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Post by philarhody on Nov 26, 2020 11:46:38 GMT -5
Umass, What do you see as Turner’s strengths and weaknesses? What do you see as Thompson’s strengths and weaknesses? I've done that on Turner a bunch of times already and I did it on Thompson also. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Umass, I love your passion. Does it give you any hesitation that, in a pick and roll league, Turner has major issues switching and even hedging on ball screens? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 26, 2020 19:40:17 GMT -5
A couple things: - the entire Celtics center rotation makes less than Turner - TT was not Danny’s first choice after Hayward left, they tried to sign Millsap first. Now this is reading the tea leafs, yet I think Danny's plan was Turner, Holiday and Millsap. I think he wanted Millsap to take Williams minutes as he's much more of a PF and we add shooting. Which if he pulled it off would have been one hell of an off-season. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 26, 2020 19:42:36 GMT -5
I've done that on Turner a bunch of times already and I did it on Thompson also. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Umass, I love your passion. Does it give you any hesitation that, in a pick and roll league, Turner has major issues switching and even hedging on ball screens? Look at the article I posted a page back. In 2019 Turner did the 5th most pick and rolls in the league and was very good at it. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 27, 2020 22:51:28 GMT -5
Charlotte offered 120 million over 4 years for Hayward. What's the holdup in announcing that?
Supposedly Danny is trying to work a deal for a trade exception...but what leverage does he have?? After losing out to Turner and a first round pick...it seems none...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 3:16:34 GMT -5
No leverage. Yet doing a trade means no dead cap of Batum 9 million over three years. How they do it will be interesting, many different ways.
I wouldn't assume it's just a large exception either. That seems simple, this is taking forever.
Say it's just an exception, what's that worth to the Celtics? Some team needs something rather big for taking on 27 million.
Wouldn't be surprised if this turns into some huge deal, like four teams. With Batum, Zeller and/or Rozier involved.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 6:56:37 GMT -5
It can easily go back to them waiving Batum and the Celtics dealing a second for the trade exception, but Charlotte has every reason to try for something else
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 7:32:18 GMT -5
I thought it would be fun to put together a list and discuss them. Something like:
“Biggest questions heading into the season?” I’d rather not get into a quibbling about “ranking” on said list but more about the subject and it’s potential impact. I won’t rank this questions, but to start here are some questions:
- Kemba Walkers health?
- What is Thompson’s impact on a contender and did terrible PG play and being surrounded by awful defenders at the Point and on the wing contribute to his lack of defense?
- Can Nesmith and/or Pritchard make an impact, if so how?
- Can Grant Williams continue his improvement as a shooter?
- Can Robert Williams become an impact 25 minute a night guy? What’s he need to improve to do that?
- Can Tatum lock into a top 10 player in the league (all NBA second team?)
- Will Jaylen be an All-star this year and get All-NBA mentions?
- Will Teague help make the second unit more effective by giving a real PG on the floor or is he old on the downside?
- Is Langfords latest injury going to derail his season and development?
I realize this is a lot of questions and I’m sure I’m missing some - any one else have any other questions they are asking themselves headed into the year?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862 
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Post by cdj on Nov 28, 2020 9:15:39 GMT -5
The Cavs had a D-rating of 120 with him off the court, he knows how to play defense. He was the only thing that made them NOT a complete laughing stock on that end of the floor last year.
He’s great at switching and doesn’t look like a fish out of water when he’s forced to defend the perimeter. He was a key part of that title team because he could switch on to GS guards without looking like a clown
I honestly don’t know where this “Tristan Thompson can’t defend” narrative is coming from. He’s a better defender than TimeLord and people think TimeLord is a defensive specialist ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by texs31 on Nov 28, 2020 11:17:38 GMT -5
Regardless of how it's done (straight signing or sign and trade), Charlotte has to get rid of 8-9 million.
So in a sign and trade, the Hornets still have to find someone to take on that or a comparable salary. Boston, I would hope, has ZERO interest in doing that (they'd get a MUCH smaller exception and have to deal with Batum's contract).
