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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2018 0:56:34 GMT -5
I think of the list of closers I've watched since I've been a fan: Tom Burgmeier, Mark Clear, Bob Stanley, Calvin Schiraldi, Lee Smith, Jeff Reardon, Jeff Russell, Ken Ryan, Rick Aguilera, Heathcliff Slocumb, Tom Gordon, Rod Beck, Tim Wakefield, Derek Lowe, Uggie Urbina, Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Williamson, Keith Foulke, Jonathan Papelbon, Andrew Bailey, Alfredo Aceves, Joel Hanrahan, and Craig Kimbrel, but Koji, by far, is my favorite. Smith, Reardon, and Aguilera were prominent closers and pitched mostly well for the Sox. Foulke was awesome in 2004. Tom Gordon saved just about everything that needed saving in 1998. Kimbrel had as dominating a year as anybody could have in 2017. Papelbon was the best long-term closer the Sox had. But none of them gave me the comfort that Koji gave me in 2013. The guy was called "The Ninja" for a reason. He was in and then out before anybody knew what hit them. No long innings. No fears of batters being walked. Only endless loops of guys swinging at disappearing splitters. And of course guys always missed his 89 MPH fastball. And what was so cool was that on a team filled with bearded guys, here was this guy who has to be the least intimidating looking closer of all-time. This was a guy that Big Papi would throw over his shoulders as if he was Santa delivering a sack of toys. I loved watching him sling Koji over his shoulder. What other closer could that ever happen to? I totally miss that guy. The "prerequisite" to get into the Red Sox HOF is 3 seasons with the team. Koji managed that, so I hope they get around to inducting him into the Red Sox HOF. I'd love to see him back. The only pitcher I enjoyed watching more than Koji was vintage Pedro. Had I been able to watch Tiant, I'm sure I would have enjoyed him. I loved watching Clemens, too, and Sale is a joy, but Koji was right up there with them. We’re probably around the same age, as that’s roughly my list. Kudos on a great memory, btw. And basically, I agree with everything you said. I liked Gordon a lot, as he performed generally well and he was awesome for that one year (and just seemed like a great guy to boot), and for longevity/quality Papelbon was terrific. The late ‘70s-mid ‘90s was a string of ugh for me. Even the “good” guys, like Aguilera or Smith...I hated watching them pitch. Just no confidence. Prob why I liked Gordon so much, because for a little while, he was money. And Foulke was excellent for a short time, too, though he wasn’t much to watch. But for pure joy of watching, Billy Wagner and Koji were my favorite Sox relievers. Wagner...I wish he’d stuck around. Like a LH Gordon at well under 6’ but even more gas and that nasty slider. Plus that year with the Sox I think he dabbled with a changeup that was pretty damn good, too. And Koji...I’ve never seen any player have as much fun on the field. Not even close. His energy was incredible, and infectious. What a guy. I'd guess we're about the same age. I turn 46 next week. My frame of reference goes back to the 1980 season. I don't remember Bill Campbell being the closer. I remember he was finally healthy in 1981 but not in a closing role and gone soon thereafter. I know the role of closers has lost its glamour in a lot of ways, but when you watch the game you tend to zero in on the closers, who's effective, who gives you ulcers, who's horrendous, and with Koji, who soothes your nerves. I remember how insane it felt the day the Sox traded Schiraldi and Al Nipper to the Cubs for Lee Smith. We thought it was some fanboy making up trades that he wanted to see the Sox made, but crazily enough it was a real trade - thank you Don Zimmer. But Smith wasn't as dominating with the Sox as he was with the Cubs or would be with the Cardinals. I remember him blowing Opening Day in 1988 and the headlines weren't too kind. And the Reardon the Sox had wasn't quite the same guy he was in Montreal. You mentioned Wagner. I remember being excited when the Sox got him. Thought he would be a nice LH complement to Papelbon. Thought it might help them in 09 in the playoffs but I don't think Wagner was particularly effective, although he did pitch well in his brief regular season appearances. I remember 09 in that the Sox looked like they might be able to escape an 0-2 hole to the Angels and they had a 6-3 or was it 6-4 lead with 2 outs in the 9th ready to close the Angels out to go to Game 4 at Fenway and I remember Bobby Abreu getting a big hit and Vlad finally coming through against the Sox. And the Angels finally knocked off the Sox in the post-season which had to feel really, really good for them after 1986, 2004, 2007, and 2008. If the Sox had to lose to the Angels that was a good year to do it. Don't think the 09 Sox would have fared well against the 09 Yankees. Rather the Yankees beat the Angels than the Sox.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 23, 2018 8:17:17 GMT -5
Couple thoughts on the last batches of posts:
1. It makes perfect sense for Kimbrel to think last year was an anomaly for him. His stuff was as good as ever. He had a lot going on off the field and he missed all his prep time early, plus the tipping pitches issue late in the year into the playoffs. Guy can clearly still dominate if his mechanics are correct.
