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2019 Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 11, 2019 23:07:33 GMT -5
He's the most talented basketball player on this team. He's also proven capable of being a great 2nd fiddle on a championship team (yes, it was Lebron but that doesnt mean it had to be). He's also proven capable of leading the Cs to great success (we seem to be forgetting how good they were at the beginning of his 1st season). The biggest negative is that he failed to lead a bunch of guys who didnt know their roles. That's not unimportant but it's likely not a situation he would be in next year. Its easy to put this season on him (when you're the #1 guy, that comes with the territory). But their were significant failures elsewhere as well. Yeap, which is why the Kyrie hate at every single post by a couple people of the board this past season was absolutely ridiculous. Awesome post Texs, per usual. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 3:16:47 GMT -5
What's the plan then for Irving to Nets? Like Durant and Irving made sense. Irving and Russell don't make any sense. Irving doesn't even really make sense for the Nets unless he could get a Durant to go there. Your problem is trying to make sense of Kyrie. Maybe he just wants to go home to his home town team. That’s the Nets for him not the Knicks. Kyrie can’t be understood. Do you really believe that? I'm going to Nets because it was my hometown team during high school? No matter what I don't buy that. Not like he was even born and raised in New Jersey with the Nets. We already have seen the Nets pitch to him, it was him and Durant. Reports said he was trying to help recruit Durant. So I think it matters. The guy changes his mind all the time and I guarantee you him and Durant teaming up was at the top of his list. If you want Irving back, your chances just improved. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2019 3:59:01 GMT -5
Your problem is trying to make sense of Kyrie. Maybe he just wants to go home to his home town team. That’s the Nets for him not the Knicks. Kyrie can’t be understood. Do you really believe that? I'm going to Nets because it was my hometown team during high school? No matter what I don't buy that. Not like he was even born and raised in New Jersey with the Nets. We already have seen the Nets pitch to him, it was him and Durant. Reports said he was trying to help recruit Durant. So I think it matters. The guy changes his mind all the time and I guarantee you him and Durant teaming up was at the top of his list. If you want Irving back, your chances just improved. I think you and RJP are both right. The chances of bringing back Kyrie just went up by a lot, especially if you trade for Anthony Davis before free agency. RJP is also right by saying Kyrie's reasonings for doing anything doesn't make sense to anyone else but Kyrie. It's the way he is. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2019 4:02:43 GMT -5
Doesn't Durant have a player option?
If this was MLB free agency, he'd be already opted into the player option with the achilles injury.
However, this is a special situation here in the NBA. Even with the achilles injury, some team would probably love to risk the chance at getting Durant and hope he's 100 percent by 2021 or something (that injury is going to take awhile). I can still see some team giving him the max contract for 4 years because of the talent.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 12, 2019 5:36:40 GMT -5
Your problem is trying to make sense of Kyrie. Maybe he just wants to go home to his home town team. That’s the Nets for him not the Knicks. Kyrie can’t be understood. Do you really believe that? I'm going to Nets because it was my hometown team during high school? No matter what I don't buy that. Not like he was even born and raised in New Jersey with the Nets. We already have seen the Nets pitch to him, it was him and Durant. Reports said he was trying to help recruit Durant. So I think it matters. The guy changes his mind all the time and I guarantee you him and Durant teaming up was at the top of his list. If you want Irving back, your chances just improved. What I believe is I have no clue so I don’t rule things out with Kyrie. I also don’t believe KD was ever going to Brooklyn so IF Kyrie is going there I think it had to be independent of KD. So it’s really about me not believing KD would go to Brooklyn therefor it Kyrie was/is to end up there then it’s for another reason. Don’t rule out this helping KD land somewhere, like Brooklyn when he wouldn’t before. If he fully ruptured his Achilles then giving him a max deal becomes silly. Smart teams won’t, but someone might and that someone could be a team like Brooklyn who wouldn’t have landed him otherwise. People are acting like an Achilles injury is the same as a knee injury... he’s also about to be 31 so he’s going to basically be 32 when he gets back and not back to some semblance of full health until he’s 33. Do we really think he’s returning to status as even a top 5 all-generational player like he just was? |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 7:54:36 GMT -5
Here on my thoughts on the impact of KD's injury to Kyrie's decision (all under the assumption that he could now just opt in):
- A reasonable aggregation of all of the rumors to date might lead one to believe (intentionally weekly worded since relying on rumors in ANY form is dangerous, especially with this guy) that Kyrie's goals are:
1. Play with KD in Brooklyn (whether likely or not)
2/3/4. Play with another star in Brooklyn or play with KD in NY or play with another star in NY (the order doesn't matter)
- What we have little to no meaningful information on is where playing in Boston (with our without AD, for example) fits in the next grouping of priorities. If KD stays put and neither of the teams can get the star, where would Kyrie prefer to be?
