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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 20, 2021 22:49:03 GMT -5
Santana will be activated tomorrow, per Enrique Rojas (ESPN). I'm assuming Brennan or Brice is the countermove. Comes down to whether they're sticking with the 3-man bench. If so, DFA Brennan or Brewer and option Chavis or Cordero. If not, DFA Brice. Brennan has been decent in Worcester. Better than Brewer (although his schedule got messed up when he got called up). I wonder at this point if they'd DFA Brewer first. As for who they'd option, it depends on how they want to use Santana. I could see Cordero going down with Chavis the eventual countermove when Arroyo gets healthy, but they're really not limited in what they do. Cordero has just 2 starts over the last week but they've faced a bunch of LHP, so can't read too much into that. Honestly, if Bazardo weren't hurt, I could've seen them doing a kind of double-switch, DFA'ing Brice and optioning one of the hitters to bring up Bazardo and Santana. Franchy since May 5 has a .366 xwOBA in 33 PA, with a .316 / .358 / .484 expected line. He's had 8 balls in play with an expected BA of > .500 (all .600 or above, in fact), with a minimum / average / max EV of 100.1 / 107.2 / 115.2, so nothing remotely like a cheap hit. But he's 0 / 16 with xBA < .500 (including two more with 100+ EV), when ordinarily that's 3 hits by luck.
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Post by Jimmy on May 20, 2021 23:23:58 GMT -5
Franchy playing well lately looking at expected numbers. Chavis playing well. It’s gotta be Brice DFA. When Arroyo comes back probably Chavis down.
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Post by manfred on May 20, 2021 23:37:53 GMT -5
C’mon. Franchy swings hard, will hit it hard when he touches it. But let’s not kid ourselves: he is a mess. If he is salvageable, what is better, going to Woo and getting real time, or staying here and getting pinch hit for by Arauz?
Chavis certainly deserves to stay ahead of him at this point. Santana should be on his way very soon.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 21, 2021 17:17:57 GMT -5
Brice DFA'ed. Seemed like the logical move.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 21, 2021 23:58:23 GMT -5
C’mon. Franchy swings hard, will hit it hard when he touches it. But let’s not kid ourselves: he is a mess. If he is salvageable, what is better, going to Woo and getting real time, or staying here and getting pinch hit for by Arauz? Chavis certainly deserves to stay ahead of him at this point. Santana should be on his way very soon. Agreed, Chavis deserves to stay in Boston, and Cordero has played himself to Worcester. I guess Cora & Co. have been waiting for Santana as he switch hits (for that LH batter) to farm out Cordero.....hopefully.
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Post by ramireja on May 25, 2021 13:43:02 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 3, 2021 12:11:30 GMT -5
Brewer DFA'ed to make room for Workman.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 6, 2021 17:54:52 GMT -5
Short version: watch Workman over the next 11 games, and Santana, Gonzalez, and Arroyo over the next three weeks. 40-man decisions will likely be made based on how they do.
Some upcoming likely 26-man moves, and their potential impact on the 40.
This stretch of playing every day ends after 11 more games / days. We then have a Thursday off and the following Monday.
This is the obvious time to go back to 13 pitchers for a while and recall Franchy. Ideally, Workman is good enough to keep, in which case they would probably option Valdez, as solid as he's been. But there's a good chance they DFA Workman (can they fix him in 11 days, pitching only garbage time?); ideally in this less good scenario, he's good enough to trade for a lottery ticket, but that's likely a very narrow window.
After those 2 off days, they play 16 straight days again. I think they'd want to go back to 14 pitchers at some point, but that means cutting a position player, and we fervently hope that Franchy has been too good to be sent down again. The first 6 games of the 16 are three in Tampa and 3 hosting the Yankees, and I would think that they go back to 14 after that.
This gives them as little as three weeks to decide whether they trim Gonzalez, Santana, or Arroyo, if every position player on the roster stays healthy. They really don't need all of them, plus Kiké, especially with Chavis and Arauz on option. There's a good chance they'll get creative with IL stints for minor injuries for them or Kiké, and stretch out the decision. But at some point you've got to trade one of the three.
If they did trade Workman, the 14th pitcher would ideally be Brasier, but is he going to be ready in 3 weeks? That's something to track. If he's still out, there seems to be a pretty good chance that Houck would be ready by then. If not, Brennan might fill in until Brasier is ready. Bazardo might be available after about another week, as well.
