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Post by soxaddict on Dec 16, 2018 9:14:05 GMT -5
What about a trade for Danny Salazar? If healthy, could be a great bullpen piece. Two years of control left, only making $4.5M for 2019.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2018 11:22:27 GMT -5
What about a trade for Danny Salazar? If healthy, could be a great bullpen piece. Two years of control left, only making $4.5M for 2019. He’s too good a starter when healthy to be in the bullpen if healthy. Also, he’s cheap, like you pointed out, which is perfect for Cleveland. I don’t see any way we can give a package we’d want that would make sense for Cleveland.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 16, 2018 12:14:59 GMT -5
What about a trade for Danny Salazar? If healthy, could be a great bullpen piece. Two years of control left, only making $4.5M for 2019. He’s too good a starter when healthy to be in the bullpen if healthy. Also, he’s cheap, like you pointed out, which is perfect for Cleveland. I don’t see any way we can give a package we’d want that would make sense for Cleveland. I'm not so sure. While $4.5M is cheap, it makes it that much easier for them to hold on to Kluber and Bauer. They basically gave Yonder Alonso away and he was actually useful IMO. Missing all of 2018 and having surpassed 138 innings pitched only one time in his career, I think he's destined for the bullpen in Cleveland. That OF in Cleveland is awful. We could start with Sam Travis who would be an upgrade IMO.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2018 13:44:05 GMT -5
He’s too good a starter when healthy to be in the bullpen if healthy. Also, he’s cheap, like you pointed out, which is perfect for Cleveland. I don’t see any way we can give a package we’d want that would make sense for Cleveland. I'm not so sure. While $4.5M is cheap, it makes it that much easier for them to hold on to Kluber and Bauer. They basically gave Yonder Alonso away and he was actually useful IMO. Missing all of 2018 and having surpassed 138 innings pitched only one time in his career, I think he's destined for the bullpen in Cleveland. That OF in Cleveland is awful. We could start with Sam Travis who would be an upgrade IMO. Do we know that pitching out of the bullpen is better for a guys shoulder than in the rotation?
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 16, 2018 14:29:09 GMT -5
Got ya. I would not trade JBJ for him though. I don't get why you'd trade for Bradley when the market is flush with very good relievers this offseason for whom you'd only need to pay money. And yes, I know what Dombrowski has said, but it seems to me that the org's strategy will be to sit back and let the RP market play out such that they can strike with a value proposition on one of those guys, and if that's the case, Dombrowski is saying all the right things you'd want him to say if that's the strategy. "No, we don't want to spend money on a high-end reliever... oh, your client really wants to sign with us? ... He has no other offers? ... well, let me see what I can swing..." You may be a bit misconstrued with my post. I said I would NOT trade Bradley. I agree with your post.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 16, 2018 14:31:50 GMT -5
Got ya. I would not trade JBJ for him though. Not straight up; my original amended (to include A Bradley) post (and I don’t think anyone here really thinks the teams match up, since Bos is contending and AZ is rebuilding, so it’d be the reverse trade that would make sense), I included Kristian Robinson (huge tools, too-100 guy, Rookie ball) and Daulton Varsho, a 22-y/o catcher in high A. I don’t think trading JBJ makes sense unless they got an overpay in return with an MLB/near-ready piece. Idk what acquiring Archie Bradley alone would take; he’s got three years and figures to be worth about 4-5 WAR in that time (2.7 fWAR the past two), and paid about 1 WAR worth (about $10M considering arb raises. So you’re talking a fair amount of excess value, maybe $30M. I doubt he brings that back (that’s a top-100 prospect in the 50-75 range) because, unproven reliever, but AZ would probably ask for a strong return that I don’t think the Sox have/want to part with. Never know, though. I agree it might be more than we could/should give up. I definitely want Bradley. Unless the fantasy trade of "X" player is offered of course. 😎
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2018 15:00:09 GMT -5
I don't get why you'd trade for Bradley when the market is flush with very good relievers this offseason for whom you'd only need to pay money. And yes, I know what Dombrowski has said, but it seems to me that the org's strategy will be to sit back and let the RP market play out such that they can strike with a value proposition on one of those guys, and if that's the case, Dombrowski is saying all the right things you'd want him to say if that's the strategy. "No, we don't want to spend money on a high-end reliever... oh, your client really wants to sign with us? ... He has no other offers? ... well, let me see what I can swing..." You may be a bit misconstrued with my post. I said I would NOT trade Bradley. I agree with your post. I was adding to the conversation that you had replied to, not replying to you directly. Sorry for any confusion.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 17, 2018 15:57:13 GMT -5
I'm not so sure. While $4.5M is cheap, it makes it that much easier for them to hold on to Kluber and Bauer. They basically gave Yonder Alonso away and he was actually useful IMO. Missing all of 2018 and having surpassed 138 innings pitched only one time in his career, I think he's destined for the bullpen in Cleveland. That OF in Cleveland is awful. We could start with Sam Travis who would be an upgrade IMO. Do we know that pitching out of the bullpen is better for a guys shoulder than in the rotation? I'm not sure if there is any concrete data to say otherwise, I'm just assuming fewer IP would translate to less injuries.
