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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 28, 2021 9:56:06 GMT -5
If you don’t protect Winckowski or Downs I bet they’re both immediately selected and successfully stashed. A team will easily be able to keep Winckowski in the front of a bullpen for a year and there is a chance he would be an effective reliever immediately with a mid to upper 90’s FB, good slider, and good control. Downs is a non-starter to leave off the 40 man, he is top 10 in the system and gets plucked immediately + spends the year on somebody’s bench as a backup IF with a glove for multiple spots. Something I believe I remember our poster Phils talking about last year was how Downs was better with the glove than the stick at the ATS. It’s played out that way in Worcester too- the bat hasn’t lived up to expectations this season but the defense has more than done that from what I’ve seen. Seems like he can stick at SS. That’s a very easy guy to stick at the end of a roster, especially since doing so wouldn’t totally stunt his growth as the selecting team could start him in AAA as a 24 YO the following season if they need to One of Chaim's few missteps thus far was pushing Downs to AAA that fast. He's clearly not ready, which is perfectly understandable at his age. It also depresses his immediate trade value, so it makes it hard to get appropriate value for him if you try to trade him rather than protect him. But he still has to be protected because a second-division team would definitely pick him and you lose him for nothing.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2021 9:57:31 GMT -5
If you don’t protect Winckowski or Downs I bet they’re both immediately selected and successfully stashed. A team will easily be able to keep Winckowski in the front of a bullpen for a year and there is a chance he would be an effective reliever immediately with a mid to upper 90’s FB, good slider, and good control. Man I honestly don't get your fascination for Winckowski 😅 Don't get me wrong, I love guys who don't walk people but that's just the only quality he has: He pounds the zone with his mediocre stuff. Yes his stuff is really, really mediocre. Just for reference: In Portland's pitching stuff only Matt Kent (82.1%) allows more contact than he does (77.4%). What's the risk here? Some team picks him and Stach him in their bullpen? Let them have him. There's plenty of minor leaguers with his skill set. His two former teams deemed him tradable for a reason. Think about it: The Phillies gave the Red Sox Victor Santos for CJ Chatham meaning they really don't value Santos at all and as you can see in the table below, they're pretty similar pitchers with Santos being maybe a tad better.
| Contact% | BB/9 | K/9 | FIP | Winckowski | 77.4 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 4.19 | Santos | 76.3 | 1.2 | 9.0 | 3.57 |
There's no way Winckowski gets protected next off-season imo I think he’s got a better fastball than Santos and his slider is good. That will play in the pen no matter what, and could even play in late innings, I wouldn’t say it’s a “fascination” with him as much as I think it’s stupid asset management to give up a backend starter who is a bonafide top 20 guy in the system according to pretty much every outlet for absolutely nothing. But that’s just me. We shall see I guess. He’s had a couple rough starts lately but before that he was good. I’m not too worried about him. You need to keep him for at least upper level starter depth. And if you don’t protect him you have to package him in a deal. You absolutely can’t let him go for nothing. Because I guarantee you he gets picked and is probably gone for good.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2021 10:12:33 GMT -5
If you don’t protect Winckowski or Downs I bet they’re both immediately selected and successfully stashed. A team will easily be able to keep Winckowski in the front of a bullpen for a year and there is a chance he would be an effective reliever immediately with a mid to upper 90’s FB, good slider, and good control. Downs is a non-starter to leave off the 40 man, he is top 10 in the system and gets plucked immediately + spends the year on somebody’s bench as a backup IF with a glove for multiple spots. Something I believe I remember our poster Phils talking about last year was how Downs was better with the glove than the stick at the ATS. It’s played out that way in Worcester too- the bat hasn’t lived up to expectations this season but the defense has more than done that from what I’ve seen. Seems like he can stick at SS. That’s a very easy guy to stick at the end of a roster, especially since doing so wouldn’t totally stunt his growth as the selecting team could start him in AAA as a 24 YO the following season if they need to One of Chaim's few missteps thus far was pushing Downs to AAA that fast. He's clearly not ready, which is perfectly understandable at his age. It also depresses his immediate trade value, so it makes it hard to get appropriate value for him if you try to trade him rather than protect him. But he still has to be protected because a second-division team would definitely pick him and you lose him for nothing. Or one of his missteps could be *getting* Downs. Only time will tell, but if he can’t hit it’ll be a huge letdown. But it is really for that reason that it is crazy not to protect him. He’s a guy you have to give as many chances as you can muster to. And if he can field up the middle, he can be a shuttle glove for a few years while you hope he gets hitting.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 28, 2021 10:14:51 GMT -5
Man I honestly don't get your fascination for Winckowski 😅 Don't get me wrong, I love guys who don't walk people but that's just the only quality he has: He pounds the zone with his mediocre stuff. Yes his stuff is really, really mediocre. Just for reference: In Portland's pitching stuff only Matt Kent (82.1%) allows more contact than he does (77.4%). What's the risk here? Some team picks him and Stach him in their bullpen? Let them have him. There's plenty of minor leaguers with his skill set. His two former teams deemed him tradable for a reason. Think about it: The Phillies gave the Red Sox Victor Santos for CJ Chatham meaning they really don't value Santos at all and as you can see in the table below, they're pretty similar pitchers with Santos being maybe a tad better.