2. Britton is probably the worst guy the Sox can have. The Yankees eat up left handed pitching. Our rotation is already 3/5 left handed, we don’t need our closer to be. They being said; you don’t ultimately make a decision based on the Yankee lineup, but it’s not an ideal fit.
3. Pedro, you keep reading the “tea leaves” and then making posts like they are fact. Unless, I’m missing something there are no quotes out there that has Dombrowski or ownership saying they need to stay under the highest tax this year. We all know it’s a barrier they use and at least pretend like they want to stay under it but there’s nothing directly from the team so they “aren’t talking out both sides of their mouths.”
4. Not to crap all over the morals of these reporters we follow so closely, but a large percentage of their reports and rumors are complete utter BS. They are either borderline making stuff up or stringing together the loosest pieces of information possible and combining it with stuff that is commonsensical. Like Sox need bullpen help so I’ll just write a report connecting them to any pitcher out there that fits that mold.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 11:27:18 GMT -5
Couple thoughts on the last batches of posts: 1. It makes perfect sense for Kimbrel to think last year was an anomaly for him. His stuff was as good as ever. He had a lot going on off the field and he missed all his prep time early, plus the tipping pitches issue late in the year into the playoffs. Guy can clearly still dominate if his mechanics are correct. 2. Britton is probably the worst guy the Sox can have. The Yankees eat up left handed pitching. Our rotation is already 3/5 left handed, we don’t need our closer to be. They being said; you don’t ultimately make a decision based on the Yankee lineup, but it’s not an ideal fit. 3. Pedro, you keep reading the “tea leaves” and then making posts like they are fact. Unless, I’m missing something there are no quotes out there that has Dombrowski or ownership saying they need to stay under the highest tax this year. We all know it’s a barrier they use and at least pretend like they want to stay under it but there’s nothing directly from the team so they “aren’t talking out both sides of their mouths.” 4. Not to crap all over the morals of these reporters we follow so closely, but a large percentage of their reports and rumors are complete utter BS. They are either borderline making stuff up or stringing together the loosest pieces of information possible and combining it with stuff that is commonsensical. Like Sox need bullpen help so I’ll just write a report connecting them to any pitcher out there that fits that mold. It's not just the last luxury tax threshold that they've been talking through both sides of the mouth sort of speak. I'm sure the Sox would go over if they have to. They've been keeping everyone guessing with the last reliever/closer acquisition. Go cheap and sign a bargain? Sign someome for big dollars and blow past the last CBT and not care about money? Spend big money on a closer and trade a guy like Porcello?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2018 11:39:23 GMT -5
The thing that I keep coming back to is say that Kimbrel's value drops to say 4 years and $60 million. Are the Red Sox really going to pounce?
It's not that those contract figures are unreasonable.
It's a combo of that he struggled mightily in the 2nd half - you'd think the effects of missing spring training might have worn off a bit. I get that he was tipping his pitches but in a lot of cases some of those pitches were non-competitive and nowhere near the strike zone. His FB velocity was down while his BB/9 and HR/9 were up.
So Kimbrel isn't necessarily a future investment I'd feel comfortable. I'd be worried about paying for his past performance.
But more concerning is if you tie up Kimbrel does that means it becomes a given that Xander doesn't come back or that they have no way of bringing back Porcello?
Dombrowski has said it himself. You can't bring back everybody. I remember him making a statement about how hard it would be in this day and age to keep the Big Red Machine of Cincinnati together had those 1970s teams played in this era. Hell, the Reds couldn't keep them back then either. They wound up dumping or losing most of those players as they dealt away Perez and eventually Foster, and lost Morgan, Gullett, Rose and Griffey to free agency. Only Bench and Concepcion remained.
