SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2019-20 Boston Celtics Season
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 8:41:51 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that the C's look like they are going to get the short end of the stick once again when it comes to getting a lottery pick via trade. Last year the Kings pick conveyed a lot lower than anyone thought as they almost made the playoffs and now things look like they will repeat themselves with the Grizz pick. The Grizz have gone 9-6 over their last 15 games and are even winning on the road against good teams. I know it is early and they are young yadayadayada but they also have zero reason to tank and plenty of motivation to win. I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs at this point. It looks like they may have had some luck with the Romeo pick so who knows maybe they get somebody good but it would have been nice to get real lucky and get a top 3 pick from one of those picks. But as I have mentioned before, the Celts have been snake bitten when it comes to luck and the draft for a long long time. They Celtics have had 4 picks (3 so far) that have been hopeful high lottery picks via trade. So far they have ended up with the following: 3rd overall (Jaylen Brown) 1st overall (Jason Tatum) 13th (Romeo Langford) TBD I mean if this is snake bitten then get me some snakes...
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 10:24:51 GMT -5
Ok so with JB and Tatum I will agree but getting the 13th pick from Sac. was bad luck. Romeo dropping was good luck but that has yet to play out. He looks good from what little we have seen but fact is we have seen very little and he has been injury prone so far. We can hope for the best for sure.
Len Bias Reggie Lewis Tim Duncan Kevin Durant
Just to name a few that were very bad luck. The C's went over 25 years having zero luck when it came to the ping pong balls and we can count on 1 hand the number of all stars that were drafted since Kevin McHale in 1980. C's have drafted 3 players who went to all star games since 1980 and that includes the current roster. Hopefully that will change soon. Their are your snakes.
AND who would have thought Memphis would be doing this? One more snake for you.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 10:36:37 GMT -5
Forty years and Walker, Pierce and Billups are the only picks that went to an all-star game. And Billups did it for another team because Pitino didn't like him and the C's didn't get much for a future all-star.
edit. I left Rajon Rondo off the list as I missed the fact it was a draft day trade. So you have to count him as it is the same as drafting him.
edit #2. Missed Joe Johnson also, once again a guy they traded quickly in what turned out to be a bad deal.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 6, 2020 10:48:15 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that the C's look like they are going to get the short end of the stick once again when it comes to getting a lottery pick via trade. Last year the Kings pick conveyed a lot lower than anyone thought as they almost made the playoffs and now things look like they will repeat themselves with the Grizz pick. The Grizz have gone 9-6 over their last 15 games and are even winning on the road against good teams. I know it is early and they are young yadayadayada but they also have zero reason to tank and plenty of motivation to win. I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs at this point. It looks like they may have had some luck with the Romeo pick so who knows maybe they get somebody good but it would have been nice to get real lucky and get a top 3 pick from one of those picks. But as I have mentioned before, the Celts have been snake bitten when it comes to luck and the draft for a long long time. It'll still be a top 10 pick imo, but the value of the pick is plummeting by the day. It's going to convey unless Memphis hits a lottery ball. That would also not be ideal either because that'll mean Memphis will have had 2 lottery balls in the last two years and they could be really decent if that happens. So they're unprotected pick next year if it happened would also lose value. The Celtics are probably going to trade this pick. I'd almost bank on that happening.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 11:22:10 GMT -5
