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2019 Patriots Regular season thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2019 11:22:04 GMT -5
Sanders at a much higher salary and a rental basically went for a late 3rd and Sanu went for a late 2nd. That’s the market right now. You can prefer Sanders and I get it, but Sanders is older, has had injury issues the last 2 years and hurt his knee a couple weeks ago... he’s back playing but his durability has to be a concern.
Agree to disagree on Tate... he used to be a 1ish but this year and last he doesn’t look like the same guy and he’s 31. He’s good - don’t get me wrong and he’s look good here. I look at him and Sanu similarly as far as a rating goes not on playing style.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 23, 2019 12:09:44 GMT -5
You could use an upgrade at WR to protect against injuries, add depth and just in case Gordon can't make it a full season. Sanu can be a #2 in a way Dorsett doesn't seem able too. Meyers, White and Watson all got more targets with Gordon out than Dorsett. Fully healthy you now have Meyers and Dorsett as your #4 and #5 WRs. If you can fix the OL you could go five WRs and see if a team has enough DBs to cover those guys. WR made sense. Yet I still think they got the wrong guy. Like Sanu can be a quality #2, but Sanders was more like a #1. He cost less in trade and likely nets a high comp pick. Now Sanders did cost like 3 million more, basically the difference if you trade Bennett. So we'll see if they plan on keeping Bennett or making another move that they needed money for. That could certainly change the way this trade looks. Yet a 2nd round pick still seems crazy for what Sanu is. Like next year you'll make Meyers and Harry, guys that are very similar to Sanu. So I don't get paying so much for an extra year. The Broncos are so bad that 5th round pick will be very high and that 4th will likely be rather low. It's like trading a 3rd and a 6th round pick, knowing you likely get back a 3rd or 4th in a year if he leaves. Is 6.5 million really a team friendly amount for Sanu? For example Golden Tate just got 4 years 37 million, just over 9 million a year. He's twice the WR Sanu is in my book, he's a #1 not a #2. Jones a very good slot CB, played great against Tate, yet Tate still made huge plays in that game. Now maybe I'm wrong, but I've never seen Sanu as that type of WR. Yet I felt Sanders was that guy. Like Edelman, it doesn't matter who defends them, they can still make plays. Solid addition, yet I thought the cost would be like a 4th for a guy like Sanu, maybe a third because of an extra year, not a 2nd though. Sanders was a #1 quality WR a few years ago but I don't think he's on that level currently or going forward. He's still probably a better player and fit than Sanu, but I'm guessing salary and durability decided this one. I do think a 2nd round pick is a clear overpay fwiw. For the record, since the 2017 season, Sanu has been just as productive. He's played more games (but he probably will moving forward as well), and he's also been in a much better passing offense with a clearly superior QB, but he's also had to play a smaller role. The numbers the last 2.5 seasons: Sanders 148-234, 63.2 catch%, 1790 yds (12.09 Y/R) Sanu 166-232, 71.6 catch %, 1854 yds (11.17 Y/R) Also, Sanders can't bring back a 3rd or 4th rd comp pick, the best case scenario would be a 2021 5th rd comp pick since he'll be a 10 year vet. Sanu PFF rating the last five years 60.2, 71.6, 76.8, 74.6, and 56.9 Sanders PFF rating the last five years 79.7, 81.1, 68.1, 81.5, and 81.9 For some context Julian Edelman was 70.1, 75.2, 0 missed the year, 76.9, and 84.7 |
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 23, 2019 12:43:03 GMT -5
Patriots have been trying to get Sanu for awhile so he just seems to be one of their guys. Same with Sanders though, they signed him to a restricted free agent deal the Steelers matched a long time ago. I will go with Sanu given that he will be hear for 2 years and I think yes the salary is a bargain. Sanu could be the guy that becomes a goto safe throw for Tom. We shall see, Tom has made a lot of guys look really good. |
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Post by texs31 on Oct 23, 2019 13:59:46 GMT -5
Tomlinson released to make room for Sanu
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Post by texs31 on Oct 23, 2019 14:03:36 GMT -5
My take on the Sanu acquisition (fwiw):
The Pats don't run too many 4 WR sets so you, for this year, you are adding whatever increase in production there is over your 3rd best option. It's not like you're purely adding his Catches, Yards, TDs to the mix. You're likely decreasing the number one of the top 3 guys gets. So what value does that hold?
