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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 14, 2021 20:28:13 GMT -5
Has there been any update on Hernandez? His injury was referred to as "minor" yet there hasn't been a peep about him. I guess if his recovery is dragging moving him to the 60-day is an option as well. Cora talked bout Darwinzon on the pregame show. Radio He's working out. Not throwing yet.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 21:28:51 GMT -5
I honestly think they DFA Rosario and maybe even Potts before putting Mata on the 60 day It's only a few weeks of service time for Mata at this point. Your odds of losing Rosario and Potts after a DFA go way down in the offseason after everybody's 40 mans get more crowded. I'd rather keep Rosario than Potts. Rosario can at least be a 5th outfielder next year. I don't see where Potts fits, even as a depth option
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2021 22:02:00 GMT -5
Brasier will be back soon. What to do with Bazardo - he is rehabbing too - does he need to return to the 40 man?
Roster bubble players in my view - Valdez, Potts, Andriese, Cordero, Santana, Rios, Robles, Davis.
Injured - Mata
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2021 22:48:32 GMT -5
It's only a few weeks of service time for Mata at this point. Your odds of losing Rosario and Potts after a DFA go way down in the offseason after everybody's 40 mans get more crowded. I'd rather keep Rosario than Potts. Rosario can at least be a 5th outfielder next year. I don't see where Potts fits, even as a depth option I’d want a MUCH better 5th OF I’d honestly probably get both of them off the 40 man in the off-season, but if I had to keep 1 I’d probably go with Potts because he has 1 good tool
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 23:28:09 GMT -5
I'd rather keep Rosario than Potts. Rosario can at least be a 5th outfielder next year. I don't see where Potts fits, even as a depth option I’d want a MUCH better 5th OF I’d honestly probably get both of them off the 40 man in the off-season, but if I had to keep 1 I’d probably go with Potts because he has 1 good tool Assuming Renfroe, Duran and Verdugo are the three main guys, Hernandez and Cordero would definitely be ahead of him on the depth chart, but after that? Maybe he's sixth. I'd prefer that to Potts who can only play third and would be behind Devers, Dalbec, Fitzgerald, Arauz and maybe Downs? Of course hopefully both aren't on the 40 but given the either/or situation I'd rather have the guy who I'm more likely to need
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2021 23:35:35 GMT -5
I’d want a MUCH better 5th OF I’d honestly probably get both of them off the 40 man in the off-season, but if I had to keep 1 I’d probably go with Potts because he has 1 good tool Assuming Renfroe, Duran and Verdugo are the three main guys, Hernandez and Cordero would definitely be ahead of him on the depth chart, but after that? Maybe he's sixth. I'd prefer that to Potts who can only play third and would be behind Devers, Dalbec, Fitzgerald, Arauz and maybe Downs? Of course hopefully both aren't on the 40 but given the either/or situation I'd rather have the guy who I'm more likely to need I just think there’s never going to be a need for him, I think they’d sooner turn to a Ryan Lamarre type who is off the 40 man
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2021 0:10:44 GMT -5
Right now the 14 pitchers for September 1 seem clear, if you count on Darwinzon (replacing Davis) but neither Brasier nor Andriese. (It's the current roster with the lefty swap, plus Houck.) To get either of those guys on the MLB roster if everyone is healthy, you'd likely either give Robles a phantom IL stint or DFA him. So that's another possible roster opening.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 15, 2021 0:18:01 GMT -5
Right now the 14 pitchers for September 1 seem clear, if you count on Darwinzon (replacing Davis) but neither Brasier nor Andriese. (It's the current roster with the lefty swap, plus Houck.) To get either of those guys on the MLB roster if everyone is healthy, you'd likely either give Robles a phantom IL stint or DFA him. So that's another possible roster opening. And what happens if Brasier is ready to pitch? Rios?
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2021 0:28:09 GMT -5
I don't see how putting Mata on the 60-day affects next year, 2022. He comes off 60-day in October. Gets optioned in spring. Back on Milb IL. I would be extremely surprised if they could do that. If he was on the MLB IL, I'd presume he can't be optioned later and put on the minor league IL because of the same injury. Remember, the only reason they were able to option him is because he got injured early enough in MLB camp. If a guy gets hurt in the majors, you can't option him and put him on the minor league IL. I believe something happened with Workman back in the day where it was determined he got hurt in MLB camp before being optioned so they had to retroactively rescind his option and put him on the MLB IL. This is very fuzzy to me. There is no IL in the off-season. Those statuses are re-set.
