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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2018 12:13:24 GMT -5
The string of posts on the previous page by orion, redsox04071318champs, and you came immediately following the Putnam signing posts and Eric's analysis of it. Rereading it, you may have been agreeing with the bullpen strategy more generally, though. Also on the Twitter, but "people are saying on Twitter" is kind of a weakman argument. Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't trying to connect Bannister to Putnam. His is an injury issue and the fact that he was a good reliever prior to it who now comes cheaply and was kind of off the radar. I think Bannister is a factor with Brewer though and perhaps with Ramirez, although in his case it might just be the injuries that caused him to struggle mightily last year. Don't enough about Ramirez to be certain. For awhile I had him confused with another Erasmo Ramirez who pitched for the Rangers about 10 - 15 years ago. Didn't realize that this Ramirez put up some decent number with TB around 2015.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2018 13:52:36 GMT -5
The Red Sox sign minor league fee agent pitchers every year. Last year it was Cuevas, Layne, Brasier, re-signing Walden and Weems, and before the end of the year, Fernando Rodriguez. Of that group, Brasier happened to bust out.
The year prior, it was Haviland, Cabral, Cordier, Kendrick, Osnowitz, Walden, and re-signing Dahlstrand.
So on and so on. The fact that Brasier made the jump he did probably gives them a great selling point, but there is no change in strategy here. It's a yearly rite.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2018 14:29:13 GMT -5
When did Bannister turn into a wizard? I completely missed that news cycle.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 19, 2018 15:40:33 GMT -5
When did Bannister turn into a wizard? I completely missed that news cycle. Not sure exactly when, but probably finished his apprenticeship around the time Rich Hill broke out?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 19, 2018 16:31:56 GMT -5
Yeah not to bring up the same point, but this was right around the time last year we were first seeing some of the "maybe they're not going to sign JDM" posts, I think. There was a lot of smoke, then DD was like, nah, we don't need relievers from this loaded reliever market where nobody is moving. He's working the market. Hell, Robertson basically narrowed his market to three teams - they basically HAVE to take a shot at him. I don't question that Dombrowski is indeed working the market. What I question is what is left once the market goes into action. I think Dombrowski is waiting to see who "slips" to toward them, but while that happens I suspect guys like Kimbrel, Miller, Britton, Ottavino, and probably Robertson will be off the board, and I suspect Soria and Herrera won't be far behind. I took it as a good sign for the reliever market that Joe Kelly got 3 years 25 million with his track record. I think Kimbrel, Miller, Briton, Ottavino, and Robertson will most likely command a higher annual value if not a 3rd year. You can debate whether Soria or Herrera (coming off an injury) does as well as Kelly. If it gets beyond that point, who's left that you'd want to see the Sox sign? ESPN insider looked at the market and gave a much different look than what you are seeing. 6-10 clubs really interested in free agency, 10 more ard so so and the other 10 are basically out of it. Tons of teams gave out a lot of money to relievers last year and the results weren't good. By this time last year we had a lot more activity on the reliever market. I truly believe only a few more deals of three years will be given out. This isn't like the starter market with few pitchers and a lot of demand. It's the exact opposite. I don't think Kelly helps set the market, more like takes away one of the few teams willing to give out a three year deal. Happ, Harvey, and at some point Pomeranz were helped by Corbin and Eovaldi's deals. The relievers market is more like you better get yours or you might be taking a one year deal. Try placing all these guys, you run out of teams that would spend that much money. The Red Sox are going to spend money on bullpen arms, more than most teams are willing too. When the market gets set and the run begins, if that happens they will grab a pitcher. Waiting for the market to set the price and setting the market price is too different things. I just don't see the Red Sox watching 10 guys sign and them doing nothing. Also some names you didn't include guys like Allen, Romo, Wilson, and even Holland if it was a one year cheap deal. Call me crazy but I see a worst case you get a Cody Allen and Justin Wildon type package. That wouldn't be my goal, but those are two proven relievers with good track records. I could live with that, but I don't think I'll have too. I really think the debate should be more of do we sign 2-3 guys rather than do we sign anyone. This assumes we don't sign Kimbrel and take on some riskier pitchers.
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Post by possum on Dec 21, 2018 12:16:14 GMT -5
Miller signed for $25 million guaranteed over two years with a vesting option for a 3rd year. If we aren’t prepared to pay that kind of deal we really will be relegated to bargain hunting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2018 12:30:12 GMT -5
Miller signed for $25 million guaranteed over two years with a vesting option for a 3rd year. If we aren’t prepared to pay that kind of deal we really will be relegated to bargain hunting. Unless Robertson has to settle for a 2 year deal, that's what I think too. I would think that Robertson comes down to Red Sox and Yankees with the Phillies as an outside shot. There was some thought on this board that Miller would settle for 1 year after his injury marred season, but that wasn't realistically going to happen, not with a lot of teams wanting bullpen help. Soria is off the board for 2 years at 7.5 million/year. Sounds like Philly want Britton. Kimbrel is not getting his 6 years 100 million but they want Kenley Jansen money. They might have to settle for something that looks more like Mark Melancon money, but either way it's not going to be 1 year. Maybe Washington goes after Kimbrel? They play reliever roulette every year. Herrera is probably the best shot at the kind of deal I think the Sox would like to strike.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2018 14:43:42 GMT -5
I saw a notification on my phone that the Red Sox signed Hembree and avoided arb.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2018 16:04:39 GMT -5
I saw a notification on my phone that the Red Sox signed Hembree and avoided arb. For 1.3 million per MLBtraderumors.com
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 16:18:05 GMT -5
I guess I'm confused because everyone is acting like Miller getting that deal means the market is increasing or something like that. It seems like a very good deal for the Cardinals unless that vesting option is crazy easy to reach. I also think that deal highlights that if you made a one year 18 million offer you had a very good chance of signing him.