| Contact% | BB/9 | K/9 | FIP | Winckowski | 77.4 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 4.19 | Santos | 76.3 | 1.2 | 9.0 | 3.57 |
There's no way Winckowski gets protected next off-season imo I think he’s got a better fastball than Santos and his slider is good. That will play in the pen no matter what, and could even play in late innings, I wouldn’t say it’s a “fascination” with him as much as I think it’s stupid asset management to give up a backend starter who is a bonafide top 20 guy in the system according to pretty much every outlet for absolutely nothing. But that’s just me. We shall see I guess. He’s had a couple rough starts lately but before that he was good. I’m not too worried about him. You need to keep him for at least upper level starter depth. And if you don’t protect him you have to package him in a deal. You absolutely can’t let him go for nothing. Because I guarantee you he gets picked and is probably gone for good. Minute 56:50 Ian Cundal: "I think for me it's a tier below Blaze Jordan though...We discussed this...from Winckowski down honestly till the 30s and the 40s I genuinely think you could make the case for any order...."
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2021 10:52:55 GMT -5
I think he’s got a better fastball than Santos and his slider is good. That will play in the pen no matter what, and could even play in late innings, I wouldn’t say it’s a “fascination” with him as much as I think it’s stupid asset management to give up a backend starter who is a bonafide top 20 guy in the system according to pretty much every outlet for absolutely nothing. But that’s just me. We shall see I guess. He’s had a couple rough starts lately but before that he was good. I’m not too worried about him. You need to keep him for at least upper level starter depth. And if you don’t protect him you have to package him in a deal. You absolutely can’t let him go for nothing. Because I guarantee you he gets picked and is probably gone for good. Minute 56:50 Ian Cundal: "I think for me it's a tier below Blaze Jordan though...We discussed this...from Winckowski down honestly till the 30s and the 40s I genuinely think you could make the case for any order...." Ok so the site has him just a tier below Blaze Jordan, who is a pretty exciting prospect. What did they have to say about Winckowski in their evaluation- like the actual report on him? They decided that collectively they have him 14. Every other outlet has him top 20 too. If you’re ok with giving up upper minors starters in the rule 5 who are top 20 guys in the system (which is now ranked pretty highly) then by all means, I personally think that’s terrible asset management
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 28, 2021 13:58:12 GMT -5
Random old news line:
If you think someone would pick Winckowski then go for it. If he was a future starter though and any good, maybe you give up him instead of Aldo for Schwarber. Im not convinced he'd be more than a mid reliever, and if he's lost for nothing, I'll live.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 28, 2021 14:56:41 GMT -5
I'm not super high on Winckowski, but I think it'd be crazy to not add him to the 40. He just needs to be better than the other guys competing for the last 40 man spot. Leaving him off is the equivalent to trading him for Yacksel Rios or whoever.
If they gave up on him as a starter tomorrow, he'd have a pretty good shot at making next year's major league bullpen out of spring training.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 28, 2021 15:06:53 GMT -5
Hopefully we can pull off some creative 40-man trades to clear the logjam, ie the Rays trade last year, instead of losing people for nothing.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 28, 2021 16:14:04 GMT -5
Was the depth of our team hurt by having guys on the 40 man roster that are absolutely too low in the system to help the major league club?
I understand we don’t want to lose guys like groome and potts, but there was no way to call up guys from triple a when injuries hit that could have helped last month because they were not on the 40 man roster! (Munoz, ort, espinal)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 28, 2021 16:36:53 GMT -5
Winckowski will be protected. Mark it down. He's a Bloom acquisition.