One thing we can all agree on is that the C's look like they are going to get the short end of the stick once again when it comes to getting a lottery pick via trade. Last year the Kings pick conveyed a lot lower than anyone thought as they almost made the playoffs and now things look like they will repeat themselves with the Grizz pick. The Grizz have gone 9-6 over their last 15 games and are even winning on the road against good teams. I know it is early and they are young yadayadayada but they also have zero reason to tank and plenty of motivation to win. I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs at this point. It looks like they may have had some luck with the Romeo pick so who knows maybe they get somebody good but it would have been nice to get real lucky and get a top 3 pick from one of those picks. But as I have mentioned before, the Celts have been snake bitten when it comes to luck and the draft for a long long time. It'll still be a top 10 pick imo, but the value of the pick is plummeting by the day. It's going to convey unless Memphis hits a lottery ball. That would also not be ideal either because that'll mean Memphis will have had 2 lottery balls in the last two years and they could be really decent if that happens. So they're unprotected pick next year if it happened would also lose value. The Celtics are probably going to trade this pick. I'd almost bank on that happening. Top 10 at this point would be nice but they are trending towards the playoffs. Considering the fact that many teams will start tanking and they won't makes a HUGE difference!!!! You just can't under estimate how much that matters as it has become acceptable for teams to do it. The new lottery odds give even more teams the motivation to tank as the chances have increased for teams to jump up. They just went 9 and 6 with 5 of those wins on the road and one was an absolute beat down of the Clippers. Then they win the next day on the road again, they win back to back on the road, they aren't going away. I hope I am wrong but this is the current reality.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 6, 2020 12:07:21 GMT -5
If the Celtics keep that pick, at best it'll be a draft and stash guy. They just don't have the room on the roster for more draft picks to come through. They're only losing Kanter this free agency, and the Celtics will probably want to bring him back, to be honest.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 12:13:45 GMT -5
If the Celtics keep that pick, at best it'll be a draft and stash guy. They just don't have the room on the roster for more draft picks to come through. They're only losing Kanter this free agency, and the Celtics will probably want to bring him back, to be honest. Yup, most likely. I think Kanter will want to stay also.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 13:02:38 GMT -5
Really struggling to see who they would trade that pick for. You don't trade it for a expiring contract.
Meanwhile, as far as their being no room . . . not sure about that. Counting the 2-way guys and the projected picks, there are 19 "players" up for spots:
1. Fall will likely get no more than another 2-Way deal 2. Wanamaker is RFA and is earning himself some money/time but is that necessarily with Boston (if no injuries, is he in the rotation?). Would his minutes be better served to Edwards (hopefully with more confidence next year), Waters and/or Langford? 3. As indicted previously, Green has been a fun story but is his Non-Guaranteed contract REALLY getting in the way of adding a higher-end prospect? 4. Poirier isn't getting in the way of a higher-end prospect. His deal is guaranteed but . . . 5. C's have an option on Ojeleye and he has played well at points. But he's also recorded some DNP-CDs. He is what he is and may be redundant to GWill. 6. I think it's more likely that Boston uses one of the lower picks (Milwaukee's or their own) along with a player (some of the above mentioned guys perhaps) to trade this deadline (a shooter?) 7. I'm very interested in what happens with Hayward. If he stays healthy and productive for the rest of the year, will he opt out? If he DOES opt out, to what end? He could lower his cap number with Boston in exchange for more years (what we thought Horford would do) or could he think he's worth another big deal (albeit less than max). OR, does he think his C's career has been one big Karma A## Kicking and decide he needs a fresh start. I think he's leaving which is why it's last on the list but few thought Al was leaving and look what happened.
It's just not going to surprise me 1 bit if the rotation looks like:
Walker/Smart/Waters Brown/Edwards Theis/RWilliams/Kanter Hayward/GWill Tatum/Langford
With Mem and either Bos/Mil as the development guys and Tacko and a 2nd rounder or Camp Guy as 2-Ways
That being said, this draft would seem to be a better 1 for draft-and-stash candidates in that late lottery range. Killian Hayes, RJ Hampton, Theo Maledon are right there so Boston wouldn't have to drop in talent to take a guy that they could leave overseas.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 13:45:59 GMT -5
I like what you are saying but if all of those guys are on the roster next yr it is 12 guys for about 155 or so million right? That would be the highest in the NBA and they would need to add at least 2 guys. Is this a problem?