If the Phils go after Britton who's left that would pay Kimbrel? Maybe I'm miss reading the market, yet they seem like the only team that is willing to go crazy. Washington is there, yet they have Sean Doolittle. They can use a few bullpen arms, but do they really go big after a closer when they have a good one? Maybe you just never know with that team. Unless some other team is out there ready to go big on a closer, Kimbrels market really seems tied to Philly. The one team ready to spend a ton of money. If they move on you might have a Martinez market all over again.
If you want Robertson it sure looks like a 2 year 20 million deal is about what it will take. Yet wasn't that always the projection?
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Post by possum on Dec 21, 2018 16:27:27 GMT -5
Miller’s 3rd year kicks in if makes 110 appearances over next two years obviously needs to stay healthy to meet that threshold, not sure Robertson gets less than that as he’s been much more durable.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 16:38:42 GMT -5
Miller was very durable up untill last year. They are almost the exact same age. Miller last 3 years 3.7, 3.1, .2 bwar for a total of 7.0 bwar. Robertson 1.2, 2.9, 1.0 bwar for a total of 5.1 bwar. So for me unless you think Miller just hit a wall and last year wasn't just an outlier type season he should get a lot more. He's just a more dominant pitcher.
Edit: I'm a big believer in fangraphs impact of elite relievers. Guys with 1.7 war and above and how they effect a bullpen and team. Over the last 5 years Robertson has one of those seasons, Miller has four and he did it for four straight years till last year. I like Robertson, yet Millers upside is massive and why he should easily get a lot more money.
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Post by possum on Dec 21, 2018 17:48:54 GMT -5
I agree Miller has a higher ceiling and unless the Sox had a big health concern I would’ve been happy if they did the deal the Cards did, don’t think the difference in money between Miller and Robertson will be that great
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Post by soxfan50 on Dec 21, 2018 18:04:09 GMT -5
I agree Miller has a higher ceiling and unless the Sox had a big health concern I would’ve been happy if they did the deal the Cards did, don’t think the difference in money between Miller and Robertson will be that great Do you think Robertson is their main target at this point, if they can get him locked up for two years, and at a reasonable cost!?
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Post by possum on Dec 21, 2018 18:20:24 GMT -5
Not knowing what their budget allows for a reliever it’s impossible to project who their target is
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 18:30:06 GMT -5
We'll see what happens. Just Robertson doesn't have an agent and has said he wants to pitch close to home. Limits him to the Red Sox and Yankees. I don't see either team giving him 3 years. Lot of experts said he needed to jump on a deal early if he wanted a big one.
Miller's deal can be two years 28.5 million or 3 years 38.5 million. If you look at the high end I'd expect Robertson to get about half of that. I'm very interested to see what he can do without an agent. Looking at the Miller deal his agent got him an extra 2.5 million, 1 million in incentives and the chance at 12.5 million in the third year. Type of things agents do when you can't get a straight three year deal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 21, 2018 18:38:40 GMT -5
Regarding the reliever market, a tweet I read after the Miller deal (sorry, I can't remember who) pointed out that it was the 2nd reliever deal of 3 or more years and that at the same time last year, there were six.
The reliever market has slowed down comparatively speaking.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 18:50:51 GMT -5
Regarding the reliever market, a tweet I read after the Miller deal (sorry, I can't remember who) pointed out that it was the 2nd reliever deal of 3 or more years and that at the same time last year, there were six. The reliever market has slowed down comparatively speaking. If you count that as three years it would be the third, I don't. It's two years with an option. Familia and Kelly got three years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 19:07:09 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 21, 2018 20:00:08 GMT -5
Regarding the reliever market, a tweet I read after the Miller deal (sorry, I can't remember who) pointed out that it was the 2nd reliever deal of 3 or more years and that at the same time last year, there were six. The reliever market has slowed down comparatively speaking. If you count that as three years it would be the third, I don't. It's two years with an option. Familia and Kelly got three years. I don't remember the exact wording, just that it came out after the Miller deal but you are right, my bad, but point of the original tweet still stands.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 21, 2018 22:13:47 GMT -5
Still not close to what the Sox are going to offer.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 22:38:40 GMT -5
Still not close to what the Sox are going to offer. What isn't close?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 22, 2018 0:12:42 GMT -5
I miss Billy Wagner.
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Post by Smittyw on Dec 22, 2018 8:33:18 GMT -5
I miss Koji.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2018 9:33:19 GMT -5
Still not close to what the Sox are going to offer. What isn't close? Kimbrel is still asking for 5 years at 80 million. That's what the article was saying.
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