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6/17-6/19 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 12:10:01 GMT -5
In 2014, the Royals were 44-45 vs. teams > .500 and won the World Series.
I'm seeing very little correlation that a record vs. teams > .500 is the be-all end-all determination for a season's success.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 12:12:43 GMT -5
In 2012, the Cardinals were 39-40 vs. teams > .500 and won the World Series as a Wild Card team.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 12:14:51 GMT -5
In 2011, the Cardinals (30-30) beat the Rangers (35-37) in the World Series.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 12:23:45 GMT -5
In 2015, the Mets were 28-38 vs. teams > .500 and made it to the World Series. That's fair, though the World Series winner was 47-43. And, just to be a dink, the Mets beat the Dodgers who were 28-37, but also the Cubs who were 44-32. The Mets also won their division and didn't have to worry about a 1-game play-in. Judging by the road record, that would have been a scary proposition. Not saying it's impossible, but I'd like to know they're capable of better and going 14-2 against teams that are 21-52, 26-47, 25-48,and 31-46 doesn't help the confidence.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 12:29:25 GMT -5
In 2014, the Royals were 44-45 vs. teams > .500 and won the World Series. I'm seeing very little correlation that a record vs. teams > .500 is the be-all end-all determination for a season's success. Giants won the World Series in 2014. The only year a WC2 team (or any of the WC teams of the new era actually) won the World Series. The Giants were 27-31. They beat the Pirates 33-39 Nationals 23-23 Cardinals 39-33 Royals 44-45 The only team that had a positive record got to the NLCS. It's still the only WC team to win the WS in the new WC era.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 12:32:12 GMT -5
Most of these numbers are also relatively close. Royals 44-45 Nationals 23-23 Giants 27-31 Rangers 35-37 et
that's still not 17-24. That's a much wider gap than hovering around .500.
And again, this disruption was spurred from me not being overly optimistic if they lost tonight which would then assume they're 17-25 for 8 games under. I said I was pleased if they win.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2019 12:33:30 GMT -5
Not saying it's impossible, But you do keep saying it, even though it's pretty clearly not impossible or particularly relevant. And so you realize that's why people have lost patience with that, yes?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 12:37:39 GMT -5
Not saying it's impossible, But you do keep saying it, and you realize that's why people have lost patience, no? I'm saying it's unlikely, but not impossible. The Raptors won an NBA title because Golden State went down with injuries and Kawhi hit a miracle buzzer beater against the 76ers. Replay those playoffs a thousand times and I bet Golden State wins probably 950 of them. Toronto won an unlikely title. So, could the Red Sox theoretically win if Blake Snell goes down with an elbow injury, the Yankees get ice cold top to bottom and win on a hopper that was mis-played? Sure. Judging by how they've performed against winning teams this season it hasn't been very encouraging other than, "anything can happen in October". That's the only silver lining. That and they're really good at beating bad teams and will likely get in because of it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 12:39:25 GMT -5
Some might be too young to remember, but the Red Sox came back and won when down 3-0 in the ALCS vs. the Yankees, despite having about 50 chances to lose over the next 4 games and 86 years of a curse hanging on their backs. There is absolutely nothing that is impossible in baseball and I won't accept that a season is over until it is mathematically over.
So for now, we can only hope that some of the teams the Red Sox lost to earlier in the season have their record fall below .500 as if somehow that makes the Red Sox better.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 12:44:04 GMT -5
Some might be too young to remember, but the Red Sox came back and won when down 3-0 in the ALCS vs. the Yankees, despite having about 50 chances to lose over the next 4 games and 86 years of a curse hanging on their backs. There is absolutely nothing that is impossible in baseball and I won't accept that a season is over until it is mathematically over. So for now, we can only hope that some of the teams the Red Sox lost to earlier in the season have their record fall below .500 as if somehow that makes the Red Sox better. As miraculous as that was, it's a feat that was never and has never been replicated. They beat the overwhelming odds, which was very thrilling to watch.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 19, 2019 13:01:37 GMT -5
The Yankees and Rays play each other like 11 times in the next month or something. Worst case scenario is that the Red Sox won't be falling far behind both of the two teams. Best case scenario is they pass one of the two teams. true... though the Yankees are starting to look healthy and locked back in now adding Stanton, Judge soon and Encarnacion who's already walked the parrot with them. They are dispatching the Rays with ease all series and just knocked Snell for 6 runs in 0.1 innings of pitching as they likely finish off the sweep. I don't mind if the Sox aren't the best every year, but if the Yankees prove to be the best team in the division that always sucks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2019 13:06:59 GMT -5
In 2012, the Cardinals were 39-40 vs. teams > .500 and won the World Series as a Wild Card team. You mean the Giants? They were the 2012 World Champs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2019 13:14:55 GMT -5