It's really easy to construct a scenario where a player with options left finishes a season on the MLB 60-day IL but (because of off-season roster moves) projects to be minor league depth the next year once he recovers. Is there really a rule that forces him to be on the MLB IL for half of the next year (acquiring service time and collecting an MLB salary), then sent down to rehab, and optioned as he deserves only after all that? Why would owners want that rule?
Putting a minor league player on the MLB 60-day IL has downsides for the team. It starts his arbitration clock, and you have to pay him an MLB salary which counts against the tax limit. It's not at all a cheap way to create an extra roster space.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2021 0:32:55 GMT -5
Right now the 14 pitchers for September 1 seem clear, if you count on Darwinzon (replacing Davis) but neither Brasier nor Andriese. (It's the current roster with the lefty swap, plus Houck.) To get either of those guys on the MLB roster if everyone is healthy, you'd likely either give Robles a phantom IL stint or DFA him. So that's another possible roster opening. And what happens if Brasier is ready to pitch? Rios? Rios just got optioned (I didn't think he had any left). So the answer to your question is what I just said. More accurately, you would either put your least valuable pitcher on the (phantom) IL, or DFA your least vauable pitcher who will be a free agent. Robles seems likely to be either of those guys.
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Post by carl4sox on Aug 15, 2021 6:51:36 GMT -5
I'd like to see Munoz added back to the 40-man and called up. DFA whomever you want.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 15, 2021 7:03:42 GMT -5
I think Munoz could be a good addition... he's hit in MLB at a level which would be fine for a utility player, and certainly swinging the bat well now.
Looking at the excellent SP 40 man roster page, it's striking how good a job Bloom has done building this team. Theres plenty of depth to replace ERod, and the rest of the staff with plenty of team control. Team options instead of player options, and some trade candidates. All that said, there are frankly too many players with control for the spots they have, a nice problem to have. Im sure the market just wasn't there, but they actually may lose some guys who are potential MLBers.
The nice thing is that AAA could feature legit MLB depth in the form of prospects (Wong, Downs, Casas, Duran) and maybe don't need the older AAAA types as much.
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Post by unitspin on Aug 15, 2021 8:03:06 GMT -5
If franchy is still on the roster next yr the red sox are not trying to win a WS. The kid in August is 3/20 with 9ks and 0bb. Hes just plain awful, not a mlb tier player even as a utility player he doesn't help a team at all. 0
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2021 23:56:11 GMT -5
Right now the 14 pitchers for September 1 seem clear, if you count on Darwinzon (replacing Davis) but neither Brasier nor Andriese. (It's the current roster with the lefty swap, plus Houck.) To get either of those guys on the MLB roster if everyone is healthy, you'd likely either give Robles a phantom IL stint or DFA him. So that's another possible roster opening. And what happens if Brasier is ready to pitch? Rios? I get that you can't scout the stat line in a rehab assignment, but unless Brasier is working with the coaches on how to throw meatballs to opposing hitters, his stats don't suggest he's ready to come back any time soon.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 1:03:56 GMT -5
It's only a few weeks of service time for Mata at this point. Your odds of losing Rosario and Potts after a DFA go way down in the offseason after everybody's 40 mans get more crowded. I'd rather keep Rosario than Potts. Rosario can at least be a 5th outfielder next year. I don't see where Potts fits, even as a depth option I really don't get why you keep either Rosario or Potts on the 40-man if push comes to shove. Is it because they came over from the vaunted SD system (in exchange for 2 months of Mitch Moreland)? Sure, they're young for AA, so their .600-ish OPSes in 200-300 PAs can be excused, but are they really so valuable that teams are going to be eager to add them to their own 40-man rosters just to have them re-play AA next season? That makes more sense for a rebuilding team's 40-man than a contending team's. Frankly, I'd rather see guys who are mashing at premium positions and climbing the ladder, like Kole Cottam or Ryan Fitzgerald, on the 40-man than guys like Potts and Rosario who we're still waiting on to see if they'll pleasantly surprise us. [N.B. I know there's a difference between Rule 5 (Cottam, Fitzgerald) and waivers (Potts & Rosario) but I'd rather risk losing Potts or Rosario than Cottam or Fitzgerald.]