The simplest move would be to find a team with room (not sure there are any left) or an exception (OKC has been mentioned) to take on Batum's cap hit. Of course, that team will need to be compensated for doing so.
So the negotiations come down to
1. How much is Boston willing to pay (in draft picks) to get an exception and
2. How much is Charlotte willing to pay (picks) to not have Batum's dead money on their books.
That's probably not a straight forward discussion.
There are other possibilities that could be stretching this out:
1. Is there another deal that has been announced but not completed that BOS/CHA could loop into to get this done (e.g. is Horford done yet?)
2. As UMass suggested, is this going to turn into a deal that moves more players to and from Boston/Charlotte/3rd team?
Outside of a major surprise, I'd think Bostons current roster is set and we likely shouldn't expect changes. So it's likely a move that wont impact Boston presently (only a matter of what picks they lose and how big of an exception, if any).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 11:49:44 GMT -5
Regardless of how it's done (straight signing or sign and trade), Charlotte has to get rid of 8-9 million. So in a sign and trade, the Hornets still have to find someone to take on that or a comparable salary. Boston, I would hope, has ZERO interest in doing that (they'd get a MUCH smaller exception and have to deal with Batum's contract). The simplest move would be to find a team with room (not sure there are any left) or an exception (OKC has been mentioned) to take on Batum's cap hit. Of course, that team will need to be compensated for doing so. So the negotiations come down to 1. How much is Boston willing to pay (in draft picks) to get an exception and 2. How much is Charlotte willing to pay (picks) to not have Batum's dead money on their books. That's probably not a straight forward discussion. There are other possibilities that could be stretching this out: 1. Is there another deal that has been announced but not completed that BOS/CHA could loop into to get this done (e.g. is Horford done yet?) 2. As UMass suggested, is this going to turn into a deal that moves more players to and from Boston/Charlotte/3rd team? Outside of a major surprise, I'd think Bostons current roster is set and we likely shouldn't expect changes. So it's likely a move that wont impact Boston presently (only a matter of what picks they lose and how big of an exception, if any). The Celtics can’t take Batums contract since they can’t go over the Tax line, due to the TT contract, so that’s not a concern. I am assuming TT’s contract isn’t official yet so Boston can sign Hayward then trade him. I don’t know how that would work if he was already signed using the non tax payer MLE. I think they can technically fit Rozier or could if Semi was traded as part of the deal... which if they take a player they need to send out a player because their roster is maxed. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 11:57:52 GMT -5
The Cavs had a D-rating of 120 with him off the court, he knows how to play defense. He was the only thing that made them NOT a complete laughing stock on that end of the floor last year. He’s great at switching and doesn’t look like a fish out of water when he’s forced to defend the perimeter. He was a key part of that title team because he could switch on to GS guards without looking like a clown I honestly don’t know where this “Tristan Thompson can’t defend” narrative is coming from. He’s a better defender than TimeLord and people think TimeLord is a defensive specialist ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ What I like about TT is his energy level. He reminded me of Smart, those are the types of guys who pick teams up when they are struggling or low energy. I can imagine some lineups with Smart, Thompson and Grant Williams really causing defensive chaos... i wonder if they’ll pair that trio with Jaylen and Jason at all. Would be an interesting combo |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 12:39:09 GMT -5
That's what I was talking about, the Thunder exception. They can do it, yet they aren't paying Batum 27 million and killing that exception for a few second round picks. Seen speculation of that Hornets send assets and we do, with speculation it could be two seconds and Edwards. Hornets send a few and maybe an asset. Yet if I'm the Thunder is that enough? I can see them getting more at the deadline helping a contender make some stupid move or next year.
Which is likely why they are looking at other options. Seen them getting Horford, then off loading Zeller and/or Rozier on other teams. That's getting complicated, yet starts to make sense. I'm sure the Thunder would love to get out of the last three years of Horfords deal for an expiring deal. Reports the Clippers want Rozier and might use Beverly and Williams to make it happen. Nevermind if the Celtics have a target they might want.