The Yankees and Rays play each other like 11 times in the next month or something. Worst case scenario is that the Red Sox won't be falling far behind both of the two teams. Best case scenario is they pass one of the two teams. true... though the Yankees are starting to look healthy and locked back in now adding Stanton, Judge soon and Encarnacion who's already walked the parrot with them. They are dispatching the Rays with ease all series and just knocked Snell for 6 runs in 0.1 innings of pitching as they likely finish off the sweep. I don't mind if the Sox aren't the best every year, but if the Yankees prove to be the best team in the division that always sucks. Yes. If the Red Sox get knocked out by TB or Houston or Cleveland or Minnesota or Oakland, it sucks, but OK - but if it's the Yankees who and/or eliminate them, that's a different story. Don't want them getting revenge for the pain and aggravation that the Red Sox inflicted on them last year. I want last year's story against the Yankees to be the new normal - time to aggravate the MFYers for 86 years.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 13:19:51 GMT -5
In 2012, the Cardinals were 39-40 vs. teams > .500 and won the World Series as a Wild Card team. You mean the Giants? They were the 2012 World Champs. I meant 2011.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 19, 2019 13:37:54 GMT -5
Let's see what tonight brings. Start if the next win streak, I'll bet 😀
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2019 13:47:56 GMT -5
It's all unlikely, relax and enjoy the season. If the Red Sox make the postseason, they have between a 5 and 20% chance of winning the World Series, no matter how good or bad they are.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 19, 2019 13:50:38 GMT -5
Some might be too young to remember, but the Red Sox came back and won when down 3-0 in the ALCS vs. the Yankees, despite having about 50 chances to lose over the next 4 games and 86 years of a curse hanging on their backs. There is absolutely nothing that is impossible in baseball and I won't accept that a season is over until it is mathematically over. So for now, we can only hope that some of the teams the Red Sox lost to earlier in the season have their record fall below .500 as if somehow that makes the Red Sox better. As miraculous as that was, it's a feat that was never and has never been replicated. They beat the overwhelming odds, which was very thrilling to watch. True, they only came back from a 3-1 deficit in 2007 against the Indians en route to another WS. That poor comeback gets seriously overshadowed by 2004 (and understandably so).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 19, 2019 13:53:02 GMT -5
But you do keep saying it, and you realize that's why people have lost patience, no? I'm saying it's unlikely, but not impossible. The Raptors won an NBA title because Golden State went down with injuries and Kawhi hit a miracle buzzer beater against the 76ers. Replay those playoffs a thousand times and I bet Golden State wins probably 950 of them. Toronto won an unlikely title. So, could the Red Sox theoretically win if Blake Snell goes down with an elbow injury, the Yankees get ice cold top to bottom and win on a hopper that was mis-played? Sure. Judging by how they've performed against winning teams this season it hasn't been very encouraging other than, "anything can happen in October". That's the only silver lining. That and they're really good at beating bad teams and will likely get in because of it. The thing is, when you only look at their record against winning teams, it might seem like you're learning something more meaningful, but all you're really doing is throwing away good data and reducing your sample size. I don't think the Red Sox had a magical ability to dispatch excellent teams last October, I don't think they've suddenly reversed the polarity on that this year. It's somewhat improbable that their distribution of wins against good teams breaks down that way, but improbable things happen all the time without there being any particular significance to them.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 19, 2019 14:04:46 GMT -5
Yeah in extra innings, but they had some really good quality innings out of really good arms in those middle innings. Edit- It was 2 runs of 11 inning ball, but point remains. What point? That the bullpens were pretty much identically good last night? 3 runs in 11.1 inning for the Red Sox bullpen? Great point. Twins bullpen is great, Red Sox bullpen is terrible, gave up almost the same amount of runs in a ridiculous number of innings. Definitely a bullpen problem that you've pointed out ad nasuem for 2 years now. What's next? A demand for better 17th inning relief pitchers? You got a unexpected great performance out of Josh Taylor. You need better depth. It's the main weakness of the team really, that and that 5th starter in the rotation at the moment. I can't wait to get the popcorn out and watch people freak out over a bullpen arm trade in July because the Sox are trying to win.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 14:07:28 GMT -5
I'm saying it's unlikely, but not impossible. The Raptors won an NBA title because Golden State went down with injuries and Kawhi hit a miracle buzzer beater against the 76ers. Replay those playoffs a thousand times and I bet Golden State wins probably 950 of them. Toronto won an unlikely title. So, could the Red Sox theoretically win if Blake Snell goes down with an elbow injury, the Yankees get ice cold top to bottom and win on a hopper that was mis-played? Sure. Judging by how they've performed against winning teams this season it hasn't been very encouraging other than, "anything can happen in October". That's the only silver lining. That and they're really good at beating bad teams and will likely get in because of it. The thing is, when you only look at their record against winning teams, it might seem like you're learning something more meaningful, but all you're really doing is throwing away good data and reducing your sample size. I don't think the Red Sox had a magical ability to dispatch excellent teams last October, I don't think they've suddenly reversed the polarity on that this year. It's somewhat improbable that their distribution of wins against good teams breaks down that way, but improbable things happen all the time without there being any particular significance to them. So you place no value that the team hasn't won a series against a winning team since 5/1, but are steam rolling the worst teams in baseball?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2019 14:14:35 GMT -5
