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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 26, 2019 5:20:03 GMT -5
Imagine Gordon gets to play and they lineup 4 wide with Edelman Gordon Thomas and Harry.... it’s fun to dream when the reality will Be Edelman hurt, Thomas a shell, Gordon Suspended and Harry a rookie That is a lot of weapons. Not to mention White out of the backfield. I don't see Gordon playing a snap on the Patriots this year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 5:54:37 GMT -5
Matt Miller at Bleacher Report LOVES Harry.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 6:19:42 GMT -5
I just keep thinking about Jace Sternberger running up the seem catching passes from Brady
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 8:03:33 GMT -5
My prediction is the Patriots only make 1 second round pick but they trade up to get someone they like. Then they trade back a little with their second pick to get ammo to trade back up from the end of the third round (97) and they end up making 3 earlier 3rds but they trade down from 101 to fill in the 4th and 5th rd gap... or perhaps they trade it for a 2020 pick.
So their 5 picks turn into one earlier second and 3 first half of the 3rd rd.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 26, 2019 9:51:16 GMT -5
I had put together a board which was simply cross referencing the Miller/Scout grades, separating them using Miller's predicted roles (Starter, Rookie Impact/Future Starter, Backup, Priority FA and Camp Body) and then narrowing it down using Perry's Protypical Patriots along with BSJs and NESN best fits.
Wasnt tracking the draft live and was surprised when I heard his name. But I went back and crossed off the guys who went 1-31 and, sure enough, he was right there as one of the best available "starter right away" guys.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Apr 26, 2019 10:12:51 GMT -5
Pardon my ignorance but what time does the draft resume?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 10:19:07 GMT -5
I will admit to over looking a guy like Harry based on fit. Bill has never drafted a WR even close to him and hasn't even brought in many Veterans like him. Was seen to have issues getting separation issues off the line and down the field. He ran an OK 40 time, yet skipped all short area drills, no 3 cone drill or short shuttle times. Which in my mind kinda reinforced the scouts worries about his ability to get open. The worry he's a Metcalf type guy.
Yet by doing that I overlooked that he's good in the open field in a way you don't see many big guys. Lots of yards after the catch with him. Which makes me wonder why he didn't do the short area drills even more now. He's not Metcalf, he can't be close to that bad and get YAC yards like that. Which is huge in our offense. The reason as much as I love Boykins I couldn't rate him higher, very similar type WR in a lot of ways, yet Boykins isn't a big YAC guy. Very pleasant surprise and I'm sure a huge reason they took him.
I will also add he lacked a lot of down field big play catches and red zone TDs that you'd expect for a guy like him. While seen as maybe a red flag, it might be more of his QBs just weren't good enough to fit the ball into tight windows which a guy like him needs. So as good as his numbers are he might have even more upside. I don't see how he isn't a beast in the Red Zone, which is something we really needed.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 10:19:33 GMT -5
Pardon my ignorance but what time does the draft resume? 7pm
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 10:53:32 GMT -5
I will admit to over looking a guy like Harry based on fit. Bill has never drafted a WR even close to him and hasn't even brought in many Veterans like him. Was seen to have issues getting separation issues off the line and down the field. He ran an OK 40 time, yet skipped all short area drills, no 3 cone drill or short shuttle times. Which in my mind kinda reinforced the scouts worries about his ability to get open. The worry he's a Metcalf type guy. Yet by doing that I overlooked that he's good in the open field in a way you don't see many big guys. Lots of yards after the catch with him. Which makes me wonder why he didn't do the short area drills even more now. He's not Metcalf, he can't be close to that bad and get YAC yards like that. Which is huge in our offense. The reason as much as I love Boykins I couldn't rate him higher, very similar type WR in a lot of ways, yet Boykins isn't a big YAC guy. Very pleasant surprise and I'm sure a huge reason they took him. I will also add he lacked a lot of down field big play catches and red zone TDs that you'd expect for a guy like him. While seen as maybe a red flag, it might be more of his QBs just weren't good enough to fit the ball into tight windows which a guy like him needs. So as good as his numbers are he might have even more upside. I don't see how he isn't a beast in the Red Zone, which is something we really needed. He ran a 6.89 3 cone at his pro-day which is pretty damn good for his size That’s from one source, but another has him just under 7 and another just over. So let’s say 7. Either way it’s pretty solid - not spectacular but solid especially for his size. I also think it’s safe to assume the Pats don’t use a first on him if his 3 cone was bad - and he did run 3 of them at his pro-day
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 10:53:41 GMT -5
Now things get interesting. I fully expect a TE in one of the two rounds, then who knows. I do expect a lot of trades, they always love the trade down 20 spots, then trade back up five spots. Getting a pick or two next year makes perfect sense as you get more lower picks. I'd also expect a pick swap where we get a Veteran.
The real question is do you stay true to your board and wait on a TE? Decent chance Smith and Sternberger are there late 2nd or just before that or move up and get your guy? I have zero issue moving up for Sternberger, he would really help take away another huge need. At the same time he might be there, though call on that one. I'm not the biggest Smith fan, but getting him mid second or later wouldn't be a bad thing either.