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 16, 2021 2:56:36 GMT -5
Agreed on Potts, his 3B/utility profile puts pressure on his bat...combine that with his 37%K rate and he will probably won't be claimed.
Rosario on the other hand is three years younger than AA NE average (21 to 24) and a CF with potential for plus defense, who has a very good feel for the zone (12%BB rate this year, lowest in his career!). Granted he has NO power atm, but i can see him get claimed.
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Post by unitspin on Aug 16, 2021 6:30:46 GMT -5
And what happens if Brasier is ready to pitch? Rios? I get that you can't scout the stat line in a rehab assignment, but unless Brasier is working with the coaches on how to throw meatballs to opposing hitters, his stats don't suggest he's ready to come back any time soon. Ya he deff isn't ready yet. But I wouldnt judge him on 2.2ip of a rehab assignment.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 9:55:02 GMT -5
Agreed on Potts, his 3B/utility profile puts pressure on his bat...combine that with his 37%K rate and he will probably won't be claimed. Rosario on the other hand is three years younger than AA NE average (21 to 24) and a CF with potential for plus defense, who has a very good feel for the zone (12%BB rate this year, lowest in his career!). Granted he has NO power atm, but i can see him get claimed. Rosario isn't a bad prospect but he's already burning his first option (as is Potts), so you have to start doing the math on whether he'll make the big league roster or not by April 2024. Do you tie up a 40-man spot for that long for a 4th OF type?
It's similar to an earlier discussion on Groome. He's also burning his first option this year and needs to be on the big league roster by the same time and would be Rosario's teammate in Portland next year, burning their second options together. But Groome's upside is much higher than Rosario's, so I'm more willing to keep waiting on him... although I wouldn't be upset if he figures into a trade for a star.
Rosario's not getting traded for a star. He was only worth 1-month of Mitch Moreland last year (maybe slightly more given SD's 40-man crunch at the time) and hasn't really done anything since to boost that value. You can't keep every prospect.
Looping back to Cottam and Fitzgerald, putting them on the 40-man now means they need to show big league promise by April 2025. I can see that with both of them. Heck, I wouldn't mind seeing Fitzgerald replace Arauz tomorrow (more realistically, this winter).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2021 13:02:16 GMT -5
I'd rather keep Rosario than Potts. Rosario can at least be a 5th outfielder next year. I don't see where Potts fits, even as a depth option I’d want a MUCH better 5th OF I’d honestly probably get both of them off the 40 man in the off-season, but if I had to keep 1 I’d probably go with Potts because he has 1 good tool If I'm picking the one good tool between the two of them it's probably Rosario's defense, which doesn't require he hit the ball for it to matter, unlike Potts' power.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2021 2:12:37 GMT -5
This projection prove to be insanely complicated! I think this is correct ...
I just realized that Bazardo is never coming off the 60-day IL, and he can be replaced on the Postseason Eligibility List by DeShields. (Yes, position doesn't matter.)
They need to clear a roster spot when Taylor comes off of the COVID list, which is hopefully tomorrow (still no word on his test results, but they already cleared the 26-man spot).
They likely need to add Brasier at some point, and they almost certainly plan to add DeShields near or at season's end.
By the 24th, if everyone is healthy, they have to DFA Shaw in order to clear room on the 26 for Arroyo. So that factors into the math; they'll have 39 and an open spot for at least a stretch.
I think they're very likely to select and option Munoz on the 31st to make him post-season eligible. That's consistent with their emphasis on depth and flexibility. If Brasier hasn't returned yet, that puts them at 40. If he has, they'll have to make a second move. DeShields is the 3rd.
So what are the three moves (assuming Brasier comes back at some point)?