So if they want to dump under the luxury tax limit after the 2020 season how does having Kimbrel and having added Eovaldi's deal and having Price remain help them get under 206 million? That would tell me they perhaps think that re-signing Xander is unlikely - or maybe they find Xander's defense as something they wouldn't want to invest long-term in (and don't need him as a 3b)? Or more likely, as usual, I'm reading too much into things?
I guess I just don't see how signing Kimbrel, when you're trying to prioritize your ballclub going forward, makes sense. That's why I have trouble even believing the rumors that the Sox are waiting on Kimbrel. I figured they were waiting on him to set his market and have the dominoes below him fall to their markets, but that hasn't happened. Just about all of those guys are signed or are near signing. It's easier for me to see the Sox sign a guy for 2 years 15 - 20 million than give Kimbrel 4 years 64 million or whatever. With a reliever signed to 2 years 20 million, the Sox could always trade that reliever away with a year on his contract if they re-sign a Bogaerts or even a Porcello but still get what they want out of the reliever for 2019. Then maybe by 2020 they might be in a situation they can go with Feltman and save the $ and re-set.
Whether they "need" to absolutely re-set because of how wealthy they are is a different issue. I'd be surprised if they don't re-set. If it didn't matter, wouldn't they have matched the Dodgers for Joe Kelly if they think they "fixed" him? That tells me they don't want to watch the payroll skyrocket toward 275 - 300 million, and that they want to eventually get under for that 2020 season before re-setting.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 23, 2018 12:36:16 GMT -5
I would love for us to keep Kimbrel. Up until a couple weeks ago, I thought he was gone. Now, I think we may get a decent deal on him.
One thing of note on him: I think recent memory screws people's perception of how good this guy is. He is an all time great closer and aside from a few stats like his highest HR rate, I think he is as safe as any other FA pitcher out there.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 23, 2018 12:45:40 GMT -5
The thing that I keep coming back to is say that Kimbrel's value drops to say 4 years and $60 million. Are the Red Sox really going to pounce? It's not that those contract figures are unreasonable. It's a combo of that he struggled mightily in the 2nd half - you'd think the effects of missing spring training might have worn off a bit. I get that he was tipping his pitches but in a lot of cases some of those pitches were non-competitive and nowhere near the strike zone. His FB velocity was down while his BB/9 and HR/9 were up. So Kimbrel isn't necessarily a future investment I'd feel comfortable. I'd be worried about paying for his past performance. But more concerning is if you tie up Kimbrel does that means it becomes a given that Xander doesn't come back or that they have no way of bringing back Porcello? Dombrowski has said it himself. You can't bring back everybody. I remember him making a statement about how hard it would be in this day and age to keep the Big Red Machine of Cincinnati together had those 1970s teams played in this era. Hell, the Reds couldn't keep them back then either. They wound up dumping or losing most of those players as they dealt away Perez and eventually Foster, and lost Morgan, Gullett, Rose and Griffey to free agency. Only Bench and Concepcion remained. So if they want to dump under the luxury tax limit after the 2020 season how does having Kimbrel and having added Eovaldi's deal and having Price remain help them get under 206 million? That would tell me they perhaps think that re-signing Xander is unlikely - or maybe they find Xander's defense as something they wouldn't want to invest long-term in (and don't need him as a 3b)? Or more likely, as usual, I'm reading too much into things? I guess I just don't see how signing Kimbrel, when you're trying to prioritize your ballclub going forward, makes sense. That's why I have trouble even believing the rumors that the Sox are waiting on Kimbrel. I figured they were waiting on him to set his market and have the dominoes below him fall to their markets, but that hasn't happened. Just about all of those guys are signed or are near signing. It's easier for me to see the Sox sign a guy for 2 years 15 - 20 million than give Kimbrel 4 years 64 million or whatever. With a reliever signed to 2 years 20 million, the Sox could always trade that reliever away with a year on his contract if they re-sign a Bogaerts or even a Porcello but still get what they want out of the reliever for 2019. Then maybe by 2020 they might be in a situation they can go with Feltman and save the $ and re-set. Whether they "need" to absolutely re-set because of how wealthy they are is a different issue. I'd be surprised if they don't re-set. If it didn't matter, wouldn't they have matched the Dodgers for Joe Kelly if they think they "fixed" him? That tells me they don't want to watch the payroll skyrocket toward 275 - 300 million, and that they want to eventually get under for that 2020 season before re-setting. Kimbrel only makes sense for 1 or 2 years for the Red Sox, which makes it pretty unlikely that they sign him unless he's actually open to that.