Either they are working on something big or at the minimum turning over ever rock because just compensating the Thunder is easy.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 28, 2020 13:12:43 GMT -5
Is compensating OKC easy? What do they get for facilitating a deal? Who gives up more value to make it happen?
Hard enough for 2 teams to agree on value let alone 3.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 13:15:10 GMT -5
The Cavs had a D-rating of 120 with him off the court, he knows how to play defense. He was the only thing that made them NOT a complete laughing stock on that end of the floor last year. He’s great at switching and doesn’t look like a fish out of water when he’s forced to defend the perimeter. He was a key part of that title team because he could switch on to GS guards without looking like a clown I honestly don’t know where this “Tristan Thompson can’t defend” narrative is coming from. He’s a better defender than TimeLord and people think TimeLord is a defensive specialist ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Kevin Love, Larry Nance, John Henson and Drummond all had better defensive numbers as bigs last year. Drummond's came onto the same team, with the same players and put up a 107 defensive rating in eight games. That championship team rotated starts between TT and TM, TM had better defensive numbers. You are focusing on one part of D and acting like the rest doesn't matter. It's not that TT sucks or is even bad on D. Yet he is limited and isn't close to the monster you make him sound like. Two parts to D, guarding your guy and playing team D. This whole time you've just focused on guarding his player, a centers biggest impact is team D. Theis wasn't a monster on D last year, second in the league not because of his one on one D. It was his team D, him not allowing the four other positions to get easy baskets. The easiest shots in the game. It was the basis of our D last year, take away the easy shots, force them to make harder ones. Kanter wasn't horrible guarding guys like Embiid, his team D was non-existent though. You can hope Stevens can coach up TT and get him to do things he's never done well. We've seen that before more than once. Yet that's what you need, not that TT is a monster on D. For his career so far he's best against low post scorers. He likes to get physical. His impact is much less if a team doesn't have one and there aren't a ton in this league now a days. Also remember Golden State with KD, they took him right out of the game. A big reason being he doesn't have a low post game to punish those smaller guys at the other end and isn't quick enough to guard them. You keep picking on Turner and Robert Williams because you keep focusing on only one part of a centers responsibility on D. Gobert isn't a monster on D year after year because he stops centers from scoring, his biggest impact is stopping the four other positions from scoring in the paint. You either do that by blocking shots like Gobert, Turner, Robert Williams or like Theis literally challenging everything in the paint like your life depends on it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 13:30:27 GMT -5
Is compensating OKC easy? What do they get for facilitating a deal? Who gives up more value to make it happen? Hard enough for 2 teams to agree on value let alone 3. If it's a three team deal, Batum to Thunder, Hayward to Hornets and trade exception to Boston. It's easy as in the only team needing to be compensated is the Thunder. You get a price and meet it or not. The only debate is how the Hornets and Celtics split the cost. The only hard part is likely meeting the asking price. Like I said earlier, if I was the Thunder the cost would need to be high. I'm not doing it for a few second round picks. Which is why earlier I asked what is the trade exception worth to the Celtics? Given how simple that is and the length of time this is taking, I'm guessing they want a bunch, which they should. So Danny is likely looking at other options that cost less. Nevermind the Hornets after getting Hayward have to be motivated to improve right? The internet is full of crazy ideas involving a handful of teams. It feels like Danny's coaching MJ on how to improve his team because it benefits him. Danny once again shooting for a great deal, which I don't blame him for as long as it gets done. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 13:45:46 GMT -5
If Charlotte can get out of Batums deal the calculus shifts to them having to give up more because stretching him is a god awful option for them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 14:06:05 GMT -5
The idea I've see that makes a ton of sense is Zeller to Thunder using exception along with a few second round picks. Then Hayward to Hornets, trade exception to Celtics. Then Batum for Horford. That way a large chunk of the cost for the Thunder using the exception is trading Horford for an expiring deal and they still have part of it. Yet the Thunder might want to rebuild Horfords value and try another Westbrook/Paul trade, while still having a huge trade exception. So who knows what the Thunder want to do.