Kinda crazy the talent available and that we have five picks. Harry was a good start, but if we nail even 2-3 of today's picks it could be epic.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 10:57:42 GMT -5
I will admit to over looking a guy like Harry based on fit. Bill has never drafted a WR even close to him and hasn't even brought in many Veterans like him. Was seen to have issues getting separation issues off the line and down the field. He ran an OK 40 time, yet skipped all short area drills, no 3 cone drill or short shuttle times. Which in my mind kinda reinforced the scouts worries about his ability to get open. The worry he's a Metcalf type guy. Yet by doing that I overlooked that he's good in the open field in a way you don't see many big guys. Lots of yards after the catch with him. Which makes me wonder why he didn't do the short area drills even more now. He's not Metcalf, he can't be close to that bad and get YAC yards like that. Which is huge in our offense. The reason as much as I love Boykins I couldn't rate him higher, very similar type WR in a lot of ways, yet Boykins isn't a big YAC guy. Very pleasant surprise and I'm sure a huge reason they took him. I will also add he lacked a lot of down field big play catches and red zone TDs that you'd expect for a guy like him. While seen as maybe a red flag, it might be more of his QBs just weren't good enough to fit the ball into tight windows which a guy like him needs. So as good as his numbers are he might have even more upside. I don't see how he isn't a beast in the Red Zone, which is something we really needed. He ran a 6.89 3 cone at his pro-day which is pretty damn good for his size Yea it is, see I missed that. Makes a lot more sense now. That's better than a guy like Brown by a decent margin.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 10:59:31 GMT -5
He ran a 6.89 3 cone at his pro-day which is pretty damn good for his size Yea it is, see I missed that. Makes a lot more sense now. That's better than a guy like Brown by a decent margin. In case you missed it - i edited the post
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 26, 2019 12:01:59 GMT -5
Just noticed that the CBSSports analyst (Prisco?) gave the Pats a C+ fro drafting Harry. Said they really needed to draft an outside speed guy. And I'm thinking that except for Moss, they never really made the most use of that type of receiver when they had them (Cooks sort of but not really) while they love tough over the middle slot type guys. It must take a LOT of hubris to give Belichick a C+ though.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 12:28:04 GMT -5
Just noticed that the CBSSports analyst (Prisco?) gave the Pats a C+ fro drafting Harry. Said they really needed to draft an outside speed guy. And I'm thinking that except for Moss, they never really made the most use of that type of receiver when they had them (Cooks sort of but not really) while they love tough over the middle slot type guys. It must take a LOT of hubris to give Belichick a C+ though. One thing to keep in mind... Prisco is an idiot
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 13:03:22 GMT -5
There are a ton of outside speed guys left, you can get one in the third and fourth rounds in this draft. Yet your Dobson's, Johnson's, and Jackson's never did anything in our offense. You need to be more than just a big fast outside guy for us. Prisco probably wanted Metcalf and I wouldn't gamble on him to late second if at all.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 26, 2019 13:09:26 GMT -5
PFT saying Miami is close on a deal for Rosen (pick #48)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 13:27:54 GMT -5
I will admit to over looking a guy like Harry based on fit. Bill has never drafted a WR even close to him and hasn't even brought in many Veterans like him. Curious about your take on fit here. The Pats are generally never in a position to draft the #1 WR on their board (presumably) and generally are kind of stingy on skill position salaries. I always assumed the team never had this kind of receiver because of cost issues, be it draft capital or actual capital. Am I off base here and is it really just a matter of this type of guy not matching the Pat's offensive scheme? I think it's more opportunity cost. WRs are risky and the value in a first round pick is that 5th year option or at least a good amount of it. Now this year there weren't a lot of you should take this guy, the true value guys were gone. Big need, so I feel they loved Harry and took the risk. Plus recent reports said the Cardinals wanted him first pick of the second round. He fits, fills a big size issue long-term. Like they really needed a long-term red zone target and outside guy. A little surprised, but I like the pick. He is risky, all WRs are, but why not? Let's gamble on getting Brady a true #1 WR to end his career with. He might keep playing haha. I will be interested to find out if he was the target all along or a fall back guy. Almost feels like they targeted him which is good.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 13:55:19 GMT -5
Do we take a QB today? Rosen is the first one off the board now.
I love Drew Lock, shocked he doesn't go first round, yet Jones goes #6. Lock has some bust potential, yet he's also got a ton of upside. Most think best arm in draft, if not the best one of the best. Can move around, 50 career games, completion percentage went up four straight years, big time production in the SEC for three straight years. Your classic does he have the "it" factor guy. Mechanics and footwork need work and he wasn't great in big games. If he unlikely keeps falling I'd trade up. I'm not going to trade all the way up to the top few picks of the second though, that would cost a ton. Yet Patriots haven't had many chances at guys with Locks arm talent, upside, and production over the years. Kinda shocking a year after Jackson goes late first, Lock drops to the second in a weaker draft.