Danny Santana is about to start a rehab. It turns out that they can keep him on the roster until the end of the year, where his DFA would open up the spot for DeShields. That would be a smart thing to do, since they value depth, and if he looks good in rehab it's easy to see injury scenarios where he'd useful. Might there be a point before season's end where a DFA make sense? Possibly, and if it did make sense they obviously won't hesitate. (I am not, however, going to try to construct that scenario!) In any case, letting him rehab and essentially audition for another job (here or elsewhere) is the right thing to do, and they'll do it.
Moving Mata to the 60-day IL retroactively has a huge added bonus: he can be replaced on the Postseason Eligibility List with Shaw, or anyone currently in the org. That's a powerful defense against a rash of injuries (and there's a scenario where both Munoz and Shaw are on your best post-season roster). However, I don't think it will be kosher to do that after the minor league season is over, let alone at the very end of the MLB season. So I think it's either tomorrow's move or one on 8/31.
And a final move, if they need it, would have to be Potts or Rosario. But you might hold off on that right now, because, there's no guarantee that you need to clear all 3 spots. There's no obvious room for Brasier in the pen if Andriese is reinstated first (with Davis being sent down), as seems very likely. So he will likely continue to rehab until it's clear that he represents an upgrade to what they've got. Obviously an injury would open up a spot.
So the Taylor move (which is really the Shaw move) may well be Mata to the 60-day IL. If it's either Potts or Rosario, it likely means they don't want to start Mata's MLB salary now, for CBT reasons, and/or are fairly certain that Brasier will be in MLB before the end of the season. But it seems likely that both Potts and Rosario have some minimal post-season trade value (e.g., for an equally marginal prospect, pre-40-eligible, that we like better), so keeping them around would be preferable.
They could in theory get to the end of the year with 40 on the roster. But as noted, Brasier is a likely addition along the way, and DeShields will be added just before the season's end or after it. So that's 42, and the two offsetting moves would be whatever they don't do tomorrow, and ... believe it or not, maybe not Santana's DFA. If Robles is sufficiently down the depth chart at the end of the year, he could go instead. And if Santana actually plays his way onto the post-season roster by destroying AAA and/or doing well in MLB after some injuries (stranger things have happened), that's how you make room.
One wild card here is an early DFA for Robles if it becomes clear that they have 14 better pitchers, which seems not unlikely. But they'd much more likely find a phantom IL excuse for him.
Is there a scenario where Potts and Rosario survive? Yes. Mata to the 60-day tomorrow, Shaw replaced by Munoz, Brasier never returns, Santana or Robles replaced by DeShields (and possibly the other replaced by Shaw). So it's Brasier who's the key for that, confirming my line of thought above. If they like the way he's throwing now (and Cora said as much), they could bite the bullet and DFA Potts or Rosario now ... I'd call that the 60 / 40 favorite.
Note that all of these scenarios work with either a 5-man bench and 8-man pen, or 6-man bench and 7-man pen. Since one bench guy is a pinch-runner, you might want the latter, especially in the WS.
(I have to admit that the idea of Santana not only making the post-season roster but having at least one memorable, valuable moment is hard to resist. Is that any less likely than Whitlock's season?)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 17, 2021 2:58:28 GMT -5
A statement that would have been insane a few months ago.
If Downs continues the slide he won't need to be protected this winter because there's pretty much no way he's taking up a 26 man slot for an entire year. If a team did that, his career would pretty much be over if it isn't over already.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 17, 2021 5:52:50 GMT -5
I think Downs would immediately be plucked in the Rule 5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2021 8:14:57 GMT -5
I think Downs would immediately be plucked in the Rule 5 No question. Jonathan freaking Araúz got picked. I love ya, Ray, but you're a little out there on the Downs stuff, I think.
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Post by jmei on Aug 17, 2021 8:20:50 GMT -5
Consensus top 100 prospect as recently as midseason (and may still sneak into the back of some top 100 lists this offseason) + can credibly play SS and 2B + still just 23 years old = lock to be taken as the first pick in the Rule 5 draft if left unprotected. Just about every team in baseball could stick him on their roster as a backup infielder and keep him there all year, even if he doesn't hit.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 17, 2021 8:45:40 GMT -5
Fun fact: Jarren Duran's AAA contact rate: 67.9% Jeter Downs' AAA contact rate: 67.3% Downs was up to 75% at some point while Duran was constantly between 64-69%.
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