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Post by michael on Dec 17, 2018 18:09:31 GMT -5
Starting v BP seems like the prep time (warm-up) before pitching might be sufficiently different and cause a pitcher physical problems. Also up and down warm-ups could be a contributor. Additionally coming into "hot" situations is more stressful than starting a clean inning.
Pitching less innings could be a big help if not offset by irregular or constant use.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2018 7:49:16 GMT -5
Starting v BP seems like the prep time (warm-up) before pitching might be sufficiently different and cause a pitcher physical problems. Also up and down warm-ups could be a contributor. Additionally coming into "hot" situations is more stressful than starting a clean inning. Pitching less innings could be a big help if not offset by irregular or constant use. Agreed but to be a truly useful bullpen arm it’s irregular
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Post by Guidas on Dec 18, 2018 19:30:10 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,008
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 18, 2018 20:30:17 GMT -5
What a fascinating guy. Thrives on getting hitters to chase the splitter out of the zone. Resulting in these two splits:
--Way better with RISP then otherwise (career 544 OPS allowed versus 707).
-- Least effective against 7 through 9 hitters (714), about the same versus 1 & 2 hitters (709), more effective against 5 & 6 (633), deadly against 3 & 4 (552). Most extreme reverse quality split I've ever seen.
IOW, when guys are just trying to get on base, he's nothing special, but when they're trying to knock guys in or hit for power, he makes them look silly.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 18, 2018 22:16:40 GMT -5
And the Brian Bannister train continues.
I'm starting to wonder if DD is serious about letting Barnes or Brasier close. The scenario: they bet that one of Brewer/Putnam/Thornburg/Wright/Lakins will step up by the end of April as the #3 guy in the pen. Ideally another one of them emerges as the #4 guy, pushing Hembree to the #5 spot. Come midseason (if, as is likely, they need reinforcements), they trade for a rental or call up Feltman/Hernandez or both.
I still think DD waits to see if a high leverage guy falls to them on a cheap deal, but there's a chance that doesn't happen, in which case I'm sensing they stand pat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2018 22:43:11 GMT -5
And the Brian Bannister train continues. I'm starting to wonder if DD is serious about letting Barnes or Brasier close. The scenario: they bet that one of Brewer/Putnam/Thornburg/Wright/Lakins will step up by the end of April as the #3 guy in the pen. Ideally another one of them emerges as the #4 guy, pushing Hembree to the #5 spot. Come midseason (if, as is likely, they need reinforcements), they trade for a rental or call up Feltman/Hernandez or both. I still think DD waits to see if a high leverage guy falls to them on a cheap deal, but there's a chance that doesn't happen, in which case I'm sensing they stand pat. That appears to be exactly what their plan is. I don't think any of the big names fall to them. I mean even injured pitchers are getting contracts. I think Holland got a sizable one last year even though he wound up being a bust and Rosenthal got one that is probably larger than what the Sox are looking to spend. I honestly don't think they'll get any of Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Miller, Ottavino, Herrera, or Soria. It looks like they're taking calculated gambles like Putnam and Ramirez, throwing them against the wall and see what sticks while they hope their kids develop quickly.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 0:03:25 GMT -5
And the Brian Bannister train continues. I'm starting to wonder if DD is serious about letting Barnes or Brasier close. The scenario: they bet that one of Brewer/Putnam/Thornburg/Wright/Lakins will step up by the end of April as the #3 guy in the pen. Ideally another one of them emerges as the #4 guy, pushing Hembree to the #5 spot. Come midseason (if, as is likely, they need reinforcements), they trade for a rental or call up Feltman/Hernandez or both. I still think DD waits to see if a high leverage guy falls to them on a cheap deal, but there's a chance that doesn't happen, in which case I'm sensing they stand pat. That appears to be exactly what their plan is. I don't think any of the big names fall to them. I mean even injured pitchers are getting contracts. I think Holland got a sizable one last year even though he wound up being a bust and Rosenthal got one that is probably larger than what the Sox are looking to spend. I honestly don't think they'll get any of Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Miller, Ottavino, Herrera, or Soria. It looks like they're taking calculated gambles like Putnam and Ramirez, throwing them against the wall and see what sticks while they hope their kids develop quickly. That appears to me to be how it's unfolding as well except I'd add Poyner/Walden and whatever they get for trading a catcher to the mix.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 19, 2018 0:32:03 GMT -5
Gotta say I think you guys are reaching when reading the tea leafs! Maybe they play it smart, heck frugal maybe, but they are going to add relievers that have good track records. Were just looking at good depth signings like Brasier last year. This is what good teams do to build great depth.
