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2019 Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by texs31 on Jun 26, 2019 16:16:44 GMT -5
So I have (and I pretty much just copy Keith Smith so . . . Keith has):
Hayward - 32,700,690
Smart - 12,553,572
Tatum - 7,830,000
Brown - 6,534,829
Yabu - 3,117,240
Langford (Hold) - 3,461,880
GWilliams (Hold) - 2,382,240
RWill - 1,937,520
Semi - 1,618,520 (Non Guaranteed)
That's 72,136, 491 for 9 players. So you have to add 2,691,474 for having an incomplete roster (3*897,158). Then the nominal 92,857 for DJax dead money.
That puts you at 74,920,822 which is 34M less than the cap. If you add Theis back in, his 1.8 comes back on the books (but removes 1 of those minimum holds for the incomplete roster) so you'd be at 33. Still enough to do a max but not the 34.
I hadn't seen the reports from those outlets but they could be confusing stories (no Theis for 34, but max slot even with Theis).
Based on the last time I tried to lay this out, I'm going to apologize in advance if I omitted something from the explanation. Again, it mirrors what Keith has laid out so I feel comfortable with the 34 only w/o Theis. Just may have forgotten something in my explanation above.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Jun 26, 2019 19:50:57 GMT -5
Derek Favors likely an unrestricted free agent, per rumors. Move the needle for anyone? Team declining 17M option.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 26, 2019 21:05:58 GMT -5
Not seeing any Celtics connections with Randle. Mostly New York Knicks connections there. He has interest going there too.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 27, 2019 4:21:28 GMT -5
So I have (and I pretty much just copy Keith Smith so . . . Keith has): Hayward - 32,700,690 Smart - 12,553,572 Tatum - 7,830,000 Brown - 6,534,829 Yabu - 3,117,240 Langford (Hold) - 3,461,880 GWilliams (Hold) - 2,382,240 RWill - 1,937,520 Semi - 1,618,520 (Non Guaranteed) That's 72,136, 491 for 9 players. So you have to add 2,691,474 for having an incomplete roster (3*897,158). Then the nominal 92,857 for DJax dead money. That puts you at 74,920,822 which is 34M less than the cap. If you add Theis back in, his 1.8 comes back on the books (but removes 1 of those minimum holds for the incomplete roster) so you'd be at 33. Still enough to do a max but not the 34. I hadn't seen the reports from those outlets but they could be confusing stories (no Theis for 34, but max slot even with Theis). Based on the last time I tried to lay this out, I'm going to apologize in advance if I omitted something from the explanation. Again, it mirrors what Keith has laid out so I feel comfortable with the 34 only w/o Theis. Just may have forgotten something in my explanation above. No they are clear as day 11 guys with Rozier hold, 25.8 million. Renounce Rozier 34 million, they must just not be adding back on the incomplete roster charge. Yet shame on them, it's insider information and it's dead wrong. It also matters because no money for Edwards then unless you dump Theis. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 27, 2019 4:36:06 GMT -5
Looking at some of the mechanics involved in Houston's pursuit of a sign-and-trade for Jimmy Butler and I've come to the conclusion that C's trading for Clint Capela CAN'T make sense if it's on the heals of signing Kemba using our cap space. Why? As @dangercart lays out, Houston can't get room to sign Butler while Paul is on the books and moving him is unlikely. Which is why they are pursuing S&Ts for him. On their end, they really need to move Capela and Gordon out (because they'd be hard capped via the S&T) and even then it's a little tight. Moving Tucker makes it cleaner. Certainly, however, you don't any 2 of those guys to Philly for Butler is probably too much to have to give up. So what Houston will want to do is trade each of those guys into space, while getting future draft picks in return. Then they can some subset of those picks (maybe it's the best 1 as Ryan suggests) and move it to Philly as part of the deal for Butler. That's where Boston comes in. To get both Walker and Capela, they'd have to sign Kemba to a max and then move out salary to get Capela. But Houston doesn't want that salary so they'd have to ship out what they received from Boston to Philly (and, assuming the deal would include Smart or Brown plus others I doubt Boston would want to do that). However, if Boston DOESN'T get Kemba (or use a significant amount of that cap room), they'd qualify as a team that could just take Capela into their cap space and give up a pick. Keeping Rozier would keep you in the game as well as CC would still fit into the 24M in room including TR's cap hold. Probably doesn't make a lot of sense. That being said, IF Kemba were to choose Boston, I DO wonder if they'd look to use Brown to get a big man (haven't even looked at who that could be). I love Brown but part of the allure is the contract. A contract which will could Zach Lavine like next year. And if he's still trying to find his offense with Kemba and Tatum higher on the pecking order and he's in the next grouping of tertiary scorers, are we going to HATE that contract and is it better used in a trade? Cart WAY before the horse, I grant you. Probably just have stopped with Houston mind dump. Getting Capela and Brogdon would be sweet. All you would need to do is renounce Rozier and Marcus Morris, then sign Brogdon to 21-24 million a year (probably closer to 21). Then you could trade some guys like Semi and Yabu to Houston and you'd be close to the space needed to absorb Capela's contract. Since Semi's contract isn't guarenteed, Houston could cut Semi and keep the extra space needed for Jimmy Butler. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 27, 2019 4:48:25 GMT -5