As miraculous as that was, it's a feat that was never and has never been replicated. They beat the overwhelming odds, which was very thrilling to watch. True, they only came back from a 3-1 deficit in 2007 against the Indians en route to another WS. That poor comeback gets seriously overshadowed by 2004 (and understandably so). It was weird in that it there was some survival, but in totality it was domination. Game 5 was close for most of the game. Beckett gave up a run in the first and then the Sox nudged ahead 2-1 and he nursed that lead into the 7th and then the Sox got a couple of runs and broke it wide open in the 8th with 3 more. Then in Game 6, Drew hit the memorable grand slam. That game was a route from the get-go. Game 7 was really close. People probably forget that after building a 3-0 lead, Daisuke was dodging bullets in the 4th and 5th innings but had a 3-2 lead. Francona went to Okajima (who I feel has become a forgotten man in Red Sox history - but he was a fun and useful reliever for the Red Sox. Wish they had a lefty like him now for the pen.) The Indians had speedster Kenny Lofton on 2b with 2 outs. As an aside - Lofton was also involved in the 2004 Yankees ALCS meltdown against the Red Sox, a year after being on the Bartman Cubs of 03 and he made the last out of the Series that the Giants blew in 02 against the Angels, and was on the 99 Indians that blew the ALDS to the Sox and the 95 Indians that lost to the Braves - the guy never caught a break and deserves a lot more HOF consideration than he gets! Anyways, Franklin Gutierez hits a ball down the 3b line just fair and it hit off the box seats and jetted out into short LF where Manny sauntered after the ball. Lofton should have scored easily, but 3b coach Joel Skinner threw out the stop sign and Lofton stopped even though he could have practically have walked home with the tying run. So instead of the score being tied and momentum firmly on Cleveland's side - as the game had that feeling of a game slipping away, the Indians had 1st and 3rd and Okajima promptly got Casey Blake to bang into a 5-4-3 DP to preserve Boston's lead, which was ironic given that the Sox were banging into DP and DP and this time they got Cleveland to do so at the worst time. From there on, Cleveland got unnerved. Blake made an error against Ellsbury leading off the Boston 7th and one out later I remember hoping Pedroia could give the Sox a sac fly. Instead he launched that memorable shot off of Betancourt - I'm sure we all remember that one! Then the Indians got the first two guys on in the 8th and Francona went to Papelbon who ended the inning giving up a long fly out to Garko. Then the Sox put the game away with 6 runs in the 8th, an RBI hit by Drew, a bases clearing double by Pedroia, and a Coke Bottles blast by Youkilis. Crisp ended the game with a spectacular catch in the triangle against Blake. So the final was 11-2, so if you add up the 3 games you get 30-5 Boston (it would extend to 59-15 adding in Colorado) , but it was as close as it could get given those numbers. I always felt that the 2007 title was kind of the Jan Brady of the titles - at least until the Sox got their 4th title (only 3 Brady sisters so the analogy doesn't work anymore!). It's still the forgotten/underappreciated title that the Sox have had in their recent history.
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 19, 2019 14:16:22 GMT -5
I've seen too much baseball to take anything for granted in or out. Prime example in 1973 an 82 win Mets team gets hot down the stretch and rides hot pitching and timely hitting to the 7th game of the WS. The current Red Sox team needs to stay in the race and peak at the right time. Having everybody healthy with Sale and Price pitching their best end of season would help a whole lot.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 19, 2019 14:19:17 GMT -5
The thing is, when you only look at their record against winning teams, it might seem like you're learning something more meaningful, but all you're really doing is throwing away good data and reducing your sample size. I don't think the Red Sox had a magical ability to dispatch excellent teams last October, I don't think they've suddenly reversed the polarity on that this year. It's somewhat improbable that their distribution of wins against good teams breaks down that way, but improbable things happen all the time without there being any particular significance to them. So you place no value that the team hasn't won a series against a winning team since 5/1, but are steam rolling the worst teams in baseball? Not really, no.
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Post by p23w on Jun 19, 2019 14:57:17 GMT -5
I really want the Sox to win tonight. A convincing win would go a long way. Do what they did to LA, after the 18 inning game 3 loss.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 19, 2019 15:04:08 GMT -5
So you place no value that the team hasn't won a series against a winning team since 5/1, but are steam rolling the worst teams in baseball? Not really, no. I think bad teams are bad for a reason. Kind of weird that not beating higher level of competition doesn't mean anything.
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