Of course, so were Potts and Rosario and they will be going, going, gone.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2021 17:23:13 GMT -5
Was the depth of our team hurt by having guys on the 40 man roster that are absolutely too low in the system to help the major league club? I understand we don’t want to lose guys like groome and potts, but there was no way to call up guys from triple a when injuries hit that could have helped last month because they were not on the 40 man roster! (Munoz, ort, espinal) They’ve had some pretty easy 40 man roster decisions to add the guys they’ve needed to call up so I don’t think it’s impacted them too much. I don’t see Potts or Rosario on the 40 man next year though
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2021 17:34:38 GMT -5
Quick mid season Sox prospects rankings check for Winckowski:
Soxprospects: 14 BA: 16 Prospects1500: 19 MLB: 19
you get the drift. Pretty much a consensus top 20 guy. He’s not old for his level. He’s performed well outside of his last two outings. He’s getting kept (or traded). And it’s not some sort of “strange fascination” I have with him. It’s because giving up potential starting pitchers for absolutely nothing is stupid and I think Bloom probably recognizes that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2021 18:08:47 GMT -5
If you don’t protect Winckowski or Downs I bet they’re both immediately selected and successfully stashed. A team will easily be able to keep Winckowski in the front of a bullpen for a year and there is a chance he would be an effective reliever immediately with a mid to upper 90’s FB, good slider, and good control. Man I honestly don't get your fascination for Winckowski 😅 Don't get me wrong, I love guys who don't walk people but that's just the only quality he has: He pounds the zone with his mediocre stuff. Yes his stuff is really, really mediocre. Just for reference: In Portland's pitching stuff only Matt Kent (82.1%) allows more contact than he does (77.4%). What's the risk here? Some team picks him and Stach him in their bullpen? Let them have him. There's plenty of minor leaguers with his skill set. His two former teams deemed him tradable for a reason. Think about it: The Phillies gave the Red Sox Victor Santos for CJ Chatham meaning they really don't value Santos at all and as you can see in the table below, they're pretty similar pitchers with Santos being maybe a tad better.
| Contact% | BB/9 | K/9 | FIP | Winckowski | 77.4 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 4.19 | Santos | 76.3 | 1.2 | 9.0 | 3.57 |
There's no way Winckowski gets protected next off-season imo If you're going to talk about contact, you need to look at type of contact: Winckowski: 56.5% GB% Santos (w/ Bos): 47.6% GB% K's not as important if you're keeping the ball on the ground. Winckowski has also slowed down a fair amount since a great May and very good June. His recent numbers aren't good, but are made moreso by a brutal 8/12 start in which he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits while recording just one out. It's not all about strikeouts.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 28, 2021 19:58:01 GMT -5
Man I honestly don't get your fascination for Winckowski 😅 Don't get me wrong, I love guys who don't walk people but that's just the only quality he has: He pounds the zone with his mediocre stuff. Yes his stuff is really, really mediocre. Just for reference: In Portland's pitching stuff only Matt Kent (82.1%) allows more contact than he does (77.4%). What's the risk here? Some team picks him and Stach him in their bullpen? Let them have him. There's plenty of minor leaguers with his skill set. His two former teams deemed him tradable for a reason. Think about it: The Phillies gave the Red Sox Victor Santos for CJ Chatham meaning they really don't value Santos at all and as you can see in the table below, they're pretty similar pitchers with Santos being maybe a tad better.
| Contact% | BB/9 | K/9 | FIP | Winckowski | 77.4 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 4.19 | Santos | 76.3 | 1.2 | 9.0 | 3.57 |
There's no way Winckowski gets protected next off-season imo If you're going to talk about contact, you need to look at type of contact: Winckowski: 56.5% GB% Santos (w/ Bos): 47.6% GB% K's not as important if you're keeping the ball on the ground. Winckowski has also slowed down a fair amount since a great May and very good June. His recent numbers aren't good, but are made moreso by a brutal 8/12 start in which he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits while recording just one out. It's not all about strikeouts. OK, there's a lot to unpack here: First of all, where did you get those GB% numbers? Because FanGraphs has him at 51% and MinorLeagueSplits.com has him at 50%. Not that it matters really because studies has shown that GB% go down when climbing the ladder. photo arHeck, you can see it following Winckowski yearly splits: He was generating 60% groundballs in rookie ball to begin his professional career. Second, please tell me you're not talking about his ERA when you wrote that he has a "great May and very good June" because, as you know, ERA isn't predictive. His K/9 in May is an averageish 8.37/9 and it's really really bad in June (3.96/9)! If you define a 23 yo k'ing less than 4 AA batters per 9 innings as "a good mont"h, I don't think we evaluate prospect the same way.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 28, 2021 20:05:20 GMT -5