This is all crazy to start with, as Charlotte should be rebuilding and clearing space to add guys before the draft picks get paid. MJ is a horrible owner. Never seen a team do so many stupid things to try and make the playoffs as an 7/8th seed.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 14:22:38 GMT -5
The idea I've see that makes a ton of sense is Zeller to Thunder using exception along with a few second round picks. Then Hayward to Hornets, trade exception to Celtics. Then Batum for Horford. That way a large chunk of the cost for the Thunder using the exception is trading Horford for an expiring deal and they still have part of it. Yet the Thunder might want to rebuild Horfords value and try another Westbrook/Paul trade, while still having a huge trade exception. So who knows what the Thunder want to do. This is all crazy to start with, as Charlotte should be rebuilding and clearing space to add guys before the draft picks get paid. MJ is a horrible owner. Never seen a team do so many stupid things to try and make the playoffs as an 7/8th seed. First they are being stupid, but I’m not so sure they should be clearing cap space. Cap space for a team like them is less valuable as you likely aren’t attracting big free agents HOWEVER, if you aren’t clearing space then you want tradable contracts so you can make deals for guys that you couldn’t otherwise sign. And they aren’t really signing tradable contracts. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 14:23:27 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 14:36:19 GMT -5
The idea I've see that makes a ton of sense is Zeller to Thunder using exception along with a few second round picks. Then Hayward to Hornets, trade exception to Celtics. Then Batum for Horford. That way a large chunk of the cost for the Thunder using the exception is trading Horford for an expiring deal and they still have part of it. Yet the Thunder might want to rebuild Horfords value and try another Westbrook/Paul trade, while still having a huge trade exception. So who knows what the Thunder want to do. This is all crazy to start with, as Charlotte should be rebuilding and clearing space to add guys before the draft picks get paid. MJ is a horrible owner. Never seen a team do so many stupid things to try and make the playoffs as an 7/8th seed. First they are being stupid, but I’m not so sure they should be clearing cap space. Cap space for a team like them is less valuable as you likely aren’t attracting big free agents HOWEVER, if you aren’t clearing space then you want tradable contracts so you can make deals for guys that you couldn’t otherwise sign. And they aren’t really signing tradable contracts. By clearing space I mean in a year or two, not taking on four year deals. They should be acting like the Thunder if your taking on contract's. You do it for assets, young players and picks. Not trying to win. They have two great contracts to trade in Zeller and Batum. They almost cleared up the last mess and are already doing it again. Yet what do I know. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 15:07:27 GMT -5
Get back to RJPs question. I would have said Grant and Robert Williams, Langford and Edwards as keys.
Yet if no Walker and Langford to start the year, things get crazy interesting. I'm also assuming Steven's takes it easy on minutes to start the year given the short period of rest the players had. So if that happens you'll see a bunch of Nesmith and Pritchard just by default.
