for people to think that. Honestly, if not for the injury to Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart probably wouldn't be on this team or else if he was he'd be rotting away on the bench like he was doing previously. I've always hoped Swihart would get the chance to catch. That chance wouldn't have happened with Vazquez getting injured. You hate to say it's a blessing in disguise, but it wound up being one because the Sox had to utilize Swihart behind the plate, where his bat actually does play up. Being a 25th player is a waste of his talents. Especially considering he was on a pace for barely 100 ABs for the longest time. The Red Sox actually chose Vazquez over Swihart. He's the one they sent Swihart down to Pawtucket so he could play everyday, and Vazquez is the guy who got the contract, I believe $8 million/year. But this year Vazquez's defense went backwards and his offense has been minimal, a lot of soft contact. This offseason I would hope the Sox can get something of value for a cost controlled catcher. Leon has passed Vazquez as their go-to catcher so Swihart still has another mountain to climb, but it wouldn't be unbelievable in the near future to see Leon's bat really fall off and Swihart to become the number 1 option. But at the time Merloni and a lot of guys were speculating that Swihart would be released, it was reasonable to think so. Can't imagine too many thought Hanley would get released like he did, going from batting 3rd to being DFA, but his contract kind of dictated it along with his middling performance. I'm glad Swihart is still around and I still believe Tek is correct, that there's an all-star catcher in there, but if not for Vazquez's injury we wouldn't know and we'd be stuck with a guy getting a few ABs a week at most while rotting away on the bench, and if you put Swihart at other positions, his bat really doesn't play. Put him behind the plate with that bat of his and his bat stands out because the average catcher hits terribly.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 18, 2018 8:50:47 GMT -5
I have been wondering about this for some time now. Is this true, 5 more years of control? I know Brasier does not have 6 years of MLB experience, but I thought that once the Angels (who had control over Brasier) elected to not offer Brasier a contract, he immediately became a free agent. And since the Sox signed Brasier to a 1-year deal, my understanding is that he is a FA after this season. Can someone please clarify for me how this all works? Much appreciated. if it is true that the Sox control Brasier for 5 more years, he is my opinion a savior and a candidate to slip into the closer's role if Kimbrel does not sign. His one year contract was a minor league contract. As soon as the Sox put him on the forty man they essentially took over the control the Angels had. His one year contract was a minor league contract. As soon as the Sox put him on the forty man they essentially took over the control the Angels had. I haven't counted but I'm guessing he won't have a year service time this year which means six more years after this, not five. Baseball-reference has him at 1.041 years of mlb service time as of 1/1/18. So I believe there will be five more years of control after this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2018 9:03:58 GMT -5
His one year contract was a minor league contract. As soon as the Sox put him on the forty man they essentially took over the control the Angels had. I haven't counted but I'm guessing he won't have a year service time this year which means six more years after this, not five. Baseball-reference has him at 1.041 years of mlb service time as of 1/1/18. So I believe there will be five more years of control after this year. Then he must have been on the 40 man of the Angels when he missed a year in 2014 (TJ ?). He only appeared in MLB 7 games at the end of 2013. Thanks for the info.
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2018 9:05:00 GMT -5
Maybe we need to pump the brakes a touch on Brasier. I like him, but he’s thrown 26 major-league innings and is 31-years old. I don’t think his long term control is a pressing matter. I just hope he keeps giving value this season. Kelly has had dominant streaks, too.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 18, 2018 9:22:19 GMT -5
You can see more and more the play of Swihart at Catcher is making the FO smart to not trade him. Especially when everyone in the media I.e. Merloni expected it to happen. Swihart is a legit catcher. The Sox next year have a good problem. But Swihart deserves more playing time as long as he keeps improving or he deserves to be on another team. This year was understandable. We will see. A lot of people, excluding media members, too, expected Swihart to be DFAd. I don't think it was unreasonable for people to think that. Honestly, if not for the injury to Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart probably wouldn't be on this team or else if he was he'd be rotting away on the bench like he was doing previously. I've always hoped Swihart would get the chance to catch. That chance wouldn't have happened with Vazquez getting injured. You hate to say it's a blessing in disguise, but it wound up being one because the Sox had to utilize Swihart behind the plate, where his bat actually does play up. Being a 25th player is a waste of his talents. Especially considering he was on a pace for barely 100 ABs for the longest time. The Red Sox actually chose Vazquez over Swihart. He's the one they sent Swihart down to Pawtucket so he could play everyday, and Vazquez is the guy who got the contract, I believe $8 million/year. But this year Vazquez's defense went backwards and his offense has been minimal, a lot of soft contact. This offseason I would hope the Sox can get something of value for a cost controlled catcher. Leon has passed Vazquez as their go-to catcher so Swihart still has another mountain to climb, but it wouldn't be unbelievable in the near future to see Leon's bat really