Note that all of the DFA-Workman scenarios free up a 40-man spot for Sale or Duran.
If they've optioned Valdez to keep Workman, he wouldn't be eligible to be recalled for another 5 days, so we go back to the Brasier and others option for the 14th pitcher.
Looking ahead to the point in the season where Duran joins the big club, and they simply have to go back to 13 pitchers, one of them Sale ....
The first 12 of the pitchers they stick with, if all are healthy, are pretty clear (assuming Andriese's awful May was a fluke). The 13th guy could be a revived Workman, but more likely would be a choice between Brasier or Taylor, the loser joining Valdez in Wooland. Counting Houck and Valdez, that's 16 or 17 (if Workman) guys who deserve to be in MLB, which is more than enough depth to withstand injuries and inexplicable collapses. And this is not considering Ort, who probably needs a 60-day IL stint by someone to get a chance.
Let's look at the 40-man:
+ Brasier
+ Sale + Duran - Santana, Gonzalez, or Arroyo
- Workman (probably)
So, in terms of 40-man, keeping Workman makes it tougher, which is why he needs to somewhat resemble the 2019 guy to be kept. Without him, they can just DFA Brennan. With him, then you're talking about dealing Wilson, or a pitcher on the MLB roster to make room for Houck, or recalling Mata and putting him on the 60day IL.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 7, 2021 5:23:48 GMT -5
I mean they’ll probably AT LEAST give him 30 AB’s...... Lol maybe a little patience If not Wong then who is the next DFA when the Red Sox need a roster spot....Brennen, Arauz, Chavis?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2021 7:47:08 GMT -5
I mean they’ll probably AT LEAST give him 30 AB’s...... Lol maybe a little patience If not Wong then who is the next DFA when the Red Sox need a roster spot....Brennen, Arauz, Chavis? Why would you DFA Arauz?* Probably Workman tbh. You don’t lose a prospect to keep the last man in the pen sitting 90 with no control You definitely don’t cut bait on a prospect coming back from injury after 28 AB’s though, that’s just silly. You’d sooner see them trade from their depth (Wilson, Rosario, Potts, etc) imo *just saw his numbers and they are yucky, but still I don’t see them cutting bait on a 22 year old they stashed on the main roster for a full season after ~70 AAA AB’s
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 7, 2021 8:05:14 GMT -5
If not Wong then who is the next DFA when the Red Sox need a roster spot....Brennen, Arauz, Chavis? Why would you DFA Arauz?* Probably Workman tbh. You don’t lose a prospect to keep the last man in the pen sitting 90 with no control You definitely don’t cut bait on a prospect coming back from injury after 28 AB’s though, that’s just silly. You’d sooner see them trade from their depth (Wilson, Rosario, Potts, etc) imo *just saw his numbers and they are yucky, but still I don’t see them cutting bait on a 22 year old they stashed on the main roster for a full season after ~70 AAA AB’s Ok, Brasier comes back in a few weeks and you dump Workman (or Walkman) if you prefer one of his more common outcomes (laughing at my own joke).... I would love to see them trade Chavis, but I do not think they get much back for him....and I do not see a place for him on the mlb roster. He does not play good enough defense at any position other than first.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 8:17:47 GMT -5
There are several players I'd move on from before Arauz. He's already an MLB-quality backup infielder, he's 22, and he's on his first option year.
Chavis still may have some trade value (I think?) but he's starting to strike me as a change-of-scene possibility. As a flawed right-handed hitting first baseman who has pop but swings and misses too much, he's kind of redundant with Dalbec. Like, even if Dalbec settles in as a platoon/defensive replacement type, where does that leave Chavis? I just don't see how he complements the current roster. and I don't see how he's improving. I still think his best path is to get passable playing second base, but you're not going to play him ahead of Downs at Worcester.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2021 10:11:29 GMT -5
Lol. Wong has played in EIGHT games.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 7, 2021 12:02:51 GMT -5
Lol. Wong has played in EIGHT games. ...so after Workman is dumped when Brasier comes.....then let’s say Bloom trades for someone who needs to be added to the 40-man roster....who do you part with, 60-day DL,...Brennan, Rosario, Potts? (I would love to keep 60 players on the 40-man roster, but that obviously is not allowed, and when November comes and all the Rule 5 players need to be added, some current 40-man prospects will be culled from the herd).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2021 12:10:24 GMT -5
Lol. Wong has played in EIGHT games. ...so after Workman is dumped when Brasier comes.....then let’s say Bloom trades for someone who needs to be added to the 40-man roster....who do you part with, 60-day DL,...Brennan, Rosario, Potts? I certainly wouldn't DFA the 17th-ranked prospect in the system! Possible options if they need a 40-man spot, in a rough but not necessarily strictly particular order (and to be clear, it might be a while before Brasier comes back now after the line drive he took): DFA Brandon Brennan DFA Brandon Workman DFA Danny Santana (if he doesn't get it together at the plate) Trade Marcus Wilson Trade Michael Chavis 60-day Hudson Potts 60-day Connor Seabold Then a big space before any other options. I thought about including Gonzalez but he's contributing positively on defense and is fine in his bench utility guy role, even if he's not really hitting. Considering that he's also hitting better than Santana his job is safe for now. But again, this is all theoretical and it might be at least a month before they need a roster spot. EDIT: Moved this from the gameday thread.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 7, 2021 21:01:16 GMT -5
Option Dalbec if Sox are facing a squeeze Option Valdez ... same.