- As RJP alluded to, does this injury change the landscape of players doing these shorter deals to time the 10 Year Max perfectly? If so, the cap math now COULD favor Boston. In a shorter deal, the difference between a Boston offer and a Brooklyn/NY/Other one is almost negligible (see my post on one of the early pages). If a FULL term max, only Boston can offer that extra year. For someone with an injury history, that could be meaningful.
So definitely, Kyrie can't be understood (agree RJP) so any theories that combine logic with rumors is wonky, at best. But there IS a logic in there and the combination of rumors could actually be meaningful. Just don't want to leap to any conclusions.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 8:20:19 GMT -5
Decided to keep my thoughts on Boston and Kyrie separate so they can be reacted to separately.
Here is where my heads at (in case it's not obvious, this my opinion only):
I strongly believe that next year's Celtics team would be better with Kyrie on it than without. I believe many of the other failings can be resolved:
- I believe Brad will be better
- Terry would likely be gone and I think Morris would too. I think their roles in the problems of last year's team are being understated.
I don't think ANYONE could argue that losing Kyrie for nothing would set us back (how far? who knows.)
The reasons I flop on what I want are this:
- Even if you agree with my first point, is it enough to win with last year's team minus Rozier, minus Morris, plus a (hopefully) healthier Hayward and improvement from Tatum/Brown? My guess is no but I'm not 100%
- With Kyrie on the team, does that increase the likelihood that Danny goes all in on getting AD? If Danny wants him, I believe Davis is a Celtic. The question is how much of his asset grouping does he offer. With Kyrie on board, it might be too much.
- If we acquire AD and he doesn't agree to stay, we're left with Kyrie, Hayward, Horford and a significantly watered down supporting cast. The window would be 1 year and 1 year only. Some might say that Toronto did it but I'd argue that the risk was smaller bc most pundits were suggesting that they might have to blow it up after a couple of early exits. Instead of trading off one of their top players for picks/youth, they traded him off for a chance. And while they may not have know just HOW good he could be, they still had Siakam and his talents couldn't have come as a total surprise.
- The risk for Boston is, therefore, how does the C's team 2-3-4 years from now with Tatum/Brown/MemphisPick/Etc leading the way compare to a Kyrie lead team in those years? Especially when you consider the landscape of the NBA could be changing. Today's stars are starting to get older and/or hurt. No. The best of the best aren't ALL at the end of their careers but they'll likely get there before Boston's "youth movement" does.
- One last nugget: I'm not sure I want Terry on this team either way. Whatever anyone thinks about how good he is, Terry thinks he's better. He'd be a backup on a Kyrie lead team and he'll be unhappy. On a Kyrie-less team, I think he'd impact Brown/Tatum's development in a not-so-positive way.