fall off and Swihart to become the number 1 option. But at the time Merloni and a lot of guys were speculating that Swihart would be released, it was reasonable to think so. Can't imagine too many thought Hanley would get released like he did, going from batting 3rd to being DFA, but his contract kind of dictated it along with his middling performance. I'm glad Swihart is still around and I still believe Tek is correct, that there's an all-star catcher in there, but if not for Vazquez's injury we wouldn't know and we'd be stuck with a guy getting a few ABs a week at most while rotting away on the bench, and if you put Swihart at other positions, his bat really doesn't play. Put him behind the plate with that bat of his and his bat stands out because the average catcher hits terribly. And yet, this site still has the 2019 projected Major League roster with Vazquez as the starting C, Leon as the backup, and Swihart as trade bait. Time for a revision?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 18, 2018 11:04:09 GMT -5
You can see more and more the play of Swihart at Catcher is making the FO smart to not trade him. Especially when everyone in the media I.e. Merloni expected it to happen. Swihart is a legit catcher. The Sox next year have a good problem. But Swihart deserves more playing time as long as he keeps improving or he deserves to be on another team. This year was understandable. We will see. A lot of people, excluding media members, too, expected Swihart to be DFAd. I don't think it was unreasonable for people to think that. Honestly, if not for the injury to Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart probably wouldn't be on this team or else if he was he'd be rotting away on the bench like he was doing previously. I've always hoped Swihart would get the chance to catch. That chance wouldn't have happened with Vazquez getting injured. You hate to say it's a blessing in disguise, but it wound up being one because the Sox had to utilize Swihart behind the plate, where his bat actually does play up. Being a 25th player is a waste of his talents. Especially considering he was on a pace for barely 100 ABs for the longest time. The Red Sox actually chose Vazquez over Swihart. He's the one they sent Swihart down to Pawtucket so he could play everyday, and Vazquez is the guy who got the contract, I believe $8 million/year. But this year Vazquez's defense went backwards and his offense has been minimal, a lot of soft contact. This offseason I would hope the Sox can get something of value for a cost controlled catcher. Leon has passed Vazquez as their go-to catcher so Swihart still has another mountain to climb, but it wouldn't be unbelievable in the near future to see Leon's bat really fall off and Swihart to become the number 1 option. But at the time Merloni and a lot of guys were speculating that Swihart would be released, it was reasonable to think so. Can't imagine too many thought Hanley would get released like he did, going from batting 3rd to being DFA, but his contract kind of dictated it along with his middling performance. I'm glad Swihart is still around and I still believe Tek is correct, that there's an all-star catcher in there, but if not for Vazquez's injury we wouldn't know and we'd be stuck with a guy getting a few ABs a week at most while rotting away on the bench, and if you put Swihart at other positions, his bat really doesn't play. Put him behind the plate with that bat of his and his bat stands out because the average catcher hits terribly. Vazquez' AAV on his contract is $3.75M, not $8M (4 years, $15M plus a $7M option in 2022). They should be able to trade him if they want.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,518
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Post by radiohix on Aug 18, 2018 11:50:02 GMT -5
We're not appreciating Jackie Bradley Jr enough... Dude's is taking CF defense to an art form.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2018 12:11:40 GMT -5
I think it was just a few weeks ago that I had Leon as the guy you traded this winter. Now I have him as the one guy you definitely keep.
I have a methodology for assessing catcher's ERA (relative to teammates) as best as can be simply done (pitcher-by-pitcher and look at components separately). I gotta do that now with this trio. If Leon's not as good a pitch-caller as he seems, I may change my mind again, but right now I'm all in on the idea that he's to pitch-calling what Lisa Fischer is to singing (gotta nominate someone with Aretha gone; if you haven't seen 20 Feet From Stardom, rent it now).
It's not outside the realm of possibility that Swihart restores all of his former trade value by the end of the year, and I think he's already a good way there. It's only 43 PA, but he's .325 / .372 / .500 since July 6. He's doing it in MLB. And that trade value was serious. All it takes is two teams that think he's the answer.
I used to think that trading Swihart and keeping CV was a no-brainer, because defense is undervalued and not everyone was attending to pitch-framing, while what Swihart brought to the table was upfront. Now I think it's a very tough decision, and it's Leon who seems to have the major hidden value. If you forced me, I'd trade CV, who's a known quantity with both offensive and defensive upside.
Now, this is exciting, because I haven't looked at this data since early in the year. Among the 60 catchers who have caught the most pitches, here are some ranks in Framing Runs per pitch according to BP:
11 Sandy Leon 15 Christian Vazquez 18 Blake Swihart if he qualified
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2018 12:41:04 GMT -5
The other thing I want to (and might) do this weekend is automate my spreadsheet that adjusts xwOBA from Baseball Savant with Cent% from FanGraphs and Opponent Batter Quality from BP. I need a table that translates names when they differ from one website to the other and I need to automatically create weighted park adjustments for guys who have pitched with multiple teams.