Now with Sanu, you are ALSO acquiring (at least the flexibility) to keep him in the mix for next year (when Gordon/Dorsett are FAs and Edelman has another year of wear and tear on him and may need a contract restructure). That has value that a rental can't provide you.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2019 15:06:39 GMT -5
My take on the Sanu acquisition (fwiw): The Pats don't run too many 4 WR sets so you, for this year, you are adding whatever increase in production there is over your 3rd best option. It's not like you're purely adding his Catches, Yards, TDs to the mix. You're likely decreasing the number one of the top 3 guys gets. So what value does that hold? Now with Sanu, you are ALSO acquiring (at least the flexibility) to keep him in the mix for next year (when Gordon/Dorsett are FAs and Edelman has another year of wear and tear on him and may need a contract restructure). That has value that a rental can't provide you. This is a bit muddy because they haven’t had many games this year where they were healthy enough to run 4 WR sets. It seemed like when they got Brown they wanted to try and run more of those. I don’t think it will be a huge aspect of their offense but it will be more than in the past considering the tight end situation and Burkheads injury. We could say they don’t run a lot of 2 back sets but early when white and Burkhead were both healthy they added that. All that being said - this is a depth move to help save them from being completely screwed there because they teeter on looking really good versus really thin. |
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Post by texs31 on Oct 23, 2019 15:15:46 GMT -5
On Burkhead/White, weren't they splitting White out? I wonder if, in the breakouts, they still consider that a 2 RB set or consider White a WR (probably doesn't really matter).
My only point was that the added value of an extra year for Sanu (where he's currently #2 on the Depth Chart and 1 of only 2 "soon to be second year players) had value that explains some of the difference in acquisition cost (as does Sanders higher cap hit and/or convincing the other team to help out on the contract front).
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Post by texs31 on Oct 23, 2019 15:17:45 GMT -5
Wondering if the next move isn't an INTERIOR lineman. Yes OT can be perceived as a need but with Wynn coming back, you wonder if they just ride it out and see if Newhouse/Cannon/Cunningham can't figure it out.
Meanwhile Thuney seems to have been good but Karras has struggled (expected in a starting role??) and Mason hasn't been himself (Bedard wonders if both he and Cannon haven't been fighting something from the beginning).
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Post by texs31 on Oct 23, 2019 15:52:27 GMT -5
There you go.
Josh Gordon to IR per Rapp and others.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2019 16:11:15 GMT -5
There you go. Josh Gordon to IR per Rapp and others. Rough - this feels odd to me but he wasn’t making a huge impact when he was on the field so I wonder if there was even more that we don’t know about previous to his injury. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2019 16:12:50 GMT -5
On Burkhead/White, weren't they splitting White out? I wonder if, in the breakouts, they still consider that a 2 RB set or consider White a WR (probably doesn't really matter). My only point was that the added value of an extra year for Sanu (where he's currently #2 on the Depth Chart and 1 of only 2 "soon to be second year players) had value that explains some of the difference in acquisition cost (as does Sanders higher cap hit and/or convincing the other team to help out on the contract front). They would split them both out wide and move one or both back and forth. It would be nice to see how they can build off it. But Burkhead is made of glass. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2019 16:42:11 GMT -5
Sad it seems like Gordon is going to end up getting healthy this year and likely getting his release to sign elsewhere... i still maintain he hasn’t been great or explosive but I root for him and want him as a Patriot.
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Post by texs31 on Oct 24, 2019 6:25:35 GMT -5
Reports that Mason has restructured his deal (Jason at Over The Cap)
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Post by texs31 on Oct 24, 2019 6:50:06 GMT -5
According to the Pats official twitter, Eric Tomlinson has NOT been released.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2019 8:34:12 GMT -5
According to the Pats official twitter, Eric Tomlinson has NOT been released. The Gordon move to IR didn’t require it... I’m still really disappointed about Gordon on an emotional level. Non-emotionally, I do feel it’s the right move for the team as I’ve been clear on my opinion of his effectiveness. |
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Post by texs31 on Oct 24, 2019 9:43:30 GMT -5
I thought I had a good handle on what went down prior to this though:
- The acquisition of Sanu may have pushed Gordon down to #4 on the depth chart with Meyers showing some trustworthy signs and your 1st rounder close to returning (your 5th and 6th guys)
- The acquisition of Sanu also put you at or over the Cap. Even if you're "compliant", you need some room to navigate the rest of the year (additional trade acquisitions, replacements for a very likely additional IR assignment, etc)
- Gordon's Cap # is completely erasable. Once he's off the team, so is his remaining Cap Charge
- NE believes he'll be healthy/good enough to warrant concern should competitor sign him after his release so you put him on IR (which, if he's not 100%, you might need to do anyway to avoid an injury grievance/settlement). After the trade deadline, he'd be subject to waivers where, ideally, a non-competitor claims him.