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Post by gerry on Dec 23, 2018 13:06:20 GMT -5
By the numbers the Sox can hand out a couple of larger than usual one year contracts for 2019 to try and repeat, and still reset in 2020. They don’t have to reset but if they do, although the reset would cost some genuine talent, the Sox should still remain competitive enough to hope for a three-peat in 2020 and then sliding past the cap again ifor 2021; as realistic a scenario as any. It is possible that league minimum additions of Lin, Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, etc. could be enough for that. They would still be better than, say, the 2018 A’s, Rays, Brewers, Braves on the face of it. Perhaps more importantly, it is baseball. Anything will happen. Including a reality altering strike. Gonna be an interesting few years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 13:33:41 GMT -5
For all the Kimbrel talk about last year being an off year because of the off field issues with his daughter to begin the year, I'll give you that in the beginning of the season when his velocity was down for a month or two.
However, he's had other years like last year. His one year with the Padres, he had the same homerun and walk problems. He just turned 30. He's not getting any better from this point.
It's not a good thing that he's a guy that's easy pick up pitch tipping wise too.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 23, 2018 13:45:04 GMT -5
Few things Kimbrel's velocity drop is mainly from the first two months. He had almost no training camp. It was fine the rest of the year. It was higher the last three months compared to 2016. That lack of work and getting his arm ready could also help explain after the all-star break. Given everything he went through its amazing he pitched like he did. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=518886&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/23/2018&s_type=2As far as Joe Kelly they obviously didn't think the change was real. At the same time they offered two years. So how does that show they want to get under in 2020? How does Kimbrel prevent Bogaerts from resigning? Porcello was gone the minute they signed Eovaldi. Everyone seems to be thinking use Kimbrel's lets say 15 million somewhere else and that is better for the team. Yet do you guys really think we spend no money on the bullpen in 2020? Maybe we get lucky and a bunch of guys step up, but that is a lot of wishful thinking. Nevermind they went two years on Kelly and most of these guys like Robertson take two years. I just don't get it. If no Kimbrel because of 2020, than it's only one year deals. Yet the Red Sox aren't acting that way. If you can get Kimbrel on a good deal no other reliever is going to have more trade value potentially. This 2020 talk is getting out of hand. No matter what the team does everyone keeps acting like we have to get under. Let's see what they have done so far, sign Eovaldi for four years, offered Kelly two years, involved with a bunch of relievers that will likely take 2-4 years to sign. How in the world does that make everyone think we are getting under in 2020? I don't think the Red Sox know what they are going to do in 2020, because 2019 will help shape the path they take.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 23, 2018 13:46:59 GMT -5
For all the Kimbrel talk about last year being an off year because of the off field issues with his daughter to begin the year, I'll give you that in the beginning of the season when his velocity was down for a month or two. However, he's had other years like last year. His one year with the Padres, he had the same homerun and walk problems. He just turned 30. He's not getting any better from this point. It's not a good thing that he's a guy that's easy pick up pitch tipping wise too. You said the same exact thing in 2016 Pedro, then bam one and a half years of utter dominance. Come on now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2018 13:55:33 GMT -5
By the numbers the Sox can hand out a couple of larger than usual one year contracts for 2019 to try and repeat, and still reset in 2020. They don’t have to reset but if they do, although the reset would cost some genuine talent, the Sox should still remain competitive enough to hope for a three-peat in 2020 and then sliding past the cap again ifor 2021; as realistic a scenario as any. It is possible that league minimum additions of Lin, Chavis, Lakins, Feltman, etc. could be enough for that. They would still be better than, say, the 2018 A’s, Rays, Brewers, Braves on the face of it. Perhaps more importantly, it is baseball. Anything will happen. Including a reality altering strike. Gonna be an interesting few years. gerry, who are these larger than usual one year contracts you speak of? The relievers are get multi-year deals. They have five guys with potential to make bigger $ for 2020 in Sale, JDM, Bogaerts, Kimbrel (if they re-sign him now), they've added Eovaldi to the mix, and there's still Porcello. Plus Betts and JBJ and some others will make more in arbitration and they're in the 230s now in payroll. It's tough to bring these guys back and remain under 206 for that one year - the 2020 season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 14:00:42 GMT -5