The fact they made Kelly a two year offer, have expressed interest in more than one of the top guys, and those waiting on Kimbrel reports just won't die.
All these reports about money included trading core players to get under. If you weren't going to spend you wouldn't need to trade anyone. Nevermind it just makes zero sense. I don't care how much you like Braiser and Barnes or these new guys. You don't build a super team than cheap out in the bullpen, with 10 to 15 million you could very well get two very good bullpen arms with experience and good track records. DD is just hunting for deals.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 19, 2018 1:26:13 GMT -5
Gotta say I think you guys are reaching when reading the tea leafs! Maybe they play it smart, heck frugal maybe, but they are going to add relievers that have good track records. Were just looking at good depth signings like Brasier last year. This is what good teams do to build great depth. The fact they made Kelly a two year offer, have expressed interest in more than one of the top guys, and those waiting on Kimbrel reports just won't die. All these reports about money included trading core players to get under. If you weren't going to spend you wouldn't need to trade anyone. Nevermind it just makes zero sense. I don't care how much you like Braiser and Barnes or these new guys. You don't build a super team than cheap out in the bullpen, with 10 to 15 million you could very well get two very good bullpen arms with experience and good track records. DD is just hunting for deals. Yeah, I think they’ll sign *someone* too (as in a “name” RP), but I also think they might be inclined to eek out what they can from the down market. Just go sheer volume and hope they get another Brasier. I think it’d be a mistake not to have *some* (more or less) certainty at the end/high leverage spot. I really hope they get someone on a sorta short money/years deal (I’d still prefer two, and a flip). But I really like how they’re combing through the market and ID’ing some interesting guys. Jordan Lyles would’ve been nice. Also still hoping they squeeze out a down-market/post-hype/buy-low young starter who they can convert to relief a la Miller/Davis. I just don’t see them going into the season with such a gaping hole in the ‘pen, regardless of how high they are on the kids. RPs command good returns at the deadline, this is an opportunity to exploit that while at the same time protecting themselves against injuries/underperformance.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2018 1:31:59 GMT -5
Yeah not to bring up the same point, but this was right around the time last year we were first seeing some of the "maybe they're not going to sign JDM" posts, I think.
There was a lot of smoke, then DD was like, nah, we don't need relievers from this loaded reliever market where nobody is moving. He's working the market. Hell, Robertson basically narrowed his market to three teams - they basically HAVE to take a shot at him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 3:41:13 GMT -5
The original post said:
I still think DD waits to see if a high leverage guy falls to them on a cheap deal, but there's a chance that doesn't happen, in which case I'm sensing they stand pat.
I don't know why people think DD "needs" to do something now. We also have the possibility that a catcher trade will net a decent reliever.
