2019 Patriots Offseason Thread

What I'd be interested in seeing or digging into:

1 - Does BB go to certain programs more in years where they have a deep run (shorter amount of time to prepare - likely to lean on "his guys") - Should be easy enough to investigate though the information would likely be limited in it's usefulness

2 - While Need (especially early) is likely not worth discussing as it relates to projecting a draft pick for NE, I'd be really interested in a deep dive of the Pats snap counts relative to role. Especially with the front 7, we see guys who play both in and out (Flowers); up and down (Van Noy). I'm going to reach out to BSJ as that seems like the type of analysis that Bedard would Geek Out over (clearly, I would too but he has the resource and may think it's worth the time).

I don't think the smaller draft board has anything to do with a late start, not enough time, or knowing everything about a few guys than a little about a lot of guys. They know a ton about everyone. They start scouting these guys the minute they start playing. They have draft boards for the next four years. They have a huge staff that scouts these guys year long. The correlation of Bill checking out guys then drafting them is rather small. Usually like one guy a year. I truly believe a lot of that is Bill getting to know guys they can't draft because they go early but then can get later on like Mingo and Shelton to name just a few.

I will say I prefer trading back rather than over drafting players. Yet at the same time did we really have no players ranked high between the late second round and the 5th round in last years draft? Are you telling me our board went Dawson than Bentley? I think you can make a very good case that the Patriot draft board is too small.

For years Bill has done a great job of building depth. It makes it hard for rookies to make the team. So I think you can make a good case that he should be trading up to get some stud players rather than almost always trading down.

Next year is huge for us because we have a ton of picks. Our first, two seconds, three thirds, a fourth, a fith, a 6th, and 3 7th rounders. That is 12 picks before we even trade down and you know he will. I have zero issue if he trades like a third for a future second. Yet I want to see him use a lot of those picks! You have the ammo to move up if needed and this team has more needs than it has in a longtime. You can also afford to take some risks and you don't need to play it 100% safe. A perfect example is taking Cunningham over Dunlap like a decade ago. Dunlap was the highly rated guy, yet had some question marks and Cunningham was the perfect Patriot. Cunningham has been out of the league forever it seems and Dunlap is on his way to 100 career sacks. Every now and then you need to take some risks on talent over the perfect Patriot type player.

I have no issues with the Brown pick, it was good value. It just hasn't worked out. I had no issue with the Easley pick, because the otherside of that is a guy like Gronk.

In a way I get special teams are important. Yet what I'm truly dumbfounded about is why can't you find special team players that can also play on offense or defense? Most teams bring guys in for special teams, let them develop and then get players that can help on offense and defense later on. Bill seems to focus on special teams only players. The last few years we keep like 5 of them on a 53 man roster and 5 players on the active 47 game day roster. Is last years Superbowl different if JB not looking up his name again he doesn't deserve it doesn't play and a guy that was more of a true corner was on the team played, does it make a difference? Part of the problem of us drafting guys and developing lies in how many special teams players we keep year in and year out. I'll take a slight downgrade on special teams for a true developmental player. The league is trying to get rid of kickoffs all together and Bill is going the other way. Doesn't make much sense.

Well, all that’s well and good, but they had better draft someone Brady can throw to. Someone who can stretch the field. Also, a good tight end for another target. There’s not much left on the current team. At least give Brady a chance in his declining years. After that maybe a linebacker who can cover. They have a lot of picks to take a few chances on.

No way I want a diva like Brown on this team. Rather a guy like Golden Tate all day long.

From reports he was yelling at Ben telling him he needed to throw the ball to him more. Wasn't trying in practice, so Ben called him out on it. Brown then fakes an injury and misses a game that could have got the Steelers into the playoffs. Randy Moss was a lot of things and he was dirt cheap to get, but Brown is a diva that is everything the Patriots aren't. You don't play hard on a crappy team, OK. Yet giving up when the playoffs are on the line? 

Go research Brown he might be the biggest Diva in the NFL. From his fur coats, to his need to make huge entrances to training camp every year. What do you think Brady would do when Brown start yelling at him that he needs to throw him the ball more? He'd fit in on your Eagles team that likes to have fun a lot better than the Patriots.

sports.yahoo.com/rams-patriots-expected-two-third-152147362.html

It's predicted that the Pats get two 3rd round comp picks for losing Solder and Butler. Pretty nice!

Also a 5th for Amendola and a 7th for Fleming.


overthecap.com/projecting-the-2019-compensatory-picks/

So here's my non-Expert 1st crack at a 2019 Depth Analysis for the Defense. Caveats:

1. I don't watch film
2. Wasn't even able to watch all of the games
3. Many of these ideas are based off of stats (including total snap counts) and "expert" commentary
4. I admit it's VERY possible that I'm combining the information inappropriately (this would apply, specifically, to roles since I don't have snap counts per defensive package so I'm making some assumptions - some more significant than others)
5. I may not be spot on with terminology (using positions names, as an example, that one writer used and assuming that's how Bill/Brian think of them).