For all the Kimbrel talk about last year being an off year because of the off field issues with his daughter to begin the year, I'll give you that in the beginning of the season when his velocity was down for a month or two. However, he's had other years like last year. His one year with the Padres, he had the same homerun and walk problems. He just turned 30. He's not getting any better from this point. It's not a good thing that he's a guy that's easy pick up pitch tipping wise too. You said the same exact thing in 2016 Pedro, then bam one and a half years of utter dominance. Come on now. It's not a good thing that he's dominant one year and off the next year. I'm sure this problem will go away in his 30's Glass.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2018 14:08:29 GMT -5
Few things Kimbrel's velocity drop is mainly from the first two months. He had almost no training camp. It was fine the rest of the year. It was higher the last three months compared to 2016. That lack of work and getting his arm ready could also help explain after the all-star break. Given everything he went through its amazing he pitched like he did. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=518886&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/23/2018&s_type=2As far as Joe Kelly they obviously didn't think the change was real. At the same time they offered two years. So how does that show they want to get under in 2020? How does Kimbrel prevent Bogaerts from resigning? Porcello was gone the minute they signed Eovaldi. Everyone seems to be thinking use Kimbrel's lets say 15 million somewhere else and that is better for the team. Yet do you guys really think we spend no money on the bullpen in 2020? Maybe we get lucky and a bunch of guys step up, but that is a lot of wishful thinking. Nevermind they went two years on Kelly and most of these guys like Robertson take two years. I just don't get it. If no Kimbrel because of 2020, than it's only one year deals. Yet the Red Sox aren't acting that way. If you can get Kimbrel on a good deal no other reliever is going to have more trade value potentially. This 2020 talk is getting out of hand. No matter what the team does everyone keeps acting like we have to get under. Let's see what they have done so far, sign Eovaldi for four years, offered Kelly two years, involved with a bunch of relievers that will likely take 2-4 years to sign. How in the world does that make everyone think we are getting under in 2020? I don't think the Red Sox know what they are going to do in 2020, because 2019 will help shape the path they take. umass, I do think the team wants to get under. Dombrowski has already mentioned that won't be able to keep the team together. I'd be very surprised if they didn't try to dip under for the 2020 season. I figure they're around 230 million or so now or maybe even a bit higher with Eovaldi's new contract. After 2019 they lose all but Sandoval's buy-out so that's about 15 million in savings. They're enjoying their Hanley savings right now. Assuming Porcello is a goner that's 20 million in saving and they'll save about 13 million when both 1b, Pearce and Moreland are gone. Nunez's $5 million or so will be gone, too. So that's about 53 million coming off the books, not counting free agents they'll most likely be pursuing. JDM's new contract would probably be an extra 2 - 3 million. Sale would probably be an extra $15 million/year. Bogaerts would be an extra $10 - $12 million/year to keep? Betts, Bradley and E-Rod will have arbitration bumps that could be another $15 - $20 million between the 3 of them? They'd probably need to replace Porcello in the rotation? So that's some more money. So I figure that eats up the savings and they're still at 230 and haven't dropped down below 206 million. None of this factors in adding Kimbrel to payroll, which would further make it harder to drop under. I don't see how this team goes from 245 million or so to 206 without guys beyond Porcello leaving. If your position is they're not dropping under so who cares, ok. I don't agree, but I see where you're coming from, and I don't disagree that the Red Sox couldn't handle it. I'd even argue on your side saying why shouldn't the Red Sox see what the new basic agreement or whatever becomes of the growing animosity between owners/players and small market owners/big market owners becomes and how the rules change? Maybe by then there won't be penalties for spending 300 million on a payroll so if they wait it out they take a hit for a couple of years, keep having their best shot at winning, and have the penalties disappear possibly?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 14:19:03 GMT -5
The Sox offered Kelly a short term deal for not a ton of money. If the Sox traded a catcher, they could stay under the last CBT if they didn't make any major moves in season, including the trade deadline this year.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 23, 2018 14:38:06 GMT -5