First of all, where did you get those GB% numbers? Those are from our site, which for 2021 are the Ground Outs vs. Air Outs metric that shows up in the box scores. There's another source that gets more granular into the balls-in-play data, which is likely what fangraphs is showing.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 28, 2021 23:11:36 GMT -5
Let the cleansing begin... I loved April Andriese. Couldn't stand him the rest of the year though. One of the reasons the Sox got off to a flying start was that both Andriese and Whitlock were coming into games in the 5th or 6th and were giving quality long relief innings that really saved them. That's kind of what I would envision for Houck and Whitlock in the playoffs (beyond a wild card game) with the hope that Sale/Eovaldi/E-Rod/Pivetta are the post-season starters and that Whitlock wouldn't be needed to be an 8th inning setup guy as I'd hope Brasier can come back and contribute (he's busy shaking off that rust in AAA and getting hammered, but it's to early to give up hope on him helping). I loved April Andriese too. Those were some of the most carefree and weightless days (and nights) of my life. The way the sun shone through her peasant's dress in the bleachers and her skin smelled of perfume even when she wore none. Like ripening wheat after a spring rain. I knew it wouldn't last when she bought that pink Sox cap, thinking I would love her all the more but she never could figure out how to add a pitcher's innings totals together. I sometimes wonder what might have been, if life hadn't thrown us such a curveball but I'll always hold the memories of that impossible dream season.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 29, 2021 21:12:26 GMT -5
I wonder if Muñoz gets claimed when they DFA him
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 29, 2021 22:05:40 GMT -5
I wonder if Muñoz gets claimed when they DFA him I kind of doubt it. He never walks and doesn't have enough power to make up for that. He'll be back in Worcester and will probably start next year there too, if he re-signs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2021 6:49:56 GMT -5
Muñoz does have an option, so they don't necessarily have to DFA him.
Not saying they won't but it's not as obvious as if he didn't have the option.
Brasier is apparently up and will be activated soon. That means 2 40-man spots when Arroyo and Kiké get activated. Potentially a third when Bazardo's rehab ends mid-september (or sooner if they want him up).
Interesting that Danny Santana has been playing mostly 1B (I think) on his rehab.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 30, 2021 9:39:59 GMT -5
Muñoz does have an option, so they don't necessarily have to DFA him. Not saying they won't but it's not as obvious as if he didn't have the option. Brasier is apparently up and will be activated soon. That means 2 40-man spots when Arroyo and Kiké get activated. Potentially a third when Bazardo's rehab ends mid-september (or sooner if they want him up). Interesting that Danny Santana has been playing mostly 1B (I think) on his rehab. Five games in nine days thus far. Four DH, one 1B.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 30, 2021 9:54:53 GMT -5
Muñoz does have an option, so they don't necessarily have to DFA him. Not saying they won't but it's not as obvious as if he didn't have the option. Brasier is apparently up and will be activated soon. That means 2 40-man spots when Arroyo and Kiké get activated. Potentially a third when Bazardo's rehab ends mid-september (or sooner if they want him up). Interesting that Danny Santana has been playing mostly 1B (I think) on his rehab. I wouldn't be shocked if Franchy gets DFAed. Munoz deserves a spot on the 40 man roster more than him at this point.
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Post by Coreno on Aug 30, 2021 12:38:04 GMT -5
Muñoz does have an option, so they don't necessarily have to DFA him. Not saying they won't but it's not as obvious as if he didn't have the option. Brasier is apparently up and will be activated soon. That means 2 40-man spots when Arroyo and Kiké get activated. Potentially a third when Bazardo's rehab ends mid-september (or sooner if they want him up). Interesting that Danny Santana has been playing mostly 1B (I think) on his rehab. I wouldn't be shocked if Franchy gets DFAed. Munoz deserves a spot on the 40 man roster more than him at this point. Based off what?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 30, 2021 17:15:59 GMT -5
I wouldn't be shocked if Franchy gets DFAed. Munoz deserves a spot on the 40 man roster more than him at this point. Based off what? Yeah, I don't see that either. You have to crane your neck to see Franchy's ceiling (granted, he hasn't often offered many glimpses yet), whereas Munoz can touch his without getting on his tippy toes. I think Munoz and Santana are DFAed when Arroyo and Enrique are ready. If they accept assignments in Worcester, both may simply be released in the winter or before, as Chaim continues to tinker with the depth.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 30, 2021 20:54:35 GMT -5
Obviously dependent on performance but wonder if Espinal sticks. They could've called somebody up who they know would've cleared waivers but elected not to
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2021 6:56:45 GMT -5
Well remember that he has all 3 options remaining. He doesn't necessarily need to stick in MLB.
They'll activate Renfroe today. Santana and Brasier are your 27th and 28th players tomorrow. So the question is who they option today from the Araúz/Muñoz/Valdez/Espinal group.
The question then becomes what they do when the 4 COVID guys get activated. They'll be at 39 once they add Brasier.
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