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 15:01:23 GMT -5
If you get 4 cracks at high lottery picks and you end up at 1, 3, 13 and between 8-13 then I think you made out really well. If you got 3 top 3 picks that’d just be unreal positive luck.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 15:05:14 GMT -5
Depending on what happens with Kanter, that roster above would be 14 players (including the 2 draft picks) with a Cap Total of 146M (including Kanter's hold) + whatever Waters gets. Maybe a couple more million as what the rookies sign for is often a bit higher than their holds. So 150?? Add in a minimum contract to get to 15 players and you're probably just over the 150 but under the 155 you suggest (nitpicking only for completeness)
As to how that compares, using Keith Smith's projections (he uses 538 projections for Draft Order and makes "logical" guesses on what players/teams will do with options and FA Holds), Boston will enter the offseason with $153M in money towards the cap (7.6M of which is based on holds for Kanter and Wanamaker). That is the 14th highest number in the league. Now that is a bit misleading as many of those with higher totals have a LOT MORE in Cap Holds (Denver, at #1 for example has 202M) but half of that is holds (including 40M for Millsap).
By (extreme) comparison, if every team renounces their FAs (including Boston), the Celtics would have the 4th highest number (note, this wouldn't account for incomplete roster holds but you get the picture).
The quick answer there is that it'll be hard to say where a 150-155M cap total will fall. Denver likely won't have 202 (even if they keep Millsap, it'll be at a number less than 40) but it won't be 100M either. Bottom line, though, I don't think C's would end up the highest.
Again, the larger issue is who is worth trading the Memphis pick for. You're not doing it for an expiring contract. So it's for someone with term who fills a current need as well as a long-term one. Given what they'd be willing to package with it and what is likely available, who is that?? I can't think of any worth names.
Instead, they're more likely to package some salary(Poirier, Ojeleye?) with one of their late 1st rounders to improve the roster. Too much can happen between the trade deadline and the end of the regular season to risk seeing that Memphis pick become unprotected. And for what?
Meanwhile, room can be found on the roster for a mid-1st. Enough so that you're not trading it away just bc of headcount.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 15:54:36 GMT -5
What are you using for Hayward and Tatums salaries and like I said I think Kanter will earn a raise or opt out.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 6, 2020 16:14:21 GMT -5
It's not really the roster space I have so much of a issue with TEXS, it's more of a issue of minutes given to these guys. That might not be much of a problem in whoever the rookie is in his first year here, but it might be a problem down the line.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 16:25:06 GMT -5
Sure but opportunities open up as the years go on (injuries, players leaving, etc). Their roster will be so top heavy with Kemba, Jaylen, Jayson and maybe even Hayward, that high end talent at a much cheaper price will be critical for depth and to keep it going as players start to age and become FAs.
In terms of stashing, a lotto pick is not going to want to be stashed for multiple years (unless it's Fran Vazquez) so THAT option isn't helping either.
Now, if you're saying that they may trade the pick come draft time (when they know what it is and more players may become available) or at a point in the offseason (before or after the player has signed), that might make more sense (I hadn't considered that when I first replied).
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 16:34:06 GMT -5
Voice,
Smith projects that Hayward will opt in so his number is 34.2. If he opts out, it will only go down. It could be 0 if he leaves or some number less than his current # (in exchange for more years). I'm not sure it's reasonable to think Boston would give him a contract bigger than his current one (based on cap hit, anyway).
As for Tatum, his number is 9.9. I think that's etched in stone. An extension will only impact his 2021-22 number (just like Brown's number for this year remained untouched).
I was only counting Kanter's cap hold assuming he opts out. Yes, he's likely making more but that gets into all the ambiguity that I mentioned regarding other teams' cap holds. We have 0 idea what his cap hit will be if he opts out and re-signs.