Just get the dude.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 23, 2018 14:54:15 GMT -5
Few things Kimbrel's velocity drop is mainly from the first two months. He had almost no training camp. It was fine the rest of the year. It was higher the last three months compared to 2016. That lack of work and getting his arm ready could also help explain after the all-star break. Given everything he went through its amazing he pitched like he did. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=518886&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/23/2018&s_type=2As far as Joe Kelly they obviously didn't think the change was real. At the same time they offered two years. So how does that show they want to get under in 2020? How does Kimbrel prevent Bogaerts from resigning? Porcello was gone the minute they signed Eovaldi. Everyone seems to be thinking use Kimbrel's lets say 15 million somewhere else and that is better for the team. Yet do you guys really think we spend no money on the bullpen in 2020? Maybe we get lucky and a bunch of guys step up, but that is a lot of wishful thinking. Nevermind they went two years on Kelly and most of these guys like Robertson take two years. I just don't get it. If no Kimbrel because of 2020, than it's only one year deals. Yet the Red Sox aren't acting that way. If you can get Kimbrel on a good deal no other reliever is going to have more trade value potentially. This 2020 talk is getting out of hand. No matter what the team does everyone keeps acting like we have to get under. Let's see what they have done so far, sign Eovaldi for four years, offered Kelly two years, involved with a bunch of relievers that will likely take 2-4 years to sign. How in the world does that make everyone think we are getting under in 2020? I don't think the Red Sox know what they are going to do in 2020, because 2019 will help shape the path they take. umass, I do think the team wants to get under. Dombrowski has already mentioned that won't be able to keep the team together. I don't think your point about offering Kelly 2 years is an argument that the Sox are going to spend big $ on relievers. If they don't think they fixed Kelly, then, yeah I see your argument, but if they did fix Kelly and that World Series performance is a glimpse of what fixed Joe Kelly looks like going forward wouldn't you invest in that if 3 years $25 million would pretty much do the trick? I'd be very surprised if they didn't try to dip under for the 2020 season. I figure they're around 230 million or so now or maybe even a bit higher with Eovaldi's new contract. After 2019 they lose all but Sandoval's buy-out so that's about 15 million in savings. They're enjoying their Hanley savings right now. Assuming Porcello is a goner that's 20 million in saving and they'll save about 13 million when both 1b, Pearce and Moreland are gone. Nunez's $5 million or so will be gone, too. So that's about 53 million coming off the books, not counting free agents they'll most likely be pursuing. JDM's new contract would probably be an extra 2 - 3 million. Sale would probably be an extra $15 million/year. Bogaerts would be an extra $10 - $12 million/year to keep? Betts, Bradley and E-Rod will have arbitration bumps that could be another $15 - $20 million between the 3 of them? They'd probably need to replace Porcello in the rotation? So that's some more money. So I figure that eats up the savings and they're still at 230 and haven't dropped down below 206 million. None of this factors in adding Kimbrel to payroll, which would further make it harder to drop under. I don't see how this team goes from 245 million or so to 206 without guys beyond Porcello leaving. If your position is they're not dropping under so who cares, ok. I don't agree, but I see where you're coming from, and I don't disagree that the Red Sox couldn't handle it. I'd even argue on your side saying why shouldn't the Red Sox see what the new basic agreement or whatever becomes of the growing animosity between owners/players and small market owners/big market owners becomes and how the rules change? Maybe by then there won't be penalties for spending 300 million on a payroll so if they wait it out they take a hit for a couple of years, keep having their best shot at winning, and have the penalties disappear possibly? They would have given Kelly 3 years in two seconds if they thought they fixed Kelly. They didn't fix Kelly though, just got him going for a stretch like we've seen time and time again. How doesn't it? By every report I've seen it wasn't like Kelly if he signed was there only move. They sure seemed willing to sign him and someone else. Which makes sense, you really need and should get two proven bullpen arms. I get the we don't want to go over the highest tax line, no team wants to. Yet its almost a given they do If you run the numbers you see my point about 2020. Eovaldi and his money makes it almost impossible. I don't buy they gave Eovaldi that deal and were like ok we'll just let Sale, Martinez, or Bogaerts leave but we have Eovaldi. The focus is on winning in 2019 and then we'll figure things out.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 23, 2018 14:58:45 GMT -5