Most of that won't matter as I think there is a lot working against Boston's ability to put together an Irving/Davis combination. I think we may have to get okay with that. And while it will sting, I do NOT agree that we're back to the Paul Pierce C's (before KG and Ray). I don't see a comparison bc the ceiling/floor of that team was pretty much set. Much higher ceiling for this team (of course, a much lower floor as well).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 11:51:22 GMT -5
Do you really believe that? I'm going to Nets because it was my hometown team during high school? No matter what I don't buy that. Not like he was even born and raised in New Jersey with the Nets. We already have seen the Nets pitch to him, it was him and Durant. Reports said he was trying to help recruit Durant. So I think it matters. The guy changes his mind all the time and I guarantee you him and Durant teaming up was at the top of his list. If you want Irving back, your chances just improved. What I believe is I have no clue so I don’t rule things out with Kyrie. I also don’t believe KD was ever going to Brooklyn so IF Kyrie is going there I think it had to be independent of KD. So it’s really about me not believing KD would go to Brooklyn therefor it Kyrie was/is to end up there then it’s for another reason. Don’t rule out this helping KD land somewhere, like Brooklyn when he wouldn’t before. If he fully ruptured his Achilles then giving him a max deal becomes silly. Smart teams won’t, but someone might and that someone could be a team like Brooklyn who wouldn’t have landed him otherwise. People are acting like an Achilles injury is the same as a knee injury... he’s also about to be 31 so he’s going to basically be 32 when he gets back and not back to some semblance of full health until he’s 33. Do we really think he’s returning to status as even a top 5 all-generational player like he just was? Agree to disagree on Durant to Nets, if he was thinking about the Knicks like almost everything applies to the Nets. They also have a much more ready to win cast of younger players, a few years a head of the Knicks. I think Durant was going to do his rounds and make a choice just like before. www.si.com/nba/2019/06/11/kevin-durant-achilles-injury-news-recovery-historyIt's a very serious injury and it's different from everyone. Kinda safe bet to say he likely not a top 5 going forward, but does that matter? Your not giving him a max if you think he's a top 20 guy for three years? That list kinda shows the better the athlete the better the chances for recovery. Like KD is a much better shooter than guys like Kobe and Gay, which shouldn't really help him still be a very good player. Maybe I missed something but wasn't this a three horse race? Knicks, Nets, and Warriors? Who doesn't offer him a max deal now? Just my two cents but the Knicks and Nets both still do it, it's worth the risk vs reward. Maybe the Warriors don't, but he could just rehab on his current contract and they can't replace him if he leaves. So if he wants to stay, do you risk a new deal or let him rehab and then leave? Like a poster said before max deals are a set amount. Guys like Hayward and Butler get the same as top five guys. So I think he easily gets a max level deal, from more than one team and it's not a bad gamble. I think the ripple effect is a lot bigger. Like does Irving still go to the Nets or Knicks knowing KD could miss the whole year? Do the Knicks now not trade for Davis? You can say Irving does things differently, but the guy has made somethings rather clear. He cares about winning and his legacy. I'm sure he wouldn't mind the Nets if like with LeBron going back to the Cavs gave him his best shot at winning or close to it. It's the reason the Nets cleared the cap space for two max free agents. Irving was always going to be a package deal. Him just joining that Nets team without another star or Russell makes zero sense. I'll give you major props if it happens, but I still believe he wants a team if he leaves the Celtics and that extra money, that at least in his mind is clearly better. He doesn't want the Celtic team he left beating him in the playoffs on his new team. That would really hurt his legacy. Irving litterally spends time debating if the world is flat. He's going crazy right now like Texas said and I think he can easily change his mind again. He changes his mind so much because he's always going over all these things in his head. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 12:15:41 GMT -5
Just my two cents but if you want Irving back go trade for Capela if the cost is right. I don't want to gut the team for Davis and I just see the Lakers offering a crazy package which now includes the 4th overall pick. Draft shooters in next week's draft. Like if Irving is back they matter a lot more. Then sign Rubio, so you can play Irving off the ball some of the time, while giving you a great pass first defensive back up PG for the second unit.
Like you need to make some big changes. Removing Morris and Rozier isn't going to fix a lot of the issues. The biggest issue has always been style of play, that requires different pieces. For two years the team plays differently with Irving then it does without him. More like the Cavs, a big like Capela who doesn't need the ball and can get you offensive rebounds and more shooters guys like Herro. Still not sold it would work, but it would line up better with the way Irving plays instead of a team full of guys that like to drive to the Basket. Just not my cup of tea, I love the team Basketball this team plays without Irving. How they move the ball and everyone is involved. I hate to lose him for nothing, but I also hate the idea of giving up what I watched in last year's playoffs.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 12:23:26 GMT -5
Does Capela really move the needle for Kyrie?
