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Red Sox vs. Astros 2018 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 2:23:22 GMT -5
We are going to need him one more time in this series. 4y/38? Do any of us want Kimbrel for 4 more years with a diminishing fastball in his 30's? |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 18, 2018 2:29:45 GMT -5
Just so everyone knows- Kimbrel is 4/4 in Save Opportunities this postseason. He's funny money. FTFY |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 3:01:10 GMT -5
Sox had 46 PA with RISP in the ALDS and have had 43 so far in the ALCS.
.400 / .478 / .629 .333 / .488 / .636.
Seriously. The OBP and SA are actually as close as you can come to being identical, given the different number of PA.
In the ALDS, they reached base 22 times and had 22 TB. In the CS so far, they've reached base 21 times and have 21 TB.
This is carrying over from the regular season. I didn't think then that it was random, nor did I think it was much "clutch." I think it's largely knowing how each opposing pitcher narrows their repertoire in various RISP situations, i.e., with either a runner on 3B where pitchers shy away from throwing breaking pitches, and/or first base open where they try more to get hitters to chase. I do think that knowing you have that advantage gives you a psychological edge in execution.
It's a reason why a good deal of their win efficiency (Wins - Pyth Wins) was for real, and one of the two reasons why they should have been favorites despite the Astros' edge in raw numbers.
(The other, even bigger reason is that they hit good pitching well. More on that tomorrow, maybe.)
Meanwhile, a final tidbit: in this series, with 2 outs and RISP they're 7/15, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 HBP (.467 / .600 / 1.000).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 3:27:01 GMT -5
Only six teams in history have come back from a 3-1 deficit without home field advantage. I've put the W / Pyth W in parentheses for each team.
The 1958 Yankees (92 / 98) over the Braves (92 / 92).
The 1968 Tigers (103 / 103) over the Cardinals (97 / 96)
The 1979 Pirates (98 / 95) over the Orioles (102 / 98). The 2003 Marlins (91 / 87) over the Cubs (88 / 85). The 2004 Red Sox (98 / 96) over the Yankees (101 / 89). The 2016 Cubs (103 / 107) over the Indians (94 / 91).
It's rather amazing that the last two times, famous post-season droughts were broken, Theo Epstein was the architect of both winning teams, and Terry Francona managed first the winner and then the loser.
What's even freakier is that the feat has only been accomplished five times by a team with home field advantage:
1985 Royals (91 / 86) over Cardinals (101 / 100)
1986 Red Sox (95 / 90) over Angels (92 / 91)
1996 Braves (96 / 94) over Cardinals (88 / 86)
2007 Red Sox (96 / 101) over Indians (96 / 91)
2012 Giants (94 / 88) over Cardinals (88 / 93)
Perhaps the freakiest thing is that either the Red Sox or Cardinals have been involved a majority of the time, and the Sox are 3-0 and the cardinals 0-4. If the Cardinals ever get a 3-1 lead in the WS over the Sox, we'll all know what to expect.
Of the 11 teams that did this, 6 had an edge in regular season wins and 2 were tied, while 7 had an edge in Pyth wins. So neither seems to matter more than the other.
Only team to win game 1, lose 3 straight including 2 at home, then win 3 straight: the Marlins.
The '96 Braves and '07 Red Sox also turned around a 3 game losing streak, but with 2 of the three losses on the road.
Or to put it another way: the only team in MLB history to have a 3-1 series edge, a 3-game win streak, and home field advantage, and then lose was the infamous '03 Cubs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2018 3:41:45 GMT -5
Sean McAdam @sean_McAdam
Post-game exchange of the night:
Reporter to Kimbrel: "Do you have a sense of what you were missing?"
Kimbrel to reporter: "The plate.''
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 3:55:36 GMT -5
Matt Barnes has pitched three days in a row three times in his career, including twice this year, when he totaled 47 and then 51 pitches. He has 21 so far, so he could go as many as 2 IP. More likely, he could be asked to get a 4 or 5 out save if needed (although obviously they'd prefer 3).
Joe Kelly has never done it, so he probably joins Kimbrel an Brasier as unavailable. Price, E-Rod, Workman, Hembree, and Barnes should be enough innings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2018 4:08:57 GMT -5
Win or lose tonight, if the Astros burn up Verlander and we burn up all those pitchers, it only increases the probability of going to the World Series. It's not going to be easy for the Astros to win two at Fenway, especially if Verlander doesn't start one of those games.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 4:09:39 GMT -5
ALCS WPA so far, obviously excluding defense (Benny's catch may have been worth about .500). Relievers not adjusted for leverage.
And of course WPA for closers is inherently flawed.