If the detail isn't spot on, I apologize in advance. I THINK the bigger picture is on point though.

I'll look at the defensive depth in terms of the positions that are necessary to fill the various packages NE seems to like to play (4-3 Base, 4-2-5 (CB as 5th DB), 4-2 Big Nickel (S as 5th DB). There is the goal line package ("Heavy") as well but I really have no idea who plays regularly in that (other than assuming the biggest DLs are in). I break down the positions (with the typical # of players active on a weekly basis) as follows:

DE - Trey Flowers (UFA), Deatrich Wise Jr, Adrian Clayborn - These are the bigger DEs that can/sometimes do reduce inside (Flowers isn't listed as big but does play some DT on passing downs). In an upcoming analysis, BSJ (Miguel Benzan) said he'll be listing implications of cutting some players and Clayborn will be on that list. Based on the last Q of the season, I could see him gone with Rivers/Davis fighting for the 3rd spot. Vet could be brought in cheap for competition. No idea what to do with/about Kamalu. Re-signing Flowers is CRITICAL

3T - Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler - not much to see here. Both are good for what they are. Can play inside in base. Butler inside on passing. Both outside in Goal Line (Heavy) packages.

NT - Malcom Brown (UFA), Danny Shelton (UFA) - I can actually see 1 of these guys coming back since neither did anything that would lead to them breaking the bank. At the same time, they are BOTH easily replaceable. Would just rather not have 2 absolute newcomers. This is an obvious spot for a draft pick.

E/LB - Kyle Van Noy, John Simon (UFA) - I've seen this position listed as Jack or Elephant. Bottom line, Van Noy fits in here. He's played DE in some packages and LB in others. My caveats apply to Simon here. I thought he was just a DE. Read in other places where he's listed as a LB. He doesn't move inside (I don't believe), is smaller and, in many ways, replaced Bentley (a LB) in the regular rotation. So I'm putting him here. Could be okay with just KVN I suppose (that's really what they opened the season with - unless you put Hightower here as well)

LB - Dont'a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, Ja'Whaun Bentley - These last 2 positions could be combined but, bc of Van Noy (for sure) and Simon (depending on where you want to list them) it seems like they deserve breaking them out. From a body count perspective, they probably could be combined in that you probably only need 4 between the 2 "positions" with at least 1 being able to play DE. I think Hightower had a "better than most people think" year but he will CERTAINLY be on the list of Cap Casualty/Restructuring guys. As indicated above, you could probably put him in the E/LB spot as well (and maybe they do). I like the potential of Sam but think he'll have to carve out a role on ST first (maybe replacing Humber)?

CB - Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty (UFA), Slot Jonathan Jones (RFA), JC Jackson - This is based on season totals. If we just focus on the 4th Q of the season and what I'm sure the playoffs will look like it's more like Gilmore, Jackson, Slot - JMac. Duke Dawson is likely the desired option at Slot for next year. Crossen showed some signs. I'd like McCourty back but as a backup while we transition to the younger backfield of Gilmore/Jackson/Dawson. Just think he's earned another shot at starting and won't stick around. Could see 1 of Jones/Crossen traded (Jones is a slot guy. Crossen, mostly on the outside. Not sure if he plays any slot) especially if a vet is brought in (or back, since Rowe might struggle to find a job and he might be perfect on a cheaper deal).

S - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon - This has been the most consistent grouping for the Pats but DMac will likely have to take a big pay cut for that to remain. Could see the draft being used as a source of youth infusion here. Melifonwu is intriguing but I don't think a spot is guaranteed.

Obviously I didn't include McClellan (DE), Humber (LB), King (LB), Ebner (S) as they are primarly ST guys who play defense in a pinch.

Summary - some areas of upgrade are obvious. Generally would like to see more athleticsm of course.

Offensive breakdown coming next.

On offense, the only caveat is whether one includes Patterson as a RB who splits out wide or a WR who lines up in the backfield. Despite some games where he was clearly a RB, he'll be listed as a RB.

QB - Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer. No change expected at the top of the depth chart (save for maybe his contract as I'd expect an extension to bring his cap hit down and, maybe, participation in the offseason program). It would NOT surprise me if NE waits on drafting a QB until next year (maybe even pushing some of this years picks forward) as the crop seems weak. Of course, they could draft a guy mid-to-late as a better development option than Etling but Danny's year in the program likely offsets any difference in talent so were probably not looking at much to get excited about. I'm assuming status quo for now (unless a younger backup becomes available but, again, likely not someone we'd get overly excited about.