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 12, 2019 12:53:15 GMT -5
Removing Morris and Rozier isn't going to fix a lot of the issues. Yes it is. They were terrible this season, both by advanced metrics and by eye test. Upgrading on both the backup PG and the stretch 4 off the bench is going to help significantly. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 13:01:10 GMT -5
Does Capela really move the needle for Kyrie? If he's a smart and intelligent young man then it should. If you're into advanced stats it would be a rather big upgrade if it's built around Smart. If it doesn't that's okay, it's my try to keep him, yet still good move even if he leaves. Along with let's see if Hayward bounces back, if he doesn't we'll make a move with his contract. Danny is great at free agent pitches right? You just have to show him a path, along with that five year max deal and you should have a good chance. I'd hammer home he'll regret it when Tatum and Brown explode. Come prove your greatness! Like he wanted to be the man, it didn't work out. So do you give up and go team up with a better player? Or do you learn and improve? Become the player you told us you were. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 13:34:43 GMT -5
Removing Morris and Rozier isn't going to fix a lot of the issues. Yes it is. They were terrible this season, both by advanced metrics and by eye test. Upgrading on both the backup PG and the stretch 4 off the bench is going to help significantly. So what happened against the Bucks doesn't happen if you remove those two? I mean Morris is up and down, I'm not a fan overall. Yet he might have been our best player in that Bucks series. Upgrading from a Morris isn't easy for a bench guy. Same thing with Rozier. You can hope for better fits, yet the guy played like 80 minutes in 5 playoff games. The issues run a lot deeper. The starters didn't dominate and the bench killed us, the starters got killed during that series. Hayward was five times the issue Rozier was given all his minutes. Like bench Hayward play Brown, Morris and Semi it helps you a ton. Run some more plays for Tatum and Brown. Have Irving not take a million shots when guarded by four guys. Advanced numbers be damned with that team. As Tatum recently said they just never played as a team and that wasn't because of two bench players. Look at what Rozier did as a starter the last two years. Everyone loves you use that 17-0 run to show how great the Celtics were with Irving at one point. Yet even in a down year for Rozier they went 12-2 in games he started this year. Like advanced stats can't explain that. |
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Post by tizzle on Jun 12, 2019 16:07:36 GMT -5
With reports AD is saying he won't sign here, I really hope we don't mess around with that deal. Go young and build around Tatum, Brown, Smart. Hayward will be better next year and has some good years still ahead of him. That Memphis pick will be valuable. We should be able to get some talent in this draft.
Dealing Tatum for a year of AD likely means we're done contending for a while. I wouldn't gamble it all on trying to convince a guy who doesn't want to be here.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 16:18:52 GMT -5
I may be reading the wrong article but was that said? I thought Paul just indicated he'd go to Free Agency in 2020. That's the financially responsible thing to do (we saw with Kyrie how it would cost him money to sign an extension).
Unless I misread, the questions come down to:
1. Will his preferred teams have space in 2020. NY would likely be willing to wait (especially if KD just opts in) but LAL? They currently project to have about 39M in Cap room for 2020 and that wouldn't include a QO for Ingram (or an extension). So Lebron would have to be okay with not adding a player of significance (and the contract with term that comes with it) for 2019. Is he really willing to do that?
2. Would Davis/Paul not re-sign with Boston as a Free Agent out of spite?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 16:49:57 GMT -5
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Post by tizzle on Jun 12, 2019 17:10:46 GMT -5
Yeah, that's enough that I don't want to risk a 21 year old future All-Star, a 25 year old All-Defense guy and draft assets on trying to change the mind of a guy who's given me no indication he's open to saying here. Sounds like he wants LA or NY, which is 4 teams with cap space at the moment (and I know it'd be next year, but I have to believe a couple fo them will still have a max slot then). |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 17:45:34 GMT -5
Paul never says he wouldn't re-sign in Boston. Just says he'd head to Free Agency in 2020. By definition, that means you're only getting 1 year.