Keep the prospects, trade a veteran
Brasier: concussions are serious Mata: not going on the 60-day MLB IL. His service time is too valuable
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 14, 2021 14:58:41 GMT -5
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Post by jkfer98 on Jun 14, 2021 15:19:14 GMT -5
Yacksel Rios acquired
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Post by juanpena on Jun 14, 2021 15:30:58 GMT -5
If I'm Kaleb Ort and I see the Sox acquire Rios and add him to the 40, I've got to figure I'm never getting a shot in Boston.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 14, 2021 15:33:10 GMT -5
I wouldn’t go that far, I bet we still see Ort this year
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2021 15:49:49 GMT -5
I wouldn't either. Rios has shoved in AAA this year and has an option, and they got him for cash.
As I've said, waiting to add him until they have a more secure spot on the 40-man for him is better for him, not worse.
That said, could see it being annoying for a guy knocking on the door.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 14, 2021 16:51:13 GMT -5
Kind of interesting to see Bloom hoard his pitching depth for so much of the year and then basically treat Weber and Brennan as disposable over one rough weekend.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 14, 2021 17:00:31 GMT -5
Kind of interesting to see Bloom hoard his pitching depth for so much of the year and then basically treat Weber and Brennan as disposable over one rough weekend. I think he views bottom of the 40 man arms as interchangeable. Sometimes you can get them through waivers and maintain them as depth, sometimes they’ll pop and actually provide something. I mean he just picked up an arm today too I also don’t anticipate that teams are chomping at the bit to claim Weber either. Maybe Brennan gets claimed and that would mildly stink but at the end of the day it’s a depth arm that will probably be replaced sooner rather than later seeing how Bloom churns through the bottom of the 40 man
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 14, 2021 17:07:06 GMT -5
Kind of interesting to see Bloom hoard his pitching depth for so much of the year and then basically treat Weber and Brennan as disposable over one rough weekend. I think they’ll be able to keep Weber. As for Brennan, two possibilities (obviously): He goes unclaimed, Sox keep Brennan AND pick up Rios; +1 depth arm Brennan gets claimed, Sox get Rios; +/- 0 depth arms So is the difference between Brennan and Rios negligible enough to risk losing Brennan, with the upside being that you could potentially keep both? Probably. Also have to factor in these moves are keeping the MLB pen fresh(er) during a 17 game stretch.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 14, 2021 19:37:14 GMT -5
Kind of interesting to see Bloom hoard his pitching depth for so much of the year and then basically treat Weber and Brennan as disposable over one rough weekend. I think they’ll be able to keep Weber. As for Brennan, two possibilities (obviously): He goes unclaimed, Sox keep Brennan AND pick up Rios; +1 depth arm Brennan gets claimed, Sox get Rios; +/- 0 depth arms So is the difference between Brennan and Rios negligible enough to risk losing Brennan, with the upside being that you could potentially keep both? Probably. Also have to factor in these moves are keeping the MLB pen fresh(er) during a 17 game stretch. This is really well thought-through. The key seems to be that the team at all times has a list of guys like Brennan they think they can acquire, up-and-down guys with at least a little upside. So when you DFA one, maybe more often than not you're simply replacing him with someone of equal value. But at times you're adding another player of equal value. It's a clear win if the pitchers involved are indeed roughly comparable.
Per Ian's tweet, it looks like Rios is more interesting than Brennan.
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