J Bradley Jr. .682
R Brasier .386
M Barnes .375
R Devers .202
M Moreland .193
X Bogaerts .139
C Kimbrel .131
N Eovaldi .114
E Nunez .099
M Betts .081
S Pearce . 076
H Hembree .003
C Sale -.010
S Leon -.029
B Holt -.042
E Rodriguez -.062
J Martinez -.073
A Benintendi -.083
D Price -.168
B Workman -.169
C Vazquez -.184
R Porcello -.199
J Kelly -.208
I Kinsler -.254
JBJ's post-season so far is a good argument for ignoring BA and hit totals. He has 5 hits in 8 games and a .208 BA. He also has a .387 OBP, a .542 SA, and leads the team in WPA by a comfortable margin.
And now I have to really get to bed!
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 18, 2018 4:53:31 GMT -5
Only six teams in history have come back from a 3-1 deficit without home field advantage. I've put the W / Pyth W in parentheses for each team.
The 1958 Yankees (92 / 98) over the Braves (92 / 92).
The 1968 Tigers (103 / 103) over the Cardinals (97 / 96)
The 1979 Pirates (98 / 95) over the Orioles (102 / 98). The 2003 Marlins (91 / 87) over the Cubs (88 / 85). The 2004 Red Sox (98 / 96) over the Yankees (101 / 89). The 2016 Cubs (103 / 107) over the Indians (94 / 91). It's rather amazing that the last two times, famous post-season droughts were broken, Theo Epstein was the architect of both winning teams, and Terry Francona managed first the winner and then the loser. What's even freakier is that the feat has only been accomplished five times by a team with home field advantage: 1985 Royals (91 / 86) over Cardinals (101 / 100)
1986 Red Sox (95 / 90) over Angels (92 / 91)
1996 Braves (96 / 94) over Cardinals (88 / 86)
2007 Red Sox (96 / 101) over Indians (96 / 91)
2012 Giants (94 / 88) over Cardinals (88 / 93)
Perhaps the freakiest thing is that either the Red Sox or Cardinals have been involved a majority of the time, and the Sox are 3-0 and the cardinals 0-4. If the Cardinals ever get a 3-1 lead in the WS over the Sox, we'll all know what to expect.
Of the 11 teams that did this, 6 had an edge in regular season wins and 2 were tied, while 7 had an edge in Pyth wins. So neither seems to matter more than the other.
But you have to admit that the CIRCUMSTANCES of this particular 3-1 lead have the Astros in a pretty good (relatively speaking) position to pull this off. For those who wanted the Sox to do what they had to do to win tonight's game, you got what you wished for. But the Sox are left with NOTHING but question marks or worse on the mound now and Houston has the best staff in baseball with nobody overly stressed. We'll see what happens. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 5:18:46 GMT -5
ESPN "Fan Interference denies Altuve of possible HR" why not "denies Mookie Betts of spectacular catch"? It's more than "why not." It's a headline that makes zero sense. "Controversial Interference Call Denies Altuve of Possible HR" would be accurate. You'd have to be a moron to think that Mookie doesn't catch that if the fans aren't in his way.
ESPN recently got rid of all comments on their stories. I think I'd punt them as my source for baseball news if it weren't for the fact that I know Christina Kahrl a bit and have some thoughts about writing for them.
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Post by pedey on Oct 18, 2018 5:34:05 GMT -5
It seems like everyone keeps excusing Kimbrel for his poor performance because he gets fortunate and somehow the Sox manage to win.
Kimbrel hasn't been pitched with a one run lead yet this postseason. And he has yet to have an outing without allowing an earned run.
His stats this postseason:
8.44 ERA, 5 BB, 5 HBP, in 5.1 innings
Yet he has earned a save every time he has pitched
Can he really be relied on when the season is on the line and he is only given a 1 run lead?
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 18, 2018 5:38:15 GMT -5
I like the Red Sox chances to win 1 of the next 3 games. Cora is outmanaging Hinch by a large margin. The vaunted Astros’ bullpen has been taken to the woodshed the last 3 games. Plus, JD Martinez is due for a breakout game. I hope the Red Sox close it out tonight, however I would not be terribly disappointed if it goes to Game 6 as I have a ticket for it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2018 5:54:56 GMT -5
OK, now I'm actually going to bed, after reading the whole game thread. Couldn't help myself, and it was worth it!
Thought: Cora actually managed that game really well. There's way more left for tomorrow than you'd think. Barnes for one batter to bail out a gassed Brasier, and now available for at least an inning and as many as two, for instance. He got four more outs from Porcello than he would have if it weren't for Sale's illness, and if it weren't for the world's cheapest HR by Kemp (which he didn't over-react to), they would have been scoreless.