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Post by benfromma on Dec 19, 2018 8:36:06 GMT -5
I don't think there is a specific plan except don't set the market and overpay in money and years. I do believe they will sign one major type relief pitcher a Robertson/Britton type who can fill many roles but can also be our closer if no one else steps up. They hopefully identified those pitchers and move on them when they feel the best deal is to made. But as stated by others they are going to sign players like Putnam and Ramirez and probably a few others to see if they can find the next Brasier. We don't even know if he (Brasier) was one year wonder but we do know he helped us win last year and anything he gives this year is just a bonus. Building a bullpen is extremely difficult you see many times relievers have big years and then fall off the next, they can only handle certain roles and moving them around makes them ineffective, and even when they are successful multi years when do you move on. (age,loss of speed of fastball,or out pitch not effective any more) That is why I usually mention a pitcher like Robertson (there are others) he has had many bullpen roles and has handled them with pretty good success, has been healthy, should sign reasonable contract not bargain basement but not break the bank. So I think the bullpen will made with last year left overs, one major signing, maybe a trade or so, and many minor league signings hopefully hitting the lottery. Will it work maybe or see you @ the trade deadline if arms are needed and then hopefully in October. So your bullpen has to be good enough for you to make the playoffs and once your there you enhance it by adding starters as relievers. 0
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 19, 2018 8:59:29 GMT -5
I know this is some galaxy brain type stuff, but maybe signing Zach Putnam doesn't give any indication of how they view the rest of the market for major league relievers. Maybe they just thought Zach Putnam is a good pitcher at good value.
Also, and I love Brian Bannister so this isn't a shot at him. But the way people run to post "looks like a Bannister project!" at every single low-level signing is kind of funny. I can see Erasmo Ramirez, who has something of a history of underperforming his stuff. But Zach Putnam isn't really a reclamation project, or a guy who needs fixing. He's just a pretty good pitcher who got hurt.
Trivia: Zach Putnam was selected by the Indians with the pick immediately before the Red Sox took Ryan Westmoreland in 2008.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2018 10:07:47 GMT -5
Yeah not to bring up the same point, but this was right around the time last year we were first seeing some of the "maybe they're not going to sign JDM" posts, I think. There was a lot of smoke, then DD was like, nah, we don't need relievers from this loaded reliever market where nobody is moving. He's working the market. Hell, Robertson basically narrowed his market to three teams - they basically HAVE to take a shot at him. I don't question that Dombrowski is indeed working the market. What I question is what is left once the market goes into action. I think Dombrowski is waiting to see who "slips" to toward them, but while that happens I suspect guys like Kimbrel, Miller, Britton, Ottavino, and probably Robertson will be off the board, and I suspect Soria and Herrera won't be far behind. I took it as a good sign for the reliever market that Joe Kelly got 3 years 25 million with his track record. I think Kimbrel, Miller, Briton, Ottavino, and Robertson will most likely command a higher annual value if not a 3rd year. You can debate whether Soria or Herrera (coming off an injury) does as well as Kelly. If it gets beyond that point, who's left that you'd want to see the Sox sign?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 10:30:34 GMT -5
I know this is some galaxy brain type stuff, but maybe signing Zach Putnam doesn't give any indication of how they view the rest of the market for major league relievers. Maybe they just thought Zach Putnam is a good pitcher at good value. Also, and I love Brian Bannister so this isn't a shot at him. But the way people run to post "looks like a Bannister project!" at every single low-level signing is kind of funny. I can see Erasmo Ramirez, who has something of a history of underperforming his stuff. But Zach Putnam isn't really a reclamation project, or a guy who needs fixing. He's just a pretty good pitcher who got hurt. Trivia: Zach Putnam was selected by the Indians with the pick immediately before the Red Sox took Ryan Westmoreland in 2008. Where did anyone relate Putnum to Bannister ? I've seen Brewer and Ramirez. I don't disagree with your point, just wondering where they were mentioned together.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 19, 2018 11:04:58 GMT -5
The string of posts on the previous page by orion, redsox04071318champs, and you came immediately following the Putnam signing posts and Eric's analysis of it. Rereading it, you may have been agreeing with the bullpen strategy more generally, though. Also on the Twitter, but "people are saying on Twitter" is kind of a weakman argument.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 19, 2018 11:10:02 GMT -5
I know this is some galaxy brain type stuff, but maybe signing Zach Putnam doesn't give any indication of how they view the rest of the market for major league relievers. Maybe they just thought Zach Putnam is a good pitcher at good value. Maybe not, but my sense is that guys like Putnam try to sign minor league deals with teams they have a decent shot at breaking camp with. The Sox, for example, have had trouble adding starters on minor league deals because of the depth/quality of their rotation. Maybe I’m seeing a pattern where there isn’t one, but the fact that they signed two interesting relief guys in quick succession (Putnam and Ramirez) makes me think that DD is telling them they have a good shot at making the team.
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