But if we're talking about where Boston's likely 2021 Cap # falls relative to the league, we can't take a guess at HIS number while assuming all other FAs (for other teams) are at 0 and/or remain at their hold #. The point here is that Boston should be in the Top 10 but I'd be surprised if it's tops in the league.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 6, 2020 16:48:51 GMT -5
FORGOT!! That the ext wouldn't count til the following yr, my bad.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 6, 2020 17:16:24 GMT -5
Yeah, no way Hayward opts out at this point unless he lights it up in the playoffs. Season is almost halfway done and his numbers are way down accross the board. He needs to stay healthy next year in order to get another good deal possibly.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,862
|
Post by wcp3 on Jan 6, 2020 19:27:43 GMT -5
Oh look, another game where Brad doesn’t have his team even remotely ready to play.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,862
|
Post by wcp3 on Jan 6, 2020 20:06:37 GMT -5
You cannot say enough bad things about this team. They don’t realize they’re not good enough to coast, and they’re getting punked by an atrocious team that has tons of injuries. Pathetic.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 20:33:50 GMT -5
Yeah, no way Hayward opts out at this point unless he lights it up in the playoffs. Season is almost halfway done and his numbers are way down accross the board. He needs to stay healthy next year in order to get another good deal possibly. I dont agree entirely. We tend to assume that when a player opts out, it's to get a bigger contract (cap hit). But that's not always the case. However this season ends for him, he could look to get more total money (spread across more years) in exchange for 1 yr and the uncertainty that comes. For example, if he stays healthy and performs as he has when hes played this year, I think a multi year deal at 20-25 is a no brainer. With opt outs, that could be more desirable to him than the 1 yr at max level plus the uncertain future. Let's say its 3 yrs at about 20 per with the 3rd being another ETO. That guarantees him 60 with the ability to hit the market only 1 yr later than "planned" if he comes back fully. If hes still not the player he was, hes still made more money.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 20:35:11 GMT -5
I’m not upset about Jaylen Brown getting better at the line.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 20:36:40 GMT -5
Yeah, no way Hayward opts out at this point unless he lights it up in the playoffs. Season is almost halfway done and his numbers are way down accross the board. He needs to stay healthy next year in order to get another good deal possibly. I dont agree entirely. We tend to assume that when a player opts out, it's to get a bigger contract (cap hit). But that's not always the case. However this season ends for him, he could look to get more total money (spread across more years) in exchange for 1 yr and the uncertainty that comes. For example, if he stays healthy and performs as he has when hes played this year, I think a multi year deal at 20-25 is a no brainer. With opt outs, that could be more desirable to him than the 1 yr at max level plus the uncertain future. Let's say its 3 yrs at about 20 per with the 3rd being another ETO. That guarantees him 60 with the ability to hit the market only 1 yr later than "planned" if he comes back fully. If hes still not the player he was, hes still made more money. True but a lot of teams will hoard cap space this summer to have it for next year so there will be stupid contracts handed out by the losers.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jan 6, 2020 20:39:30 GMT -5
I dont agree entirely. We tend to assume that when a player opts out, it's to get a bigger contract (cap hit). But that's not always the case. However this season ends for him, he could look to get more total money (spread across more years) in exchange for 1 yr and the uncertainty that comes. For example, if he stays healthy and performs as he has when hes played this year, I think a multi year deal at 20-25 is a no brainer. With opt outs, that could be more desirable to him than the 1 yr at max level plus the uncertain future. Let's say its 3 yrs at about 20 per with the 3rd being another ETO. That guarantees him 60 with the ability to hit the market only 1 yr later than "planned" if he comes back fully. If hes still not the player he was, hes still made more money. True but a lot of teams will hoard cap space this summer to have it for next year so there will be stupid contracts handed out by the losers. In my example, the Cs do that contract.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 20:40:06 GMT -5
The Celtic have 10 assists with 4 minutes left in the 3rd... ooof
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2020 20:40:49 GMT -5
True but a lot of teams will hoard cap space this summer to have it for next year so there will be stupid contracts handed out by the losers. In my example, the Cs do that contract. I know just saying there’s pretty good reason for him to opt in and hit that market.
|
|
|