RB - Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead. They could bring back Hill (UFA) if he's healthy or bring in a vet on a minimum deal but that's likely only training camp competition. Not much change expected.

FB - James Develin. I really wonder what they'll do when his time is up. Do they feel they need a FB (and would look for a replacement) or do they just know they have a great one so they build it into the office. Many group him in with the TEs (for obvious reasons) so his future "replacement" could be more of an H-Back type.

WR - Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon (RFA/SUS), Chris Hogan (UFA), Cordarrelle Patterson (UFA) and Phillip Dorsett (UFA) - Lot of change expected here. Gordon is out. Patterson could be a nice option to bring back given his versatility (WR/RB/KR). I think they like Berrios and many felt his placement on IR was due to the Foxboro Flu (fake injury so they don't have to cut him). It's a weird mix as Hogan was not great (being kind?) this year but he's the most flexible (Slot and Z) but Dorsett, when given the snaps, was more dependable. However, he really is only an X (and an undersized one at that). Would definitely think an infusion of talent/youth here is expected but impact is SO dependent on building Brady's trust and that's no easy task. Could, therefore, see one of Dorsett/Hogan actually being brought back as well. Don't think the AB discussion is worth it due to cost, fit and Steelers likely not wanting to improve NE.

TE - Rob Gronkowski (Retirement?), Dwayne Allen (Cap Casualty) and Jacob Hollister - Could easily see 3 new bodies here. I think they like Izzo but he's, at best, a replacement for Allen (blocking TE) right now. Hollister shows signs and can play on ST (likely a requirement for a 3rd TE) but he can't stay healthy and is inconsistent. Opportunities were there with Gronk and Allen having injuries but JH was a disappointment.

OT - Trent Brown (UFA), Marcus Cannon (Cap Casualty) and LaAdrian Waddle (UFA) - Isaiah Wynn will factor. I think they'd love him to take over LT and be able to re-sign Brown to play RT. Whoever is cheaper between a re-structured Cannon, a re-signed Waddle or a signed UFA would be the swing. They'd have to pay Brown as a LT though so this could go in a completely different direction. Could end up seeing 3 new bodies (including Wynn). The 4 T will likely be a guy with PS eligibility as they often swing between the inactive list (but on 53) to the Practice Squad.

Interior OL - Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason and Ted Karras. All signed. All good in their roles. No real benefit to re-structuring or cutting. As with OT, next guy will likely be someone who rotates between Inactive and Practice Squad. Despite continuity, I'd be shocked if an OL isn't drafted. Patriots draft Offensive Lineman.

Might as well add ST here. Ryan and Gostkowski are both UFAs. Some feel that, assuming Flowers is re-signed, Ghost is a candidate for the tag. He's inconsistent and will cost money but he's still better than SO many other options out there. Ryan is solid. Cardona will likely be back. And, of course, they'll be guys listed at other positions (and maybe even get a handful of O/D snaps throughout the season) who are core ST players. Slater, King, Ebner, McClellan (UFA) and Humber (UFA). Not sure there is much economic benefit to replacing the returnees. Sam, Melifonwu, Kamala, etc could factor. NE almost always signs a veteran Special Teamer to, at least, compete.

A significant number of those things will get resolved prior to the draft though. It's the beauty of the "order of operations" in the NFL Offseason Calendar. It allows most needs to be filled in Free Agency while address best player and/or future needs via the draft.

The Patriots picked 12 players in back to back drafts (2009-2010), and I'd argue their roster is in a similar spot now. Due to lost picks and bad drafts they desperately need a large influx of young players on rookie deals, and they have less roster locks than normal for next year. I'd be shocked if they stayed put with their picks (and didn't do multiple pick for player + lesser pick trades), but selecting 10+ players is probably the likely scenario this year.

And could the backend of those 2 lists have been signed as UDFA's if the Pat's hadn't drafed them?

I think the number of picks the Pats make is as much an editorial on their view of the draft in a given year and the value (or lack thereof) in what's being offered in trades than it is related to any roster spots that may or may not need filling (or need for infusion of youth/athleticism/etc).

You can't complain if they overdraft someone in the 6th and 7th rounds. It's the overdrafting guys like Wilson and Richards early in the draft that hurts. It's the they have such a small draft board that they overlook talent that hurts. Bill can be so great at drafting, yet he can do some really crazy puzzling things at the same time.

With regards to undrafted guys, so much about getting them is what are you willing to spend? Yea maybe some guys pick another team for fit or location. Yet if you really want them and will pay them the most you'll get most of your targets.