And the reason why I want to do this is that, of the 550 pitchers who have faced 50 or more batters, Ryan Brasier ranks 19th in unadjusted xwOBA, between Jeremy Jeffress and Jacob deGrom.
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2018 12:57:48 GMT -5
Will be at tonight’s game. Hoping the weather holds.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 18, 2018 13:19:43 GMT -5
That's great. I think there is an argument that Kiermaier is a better defensive CF than Bradley. I think the argument is that he has more room to chase more balls down in Tampa than JBJ can in Fenway. I don't think that the advanced defensive metrics can overcome a lack of opportunities because of all those doubles off the Monster being caught for outs in Tampa. The monster is 379 feet in left center which is virtually the same as in Tampa. It’s most likely a lot harder to hit a home run to left center in Fenway than almost any other park and I don’t think it affects the size of center field much at all. The monster has a big affect to left and towards the line but not the other way.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 18, 2018 13:26:53 GMT -5
I think the argument is that he has more room to chase more balls down in Tampa than JBJ can in Fenway. I don't think that the advanced defensive metrics can overcome a lack of opportunities because of all those doubles off the Monster being caught for outs in Tampa. The monster is 379 feet in left center which is virtually the same as in Tampa. It’s most likely a lot harder to hit a home run to left center in Fenway than almost any other park and I don’t think it affects the size of center field much at all. The monster has a big affect to left and towards the line but not the other way. Just look at the parks, deep center at Fenway is this tiny little area, deep center at the Trop is this huge area. You have a ton more space to make plays at the Trop as a CF than at Fenway. Its not even close frankly.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 18, 2018 13:28:17 GMT -5
Sale back on the DL... not good at all
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2018 13:33:49 GMT -5
Sale back on the DL... not good at all So hard to field a healthy complete team - hopefully ERod can move through his rehab quickly. Not good news at all on Sale, but important to get it right...right now. Hopefully more news to come on the move. Amazing - Kinsler ready, Devers DL. ERod nearing readiness, Sale DL. A team can never have too many useful, talented pieces. The logjams have a way of clearing out.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 18, 2018 13:35:44 GMT -5
The monster is 379 feet in left center which is virtually the same as in Tampa. It’s most likely a lot harder to hit a home run to left center in Fenway than almost any other park and I don’t think it affects the size of center field much at all. The monster has a big affect to left and towards the line but not the other way. Just look at the parks, deep center at Fenway is this tiny little area, deep center at the Trop is this huge area. You have a ton more space to make plays at the Trop as a CF than at Fenway. Its not even close frankly. ![](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180818/13f6f66a316213697945e75c60e3efe6.png)
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Aug 18, 2018 13:38:30 GMT -5
11:29 AM - 18 Aug 2018
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2018 13:38:49 GMT -5
Sale to DL is matched by Workman returning from Pawtucket.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Aug 18, 2018 13:40:52 GMT -5
I agree: 2nd time with SHOULDER inflammation ain't good:
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 18, 2018 13:41:52 GMT -5
WTF I really wanted to see him Sunday. No Sale and watch it'll rain, because that's all it does this Summer.
Why don't the Red Sox move a minor league team to Western Mass? We are the forgotten fans it seems. I can drive to Portland, Maine in the same time it takes me to drive to Boston.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Aug 18, 2018 13:42:18 GMT -5
Lets just HOPE ther being EXTRA careful with Sale, because of their big lead.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2018 13:42:35 GMT -5
So that means starts on Sun Aug 19 and Fri Aug 24..."bullpen" games with Velazquez starting and going limited innings? Would rather that than throw Pom out there.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 18, 2018 13:43:32 GMT -5
WTF I really wanted to see him Sunday. No Sale and watch it'll rain, because that's all it does this Summer. Why don't the Red Sox move a minor league team to Western Mass? We are the forgotten fans it seems. I can drive to Portland, Maine in the same time it takes me to drive to Boston. Did you miss they are moving to Worcester... i consider that Western Mass... ha
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2018 13:44:23 GMT -5
WTF I really wanted to see him Sunday. No Sale and watch it'll rain, because that's all it does this Summer. Why don't the Red Sox move a minor league team to Western Mass? We are the forgotten fans it seems. I can drive to Portland, Maine in the same time it takes me to drive to Boston. Your comment led me to check how many games have been rained out this year - was amazed to find only 2?! Seems like it has endlessly been raining everywhere...
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,444
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Post by ianrs on Aug 18, 2018 13:45:17 GMT -5
Lets just HOPE ther being EXTRA careful with Sale, because of their big lead. I think this is exactly it. This screams "we're in such a good position and we want to have Sale fresh for the playoffs." Cora is someone who thinks beyond the immediate future, and it shows. I think these are Patriots-esque DL stints/playing injuries, to be honest. Not only this, but it gives the Red Sox starters chances to compete for playoff starts.
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