The Sox offered Kelly a short term deal for not a ton of money. If the Sox traded a catcher, they could stay under the last CBT if they didn't make any major moves in season, including the trade deadline this year. Yea I forgot you think they offered two years 8 million. They are going over, its just about a given! Add in relievers, minor league call ups and trades.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 23, 2018 15:02:13 GMT -5
The Sox offered Kelly a short term deal for not a ton of money. If the Sox traded a catcher, they could stay under the last CBT if they didn't make any major moves in season, including the trade deadline this year. But why would they do that? That handcuffs them and puts them in a position where they should be competing for a championship but won't be able to address any issues throughout the entire season. I could pretty much guarantee you that they aren't going to handcuff themselves like that. Moving 10 spots back in the draft is not worth that much. I mean they'd probably include that in any trade if they were allowed to.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 15:02:49 GMT -5
The Sox offered Kelly a short term deal for not a ton of money. If the Sox traded a catcher, they could stay under the last CBT if they didn't make any major moves in season, including the trade deadline this year. Yea I forgot you think they offered two years 8 million. They are going over, its just about a given! Add in relievers, minor league call ups and trades. That's because they reportedly offered less than the Dodgers. If we are going to take reports like the end all be all, then don't hold it against me when I do the same on the Kelly offer. The Sox would have been around 240-245 million with a Kelly signing and a catcher trade. With no major moves, they could have stayed under. I think they will most likely go over too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 23, 2018 15:05:16 GMT -5
The Sox offered Kelly a short term deal for not a ton of money. If the Sox traded a catcher, they could stay under the last CBT if they didn't make any major moves in season, including the trade deadline this year. But why would they do that? That handcuffs them and puts them in a position where they should be competing for a championship but won't be able to address any issues throughout the entire season. I could pretty much guarantee you that they aren't going to handcuff themselves like that. Moving 10 spots back in the draft is not worth that much. I mean they'd probably include that in any trade if they were allowed to. They did in 2017 with the first CBT. I don't think they'll restrict themselves for this year's CBT for 10 spots in the draft though.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 23, 2018 17:33:03 GMT -5
Not being able to keep the team together doesn’t necessarily equal staying under the tax it means staying under a 300m payroll.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2018 8:32:20 GMT -5
Not being able to keep the team together doesn’t necessarily equal staying under the tax it means staying under a 300m payroll. There is also nothing that indicates that they'll be anywhere close to $300 million, ever.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2018 10:31:17 GMT -5
umass, I do think the team wants to get under. Dombrowski has already mentioned that won't be able to keep the team together. I don't think your point about offering Kelly 2 years is an argument that the Sox are going to spend big $ on relievers. If they don't think they fixed Kelly, then, yeah I see your argument, but if they did fix Kelly and that World Series performance is a glimpse of what fixed Joe Kelly looks like going forward wouldn't you invest in that if 3 years $25 million would pretty much do the trick? I'd be very surprised if they didn't try to dip under for the 2020 season. I figure they're around 230 million or so now or maybe even a bit higher with Eovaldi's new contract. After 2019 they lose all but Sandoval's buy-out so that's about 15 million in savings. They're enjoying their Hanley savings right now. Assuming Porcello is a goner that's 20 million in saving and they'll save about 13 million when both 1b, Pearce and Moreland are gone. Nunez's $5 million or so will be gone, too. So that's about 53 million coming off the books, not counting free agents they'll most likely be pursuing. JDM's new contract would probably be an extra 2 - 3 million. Sale would probably be an extra $15 million/year. Bogaerts would be an extra $10 - $12 million/year to keep? Betts, Bradley and E-Rod will have arbitration bumps that could be another $15 - $20 million between the 3 of them? They'd probably need to replace Porcello in the rotation? So that's some more money. So I figure that eats up the savings and they're still at 230 and haven't dropped down below 206 million. None of this factors in adding Kimbrel to payroll, which would further make it harder to drop under. I don't