He then says IF AD leaves, dont blame Rich Paul.
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Post by tizzle on Jun 12, 2019 18:30:58 GMT -5
Paul never says he wouldn't re-sign in Boston. Just says he'd head to Free Agency in 2020. By definition, that means you're only getting 1 year. He then says IF AD leaves, dont blame Rich Paul. And iff we throw away our future for him and he predictably bolts in a year, you can try to make yourself feel better hanging onto that distinction. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 18:42:47 GMT -5
Didn't say what Danny SHOULD do (see my post from above).
Just suggesting that the Paul interview is not giving anyone new information so the risk is the same as it was before those statements came out. Also requesting that folks don't ignore context in these situations.
Agents are negotiators. They say only enough to try and get what they want. In this case, it's us (and/or media) that turn it into something else. At no point in that article does he say AD wouldn't re-sign in Boston and that's what people (including media) are turning it into.
He's making one last move to make the dream scenario come true (Lakers trade for AD while still having enough room to get another Max FA). Building a super team in 2020 becomes much more difficult (selling Lebron on waiting another year being #1 on the list). That's why all of that came out at the deadline (to push NO to make a deal before Boston could enter the mix) and now (to try and convince Danny to not go all in.
Context.
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Post by tizzle on Jun 12, 2019 18:49:03 GMT -5
Didn't say what Danny SHOULD do (see my post from above). Just suggesting that the Paul interview is not giving anyone new information so the risk is the same as it was before those statements came out. Also requesting that folks don't ignore context in these situations. Agents are negotiators. They say only enough to try and get what they want. In this case, it's us (and/or media) that turn it into something else. At no point in that article does he say AD wouldn't re-sign in Boston and that's what people (including media) are turning it into. He's making one last move to make the dream scenario come true (Lakers trade for AD while still having enough room to get another Max FA). Building a super team in 2020 becomes much more difficult (selling Lebron on waiting another year being #1 on the list). That's why all of that came out at the deadline (to push NO to make a deal before Boston could enter the mix) and now (to try and convince Danny to not go all in. Context. It's possible. But if so, it's extremely likely he wouldn't sign here anyway, if he wants to go to LA so bad he can just wait a year. I'm just saying it doesn't make a lot of sense to pay that kind of price for a guy on the hope that he's just saying he doesn't want to be here so he can get to LA, but if he does come here, he'll still end up signing here. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 18:59:32 GMT -5
Sure. But Lebron would have to wait too. LA cant add more salary to next years projection without losing a max space.
Do you think LBJ will be happy to just run it back with the same team plus some 1 year deals?
Maybe. But I have a hard time seeing that.
NY is the more likely team to wait on AD but they probably cant top LAL's best offer. So Paul wants Danny to move on so they can put this all together this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 19:10:08 GMT -5
Paul never says he wouldn't re-sign in Boston. Just says he'd head to Free Agency in 2020. By definition, that means you're only getting 1 year. He then says IF AD leaves, dont blame Rich Paul. He says only one year, if he resigns it would be more than one year. He's saying he won't resign. You can try and change his mind, it happens. Yet he is strongly implying Davis won't resign and doesn't want to be in Boston. Nevermind his Dad's comments about Thomas and disliking Boston because of that. |
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Post by tizzle on Jun 12, 2019 19:14:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure what choice you think LA has. If they can sign something like Kawhi and Kyrie, then fine. But much more likely they'll have the cap space to sign Davis in a year, whether they are happy about it or not.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 12, 2019 19:33:19 GMT -5
Paul never says he wouldn't re-sign in Boston. Just says he'd head to Free Agency in 2020. By definition, that means you're only getting 1 year. He then says IF AD leaves, dont blame Rich Paul. He says only one year, if he resigns it would be more than one year. He's saying he won't resign. You can try and change his mind, it happens. Yet he is strongly implying Davis won't resign and doesn't want to be in Boston. Nevermind his Dad's comments about Thomas and disliking Boston because of that. Keith Law would be so mad at you right now. When you trade for a pending FA your are trading for 1 year of service. By definition. After that, you are purchasing his services on the open market. |
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