Derek Favors likely an unrestricted free agent, per rumors. Move the needle for anyone? Team declining 17M option. As a fallback option sure. Just what the market needed another center. I don't see how everyone gets paid. I've always really liked Favors and he might have just had his most efficient season. Like get him away from Gobert and he'd do even better at things like rebounding. He's also one of those rare guys that can guard both C and PFs really well. If teams go small you wouldn't have too and could kill them down low. I'd sign him in two seconds over trading for a guy like Adams. He'd likely cost about half as much. Frankly we should all be excited because I get the feeling RJP was right and we go Rozier and guys just like Favors. Danny opts for depth after missing out on the top guys. If no team would trade for one year at 17 million for Favors who has cap space. Like what does he cost? I can see a bunch of full mid-level deals. So a 3 year 36 or 4 year 48 might do it. Which isn't bad for a player of his Caliber. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 27, 2019 5:03:59 GMT -5
Looking at some of the mechanics involved in Houston's pursuit of a sign-and-trade for Jimmy Butler and I've come to the conclusion that C's trading for Clint Capela CAN'T make sense if it's on the heals of signing Kemba using our cap space. Why? As @dangercart lays out, Houston can't get room to sign Butler while Paul is on the books and moving him is unlikely. Which is why they are pursuing S&Ts for him. On their end, they really need to move Capela and Gordon out (because they'd be hard capped via the S&T) and even then it's a little tight. Moving Tucker makes it cleaner. Certainly, however, you don't any 2 of those guys to Philly for Butler is probably too much to have to give up. So what Houston will want to do is trade each of those guys into space, while getting future draft picks in return. Then they can some subset of those picks (maybe it's the best 1 as Ryan suggests) and move it to Philly as part of the deal for Butler. That's where Boston comes in. To get both Walker and Capela, they'd have to sign Kemba to a max and then move out salary to get Capela. But Houston doesn't want that salary so they'd have to ship out what they received from Boston to Philly (and, assuming the deal would include Smart or Brown plus others I doubt Boston would want to do that). However, if Boston DOESN'T get Kemba (or use a significant amount of that cap room), they'd qualify as a team that could just take Capela into their cap space and give up a pick. Keeping Rozier would keep you in the game as well as CC would still fit into the 24M in room including TR's cap hold. Probably doesn't make a lot of sense. That being said, IF Kemba were to choose Boston, I DO wonder if they'd look to use Brown to get a big man (haven't even looked at who that could be). I love Brown but part of the allure is the contract. A contract which will could Zach Lavine like next year. And if he's still trying to find his offense with Kemba and Tatum higher on the pecking order and he's in the next grouping of tertiary scorers, are we going to HATE that contract and is it better used in a trade? Cart WAY before the horse, I grant you. Probably just have stopped with Houston mind dump. Getting Capela and Brogdon would be sweet. All you would need to do is renounce Rozier and Marcus Morris, then sign Brogdon to 21-24 million a year (probably closer to 21). Then you could trade some guys like Semi and Yabu to Houston and you'd be close to the space needed to absorb Capela's contract. Since Semi's contract isn't guarenteed, Houston could cut Semi and keep the extra space needed for Jimmy Butler. Houston wants multiple first round picks for Capela. Houston can't create enough cap space, they need a third team with space to make it work. So them cutting Semi does nothing, nevermind NBA changed the rule. Only guarantee money counts in trades now. Do we really want to trade for Capela when you could just sign a guy like Favors? Different type players, but overall there impact is fairly close. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 27, 2019 5:22:57 GMT -5
Getting Capela and Brogdon would be sweet. All you would need to do is renounce Rozier and Marcus Morris, then sign Brogdon to 21-24 million a year (probably closer to 21). Then you could trade some guys like Semi and Yabu to Houston and you'd be close to the space needed to absorb Capela's contract. Since Semi's contract isn't guarenteed, Houston could cut Semi and keep the extra space needed for Jimmy Butler. Houston wants multiple first round picks for Capela. Houston can't create enough cap space, they need a third team with space to make it work. So them cutting Semi does nothing, nevermind NBA changed the rule. Only guarantee money counts in trades now. Do we really want to trade for Capela when you could just sign a guy like Favors? Different type players, but overall there impact is fairly close. Wasn't aware of the new rule, Houston is nuts if they think they are getting both first rounders (multiple) and cap space. There's too many bigs and options for teams to do that. The example of Favors you just pointed out is a good example. I'd be okay with Brogdon and Favors in that case. You can make it work if you sign Brogdon to 24 million a year, then sign Favors for 10 million a year. They're young and good enough to suit the Celtics needs. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 27, 2019 6:35:22 GMT -5
Not seeing any Celtics connections with Randle. Mostly New York Knicks connections there. He has interest going there too. Randle is goin to get a huge 1 year deal, maybe with a team option from a team that misses out on free agents and wants to roll cap space... that’s opinion obviously but he’s the perfect guy for that situation. The Knicks make sense because they are going to get spurned by the best free agents and maybe they’ve learned a lesson that it’s stupid to spend on guys like Noah and insert any number of bad deals here. So while it sucks for him that he’s not going to get a lot of guaranteed money he’s young enough that if he stays healthy he will make out long term. |
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Jun 27, 2019 7:44:08 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 7:59:04 GMT -5
Woj now reporting that Cs are the favorite for Kemba.