see how this team goes from 245 million or so to 206 without guys beyond Porcello leaving. If your position is they're not dropping under so who cares, ok. I don't agree, but I see where you're coming from, and I don't disagree that the Red Sox couldn't handle it. I'd even argue on your side saying why shouldn't the Red Sox see what the new basic agreement or whatever becomes of the growing animosity between owners/players and small market owners/big market owners becomes and how the rules change? Maybe by then there won't be penalties for spending 300 million on a payroll so if they wait it out they take a hit for a couple of years, keep having their best shot at winning, and have the penalties disappear possibly? They would have given Kelly 3 years in two seconds if they thought they fixed Kelly. They didn't fix Kelly though, just got him going for a stretch like we've seen time and time again. How doesn't it? By every report I've seen it wasn't like Kelly if he signed was there only move. They sure seemed willing to sign him and someone else. Which makes sense, you really need and should get two proven bullpen arms. I get the we don't want to go over the highest tax line, no team wants to. Yet its almost a given they do If you run the numbers you see my point about 2020. Eovaldi and his money makes it almost impossible. I don't buy they gave Eovaldi that deal and were like ok we'll just let Sale, Martinez, or Bogaerts leave but we have Eovaldi. The focus is on winning in 2019 and then we'll figure things out. OK, I'm sure there's a much better way to do compute 2020 payroll than the quick and dirty (and probably inaccurate) reverse engineering methodology that I'm doing, but let's see. They're around 235 million now I think. Earlier I said get rid of the contracts for the two 1b, Sandoval's non-buy out portion, Nunez's deal and Porcello's money and you've cleared about 53 million or so, so now we're at 182 million. Subtract all of the other free agent possibilities, which I didn't do earlier. So take off JDM's 22 million. Subtract $12 million for Xander (I'm guessing that's his arbitration figure). Subtract $13 million for Sale. So another 47 million gets cleared off so we've cleared off 100 million off a 235 million payroll. Figure in an addition of 15 million for arbitration raises so the payroll goes up to about 150 million with about 56 million or less to play with if they want to stay under 206 million. We haven't factored in any additions for 7/31/19 - assuming they'd all be rentals. Haven't figured in any bullpen additions and/or Kimbrel. You can guess that Sale - if healthy would get about 25 - 30 million as a free agent. Let's guess 27 million. You can guess that Xander can make 25 million/year as a free agent. You can guess that JDM can amend his contract to up the value to about 25 million/year. Bringing back Porcello might be another 20 million/year. If they brought back Kimbrel, we'd probably be talking a 4 year 60 million deal or 15 million/year. So if they all came back that's about 262 million if they add nobody else - assuming Chavis becomes the 1b and other key bullpen spots for 2020 are taken up by young relievers. To stay under 206 million they could bring back two of those players listed above. Say Kimbrel is re-signed this offseason that puts the Sox around 165 million with about 40 million or less to play with. They could easily bring back one of those players. Trying to fit in a second would be a close fit. Perhaps they deal JBJ or something like that to create that kind of room? Hard to see them staying under. I think they sign JDM and Sale and everybody else goes. The Sox would really have to stretch - I'd think they'd want to leave room for 2020 mid-season acquisitions as they'd still be competitive. So maybe they can fit Kimbrel in like you say - this is the bullpen thread - forgot for a minute, but it's an awfully tight squeeze. They probably would do better with a 2 year 20 million dollar reliever and sign Herrera as a 1 year rental that doesn't impact 2020.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2018 10:35:39 GMT -5
I wonder if Price has a good season, if they'd explore trading him with 3/$93 left on his deal. He gets 10/5 rights after 2020.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 24, 2018 12:50:08 GMT -5
Not being able to keep the team together doesn’t necessarily equal staying under the tax it means staying under a 300m payroll. There is also nothing that indicates that they'll be anywhere close to $300 million, ever. I think you missed the point. I said the reason they cannot keep everyone and pay them is because they don’t want a 300m payroll. He was saying them not being able to keep everyone is a sign they want to drop below the luxury tax threshold which I disagree with. Even if they want to it’s two separate things. And I’m sure they could technically resign those guys and stay under 300m but they’d be really high and getting close to it and they’d be carrying a lot of large contract risk with no money to fill in holes or have depth.
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