The biggest opportunities are likely Grant Williams and Carson Edwards. They could have an opportunity for big minutes early. I think Grant improves, yet Edwards could be the surprise if he's learned to play off the ball. Heck me might get some opportunities with the ball. He just needs his mojo back, he looked lost last year, even in the G league.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 15:14:03 GMT -5
Read something today that they put Walker on a program to be ready for the start of the year when they expected that to be January (i think later January was the original though) so if that’s true, I wouldn’t expect to see much of Kemba the first month and honestly it’s probably the smart play.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2020 15:29:57 GMT -5
 Let’s see.. would be nice - you’d think it has to be soon bc camp starts in 3 days |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Nov 28, 2020 15:50:32 GMT -5
The Cavs had a D-rating of 120 with him off the court, he knows how to play defense. He was the only thing that made them NOT a complete laughing stock on that end of the floor last year. He’s great at switching and doesn’t look like a fish out of water when he’s forced to defend the perimeter. He was a key part of that title team because he could switch on to GS guards without looking like a clown I honestly don’t know where this “Tristan Thompson can’t defend” narrative is coming from. He’s a better defender than TimeLord and people think TimeLord is a defensive specialist ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Kevin Love, Larry Nance, John Henson and Drummond all had better defensive numbers as bigs last year. Drummond's came onto the same team, with the same players and put up a 107 defensive rating in eight games. That championship team rotated starts between TT and TM, TM had better defensive numbers. You are focusing on one part of D and acting like the rest doesn't matter. It's not that TT sucks or is even bad on D. Yet he is limited and isn't close to the monster you make him sound like. Two parts to D, guarding your guy and playing team D. This whole time you've just focused on guarding his player, a centers biggest impact is team D. Theis wasn't a monster on D last year, second in the league not because of his one on one D. It was his team D, him not allowing the four other positions to get easy baskets. The easiest shots in the game. It was the basis of our D last year, take away the easy shots, force them to make harder ones. Kanter wasn't horrible guarding guys like Embiid, his team D was non-existent though. You can hope Stevens can coach up TT and get him to do things he's never done well. We've seen that before more than once. Yet that's what you need, not that TT is a monster on D. For his career so far he's best against low post scorers. He likes to get physical. His impact is much less if a team doesn't have one and there aren't a ton in this league now a days. Also remember Golden State with KD, they took him right out of the game. A big reason being he doesn't have a low post game to punish those smaller guys at the other end and isn't quick enough to guard them. You keep picking on Turner and Robert Williams because you keep focusing on only one part of a centers responsibility on D. Gobert isn't a monster on D year after year because he stops centers from scoring, his biggest impact is stopping the four other positions from scoring in the paint. You either do that by blocking shots like Gobert, Turner, Robert Williams or like Theis literally challenging everything in the paint like your life depends on it. Do me a favor and google “Tristan Thompson defense”, read the miles of content there calling him a good defender, then get back to me. Cavs defense without Drummond- 116 Bad but still better than the defense without Thompson. All the other guys you listed being off the court don’t impact their team defense nearly as much as Thompson. Check the numbers for yourself (it’s like 111 for Love, 116 for Henson, and 114 for Nance). Wanna know why? Because Thompson is a good defender The Cavs suffer more without him on the floor than anybody else and there is a reason why people who cover the team call him their defensive MVP You’re making it sound like I’m calling him an all-nba guy, I’m not. He’s just really good on that end of the floor If time lord was as good of a defender as you think he is because he blocks shots then his minutes would reflect that...they do not. Want to know why? Because he takes himself out of position A LOT. Acting like Kevin love is a better defender than him is brain dead. And I mean that with all due respect Their defense is at its best when Love is off the court Hey I mean the Cavs defense is BY FAR at its worst without Thompson on the floor but yeah he’s the worst defender of their 5 bigs, it’s a great point. His team D is a strength. that’s why the entire team falls apart to an all time bad 120 without him. It CRATERS. Like I said last time we will just have to see how it plays out. If he’s trashy defensively I’ll be the first one here with my hand up. I have a feeling it’s a sight you’re not going to see |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 28, 2020 16:42:57 GMT -5