In the meantime, I just discovered that the team had an insane GB pitcher / FB pitcher split, favoring the latter. Verlander was the second most extreme FB pitcher in MLB this year. He actually had 8 GB vs 5 FB in game 1, which had to be a game plan, and now that we've seen it I expect an adjustment. I'm calling 3 runs off of him and 4 wouldn't surprise me.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 6:13:30 GMT -5
It seems like everyone keeps excusing Kimbrel for his poor performance because he gets fortunate and somehow the Sox manage to win. Kimbrel hasn't been pitched with a one run lead yet this postseason. And he has yet to have an outing without allowing an earned run. His stats this postseason: 8.44 ERA, 5 BB, 5 HBP, in 5.1 innings Yet he has earned a save every time he has pitched Can he really be relied on when the season is on the line and he is only given a 1 run lead? Lol no one is excusing anything. We are watching with one eye on the the TV trying to look away. We also know the reality is that the Sox will rely on him in a one run lead in the 9th through hell or high water. |
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Post by awall on Oct 18, 2018 6:59:06 GMT -5
FYI, these games are far easier on the heart and far more entertaining if you have to get up at 5am, so you skip watching and just read this thread after seeing the score when you wake up. i don't think i would have survived last night.
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Post by awall on Oct 18, 2018 7:33:43 GMT -5
with regards to Kimbrel, let's pray they seal the deal tonight and he has a few days to work with someone looking at film to find whatever flaw has crept into his mechanics.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 7:56:13 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 8:00:53 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2018 8:02:44 GMT -5
Morning...took a long time to get to sleep-to bed happy, woke up happy.
Somewhere in the thread when we were behind I said we will look silly tomorrow when we come back and win.
I had no idea of the plot twists and angst between that statement and the final out.
One of the greatest...most continually stressful...games of my 51 years of watching this team. Our big stars all came up big, with bat and/or glove.
Great fun spending it here with all of you in our virtual sports pub!
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Post by bluechip on Oct 18, 2018 8:06:37 GMT -5
Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs wrote a good article breaking down the camera angles. He thinks Mookie’s arm was in play. But he also makes the below very valid point: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fan-interference-call-was-probably-good/Houston should probably just put a better buffer in place between fans and crowd (or have taller fences) in their tiny bandbox. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2018 8:08:48 GMT -5
So tonight ...available...Price, Erod, Hembree, Workman, Barnes, Kelly, with 2 of these fresh
Unavailable...Porcello, Sale, Eovaldi, Kimbrel, Brasier
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Can they squeeze more from Brasier?
..Kimbrel (gulp)?
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 18, 2018 8:15:55 GMT -5
Remember when there were questions of whether this thread would beat 100 pages of yankees series? We are at 121 through the same 4 games.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 18, 2018 8:22:01 GMT -5
Ok someone help me out here:  I want to know how people look at this pic and say that Mookie is in the stands and the fans are not reaching out. 1. Fan in orange is bent forward at the waist like you would be if you were standing against a wall leaning over it. Also, his arms are stretched out in front of him. 2. Fan on the right is holding the wall with one hand (not pictured but you can see in other shots) and leaning forward in front of that hand. 3. Mookie is stretched back but only a bit and he’s not to the wall yet. In video he doesnt make contact with the wall until after the fan touches him. This notion he was way back into the stands is bunk. Worst case is you can’t tell either way but there’s more evidence fans are reaching forward than other way around. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2018 8:44:15 GMT -5
If the call on the field had been a home run, I don’t think that gets overturned either. It’s a coin flip. We were fortunate the call on the field was in our favor. That’s my take.
And as some have pointed out, this is such an unnecessary controversy the MLB finds itself in. If you don’t want fans to interfere, don’t allow them to be able to reach into the field of play. Why is this still an issue after all these years? Those fans last night didn’t do anything that any of us on this forum wouldn’t have done. If you think you wouldn’t have attempted to catch a home run ball that is falling into your lap, you’re lying to yourself.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2018 8:52:48 GMT -5
If the call on the field had been a home run, I don’t think that gets overturned either. It’s a coin flip. We were fortunate the call on the field was in our favor. That’s my take. And as some have pointed out, this is such an unnecessary controversy the MLB finds itself in. If you don’t want fans to interfere, don’t allow them to be able to reach into the field of play. Why is this still an issue after all these years? Those fans last night didn’t do anything that any of us on this forum wouldn’t have done. If you think you wouldn’t have attempted to catch a home run ball that is falling into your lap, you’re lying to yourself. They also wouldn't likely have squeezed another inning out of Porcello or tried to get 6 outs from Kimbrel had the Astros scored those runs. A lot of Yankees and Astros fans are acting like this was why the Astros lost. It's one call in the first inning. There's no way of knowing how the game would have played out. |
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