The announcement that Tomlinson was released and then the follow-up seems to muddy that a bit though. If it was as straight forward as the above, why initially release Tomlinson to create room for Sanu?
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
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Post by mobaz on Oct 24, 2019 10:00:00 GMT -5
Mike Reiss theorizes that something happened during the day Wednesday for them to change course on Gordon. Possible (and could be as simple as differing medical opinions).
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2019 11:37:01 GMT -5
It’s also possible that they got the mason contract stuff worked out so they didn’t need to cut Tomlinson.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 24, 2019 12:25:01 GMT -5
I'm so confused. If you don't think he's good enough, why are you worried about him going to the good teams? You will save about a million dollars. You would save almost three million by trading Bennett.
Puzzling move that is for sure unless something happened that we don't know about. Yet it does remove the worry that you build an offense where he's key and then he gets suspended again. I will hold off on really judging this till after the deadline. Yet you can't use his money for a trade, because you need to wait till after the deadline to release him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2019 12:41:52 GMT -5
Who’s worried about him going to good teams? You can’t release a guy with an injury so the team had no choice - it just works out that the soonest they can’t release him at this point is after the deadline.
My hope is this is a good sign for Harry. If Harry comes back then they needed to move on from a receiver. It was either Gordon or Gunner.
If they released Bennett, I would be pissed.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2019 13:28:02 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Oct 24, 2019 13:33:29 GMT -5
Even though rjp's "can't release a guy with an injury" likely overrides everything else I'd just add that "Not good enough to be more than the 4th WR on THIS team" and "Good enough to help a competitor" aren't really mutually exclusive concepts, are they?
Wouldn't Gordon fit in the top 3 of all of the other AFC playoff contenders?
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2019 13:56:25 GMT -5
Even though rjp's "can't release a guy with an injury" likely overrides everything else I'd just add that "Not good enough to be more than the 4th WR on THIS team" and "Good enough to help a competitor" aren't really mutually exclusive concepts, are they? Wouldn't Gordon fit in the top 3 of all of the other AFC playoff contenders? How hurt is Watkins? He doesn’t fit KCs top 3 when accounting for him. He may not fit even when you don’t. It’s questionable he’s better than Baltimore’s top 3 as well... Brown, Boykin and Snead... he’s a veteran and there are 2 rookies there but I’m just saying there’s an argument. Houston and Indy he could help and Buffalo I suppose if they are really a contender. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 24, 2019 14:07:45 GMT -5
Who’s worried about him going to good teams? You can’t release a guy with an injury so the team had no choice - it just works out that the soonest they can’t release him at this point is after the deadline. My hope is this is a good sign for Harry. If Harry comes back then they needed to move on from a receiver. It was either Gordon or Gunner. If they released Bennett, I would be pissed. You can certainly release a guy that is injured. They even have a special tag for it and it usually involves an injury settlement. Yet you almost never see a case like this, where the guy is almost healthy. Where are you getting they can't release a player while injured? You almost never see it happen during the regular season for a ton of reasons, yet it happens on cutdown day all the time. The reason you wait are because after the deadline instead of being a free agent, he has to pass through waivers. So he likely gets claimed by a crappy team. Who's worried? The Patriots and Bill. If you gave Gordon the choice of his release, while giving up money free to sign with any team versus going on waivers I think it's easy to guess what one he would pick. So this whole IR thing seems designed so he has to pass through waivers over him being free to sign with any team. |
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Post by texs31 on Oct 24, 2019 14:09:22 GMT -5
I guess I'm be swayed by Stats on Baltimore but that could be Jackson running more than throwing.
My original version of the post excluded KC. Not sure why they escaped my "re-write".
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