Kevin Love, Larry Nance, John Henson and Drummond all had better defensive numbers as bigs last year. Drummond's came onto the same team, with the same players and put up a 107 defensive rating in eight games. That championship team rotated starts between TT and TM, TM had better defensive numbers. You are focusing on one part of D and acting like the rest doesn't matter. It's not that TT sucks or is even bad on D. Yet he is limited and isn't close to the monster you make him sound like. Two parts to D, guarding your guy and playing team D. This whole time you've just focused on guarding his player, a centers biggest impact is team D. Theis wasn't a monster on D last year, second in the league not because of his one on one D. It was his team D, him not allowing the four other positions to get easy baskets. The easiest shots in the game. It was the basis of our D last year, take away the easy shots, force them to make harder ones. Kanter wasn't horrible guarding guys like Embiid, his team D was non-existent though. You can hope Stevens can coach up TT and get him to do things he's never done well. We've seen that before more than once. Yet that's what you need, not that TT is a monster on D. For his career so far he's best against low post scorers. He likes to get physical. His impact is much less if a team doesn't have one and there aren't a ton in this league now a days. Also remember Golden State with KD, they took him right out of the game. A big reason being he doesn't have a low post game to punish those smaller guys at the other end and isn't quick enough to guard them. You keep picking on Turner and Robert Williams because you keep focusing on only one part of a centers responsibility on D. Gobert isn't a monster on D year after year because he stops centers from scoring, his biggest impact is stopping the four other positions from scoring in the paint. You either do that by blocking shots like Gobert, Turner, Robert Williams or like Theis literally challenging everything in the paint like your life depends on it. Do me a favor and google “Tristan Thompson defense”, read the miles of content there calling him a good defender, then get back to me. Cavs defense without Drummond- 116 Bad but still better than the defense without Thompson. All the other guys you listed being off the court don’t impact their team defense nearly as much as Thompson. Check the numbers for yourself (it’s like 111 for Love, 116 for Henson, and 114 for Nance). Wanna know why? Because Thompson is a good defender The Cavs suffer more without him on the floor than anybody else and there is a reason why people who cover the team call him their defensive MVP You’re making it sound like I’m calling him an all-nba guy, I’m not. He’s just really good on that end of the floor If time lord was as good of a defender as you think he is because he blocks shots then his minutes would reflect that...they do not. Want to know why? Because he takes himself out of position A LOT. Acting like Kevin love is a better defender than him is brain dead. And I mean that with all due respect Their defense is at its best when Love is off the court Hey I mean the Cavs defense is BY FAR at its worst without Thompson on the floor but yeah he’s the worst defender of their 5 bigs, it’s a great point. His team D is a strength. that’s why the entire team falls apart to an all time bad 120 without him So in your opinion we shouldn't pay attention to defensive ratings? It's the difference in ratings that matter to you? You get Drummond had a much bigger difference right? You get the off court 116 rating with Drummond is because Thompson was on the bench right? Here's why that's crazy, it's not the same people. When your starters go to the bench it's your bench players playing. The majority of teams have that same effect, you know because you start your best players. All your saying with that stat is that Thompson is better than the backups on the Cavs. Well yeah that's a given. The fact is Drummond did a lot better on D than Thompson and I don't think he's some elite guy. Yet he blocks shots, protects the rim in a way Thompson doesn't. Hence why he limits scoring and has a much better defensive rating. You mean like a crazy raw guy that missed half a year earning rotation minutes in the playoffs? Yeah Robert Williams did that and he's just scratching the surface of his ability. Get back at me when Thompson comes close to Robert Williams defensive numbers. Numbers don't lie, they are much better most of the time than watching games where you tend to remember only certain things. Are there articles that use actually stats to make a case he might have seen the best defensive center in the league? I posted one about Turner a page back with actual stats to back up my claims. Points per possession in the post, pick and role, etc. If he's "really good" on that end overall why doesn't the numbers show it? Maybe because he's really good at one thing and not overall? Call it the Avery Bradley situation. He was a monster on ball defender, he also had a bunch of weaknesses. Don't forget we have a bunch of data from him on those good Cavs teams. I'm not just looking at his data on crappy teams We'll find out soon enough. If he's starting playing 25-30 minutes a night or is a match up guy against low post players with Theis starting. My issue was never Thompson isn't good on D. It's using the full mid-level on a big who does best against low post scorers and basically has no offensive game. This isn't 20-30 years ago, there are only a few of those guys. We needed a big that can score and play D, ideally a big that can space the floor. That guy was Turner. A guy like Whiteside took the veteran minimum. He's made an all defensive team and go look at his defensive ratings. |
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