Which means I'm going to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to find a trade for a big man.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 27, 2019 8:11:48 GMT -5
Woj now reporting that Cs are the favorite for Kemba. Which means I'm going to spend an inordinate amount of time trying to find a trade for a big man. I wouldn’t waste much time including Brown in a deal for a big, I don’t see it happening. However, if it were to happen then start in Indiana. Jay King brought this up and they do make the most sense. 2 really good young bigs and they just drafted another. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to keep both Sabonis and Turner now. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 8:11:57 GMT -5
So if Kemba signs, that's 32.7 out of 34.9. Leaves 2.1.
Means 1 of 2 things:
You can keep Theis' hold and use part of the room exception to sign Edwards (and Waters).
Renounce Theis and use the space to sign Edwards. Then use the room exception to sign a big.
Of course, trades could follow as well.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 8:16:58 GMT -5
Indy is really the only team that I could think of.
Reports during the draft last year indicated that Danny liked Bamba (even some whispers around the trade deadline). And if Orlando keeps Vuc, he could be available.
That's not a deal that would involve Brown but another interesting big (further away then the Indy pair, granted)
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Jun 27, 2019 8:17:47 GMT -5
So if Kemba signs, that's 32.7 out of 34.9. Leaves 2.1. Means 1 of 2 things: You can keep Theis' hold and use part of the room exception to sign Edwards (and Waters). Renounce Theis and use the space to sign Edwards. Then use the room exception to sign a big. Of course, trades could follow as well. Bobby Marks numbers put it at $33.2M with Rozier renounced and Kemba signing a max that leaves $1.4M. Are we still waiting for an official cap number? I know sometimes that doesn't come until the last minute. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 8:25:14 GMT -5
He must have 1 of the smaller holds just still in there. My post above lays it out pretty clearly.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 27, 2019 10:05:26 GMT -5
Ok the issue here is max cap space versus how much you have to spend. Like Texas numbers are correct for max signing one guy. Yet the minute you sign him, an incomplete roster charge is removed. That's why in Marks video you go from 500K to 1.4 million to spend. So if you sign Walker you will have money left over and that's where that 34 ESPN is using comes from. They won't have 34 million in cap space with Theis, but they can spend 34 million.
Which is huge for Edwards, like we couldn't afford to break up that room exception. You'll need the best you can get with that money.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 10:49:52 GMT -5
As a point of reference, some of the better guys at the top of the 2nd round last year (including Okobo, Brunson and Robinsion) signed for deals starting between 1.2 and 1.5M. Most others start at the minimum.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 27, 2019 11:29:40 GMT -5
As a point of reference, some of the better guys at the top of the 2nd round last year (including Okobo, Brunson and Robinsion) signed for deals starting between 1.2 and 1.5M. Most others start at the minimum. Edwards will most likely command a deal similar to a late first round pick. My guess is they want to sign him for a 4 year deal as well... Waters is likely a 2 way contract this year so i don’t think you need to worry about space to sign him. |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 11:43:31 GMT -5
If my spreadsheet is working correctly, they'd have 1.355 after signing Kemba while keeping Theis. Most of that would be used on Edwards with the Room Exception being used to get another big guy.
If they dump Theis, they'd have 2.28 (Edwards and Waters??) plus the Room Exception.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 11:44:24 GMT -5
It may take me a few more years before I remember that 2-Ways are an avenue for late 2nd rounders. Gah.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Jun 27, 2019 11:58:48 GMT -5
I assumed that the reason they deferred the third first round pick was for cap savings; this sounds like that might not happen.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 12:06:24 GMT -5
A 1st vs a 2nd does provide a level of cap savings in that there is no hold in place for the latter. But they are not free. You still have to pay them and use the traditional cap mechanisms to do so (space or exceptions). You just can wait until all of your other business is done first.
With 1sts, the hold is on the books until their contract is. Either way, they take up space.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 27, 2019 13:21:39 GMT -5
Lakers have successfully moved Bonga, Wagner and Jones to Washington as part of the Davis deal. They'll now have a 3rd max slot.
Woj reporting
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 27, 2019 14:03:08 GMT -5
A 1st vs a 2nd does provide a level of cap savings in that there is no hold in place for the latter. But they are not free. You still have to pay them and use the traditional cap mechanisms to do so (space or exceptions). You just can wait until all of your other business is done first. With 1sts, the hold is on the books until their contract is. Either way, they take up space. To add to this, when trying to create cap space a first creates that cap hold so it’s worse. When you don’t have cap space, you can argue a first is better because you get to sign them without an effect on exception money whereas a second round pick you need to use space or part of your exceptions. |
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