You could also be looking at Grier, Stidham, Finley, and maybe Thorson though I'd like him taken a little later in the draft.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 14:37:06 GMT -5
Interested to see where Taylor goes today. He was projected to the top 10 and now he’s in the second round. How bad is his injury? I’m tired of taking injury risks but at the same time, damn that’s some value at a position they could really use a guy long and short term.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 14:43:15 GMT -5
No problem.
One more thing to look at is those trades, they weren't that good and with so many already made it was likely hard. Only one trade was for a future pick, # 26 for #46, plus 2020 second rounder. Which isn't good value at all unless the Colts suck next year. Rule of thumb is discount one round, which means Washington lost over a hundred points and I don't see the Colts truly sucking next year. We saw so many trades because the cost was crazy low to move up late in the first.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2019 14:43:22 GMT -5
Now things get interesting. I fully expect a TE in one of the two rounds, then who knows. I do expect a lot of trades, they always love the trade down 20 spots, then trade back up five spots. Getting a pick or two next year makes perfect sense as you get more lower picks. I'd also expect a pick swap where we get a Veteran. The real question is do you stay true to your board and wait on a TE? Decent chance Smith and Sternberger are there late 2nd or just before that or move up and get your guy? I have zero issue moving up for Sternberger, he would really help take away another huge need. At the same time he might be there, though call on that one. I'm not the biggest Smith fan, but getting him mid second or later wouldn't be a bad thing either. Kinda crazy the talent available and that we have five picks. Harry was a good start, but if we nail even 2-3 of today's picks it could be epic. I'd trade package picks 56 and either 97 or 101 to move up for Smith if we have to, Alabama pedigree, Ben Watson comp... I really like the sound of that. I'd like Will Grier too but I wouldn't move up for him. Then we'd have two 3rds and a 4th to get Grier, an o-line guy and a d-line guy. Remaining picks could be used on developmental guys and special teamers. I know the Patriots don't think of the draft this way but as a fan its fun to think of it this way.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 14:59:53 GMT -5
Interested to see where Taylor goes today. He was projected to the top 10 and now he’s in the second round. How bad is his injury? I’m tired of taking injury risks but at the same time, damn that’s some value at a position they could really use a guy long and short term. I didn't find an injury, just two issues like back and knee were flagged, which could mean almost anything. Also his weight was an issue, came in like 15 pounds lighter for the draft process, but teams worry long-term. Frankly I think he was kinda overrated to begin with. None of the draft magazines had him top ten, two in the first, two in the second. More an upside guy than a ready to play right now top 10 pick. That being said, second round makes a lot of sense if he keeps dropping. There aren't a lot of swing OT that could help you next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 26, 2019 15:12:15 GMT -5
Now things get interesting. I fully expect a TE in one of the two rounds, then who knows. I do expect a lot of trades, they always love the trade down 20 spots, then trade back up five spots. Getting a pick or two next year makes perfect sense as you get more lower picks. I'd also expect a pick swap where we get a Veteran. The real question is do you stay true to your board and wait on a TE? Decent chance Smith and Sternberger are there late 2nd or just before that or move up and get your guy? I have zero issue moving up for Sternberger, he would really help take away another huge need. At the same time he might be there, though call on that one. I'm not the biggest Smith fan, but getting him mid second or later wouldn't be a bad thing either. Kinda crazy the talent available and that we have five picks. Harry was a good start, but if we nail even 2-3 of today's picks it could be epic. I'd trade package picks 56 and either 97 or 101 to move up for Smith if we have to, Alabama pedigree, Ben Watson comp... I really like the sound of that. I'd like Will Grier too but I wouldn't move up for him. Then we'd have two 3rds and a 4th to get Grier, an o-line guy and a d-line guy. Remaining picks could be used on developmental guys and special teamers. I know the Patriots don't think of the draft this way but as a fan its fun to think of it this way. I think that is exactly what the Patriots are debating. Most years they have few needs, not this year. It's just really a question of if they value certain guys like we do or the media has been. I'd take Sternberger over Smith, but either player fills a big need. If not those guys, that's where things get interesting. It's Bill so there will be a few moves that make us go WTF until we research the players more or see the overall plan.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2019 15:28:21 GMT -5
Interested to see where Taylor goes today. He was projected to the top 10 and now he’s in the second round. How bad is his injury? I’m tired of taking injury risks but at the same time, damn that’s some value at a position they could really use a guy long and short term. I didn't find an injury, just two issues like back and knee were flagged, which could mean almost anything. Also his weight was an issue, came in like 15 pounds lighter for the draft process, but teams worry long-term. Frankly I think he was kinda overrated to begin with. None of the draft magazines had him top ten, two in the first, two in the second. More an upside guy than a ready to play right now top 10 pick. That being said, second round makes a lot of sense if he keeps dropping. There aren't a lot of swing OT that could help you next year. On BR draft show last night they said there was a late leg injury with him. Not sure if it’s true or not but they said it on the show.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2019 15:29:25 GMT -5
Yeah I forgot about the inevitable reach for a safety pick Bill makes... sigh.
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